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Four Reasons Why Stocks Might RetraceStocks rallied all last week, in the proverbial 'Santa Claus Rally'. The S&P 500 bottomed out at lows at 4545, and spanned almost two full handles since then. Currently, we are ranging just below highs. The Kovach OBV has completely flattened. The fact that we are near highs, have little momentum, are close to the end of the year, and are still grappling with Omicron worries (including canceled flights), suggests that we may anticipate a dip in stocks into the beginning of this week. We should support at 4693 and 4668, if we do see a retracement. We will see if the holiday exuberance kicks in again this week, but a retracement is highly likely in the mean time. Our next target for stocks is 4763.
FX:SPX500Short
by quantguy
Three Reasons Stocks Slid. When to Buy Back??Stocks have sold off hard, as we warned yesterday. This is a typical risk as stocks had just barely eeked out highs, and more momentum was necessary to sustain the rally. We have retraced significantly, but still within our projections from yesterday. The S&P 500 has given up the 4700 handle, and is currently seeing support from a cluster of levels in the mid 4600 handle, including 4668 and 4649. We are seeing strong support at this latter level confirmed by several green triangles on the KRI. If we break down further, we have one more level to provide support at 4632, but then we have the vacuum zone we've been warning about down to 4580. If we break down to this level, it may be a good idea for a long trade, but keep an eye on the news. Several factors have led to selloff in stocks, and we will see if these factors persist a risk off tone today. Investors seem to be shifting from growth stocks to value stocks, and this has taken its toll on the tech sector in particular. Additionally, omicron fears seem to be reigniting globally, and we have the reality of the Evergrande default setting in as well, though this was largely priced in.
FX:SPX500
by quantguy
3
Stocks Roar on Fed DecisionStocks showed weakness going into the FOMC meeting, but despite the hawkish outlook: tapering and 3 rate hikes in 2022. The markets have totally priced this in, and as a result stocks rallied to new highs. We anticipated stocks to rally for this reason, but the extent of the rally was formidable. We have punched through 4729, and are heading toward our next target at 4763. The Kovach OBV has turned up sharply, but is starting to curve over, as the S&P does appear to be losing steam. We should have another burst of momentum as we approach the open. If so, that should be more than enough to take us to our target of 4763. After that, we are likely to range a bit in a sideways correction as we establish value in the new price area. Watch for support at 4729, 4693, and 4668.
FX:SPX500Long
by quantguy
Stocks Edge Lower Ahead of FOMCStocks dipped further into negative territory as we antipated yesterday. The S&P 500 briefly dipped into the vacuum zone we identified between 4632 and 4580, but it was able to recover quickly, and is currently clinging to support at 4632. We are seeing several green triangles on the KRI, suggesting support is forming. We anticipate stocks to range a bit before the FOMC and from there, we will see how the markets interpret the data. Some hawkishness is expected, with persistent inflation putting the Fed in a difficult spot. If they come out more hawkish than expected, we could easy punch through the vacuum zone to 4580 or below. If they are less hawkish than expected, or even dovish, then we could recover highs. It is doubtful that we will make new highs today, but the next target is 4763.
FX:SPX500
by quantguy
2
Stocks Slide from HighsStocks took a sharp dive from highs as we predicted yesterday. We anticipated this because the S&P 500 was maintaining an extremely narrow range at highs, from which we would have required significant momentum to break out. We simply didn't see that, and the risk sentiment turned south later in the day, hence the selloff. We first saw support from 4668, then 4649 (where we are currently seeing support), both levels we have identified here for you. The last level in this cluster is 4632, then we have a vacuum zone to 4580. The Kovach OBV has taken a notable dip, but does appear to be starting to level off. It is likely that we will not see much action today, in anticipation of the FOMC statement tomorrow, so anticipate support and ranging in this cluster of levels identified. But if the selloff continues today, watch that vacuum zone to 4580.
