Get started

Equity

SPX Momentum Fading?Semi-monthly returns are the highest since March 31. Upward momentum has been strong, but it's looking like it could fade and the price could possibly retest 4000 where either support or resistance will be established. Sentiment is so mixed at the moment that I am fairly certain this will play out. Just look around at the severe contrast in sentiment. People are betting their portfolio on this hinge and it's not clear who is correct, or if anyone is correct. Lately, one could trade either direction and they would have a chance to take profit within the next few weeks or month. The question is, will bearish sentiment linger on or will we get a huge fakeout to the upside? It's a hard question to answer, but if we monitor DXY and commodities we will be able to see some hints in the next week or two. Good luck and don't forget to hedge your bets!
CME_MINI:ES1!
by fringe_chartist
8
Bull Wedge In Stocks?Stocks are tending toward the upper bound of the value area, forming what appears to be a bull wedge. We have been flirting with higher levels in the 4000's established from a value area formed back in June. We seem to have a hard upper bound at 4178, but the Kovach OBV is still strong, suggesting that we have a bull divergence. If we break out, then 4188 will provide resistance. If we can break through that, then 4214 is the next target. We should have support from 4122, then there is a vacuum zone to 4068. If that does not hold, we should have strong support at 4009.
FX:SPX500Long
by quantguy
2
SPY in a downtrend? Where's Top? THE ANSWERS!Chart: SPY 2 week TF. The answers are both in the chart and below. SPOILER: If SPY rallies to $800, the downtrend is still valid. Interesting: A downtrend is defined as LOWER lows (LL) and LOWER highs (LH). Uptrend? as HL's and HH's. ** A single HIGHER high (HH) invalidates a downtrend trend in that TF. Trend is relative to TF and can be valid in one TF but invalid in another. A HH is established when the previous HH is superseded by a new candle's _____________ (fill in the blank). Answer: It's the new candles **close** that takes out a previous high, **not** its own high. Once that condition has been met the new High is promoted to the status of HH. Important: SPY's 1 week down trend was invalidated when the HH of $393.16 established on the 28th of June, 2022 was taken out by the close of $395.09 on Friday, July 18th, 2022. Chart: 2 week downtrend is still valid and the current 2W candle closes in 5 days. (8/12/22) The trend remains valid if that close is below the previous HH of $417.44 established on June 2nd 2022. Very important: *** The high of (this) week is not relevant to the 2W downtrend. Only the candle Close on Friday (8/12/22). Implication (not opinion): If SPY rallies to $420, the downtrend is still valid. If SPY rallies to $500, the downtrend is still valid. If SPY rallies to $600, the downtrend is still valid. If SPY rallies to $800, the downtrend is still valid. ... *as long as* price falls back to $417.44 by EOW. The point: ... idk. Ask me in 2 weeks. Where is "top"?: It's the price where the last bear goes long (aka covers). In other words when there is not a single buyer left. ** Starting with Homma Munehisa, (1755) The Fountain of Gold—The Three Monkey Record of Money. to the more contemporary: Al Brooks, (2009) "Trading Price Action Trends" .. and everyone in between.
AMEX:SPY
by gb50k
1
The S&P 500 Edges HigherThe S&P 500 has broken higher, barely edging past 4144, our previous high. We are curently just below the next level at 4178. We are starting to run into resistance here from previous highs in mid June, confirmed by red triangles on the KRI. If we can break out further, we must get past 4188 before we can consider the next level at 4214. The breakout looks labored and the KRI is relatively flat, so there is a high probability of a retracement, unless we see strong momentum at open. If so, watch for 4068 to provide support, but beware of the vacuum zone below to 4009.
FX:SPX500Short
by quantguy
Sideways Correction in StocksThe S&P 500 has retraced slightly from highs at 4144, testing support at 4068, as we anticipated yesterday. We are seeing good support from 4068. We appear to be forming a sideways corrective pattern, a technical corrective phase after a rally from the 3K's brought us back to highs not seen since June. It is likely we will hold this range until stocks can muster another breakout. If that is the case then we must break through 4144 before we can attempt highs from June's range at 4188. If we retrace further, watch the vacuum zone to 4009.
