Get started

Equity

Will Stocks Breakout Soon??Volatility in stocks has continued to consolidate, and we are broadly forming a pennant pattern. We are seeing consistently lower higs, starting from 4214, which is the level we must break before attempting higher levels. The neckline of our failed inverse head and shoulders pattern at 4068, seems to be providing good support, and lows have recently tended just above this level. The Kovach OBV is still fairly flat, so we will need a lot more momentum to properly break out. We must break through 4214 before we can consider higher levels and hit our next target of 4306. If 4068 fails to provide support then 4009 is our next level of support.
FX:SPX500
by quantguy
S&P 500 Consolidates the Range SlightlyThe S&P 500 has continued the range between 4068 and 4214 or so. The upper bound of this range seems to be waning, with lower highs possibly suggesting we may be forming a bear wedge or flag. Either way, volatility does seem to be consolidating slightly, which in the long run portends a breakout. The Kovach OBV is drifting up, which may signify a bull divergence, potentially giving bulls some hope. Keep in mind there is a vacuum zone below 4068, which is the neckline of our inverse head and shoulders pattern that failed early May. If we break this, we are clear to test the lows of the 4000 handle again.
FX:SPX500
by quantguy
AAPL/USD Daily TA Cautiously BearishAAPL/USD Daily cautiously bearish. *AAPL has just experienced a Death Cross (50 MA below 200 MA). Equities and crypto are both down again, as fears of a recession are currently being amplified by low unemployment + low growth + inflation and a very hawkish (and fashionably late) Fed.* Recommended ratio: 25% AAPL, 75% Cash. Price is currently trending down after being rejected by $149 minor resistance; the next support is at $138.46. Volume remains moderate and has favored sellers in three of the past four sessions. Parabolic SAR flips bearish at $135.74, this margin is mildly bearish. RSI is currently trending down at 45.39; the next support is at 35.61 and the next resistance at 57.58. Stochastic crossed over bearish in today's session and is currently trending down at 88, the next support is at 70.77. MACD remains bullish and is currently trending up slightly at -3 as it is beginning to form a soft peak just below -2.36 resistance. ADX is currently trending down at 20 and is beginning to form a trough as Price is falling down after a resistance rejection; this is neutral but can switch to bearish if it can confirm a trough formation accompanied by continued Price depreciation. If Price is able to bounce here, it will likely retest $149.05 minor resistance. However, if Price continues to break down then it will likely retest $138.46 support (which may coincide with the lower trendline of the Ascending Channel from January 2019). Mental Stop Loss: (two consecutive closes above) $149.05.
NASDAQ:AAPL
by dailytaguy
Stocks Test Relative HighsStocks caught a strong pivot off of our relative low. The relative low of 4068 is significant because it coincides with the neckline of the failed inverse Head and Shoulders pattern from last week. We saw strong support from this level as confirmed by a double bottom with two green triangles on the KRI. We are not quite ready to call a bottom for stocks and a subsequent bull rally, but the fact that 4068 is holding is encouraging. We noted yesterday that our target for stocks was 4219, which we anticipated to hold as a ceiling for now. Sure enough, stocks are testing highs, falling just shy of our target at 4188. The Kovach OBV has picked up, but not enough to suggest there is much more in the tank. But if we are able to break 4219, then 4306 is the next target.
FX:SPX500Short
by quantguy
Stocks Finding Support?Stocks have retraced, hitting our exact target of 4068 and finding support. Recall that this was the head of the inverse head and shoulders pattern that failed mid May. Failed inverse H&S patterns are usually bearish omens and stocks were in the doldrums for basically the rest of May. However toward the end of the month, we were able to break out, but 4068 remains a strong level. We were able to make a run for 4200, but met resistance and retraced. Currently we are ranging in the vacuum zone between 4068 and 4122. The S&P 500 may attempt to establish here. If we retrace further watch the vacuum zone below to 4009. The high just below 4214 should serve as a ceiling for now.