FX:SPX500
by quantguy
1
Can Stocks Rally Again??Stocks have edged up to highs, hitting our exact level at 4729. The level 4668 provided good support on Friday's small retracement. The Kovach OBV is drifting higher, but this indicator seems weak with respect to the rally, and so we anticipate some resistance at these highs. If we do retrace then 4693 and 4668 should provide support. If we are able to break out, then 4763 is the next target. This level is a Fibonacci extension level from Fibonacci levels anchored on the upper and lower bounds of last night's move. We are starting to get into the holidays, so we will see if stocks have the strength for one more breakout before traders sign off for Christmas break.
FX:SPX500Long
by quantguy
Stocks Drift Lower Ahead of CPIStocks have been subtly trending downward after topping off just under highs at 4729. The 4700 handle did not hold very long and we quickly declined back to comfort in the 4600 handle. We are currently seeing support at 4668, and have a long way to go to retrace this rally, should momentum peter out. The Kovach OBV has flattened as we await CPI data. Watch out for CPI data this morning. Higher inflation has been a persistent worry for the past few months, and it does appear to be factored in, but a large deviation from expectation could certainly still move the markets. The Federal Reserve is in a difficult position, potentially being forced to raise interest rates on an already shaky economy to combat inflation. If we see more forward guidance from Powell, this will definitely have an impact on stocks. The S&P 500 does have support from levels below in the 4600 handle, but below those, there is a vacuum zone to 4580.
FX:SPX500
by quantguy
Stocks Awaiting Key Macro DataStocks seemed to have topped off just below highs. Persistent risks like the impending Evergrande default, Fed tapering, and Omicron seem to be completely shrugged off. However we do appear to be in a sideways correction between 4668 and 4729. We are seeing both green and red triangles on the KRI corresponding to the upper and lower bounds of this range and suggesting a narrow band for the price action for now. Tomorrow is a big data day, as we will have CPI and Michigan Consumer Sentiment. It would make sense for stocks to hold the range in anticipation of this data. But if we do break out, 4729 should provide resistance. If we break down from this range then there is a cluster of levels below ending at 4632. Watch the vacuum zone below that to 4580.
FX:SPX500
by quantguy
Potential Breakout in SPX Towards 4800Trend Analysis The main view of this trade idea is on the 4-Hour Chart. The S&P 500 Index is now 9.6% higher off the 4300 lows in early October 2021. Currently the index is in a rangebound movement between the 4630 and 4718 price levels. Expectations are for the index to breakout. Given the width of the rangebound movement, the S&P Index should rally towards 4800. Failure of this move will be observed if SPX falls below 4650. On the Daily Chart the move in the SPX continues to be constructive, with some support observed around the 4650 price level. Technical Indicators Based on several technical indicators, the S&P 500 Index is trending higher. The SPX is currently above its short (50-MA), medium (100-MA) and long term fractal moving averages (MAs). These MAs also have had positive crossovers after the SPX found support around 4300 and began rallying. The RSI is also trading above 50 and the KST is in a positive zone, indicating bullish sentiment. Recommendation The recommendation will be to go long at market, with a stop loss at 4650 and a target of 4800. This produces a risk/reward ratio of 1.37. Disclaimer The views expressed are mine and do not represent the views of my employers and business partners. Persons acting on these recommendations are doing so at their own risk. These recommendations are not a solicitation to buy or to sell but are for purely discussion purposes. At the time of publishing I have exposure to the SPX.
OANDA:SPX500USDLong
by Ceddy86
Can Stocks Make Highs Again??Stocks have rallied for two straight days, breaking through several levels of resistance. We have spanned almost two handles, from 4500 to 4600, and are facing resistance just below 4700. In particular, we are starting to see the price action round off around resistance at 4693. The Kovach OBV has turned up notably, but appears to be rounding off with the price action. Stocks are looking top heavy with this rally somewhat a surprise in the face of consistent fears such as Omicron, Fed tapering, inflation and the supply chain. If we do retrace, then we have a cluster of levels below in the 4600 handle to provide support. Watch the vacuum zone below 4632 down to 4580. If momentum continues, then 4729 is the next target.