FX:SPX500
by quantguy
VXX (VIX ETN) hints yet again of increasing volatilityRushing this out before market opens... The VIX index is rather special (to me) and it is not feasible to use usual technical analysis on that chart IMHO. So, I use the VXX (VIX ETN) for a better idea when volatility spikes might occur. Am observing one just now with an apparent alignment of weekly adn daily factors in the charts. On the weekly chart, noted that there was previously a bullish divergence where the VXX kept going lower whilst the MACD (left lowest bottom panel) crept up. Noted that when we had the MACD crossover, the following week(s) come with volatility spikes. There is an early indication that we might see a MACD crossover this or next week, suggesting that August would be volatile. The candlestick formed last week gapped up, attempted to close the gap, but closed at the high. This is a rather bullish candlestick, and an identified wedge breakout just might happen this week. The daily chart uncannily bears (pun not intended) a similar pattern, but with more details, as the last day of last week closed in a similar looking candlestick, along with a gap up (that attempted to close and reopened), as well as a MACD crossover. These MACD crossovers in 2022 have been marked, last posted about this on 12 Feb 2022, which saw a period of higher volatility. Then formed the identified wedge, and bouncing off the wdge support twice, this time, it suggests that volatility is about to spike, and would probably breakout of the wedge. Taken together, this uncanny alignment forewarns of clear and present volatility for the weeks to follow... Having said that, I suspect that this is might be a short and sharp spike that could end the bearish status for a couple of months until we get into 2023. That's another discussion altogether. Meanwhile, hold on to your pants, be ready for the volatility storms!
CBOE:VXX
by Auguraltrader
1
Stocks Retrace After Hitting Our TargetStocks have hit our target of 4144, but ran into resistance here. The price action swiftly rounded off, forming a top at this level. We have since retraced back into the vacuum zone between 4122 and 4168. We should have further support at 4068, but if we retrace further then there is a vacuum zone below to 4009. The Kovach OBV has ticked downward with the retracement. We will need more momentum to punch through 4122 and 4144 before we can consider higher levels at 4178 and 4188, which are the next targets.
FX:SPX500Short
by quantguy
1
Can Stocks Continue Their Rally??Stocks have broken out and hit our next level of 4122. We are meeting steep resistance here confirmed by red triangles on the KRI. The Kovach OBV has lifted, and its clear that momentum has returned at least for now. It is likely that the markets think that the Fed may adopt an easier policy now that we are formally in a recession. If momentum continues, 4144 is the next target, then 4178 and 4188. If we retrace, then we have a vacuum zone below to 4068 then 4009.
FX:SPX500Short
by quantguy
SPX ~6000 if this time is not differentThe SPX chart has 2 goals and one constraint: Demonstrate the VIX / VVIX ratio as an inverse momentum indicator for SPX. The VIX is risk adjusted" by VVIX and the ratio is more useful than VIX alone. "Useful" is similar to 'Statistical Power' and means less data required to identify smaller changes amidst higher volatility. Suggest that an ATH of SPX 6000 is "not unreasonable" considering the pattern and magnitude of prior large moves (corrections, bear markets, and very large dips) . . . Unless this time is different.
TVC:VIX
by gb50k
2
Can The S&P 500 Break Out??The S&P 500 has broken out to the upper bound of the range, at 4009. After the uncertainty from the Fed was lifted, and we received our 75bps rate hike, stocks were clear to rally. However, as we anticipated, there was little action yesterday, and they are still respecting the range we identified. We made a brief attempt to rally into the vacuum zone above, but momentum quickly faded and we retreated to support around 4009. The Kovach OBV has picked up, so if stocks can break out further, there is a vacuum zone above to 4068. Watch for momentum at open. If it does not come through then we are likely to retrace deeper into the value area between 3909 and 4009, with 3909 an anticipated floor for now.
FX:SPX500
by quantguy
Stocks Range Ahead of FOMCThe S&P 500 is ranging near relative highs. We broke out into the 4000's, but fell short of 4009. Several red triangles on the KRI are confirming strong resistance at these higher levels. We have some support from 3909, and a break down could take us back to the mid 3800's, likely 3848 or so. A rally could test 4009 again. We expect the S&P to respect this range, and don't expect too much action from the FOMC today, as the markets have largely priced in a 75bps hike to combat inflation with a small probability of a 100bps rate hike, the largest hike since 1989 .