FX:SPX500Long
by quantguy
SPX/USD Daily TA Neutral BearishSPX/USD Daily neutral with a bearish bias. *Janet, Jerome and Joe all got together yesterday and it's fair to say they all agree they want more pain before more gain ("do anything it takes to bring down inflation"), and they want it mainly to be done through monetary policy (Fed). Fed also started rolling off TS and MBS today.* Recommended ratio: 40% SPX, 60% Cash. Price is currently trending down at $4100 after being rejected by $4175 resistance on the first test. Volume remains moderate and is on track to favor sellers for two consecutive sessions. Parabolic SAR flips bearish at $3869, this margin is neutral at the moment. RSI is currently trending down at 50.24 after getting rejected on a retest of 52.68 resistance. Stochastic is currently crossing over bearish at 91. MACD is currently testing the uptrend line from March 2020 at -44 after breaking out above -76.22 minor resistance. ADX is currently trending down at 23 as Price is attempting to continue rallying, this is mildly bullish at the moment. If Price is able to bounce here then it will likely retest $4175 resistance before attempting to test the upper trendline of the descending channel from November 2021 at ~$4400. However, if Price continues to break down here then it will likely retest the lower trendline of the descending channel at $4000 before potentially falling lower. Mental Stop Loss: (two consecutive closes above) $4175.
SP:SPX
by dailytaguy
Momentum Fades for StocksStocks appear to have topped out for now just under our level at 4214. We've since retraced, finding support at 4122, just above the vacuum zone to 4068. We are seeing several green triangles on the KRI which confirm the support. It seems that stocks are ranging and establishing value between 4122 and 4178. Optimistically, we might be forming a bull flag pattern, however the Kovach OBV has slumped, suggesting we will need more momentum to come through to break out of it. If so, we must break through 4214 before we can hit our next target of 4306. If support does not hold, watch the vacuum zone below to 4068.
FX:SPX500
by quantguy
Stocks Surge as China ReopensThe S&P 500 has broken out of the malaise it has held all of last week. China seems to be reopening which has investors breathing a sigh of relief. After the inverse head and shoulders breakdown, we saw tremendous resistance and stocks were in the doldrums, hovering in the 3800-3900 range with 4K a hard upper bound. The neckline of our failed inverse H&S pattern provided strong resistance as we had predicted all of last week. Finally, we were able to break out from this level, smashing through our previous targets at 4122 and 4144, and reaching a new relative high just above 4200. We are starting to face resistance from a congestion zone from the end of April, confirmed by a red triangle on the KRI just below 4214. We are finding support at 4144, and should see continued support from 4122, but if not, we are set to cross the vacuum zone to 4068, the neckline of our failed inverse H&S pattern. The next target is 4306, a relative high from the very beginning of May.
FX:SPX500Long
by quantguy
us500 SPX500 Long - Bitcoin Crypto Crash will pay for the pump Hi Traders, The more skilled traders have made money from shorting the Crypto markets. Where will the money go? The money flow shows its heading back into equities. Buy the US500 and target a new ATH while everyone is scared. the Bitcoin / crypto correlation to equities is breaking as well which is a huge alarm Please like my idea and follow me if you agree or like my ideas. Even post a simple comment, this will really help me continue.
SP:SPXLong
by TheBitcoinWizard
1
Stocks Meet Resistance EXACTLY at Our Level!!The S&P 500 has broken out from the upper 3000's and made a run for higher levels. We faced pretty steep resistance from 3978, about the midpoint of our failed inverse head and shoulders pattern. We noted that failed inverse H&S patterns are usually a bearish sign, and we have been in the doldrums all week. We also noted several times that the neckline of the failed pattern would provide significant and prohibitive resistance. This is exactly what we are seeing. Though the S&P 500 has broken out, it is currently facing resistance exactly at the neckline at 4068, confirmed by two red triangles on the KRI. The Kovach OBV has trended up, but tapered and flattened with the resistance. We will need more momentum to break through. If so, the next targets are 4122 and 4144. If we retrace, then 3978 should provide support again.