FX:SPX500
by quantguy
Tesla Did you buy when I told you to ? What now ? Hi everyone: Tesla broke all time highs and hits $1000. In June I posted and mentioned about the next bullish impulse phase is likely to happen once a continuation correction is finished. Price indeed impulse up after, and now it above all time highs. This is good for further upside potential. What the market is likely to do now is fall into another consolidation, as another bullish correction is likely to develop, before the next upside move. So be patient here, buying here right away may be risky, and best option is to wait for the next continuation correction to form, and take the next impulse move up. Thank you
NASDAQ:TSLALong
by jojofang0901
22
Stocks Make a Run for Relative HighsStocks got a lift yesterday as investors turn hopeful again after Omicron fears subside. We broke resistance at 4580, and crossed the vacuum zone after that to 4632. Currently, we are testing higher levels, 4652 in particular. This is a relative high, and area with which the S&P has had some trouble in the past. The Kovach OBV has picked up notably, however. If momentum does continue, we should find resistance from 4668, 4693, then there is a vacuum zone to 4729. These cluster of levels should provide resistance and if momentum peters out we could easily retrace back to 4580.
FX:SPX500Long
by quantguy
Stocks hit by New Wave of FearStocks are edging lower in a zig zag pattern as every rally seems to get sold off. We have more risk off sentiment in the markets as Evergrande takes its turn as the center stage of fear stoking news. Evergande shares have tumbled as another debt payment deadline looms. We saw strong resistance from 4580, but rejected this, as confirmed by a red triangle on the KRI. We are roughly in the middle of a range between this as 4504. It could go either way, as we are still quite bearish and could see a relief rally. But we must definitively break 4580 in order to cross the vacuum zone above to 4632, which seems unlikely. From below, we should see support from 4504, then 4487 and 4462 would be the next targets.
FX:SPX500Short
by quantguy
1
Stocks Waiting for NFP DataStocks have attempted a meager rally, as news of the Omicron strain and Fed tightening seems to have been digested by the markets. We do have non farm payrolls data coming in at 8:30 AM EST, which is one of the biggest trading data points, so stocks are likely to hold off in anticipation of the results. This is a particularly meaningful reading, as investors look for a barometer on the faltering economy. We are seeing resistance from 4580, as this is a particulary auspicious level. We have a vacuum zone above this back to 4632. From below, we should see support from several levels below. Lows at 4504 should be considered a min lower bound for now. The Kovach OBV is very bearish, despite a rally attempt by the S&P 500, but we will need to wait for US jobs data this morning before it decides a direction.
FX:SPX500
by quantguy
1
Leading Indicators are BURNTAs forewarned, the Leading Indicators were previously pointing to a burn out, and now half of the leads are burnt. JNK and VALUG are bearish, as are TLT and VIX indicating bearishness. IWM, TIPS, and DJT have failed any bullish indication, skewing towards bearishness. The S&P500 futures are at support now... likely to break down, even for the beginning of a month. Overwhelmed by the "shock" of a new variant, perhaps it is time. IMHO, Omicron is a precursor... it should be mild, but its existence is indicative of the next wave. So, not to be ignored, and especially not to be forgotten. This is like Nature's forewarning of 2022. Stay safe!
CME_MINI:ES1!Short
by Auguraltrader
1
Three Reasons to Be Bearish of StocksThree factors are weighing in on stocks lately. We have the persistent boogeyman of the new Omicron coronavirus strain that is vaccine resistant and has been weighing on global markets all this week. Also, Fed Chair Powell has made some hawkish statements about rates and tapering in response to inflation. Finally, the OECD has voiced a gloomier outlook for the US and Europe on account of persistent inflation. Hence, stocks plunged further breaking support at 4580, but bottoming out at 4564, the level just below. We are seeing a green triangle on the KRI here confirming support, and are currently getting a lift at the time of this writing. We've bounced through the vacuum zone and appear to be running out of steam just under 4632. This level will prove formidable, and we have several levels to break after that before considering highs again. The Kovach OBV is still very bearish, but this could indicate that we are oversold and confirm the relief rally we are seeing right now. If support levels don't hold, 4545 will be the next target from below.
