Equity
Stocks Still Undecided as Ukraine Crisis IntensifiesStocks have retraced further from relative highs at 4408. It looked like we might have been gearing up for a bull run to test 4440, but geopolitical woes seem to keep weighing, and two red triangles on the KRI suggest that 4408 is providing prohibitive resistance for now. We have since retraced back to 4272, but seem to have good support there. Currently, we are seeing a brief pivot from 4272, which has brought us to the midpoint of this level and 4408. From here it could go either way, but it is likely we will need some resolve to the Russia/Ukraine crisis to break higher. If we sell off further and 4272 does not hold, then 4228 is the next relative low where we should expect support, then 4122. If we can break 4408, then 4440 is the next target.
Geopolitical Conflict Hits StocksStocks have begun to dip off of stepped up efforts with Russia to move in on Ukraine. Russian forces are close to the capital, Kyiv, and markets are reacting. We have strong safe haven inflows, as per bonds and gold, and the S&P 500 has just rejected a relative high at 4389. The Kovach OBV was increasing, but has curved over with the rejection. If we do find support at current levels, watch for a bull wedge or other bull consolidation pattern to form under 4389. If we retrace further, 4245 should provide support. If we are able to break out from 4389, 4440 is our next target, but this is not likely for today.
Inverse Head and Shoulders in Stocks??Stocks have picked up, but the markets have quite a bit to digest. The Ukrainian president is meeting with Russia to discuss terms, which may give the markets some hope to the resolution. However, sanctions are slamming Russian banks and the world is fearing oil supply issues. That being said, we appear to be seeing an inverse head and shoulders pattern forming with a neckline at 4364. The Kovach OBV has picked up tremendously from where it was when stocks were at lows this week. This suggest a bit of a bull divergence, and a potential breakout could take us to 4440. If we retrace further, we could test lows again at 4122 but 4245 is likely to provide support first.
Reverse Head and Shoulders Setup on SPX, Target at 4480Trend Analysis
The main view of this trade idea is on the 15-Min Chart.
There appears to be a reverse Head & Shoulders chart pattern setup on the S&P 500 Index. The Left Shoulder is seen around 4250 support level. The Head of the chart pattern setup is observed around the 4120 price level. This is initially seen as the lows of the current S&P 500 Index correction. The Right Shoulder is seen around the 4240 support level. The Neckline of the chart pattern setup is constructed from the lower highs of the 4360 and 4295 resistance levels respectively. This setup produces a target around the 4480 price level.
At the time of publishing the S&P 500 Index broke above the neckline and is currently rallying towards the 4480 target. A breakdown of this setup will be observed if the S&P 500 Index were to break below the neckline.
Recommendation
Given the current price levels. The recommendation will be to remain neutral until a buying opportunity arises.
Disclaimer
The views expressed are mine and do not represent the views of my employers and business partners. Persons acting on these recommendations are doing so at their own risk. These recommendations are not a solicitation to buy or to sell but are for purely discussion purposes.
Stocks Swing After Markets Weigh Russian SanctionsStocks had a wild ride yesterday. We sold off to 4122, where we found support and retraced the entire move back to 4293, over a hundred points, before retracing a bit to the mid 4200's. This degree of volatility in the stock market makes it difficult to foresee what today or next week has in store, but we may be starting to form a massive inverse head and shoulders with a neckline in the mid 4200's. The Kovach OBV has picked up from lows suggesting there is real buying happening as stocks bottomed out. If this is the case, then we can expect the S&P 500 to make a run for 4364 again, then 4440. If not, we could retrace the entire move back to 4122, but this seems less likely.
What the Russian Invasion of Ukraine Means for StocksStocks have plummeted after Russia attacked Ukraine. We were seeing an inverse head and shoulders type pattern forming with a low of about 4272, but strong bear momentum smashed through this level and headed down further into the 4100 handle. Currently, we are finding support at 4122, where a green triangle on the KRI is providing support. After that, there is a vacuum zone to 4068, then 4009, the very last level in the 4000 handle. It is likely stocks will try to jostle for footing, so expect some volatility today. We could retest 4272 again, but that is most likely the ceiling for today.
S&P500 - LongsOANDA:SPX500USD
Currently being supported by the 200 moving average, we are seeing outbreaks of the war talks with this morning we have seen, Russian troops attacking Ukraine.
Historically, we can see that buying invasions and wars like this is generally profitable with the S&P rising dramatically during; Vietnam war, Gulf war, afghan war, Iraq war and Crimean crisis.
I will be watching price action for long term buys, I believe we will see all time highs in equities by summer this year (June/July 2022).
EOG Breakout, Target 115Trend Analysis
The main view of this trade idea is on the 2-Hour Chart. The stock EOG displayed 2 bullish instances over the last couple of months. The first occurred during July to September 2021 where the stock made a reverse head and shoulders chart pattern. The completion of this move took EOG back above its long term trend. The 2nd instance materialized when EOG approached the June 2021 resistance at around the 88.25 price level. It appears that the stock has broken above this resistance. Expectations are for EOG to rally towards the 115 price level. Failure of this will be known if EOG declines back below 88.25
On the Daily Chart EOG appears to be making another leg higher, with resistance seen around 115.