FX:SPX500
by quantguy
Trader thoughts - make or break time for US equity marketsAfter the bullish breakout of the multi-month wedge pattern, as well as the upside break of the range highs, we’re seeing better two-way flow and consolidation in the US500 – On the daily, we’re yet to see a bearish MA crossover (3-EMA vs 8-EMA) and the 5-day ROC is still positive, which keeps me holding a modest bullish bias, but we’re back testing the former breakout at 3912. It’s make-or-break time, and while the current price on our charts represents the strong after-hours performance from Microsoft and Alphabet, the bulls need the index to push through 4000 – where potentially we can see a trend develop. Options market makers are short gamma, and while the S&P500 futures bid-offer spread has improved, the same can’t be said for depth at touch price and the propensity to move the market causing exacerbated moves on any size orders is there. US earnings are coming in rapidly and with 30% of the S&P500 having now reported Q2 earnings, we’ve seen 70% beating on EPS and 60% on sales. Sounds impressive, but this is modestly below the long-term trend in beats – analysts are always low-ball in their calls. We haven’t yet seen sizeable consensus downgrades to FY EPS assumptions and maybe that comes, but its hard to have a fundamental conviction that we’ve seen a definitive low in the equity market until consensus earnings have been cut – we know it’s coming, it’s a matter of when and how severe. In the session ahead we get numbers from Meta platforms in the post-market trade, where the implied move on the day (priced from options) is 12.6%, as well as QUALCOMM (implied move of 8%). Apple (5.1%) and Amazon will potentially move the dial tomorrow – so if trading the index or individual equity, make sure you’re in front of the screens between 6:00 am and 06:30 am AEST. It could get lively. The other big factor is the FOMC meeting (Thursday 4 am) and Chair Powell’s presser. Last month the US500 fell 2.8% in the following 6 hours from the FOMC statement, although this statement should be about nuance, than sweeping changes. From a central bank system liquidity perspective we know the Fed’s QT program ramps up to full capacity in September and this means excess reverses will likely fall – this has typically resulted in a headwind to equity markets, and if the liabilities on the Fed’s balance sheet turn lower again then I suspect the NAS100 and US500 will follow. So, there are many reasons to think we’ve not hit a low and that we turn back through 3800 supports, but price is true and if the buyers can build then we could see trending conditions. As always, be open to whatever will be will be.
PEPPERSTONE:US500Long
by Pepperstone
10
Stocks Pulling Back, Awaiting FOMCStocks have retraced from relative highs at 4009. We have several red triangles on the KRI indicating some stiff resistance at 4009 and 3978. Volatility has consolidated quite a bit, which is understandable before the FOMC, today. Note that some sources are predicting a 100bps hike, but it should come in at least 75bps. This is largely priced in, but we should anticipate some volatility either way. We should have support at 3909 or in the 3800's. If we are able to break out we must first definitively break 4009, then there is a vacuum zone to 4068.
FX:SPX500Short
by quantguy
Rejected! Next Stop Point Of Control!When taking a look at the S&P500 on the Daily TF, we can see that there was a clear rejection from the Volume area high (Blueish line above). The next stop will be the point of control (Red line). Most of the market does follow this chart so before you short, double-check their chart. Every day the charts provide new information. You have to adjust or get REKT. Love it or hate it, hit that thumbs up and share your thoughts below! Don't trade with what you're not willing to lose. Safe Trading, Calculate Your Risk/Reward & Collect! This is not financial advice. This is for educational purposes only.
SP:SPXShort
by rnaofs
Stocks Hit ResistanceThe S&P 500 broke out, testing and rejecting 4000 as we anticipated Friday. We identified 4009 as a likely target, and the S&P 500 hit this perfectly, before retracing a bit. We are seeing the price action round off and potentially a small head and shoulders pattern forming, so watch for a retracement, which could present a buying opportunity. We should have support from 3937, a relative high if so. If we are able to break out again, there is a vacuum zone to 4068, which would be our next target.
FX:SPX500Short
by quantguy