FX:SPX500Short
by quantguy
How to Trade Stocks as Omicron WeighsCoronavirus fears continue to weigh on stocks. In particular, the Moderna CEO predicts less effective vaccines for the Omicron variant, and this has sent stocks back to lows despite an attempt at a rally, yesterday. We made it as high as 4668, which we have identified as a new technical level, before falling back to lows, which appear to be holding for now, perhaps by a thread. A green triangle on the KRI does appear to be suggesting we are finding support here at 4580, but are not really seeing much of a bounce. If current levels don't hold, we could see support at 4564, 4545, or 4504. Watch for stocks to make another bounce and perhaps form a bear wedge with a lower bound at 4580 before cracking it. If we do catch a bid, then 4632 and 4649 need to be broken before we can consider higher levels again.
FX:SPX500
by quantguy
1
ABNB 4H - BullishOversold RSI, MACD slowly approaching trend reversal signal, the price currently testing resistance, and green bullish candles. Will we see the breaking of resistance in the near future? Here's how I would trade ABNB 4H: Enter a long position - if a valid break of current resistance occurs. Take profit ideas: TG1 - 189$ TG2 - 197$ TG3 - 203$ TG4 - 208$ TG5 - 216$ TG6 - 224$ ------------------ I keep it simple and clean! Likes, comments, and follows are dearly appreciated. Let me know what you think and which ones you would like for me to analyze next. Trade safely! ------------------ About Airbnb: "Airbnb, Inc., together with its subsidiaries, operates a platform for stays and experiences to guests worldwide. The company's marketplace model connects hosts and guests online or through mobile devices to book spaces and experiences. It primarily offers private rooms and luxury villas. The company was formerly known as AirBed & Breakfast, Inc. and changed its name to Airbnb, Inc. in November 2010. Airbnb, Inc. was founded in 2007 and is headquartered in San Francisco, California." Source: Yahoo Finance
NASDAQ:ABNBLong
by Droz_TA
Fundamental and technical analysis of ''American nightmare''...Fundamental analysis 1. Valuation: The company is expensive based on almost all valuation metrics such as PE or PS, however the guru focus model estimates that the company is ‘’fairly valued’’, while the 2 stage free cash flow model estimates that the fair value of AMZN share price should be around $5,500. 2. Growth: $AMZN remains a solid growth story. Analytics at wall street forecast both earnings and revenue to grow at a double digit pace in the upcoming years. 3. Profitability: The profitability metrics of the company are good. In addition $AMZN is extremely cash rich and the CAPEX/Sales ratio (12.43%) is well above sector median (2.42%). 4.Financial position: Excellent. Debt and interest payments are well covered. 5. ESG rating: BBB or average. There is definitely some room for improvement in this space. 6. Dividend & Buyback: $AMZN is not paying dividends to its’ shareholders and doesn’t repurchases its’ common stock at the moment. Technical analysis: The stock remains in the uptrend and finally the share price broke above 2900-3500 consolidation zone. Bulls will be very supportive at around 3350-3500 price in my opinion.
NASDAQ:AMZNLong
by GIgor_021
Omicron Variant Weighs on StocksStocks plummeted off of renewed coronavirus panic over the Omicron variant, with 23 different spike proteins. It is currently evading all vaccines, and poses 'very high global risks' as per the WHO. This new boogeyman has permeated through the markets and we are likely to see lower levels in stocks until the risk has been priced in. Today is the Monday after the US holiday, so the markets are likely to jostle for direction over this issue. We smashed through the 4600 handle, finally finding support at 4580, where a green triangle on the KRI confirmed the support. Currently, we are testing 4632, and 4649, but the Kovach OBV is still very bearish, so it would be fomo to pile into a long trade at this point. We should see continued support from 4580, but if this does not hold, we have a cluster of levels below to provide further support down to 4545. The next target will be 4693 if we catch a bid, but we have to break 4649 first.
FX:SPX500
by quantguy
2