Technical Indicators
EOG is trading above its long term MA and the Supertrend is in bullish mode, complementing the bullish nature of the chart. The Awesome Oscillator is above 0 and green.
Recommendation
The recommendation will be to go long at market, with a stop loss at 87.50 and a target of 115. This produces a risk/reward ratio of 2.62.
Disclaimer
The views expressed are mine and do not represent the views of my employers and business partners. Persons acting on these recommendations are doing so at their own risk. These recommendations are not a solicitation to buy or to sell but are for purely discussion purposes.
NAS100 to Rally Towards 17200Trend Analysis
The main view of this trade idea is on the 2-Hour Chart. The NASDAQ 100 Index (NAS100) is currently testing resistance, after declining a little over 8% in the month of September into early October. In mid-October NAS100 broke the downtrend trendline and steadily rallied back towards 15720 resistance. A clear breakout from this resistance level established in early September should take NAS100 towards 17200. A failure in this potential breakout will be known if NAS100 declines to 15260.
On the Daily Chart NAS100 is making a leg higher with the uptrend intact.
Technical Indicators
Currently NAS100 is trading above its short (50-MA), medium (100-MA) and long (200-MA) term fractal moving averages. There have been positive crossovers on these MAs, indicating a bullish trend. The RSI is also above 50 with the KST making a positive crossover. These technical indicators are implying that the uptrend for NAS100 will continue.
Recommendation
The recommendation will be to go long at market, with a stop loss at 15260 and a target of 17200. This produces a risk/reward ratio of 2.99.
Disclaimer
The views expressed are mine and do not represent the views of my employers and business partners. Persons acting on these recommendations are doing so at their own risk. These recommendations are not a solicitation to buy or to sell but are for purely discussion purposes. At the time of publishing I have exposure to the NAS100.
Russell2000 Held at 2100 Support, Counter Trend Move to 2280Trend Analysis
The main view of this trade idea is on the 15-Min Chart.
Support appears to have held at around the 2100 for the Russell 2000 Index (US2000). This is corroborated by the US2000 crossing above its medium term (195-MA) moving average. Also the Supertrend broke above its 2146 resistance above the last trading session. When observing the technical indicators there is a unique pattern on the Awesome Oscillator (AO) and the RSI. There is positive price divergence with the indicators. The AO is above 0 and the RSI is greater than 50. It is expected that US2000 rallies towards the 2280 price level. Failure of this move will be seen if US2000 declines below 2100.
The Point and Figure chart as well is showing a bullish reversal. Support is seen around 2110 and the Index rallied above its short (30-MA), medium (100-MA) and long (200-MA) moving averages. There are also positive crossovers with the short and medium as well as short and long term MAs. The AO is above 0 with the RSI trading above 50.
The longer term view remains corrective for the US2000. Resistance is observed around 2185.
Recommendation
The recommendation will be to go long at market, with a stop loss at 2100 and a target of 2280. This produces a risk/reward ratio of 1.70.
Disclaimer
The views expressed are mine and do not represent the views of my employers and business partners. Persons acting on these recommendations are doing so at their own risk. These recommendations are not a solicitation to buy or to sell but are for purely discussion purposes. At the time of publishing I have exposure to US2000.
Can Stocks Break Out??Stocks have been struggling to find footing in the wake of Russia tensions. As we mentioned before, stocks found support at 4272. A green triangle on the KRI confirmed the support here. We are currently attempting a bit of a pivot from here, with 4364 providing resistance for now. We are seeing a (rather messy) inverse head and shoulders type pattern here with a "neckline" at 4364. If we are able to break out from this, we will surely see resistance at 4440, then 4580. The Kovach OBV still is not convinced of any bullishness at this point, and is remaining at lows for now.
Stocks Selloff with Russia TensionsStocks turned sharply lower as the Russia/Ukraine crisis has escalated. Putin has sent troops to separatist regions in the Ukraine and the UK and EU have suggested to respond with sanctions. We have retraced the range fully, testing 4272 once more. Recall that this level has been in our reports all this month, so you should have been prepared. We are seeing support here at 4272, and appear to be attempting a pivot from this level. However the Kovach OBV is still bearish, suggesting that we may be seeing some headwinds. Our next target is 4364, then 4440. We should continue to have support from 4272 in the event of another selloff, but if that breaks, then 4245 is the next level where we can expect support.
Nasdaq at support levelNasdaq on support level
Better to buy this dip
For next bull run 🏃
More easy money
More money printing
More debt
Economy
Free fall
Weekly Trendline FailTSLA has decisively broken its weekly trendline to continue bouncing along its Bear Channel walls
US10Y - Make or break?!TVC:US10Y
US10Y at a very make or break level right now, personally I see more downside for stocks!