FX:SPX500Short
by quantguy
PLTR/USD Daily TA Cautiously BullishPLTR/USD Daily cautiously bullish. *It's become rather apparent that even after an 85% drop from its ATH, investors still aren't done selling . Taking a closer look at their financials and it's clear that they are a tech growth company that intends to be here for a while but face the reality that they may be operating in a high interest rate environment for a year or more. Financials summary: negative income since going public due to arguably egregious spending on Selling/General/Admin Expenses (that exceed Gross Profit which is $1.20b); Shareholder Equity is at $3.32b as of Q1 2022 and they have maintained minimal debt since IPO; lastly, they started producing Free Cash Flow last year in their fourth year being publicly traded and continued to do so in Q1 2022. So even though they have a healthy balance sheet and are generating positive cash flow, growth companies are often faded in favor of value companies in rising/higher interest rate environments, which helps to explain a lot of the negative sentiment.* Recommended ratio: 65% PLTR, 35% cash. Price is currently retesting $8.52 minor resistance after bouncing from the lower trendline of the descending channel from November 2020. Volume remains moderate (low) and fairly balanced between buyers and sellers as of late but is currently favoring buyers for two consecutive sessions. Parabolic SAR flips bearish at $7.13, this margin is neutral at the moment. RSI is currently trending up at 42.48 but is still technically testing the uptrend line from 01/27/22 as resistance at ~40; if it can continue surging, the next resistance is at 46.81. Stochastic crossed over bullish in today's session and is currently trending up slightly at 93 as it tests 89.92 resistance; the next resistance is max top. MACD remains bullish and is currently trending up at -0.90 as it quickly approaches -0.81 resistance. ADX is currently trending down slightly at 39 as Price is attempting to establish a short term bottom, this is mildly bullish. If Price is able to break out above $8.52 minor resistance, the next likely target is a test of $10.44 minor resistance. However, if it gets rejected here then it will likely retest the lower trendline of the descending channel from November 2020 as support at ~$7.31 before potentially heading lower. Mental Stop Loss: (two consecutive closes below) $7.39.
NYSE:PLTR
by dailytaguy
SPX/USD Daily TA Cautiously BullishSPX/USD Daily cautiously bullish. *The VIX is heading down, USDX down, Gold down and for the first week in years, crypto is decoupling from equities as it has gone down while equities have gone up. Risk-on investing is starting to lose favor in crypto due to a multitude of reasons but mainly because most market speculation was concentrated in crypto. What is shaping up to be a Bear Market Rally, that may very well run into next month, will face a big challenge when the Fed begins to reduce their balance sheet of security holdings (treasury and mortgage-backed securities) on June 1st and the FOMC releases a statement after they regroup on June 14-15 regarding another funds rate hike (Fed is committed to at least a 50 bp rate hike in both June and July).* Recommended ratio: 70% SPY, 30% cash . Price bounced off of $3939 (second time in eight sessions) and is currently on the verge of testing the lower trendline of the descending channel from August 2021 as resistance at ~$4090 (also for the second time in eight sessions). Volume remains high (moderate) and is on track to favor buyers for a second consecutive session. Parabolic SAR flips bearish at $3813; this margin is neutral at the moment. RSI is currently trending vertically at 48 as it quickly approaches a formal retest of 52.68 resistance. Stochastic remains bullish and is currently trending up at 83 but is still technically testing 76.29 resistance. RSI remains bullish for a second consecutive day and is currently trending up at -84.13 as it quickly approaches -76.22 minor resistance. ADX is currently trending down at 28.42 as Price is surging, this is mildly bullish at the moment. If Price is able to breakout above the lower trendline of the descending channel from August 2021 at ~$4090, then the next likely target is a test of $4175 resistance before potentially moving higher. However, if Price is rejected at ~$4090, it will likely retest $3938 minor support before potentially falling lower to $3706 minor support. Mental Stop Loss: (one close below) $3938.
SP:SPX
by dailytaguy
Stocks Tepidly Pull HigherStocks have drifted upwards, testing the upper bound at 3978. This is roughly the midpoint of the failed inverse head and shoulders pattern that we have been referencing the past few reports. Recall that such a failure in this pattern is a bearish sign for stocks, and what we are witnessing is to be expected. The S&P 500 has been in the doldrums and can barely muster the strength to test the midpoint of the pattern, let alone the neckline of the inverse H&S at 4068, which will continue to be a barrier even if we can muster a rally. On the downside, 3825 should remain a lower bound for now.
FX:SPX500Short
by quantguy
S&P 500 Unable to Clear 4000Stocks have been wavering at lower levels and just can't seem to break 3978. This is a technical level, about midway through our inverse head and shoulders pattern. This lackluster behavior is to be expected as the break down from the inverse H&S pattern is a very bearish sign, and portends strong resistance if we do try to inch back up and test highs. The neckline at 4068 will be an incredibly difficult barrier, as we are clearly seeing. We should see support from around the level corresponding to the 'head' in the low 3800's. If not, we are clear to test the 3700's.
