Equites
FTSE to find difficulty maintaining levels above 7000FTSE has bounced smartly from above the 6676.56 monthly low of 4 November, with prices now pressuring the 6956.70 retracement.
Extension to congestion around 7000 is highlighted from rising momentum studies, but any further gains are expected to prove difficult to maintain, as the Tension Indicator, (not shown), continues to weaken and investors maintain a cautious stance. A close above 7000, however, would improve sentiment and open up highs towards the critical 7129.83 high of October.
Support is raised to congestion around 6800, but a close below the 6615/76~ lows is needed to confirm continuation of the October bear trend and turn investors bearish once again.
Persimmon (PSN LN) ahead of earnings (2nd Nov)Tomorrow brings the earnings of UK home builder Persimmon.
UK home builders have performed well in recent times with the UK government backing the housing market with expansion plans. In terms of recent broker recommendations UBS, Credit Suisse and Canaccord have all upgraded to company within the last 4 months.
* The weekly chart is showing bullish hammer candles.
* On the hourly chart we are at a relatively low level.
* On the Daily chart we support at the upward trendline.
* Could see resistance at the downward trendline on the linked chart.
* In regards to Volume the VPOC (Oct) is at around the 1726.13 area, do not be surprised if this is a support level.
* Oct high of 1892.65, Low of 1648.88 and highest amount of contracts exchanged (Value) 1725.30
R4 1648.88
R3 1831.04
R2 1787.93
R1 1735.39
Current 1731.00
S1 1720.63
S2 1648.88
USDJPY up move. Start of risk on regime?Apart from the commentary in the chart, if this pans out, this would also likely mean a global risk on rally. So we may look forward to strong and sustainable rallies in equities across markets. Yields may go higher for US treasuries. This ties up well with the steady Fed rate hike scenario as well.
Reverse head & shoulder formation in UK100 remains at forefrontOur long term bias in UK100 remains positive and this week has got off to a good start with a very solid move higher.
Last week we noted a morning star formation to target a move higher and this has played out nicely.
With BOE hinting at further rate cuts and the continued quantitive easing strategy supporting the long side, further upside is expected.
We look to set longs at current levels to target a move towards 7002 (161.8% fib extension), previous swing high at 7100 and the reverse head & shoulder measured move target of 7340.
Risk to this trade is a break of 6600.
Onesavings – Pressing into key hurdle, overbought daily RSIOnesavings has jumped more than 10% to 271p as the group, which offers residential mortgages and buy-to-let loans reported a 36% increase in the first half profits to GBP 64.6 million.
On the daily chart –
Prices are attempting a break above critical resistance of 271.65 (May 11 low).
The odds of a failure to break higher/hold above 271.65 are high given the overbought daily RSI. The money flow index too is almost hovering into overbought territory.
Hence, profit taking could result in a dip to 260-250 levels before the share gathers steam for a more sustainable move above 271.65 levels.