Stocks Dive but Find SupportThe S&P 500 has retraced from relative highs at 4487, reentering the previous value we identified yesterday. Recall that we asserted yesterday that if stocks retraced, they would likely enter the value area between 4272 and 4440. We do appear to be finding support roughly in the middle of this range, just above 4364, where we saw support Monday. Stocks could be feeling out a new value area between 4364 and 4487, relative highs. The Kovach OBV has curved over, suggesting that momentum has dried up for now. If we continue our descent and break through 4364, then 4272 is sure to provide support. If we see a rally, then we must break 4487, then 4580 is the next target.
$NIO update charthaven't really traded stocks for a min
watching how this plays out as FTX has it listed
Stocks Range, Anticipating Russia/Ukraine DevelopmentsStocks are ranging after inching past resistance at 4462. The S&P 500 was able to break this level of strong resistance but just barely, encountering resistance at the next level at 4487. We met resistance here confirmed by several red triangles on the KRI, and then retraced back to support at 4431. The Kovach OBV has leveled off completely suggesting it could go either way from here. The markets are clearly not convinced that the Russia/Ukraine saga is nearing a close. If we retrace further, we will reestablish the value area between 4272 and 4440. If we see a burst of momentum, then we must clear 4462 again, then the next target is 4521. After this we must solidly break 4580 before considering higher levels.
All Eyes on Russia Tensions as Stocks Edge HigherStocks have risen a bit off alleviated Ukraine/Russia tensions. Troops have apparently pulled back, though several Ukrainian government institutions have been hacked, which adds some ambiguity to the overall picture. We appear to have an inverse head and shoulders type pattern forming off recent lows, as we penetrated the value area between 4440 and 4272. We have made an attempt to break through to higher levels but 4462 is currently providing resistance confirmed by a red triangle on the KRI. Watch momentum at the North American open. If we are able to see another burst of momentum, we could make a run for highs in the value area above, where 4580 is likely to provide resistance and prove to be a ceiling for now. The Kovach OBV has picked up notably, but does appear to be weakening as we meet resistance.
HERMES-STRATEGIC MEDIUM/LONG TERM BUY !Following the sharp decline (-30.85 %), since the ATH @ EUR 1678.00 reached on December 1st, 2021, the price action triggered an HAMMER (reversal pattern) coupled
with a RSI BULLISH DIVERGENCE, which is a first positive signal calling for a trend reversal towards higher levels.
Important to also note that a potential DOUBLE BOTTOM is in progress (first bottom having been reached on October 1st, 2021 @ 1'166.50 !
Today's ongoing price action (long white candle) is, for the time being confirming this reversal and a closing level, on a DAILY BASIS, ideally above the Tenkan-Sen or Conversion line (@ 1'257.80) would
add further support to this expected bullish scenario.
IMPLICATIONS :
UPSIDE :
Once this first resistance level will be broken, focus will be on the second resistance area (cluster of both Kijun-Sen or Base line (1288) and the MId Bollinger Band-(1298) -"my own Barometer !", for further development
(on this daily time frame, BULLISH above and BEARISH below the Mid Bollinger Band (MBB).
The ongoing downtrend resistance line (in red), currently around 1'380 would be the next resistance level to look at ahead of the Daily clouds area (currently very thin) and close to the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement @ 1480.50.
A clear upside breakout of the top of the clouds would reopen the door for a new attempt of ATH.
DOWNSIDE :
Former low @ 1'160.50 is the first support to look at and any dips towards this level should be seen as consolidative move in a new uptrend.
Main focus will remain on the WEEKLY CLOUDS SUPPORT AREA (1'200-1'025) with intermediate support @ 1'097,00 this level being the 50% Fibonacci retracement of the big rally which started @ EUR 516.00 in March 16, 2020
CONCLUSION :
HERMES is a diamond, very well managed and fundamentally exceptional !
Therefore, STRATEGIC LONG EXPOSURE SHOULD BE BUILT FROM CURRENT LEVEL AND ON DIPS AS A REAL VALUE ADDED ON ANY PORTFOLIO.
Tensions Easing? Stocks Get a LiftStocks have gotten support from 4364, roughly the midpoint of the range they were holding between 4272 and 4440. We have since broken through that high and attempted 4462, the next level above, where we are currently meeting resistance, confirmed by a red triangle on the KRI. Perhaps this rally follows news that some Russian troops have returned to base, and the Ukranian tensions may be easing a bit. The Kovach OBV has picked up ever so slightly, but if we cannot break through to higher levels, we should see the bear rout return, and test 4440 again, or break lower into the previous value area once more. We still anticipate 4272 as a floor for now. The next major target is 4580 if bull momentum returns.
Russia Tensions Hit StocksStocks have tanked off Ukraine/Russia tensions. We were holding the value area between 4462 and 4580 last week, but have smashed through the lower bound of this range and have reentered the value area between 4272 and 4440. The Kovach OBV has dropped significantly, but appears to be leveling off as the S&P 500 clamors to find support. A green triangle on the KRI signifies some support around 4364 or so. If we continue the rout, then 4272 should be the lower bound. If we pick up momentum, then 4440 and 4462 are the targets to watch.
