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Reviewing my last trade for 2021: $TRT 25%ish gainLuckily, I ended up 2021 with a win. It was a modest one but given how tough the trading environment was back in December for the long side (likewise in the start of 2022), I'm thankful that I was able to pull off a W. Let's review it $TRT is the ticker of the trade. First entered the trade back in December 7, 2021 (1st Green Arrow) at $9, when it proved strength. Cut was $7.20 Was a little challenged by this trade given it didn't move right away as I expected it to. When it retraced, I gave myself two options: follow the original cut or exit the position early and buy it back in case stock proves me wrong. Decided to go for the latter and went out of the position last Dec 13, 2021. (1st Red Arrow) I was proven wrong. I went back in TRT on Dec 15 (2nd Green Arrow), again when it showed strength and added more when it slightly corrected (Multiple Green Arrows). Me being proven wrong by the stock earlier gave me more confidence to size this bigger compared to the initial engagement. Used the 5 Day Moving Average to trail my profit when I was ahead. Was initially targeting $15 but it never happened. TRT retraced to my trail profit, putting me out of the trade at $11.40 with a 25% gain (2nd Red Arrow). Expected more but can't complain. A nice end of year bonus. Takeaways from this trade: Always be ready and be patient for your A+ setups to manifest. Zooming out, the area pattern traded is an ascending triangle, a bullish area pattern Hope you learned a thing or two. Thanks and good luck out there!
AMEX:TRT
by kevvela
Stocks Selloff, Cling to Lower Levels in the 4600's4729, but this level seemed prohibitive for stocks, and we sold off from there slicing through 4693 with ease, but finding support at 4649. We made a brief attempt at a pivot, but 4668 is proving to be an obstacle as a red triangle on the KRI has confirmed resistance here. The Kovach OBV has dropped off notably into bearish territory, but is starting to level off. We will need to see more momentum here before we can test the 4700's again. If so, the next target is 4729 again. If the bear rout continues, then we should have support from 4632, but after that, we have a vacuum zone down to 4580, which has provided support during the sharp selloff on the 10th, and is likely to continue to hold.
FX:SPX500Long
by quantguy
1
Breakout Soon for Stocks??Stocks have gained some steam as the markets are graadually digesting the Fed and inflation. We have hit our price target of 4729, and broken above this level briefly to test the next level of resistance at 4763. We saw some red triangles on the KRI just below this level confirming that is an upper bound for now. We appear to be consolidating around 4729, which suggests that stocks are gearing up for their next move. Watch the momentum toward open. If we are able to sustain another rally, then 4763 is the level to watch as the S&P attempts to claw back highs. We should have plenty of support from below in the event of a retracement, with 4693, 4668, and 4649 the first levels to provide support in the 4600 handle.
FX:SPX500Long
by quantguy
4
Stocks Edge Up After Pricing in the FedStocks have edged up after the markets are gradually digesting a more hawkish Fed. We have seen good support from 4580, and a strong pivot from that level, and have blasted up to regain the 4700 handle. Currently, we are testing 4729, the first level in the 4700 handle from below. A red triangle on the KRI is confirming some resistance there. We will need to wait until the open to determine if we have enough steam in the tank to press higher. If so, the next level is 4763, which is the lower bound of the range the S&P 500 near highs. This was the range from which we broke down after ranging for several days. The final target remains 4821, the upper bound of the range, which must be broken before we can consider making new highs again. There are several levels below to provide support including 4693, 4668, 4649, and 4632. These should provide support but if they do not hold, then 4580 should serve as a floor for now.
FX:SPX500Long
by quantguy
Stocks Selloff, Quickly Regain Value AreaStocks faced a steep selloff yesterday, sailing through the vacuum zone below the 4600's, to find support exactly at our level at 4580. From there, we caught a nice pivot back to value in the 4600's. This is a strong sign for bulls who were hoping to see a bottom in stocks soon. The fact that it was bought up so quickly, suggests we are trying to establish value in the 4600's. Once all the Fed hike and inflation data has been absorbed into the markets, then we are in a position to seek highs again. Currently, we are testing 4693, the last level in the 4600's, but a red triangle on the KRI is suggesting we are meeting resistance. The Kovach OBV is still pretty flat and hugging lows, but if we get another wave of buying, we could easily solidify the 4700's again, with 4729 and 4763 the next targets.