FX:SPX500Short
by quantguy
Stocks Still WobblyStocks have made an attempt to recover from Friday's selloff, but we have met strong resistance at 3978, about midway through the failed inverse head and shoulders pattern. We noted that this is a very ominous sign for stocks and in the past, from which it will be difficult to recover. It also suggests that 4068 (the necline of the inverse H&S) will be a very tough level to break, and currently, the S&P 500 does not seem to have the momentum to even test this. The Kovach OBV is extremely bearish, suggesting we are due for a relief rally. However if the selloff continues, expect support at 3810 again.
FX:SPX500Short
by quantguy
SPX/USD Daily TA Neutral BearishSPX/USD Daily neutral with a bearish bias. *St. Louis Fed President James Bullard said he remains committed to a 3.5% fed funds rates at the end of 2022 with potential for rate decreases in 2023; Fed Chair Jerome Powell also said Fed would not hesitate to raise rates beyond what is considered "neutral" until inflation comes back down; unemployment remains low but economic growth is slowing and inflation is rising, so the case for stagflation isn't necessarily getting weaker.* Recommended ratio: 45% SPY, 55% cash. Price is currently testing $3938 minor support-turned-resistance after briefly touching $3800. Volume remains moderately high and has been fairly balanced between buyers and sellers for the past six sessions. Parabolic SAR flips bullish at $4035, this margin is mildly bullish. RSI is currently trending up at 40.68 and is still technically testing 38.06 resistance; it should be noted that RSI recently defended support at both uptrend lines from August 2015 and January 2022, this is bullish. Stochastic remains bearish and is currently on the verge of crossing over bullish at 36.31. MACD remains bearish and is currently trending up at -107, if it can break above -103 then it would be a bullish crossover; the next resistance is at -76.22 while the next support is far below at -226. ADX is trending up slightly at 30 as Price is currently avoiding a breakdown to $3706, this is neutral at the moment. If Price is able to reclaim minor support at $3938 then the next likely target is a retest of the lower trendline of the descending channel from July 2021 at ~$4100 as resistance. However, if Price breaks down here, it will likely test $3706 minor support before potentially heading lower to $3508 minor support. Mental Stop Loss: (two consecutive closes above) $3938.
SP:SPX
by dailytaguy
TWLO/USD Daily TA Neutral BullishTWLO/USD Daily neutral with a bullish bias. *Twilio has fallen 81% from its ATH ($457.65) and is approaching the end of a massive Falling Wedge from March 2021.* Recommended ratio: 55% TWILIO, 45% cash. Price is currently testing the lower trendline of the Falling Wedge from March 2021 at $100.65 support. Volume has been shrinking since early May as Price trades within the second largest supply/demand zone on the chart; this is mildly bullish as it is indicative of an incoming breakout (due to it being a Falling Wedge the bias is to the upside). Parabolic SAR flips bullish at $105, this is mildly bullish. RSI is currently trending down slightly at 40 as it continues testing 37.47 support for the sixth consecutive session. Stochastic remains bullish and is currently trending up at 85; the next resistance is at max top. MACD remains bullish and is currently trending up slightly at -10; the next likely target is a test of the descending trendline from May 2020 at -4.57 resistance. ADX is currently trending sideways at 33 as Price is attempting to establish support at $100, this is neutral at the moment. If Price is able to defend $100.65 support then the next likely target is a test of the upper trendline of the Falling Wedge at $120-$125 (this is also the largest supply/demand zone on the chart) before potentially breaking out of the formation to the upside. However, if Price breaks down below the lower trendline of the Falling Wedge at $92.60, the next likely target is a test of $70 support. Mental Stop Loss: (two consecutive closes below) $95.50.
NYSE:TWLO
by dailytaguy
Can Stocks Recover from Lows?Stocks have recovered from Friday's selloff. Though we have fully retraced from that dip, we remain under 4000, and well below the neckline of that failed head and shoulders pattern discussed last week. The fact that we broke down from the inverse H&S is foreboding and that we broke lower than the head (relative low) of this pattern is even worse. The Kovach OBV is extremely sold off, so we may have some hopes of a relief rally. If so, 4068 will be a formidable barrier to the upside. We should find support again at 3810 if we sell off further, but the next support level after that is in the 3700's.
FX:SPX500Short
by quantguy