FX:SPX500Long
by quantguy
Stocks Hug Lows Ahead of Key DataStocks are establishing value near lows. We saw a brief attempt at higher levels, notably 4729, but several red triangles on the KRI confirmed resistance there. Subsequently, we have pushed lower with 4668 as the next level to provide support. We are holding a narrow range at the the moment between this level and 4693. We appear to be forming a bear flag or other consolidation pattern. The Kovach OBV is still quite bearish, so we could see another push lower, to test 4649, 4632, or 4580. If we catch a bid, then 4729 is the level to watch. We have inflation data and more comments from Fed's Powell today, so this could be a driver either way.
FX:SPX500
by quantguy
2
Why we Shouldn't Get Hopeful on Stocks... Just YetStocks are ranging at lows, after crashing down to the 4700's from highs in the 4800's. Sharp choppy trading established the current range between 4668 and 4729. Long wicks have tested the lows of this range, and the upper wicks seemed to make and attempt to break out, but a cluster of red triangles on the KRI has confirmed steep resistance at 4729. The Kovach OBV is still abysmally bearish, and does not seem to be showing signs of equilibrating (bottoming out). This could indicate oversold conditions and the fact that we may be in for an attempt at a relief rally. If so, we must break 4729, then the next level is 4763. The next level down is 4649 if we sell off further.
FX:SPX500
by quantguy
Stocks Plunge on Hawkish FedStocks have taken a sharp dip downward on hawkish fed minutes. We have blasted through 4729, but have found support around 4700, after testing the next level down at 4693. Dedicated readers should have been prepared for these levels. The Kovach OBV has dipped sharply, but does appear to be bottoming out, suggesting that we may be attempting to establish value around current levels. With soaring yields and higher interest rates, it is difficult to justify another run for highs, but if we do make an attempt, 4729 and 4763 are the next targets along the way. If the bleeding continues, then we will see support from a cluster of levels in the mid 4600's, then there is a vacuum zone down to 4580.
FX:SPX500
by quantguy
Next Target for SPX?? 📈🤑Stocks have pressed higher, with the S&P 500 eeking out new highs. We are within inches of hitting our target of 4821. We do appear to be running into some resistance as confirmed by two red triangles on the KRI. The Kovach OBV is still relatively flat, so we will need more momentum to definitively break our target at 4821. If so, the next target is 4854, identified by a Fibonacci extension level anchored at the current range. Watch for momentum at open, which will be necessary to punch through 4821. If we don't see that, then we can retrace back to support at 4763. This level seems to be holding quite strong, but if we retrace further, then watch 4729 or 4693.
FX:SPX500Long
by quantguy
Stocks Begin the New Year Strong💪Stocks started the year with risk on sentiment, finding support at 4763. We anticipated a bit more of a retracment, and posited that stocks could test 4729 or 4693, but the slight dip to support at the nearest level of 4763 seems to be all we've got for now. The S&P 500 is within inches of all time highs again, with 4821 as our next target. The Kovach OBV has leveled off near highs, suggesting that, for now, we don't have enough momentum to break out to new highs. Let's see how risk sentiment develops toward the open. For now, we should be able to hold the range between 4763 and 4821.
FX:SPX500Long
by quantguy
Stocks Retrace from Ranging At HighsWe finally saw a bit of a retracement in stocks. Three days of ranging finally broke down. We emphasized that the longer stocks hold a range at highs, the more likely they are to test lower levels. This is exactly what happened, as we tested the next level down at 4763. We are seeing support here as confirmed by a green triangle on the KRI. Further support should be seen at 4729, should be break down further, then again at 4693, but it is doubtful we will see levels this low today. It is more likely for stocks to range in the broad value area between 4763 and highs at 4821, though it is unlikely we will make new highs today either.
FX:SPX500
by quantguy
Stocks Hold a Narrow Range. What's Next??Stocks continue their very narrow range, with the S&P hugging 4800, just around all time highs. The Kovach OBV is completely flat, suggesting that the range should hold until we have some buying or selling interest. Watch the open for a heads up as to the direction for the day. The more we hold the range, the more likely a breakout is to occur either way. We have been anticipating a reasonable correction this week, with 4763 or 4729 likely targets for support. If the rally continues, and we definitely don't want to get in the way of this if it does, then 4821 is the next target.
FX:SPX500
by quantguy
Stocks Pause Below All Time HighsStocks have paused their massive rally which took all the indexes up to new highs this week. The S&P 500 has paused below our target at 4821, and flatlined, ranging as we anticipated yesterday. We were anticipating a range day, or a retracement after making new highs. There still appears to be an affinity for higher levels as stocks shrug off multiple risk factors. But if the markets get spooked one last time before we close 2021, then we will likely see support at 4763 and 4729. If we see another burst of bull momentum, then we could easily hit our next target at 4821.
FX:SPX500
by quantguy
Stocks Blast Off! What is the Next Profit Target??Stocks stubbornly refused to retrace yesterday, and saw a massive rally that blasted through our profit target at 4763. We anticipated a retracement due to a variety of technical and fundamental factors, but are seasoned enough to know not to get in the way of stocks when they are ripping. We still feel a slight retracement is in order before the New Year, but if not, 4821 is the next target. We are seeing a red triangle on the KRI at current levels, suggesting that we are facing resistance. A retracement could take us back to 4763, then 4729 and 4693 will be the next levels of support from below. The Kovach OBV is still pretty strong, but may be starting to level off suggesting at least a ranging period after Monday's rally.
FX:SPX500
by quantguy
Four Reasons Why Stocks Might RetraceStocks rallied all last week, in the proverbial 'Santa Claus Rally'. The S&P 500 bottomed out at lows at 4545, and spanned almost two full handles since then. Currently, we are ranging just below highs. The Kovach OBV has completely flattened. The fact that we are near highs, have little momentum, are close to the end of the year, and are still grappling with Omicron worries (including canceled flights), suggests that we may anticipate a dip in stocks into the beginning of this week. We should support at 4693 and 4668, if we do see a retracement. We will see if the holiday exuberance kicks in again this week, but a retracement is highly likely in the mean time. Our next target for stocks is 4763.
FX:SPX500Short
by quantguy
Three Reasons Stocks Slid. When to Buy Back??Stocks have sold off hard, as we warned yesterday. This is a typical risk as stocks had just barely eeked out highs, and more momentum was necessary to sustain the rally. We have retraced significantly, but still within our projections from yesterday. The S&P 500 has given up the 4700 handle, and is currently seeing support from a cluster of levels in the mid 4600 handle, including 4668 and 4649. We are seeing strong support at this latter level confirmed by several green triangles on the KRI. If we break down further, we have one more level to provide support at 4632, but then we have the vacuum zone we've been warning about down to 4580. If we break down to this level, it may be a good idea for a long trade, but keep an eye on the news. Several factors have led to selloff in stocks, and we will see if these factors persist a risk off tone today. Investors seem to be shifting from growth stocks to value stocks, and this has taken its toll on the tech sector in particular. Additionally, omicron fears seem to be reigniting globally, and we have the reality of the Evergrande default setting in as well, though this was largely priced in.
FX:SPX500
by quantguy
3
Stocks Roar on Fed DecisionStocks showed weakness going into the FOMC meeting, but despite the hawkish outlook: tapering and 3 rate hikes in 2022. The markets have totally priced this in, and as a result stocks rallied to new highs. We anticipated stocks to rally for this reason, but the extent of the rally was formidable. We have punched through 4729, and are heading toward our next target at 4763. The Kovach OBV has turned up sharply, but is starting to curve over, as the S&P does appear to be losing steam. We should have another burst of momentum as we approach the open. If so, that should be more than enough to take us to our target of 4763. After that, we are likely to range a bit in a sideways correction as we establish value in the new price area. Watch for support at 4729, 4693, and 4668.
FX:SPX500Long
by quantguy
Stocks Edge Lower Ahead of FOMCStocks dipped further into negative territory as we antipated yesterday. The S&P 500 briefly dipped into the vacuum zone we identified between 4632 and 4580, but it was able to recover quickly, and is currently clinging to support at 4632. We are seeing several green triangles on the KRI, suggesting support is forming. We anticipate stocks to range a bit before the FOMC and from there, we will see how the markets interpret the data. Some hawkishness is expected, with persistent inflation putting the Fed in a difficult spot. If they come out more hawkish than expected, we could easy punch through the vacuum zone to 4580 or below. If they are less hawkish than expected, or even dovish, then we could recover highs. It is doubtful that we will make new highs today, but the next target is 4763.
FX:SPX500
by quantguy
2