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Volatility Near Lows for StocksAfter plummeting in the second worst day ever (by some sources), the S&P 500 is attempting to stabilize. We appear to have bottomed out at 4306, and attempted a 100 point swing to 4408. We are seeing a great deal of volatility in between as stocks jostle to establish value. Currently, we are meeting some resistance at the 0.382 Fibonacci retracement level which does seem to align with some technical levels on the chart. Thus, we can expect steep resistance here. Watch the open, because it will take significant momentum to break through these. The Kovach OBV is still bearish despite the rally from yesterday, likely filtering out the 'noise' in the volatility. We should expect support from 4348, but if that does not hold, 4306 seems to be the min lower bound for now.
FX:SPX500
by quantguy
1
ChinaYesterday saw some significant moves in several key macro factors. The charts below detail the sharp escalation in China stress (at the national, rather than real estate sector specific level) & the impact that had on broader risk appetite in markets. The Evergrande story has been in motion for months. Up until yesterday, contagion had been restricted to immediate peers – Chinese real estate / financial names, a few Australian miners. What changed yesterday was the move in Chinese Credit Default Swaps (CDS). Sovereign CDS liquidity is poor but the signal is unmistakeable – markets moved this from an idiosyncratic story to one with potentially far broader ramifications. For the first time in a while the risk off move had a material impact on the credit markets – "European financial" & "high yield" bonds especially. Again, our models suggest this is very much a statistical abnormality. The spike in VIX was a significant move on Qi models. VXEEM, VDAX (implied volatility measures for emerging markets and the DAX respectively) & the gold/silver ratio experienced similar moves. What next? China is the epicentre of current market moves & your view on how the Evergrande story unfolds is critical. China bears will see these factor moves as a genuine re-pricing. If so, Qi can high-light those markets that are lagging versus the new environment. In times of stress it is more important than ever to quantify relationships between asset price & the macro environment. LOOK UP™
TVC:VIX
by UnknownUnicorn25542523
V-Shaped Recovery for Stocks??After their meltdown yesterday (second worst in history by some sources), stocks have pared back losses, retracing just above the 50% Fibonacci retracement level of the entire move. Indeed, we appear to be seeing the typical 'V-shaped recovery'. We will see if further developments in the Evergrande saga can sustain current levels or if we will have another selloff. It looks like 4408 is providing resistance, confirmed by a red triangle on the KRI indicator. The Kovach OBV is rounding upwards, but not quite proportional to the recovery rally so we could see further resistance here. Watch for conviction at open to determine if we will continue to retrace this selloff, or if selling will continue. We could also establish value at current levels as the markets digest more news.
FX:SPX500
by quantguy
Stocks Plummet 📉😨Stocks have plummeted from the news that Evergrande, one of China's largest real estate developers, may file bankruptcy. This would effectively make them "China's Lehman Brothers". Risk sentiment is extremely risk-off right now. Stock indexes world wide have plummeted. The S&P has sliced through the 4400 handle with ease. We should have support from 4364 and 4350. If we catch support at these levels, we could retrace back to 4408, which would be roughly a 50% retracement of the selloff.
FX:SPX500Short
by quantguy
1
$VRTX HTF ACB LongWeekly Swing Watchlist Couple great looking opportunities this week, otherwise equities look pretty quite with the broad sell offs we have seen. I am already at full risk after entering two trades last week so I will be sitting on my hands for now. #1 Main Watch $VRTX HTF ACB L Monthly - 0.50 Fib/Decel/50 ema Weekly   - Support/MACD/Double bottom Daily      - Support/MACD/Double bottom/Descending triangle/Decel/Wave 5 completion LTF        - Break out of descending triangle/MACD/Double bottom Entry      - Waiting for 1HR close above 50 ema RR          - 10 (Previous M/W highs) Management - Long term Additionally on Watch: Main: $PENN Daily IBO L Other: 6 stocks on this weeks development needed list 23 stocks on monthly watchlist (mostly in Tech & Health Care sectors) Live Trades: $OEG - Full Risk $AMC - 0.5% Profit locked in $MASS - Full Risk $VUZI - Full Risk $Z - Full Risk
NASDAQ:VRTXLong
by JSiminoski
Volatility in StocksVolatility has permeated stocks, but it does appear that 4440 is a bottom for now. We have attempted a 50% Fibonacci retracement of the selloff from highs, falling just short at resistance at 4487. We appear to be attempting to establish value in this broad range, and are currently testing support at 4464. The Kovach OBV is somewhat oscillatory, but appears to have bottomed out for now. The 50% Fibonacci level at 4492 will provide resistance, but after that, the next major level is 4505.
FX:SPX500
by quantguy
Stocks Get a LiftStocks have caught a bit of a lift from lower levels. We have reached as low as 4440, before catching a bit of a lift that brought us back almost to a 50% Fibonacci retracement of the entire bear move. We finally met resistance at 4487. The Kovach OBV has picked up notably, but has since slumped over. Be careful about this move, it could just be a relief rally into an overall bear trend. After all, September is a notoriously slow month and we still have some news events that could be of concern. If we continue to see momentum, 4505 would be a great target, as it is the 0.618 Fibonacci level and the first major level of the 4500 handle.
FX:SPX500
by quantguy
SONY breaking out for the chargeBeen consolidating for a while but finally broke the bearish structure recently and is starting to head north towards to key areas of resistance. Already got a position from the consolidation but looking to possibly add to the position if we retest that upper band of the previous consolidation. Ideally not a fan of buying into resistance but it seems to have some momentum from below so, could have some legs and my original position is already well in profit.
NYSE:SONYLong
by DeNomics
1
Stocks Slump Even After CPIStocks have opened the week by continuing a steady decline. To an extent, this is to be expected, because September is typically a slow month in the stock market. However, the CPI miss yesterday should suggest that we are to see the Fed walk back statements about tapering, which should be good for our portfolios. Due to this, we expected more of a risk on day yesterday. But a series of downgrades sent us to lower prices. We are finding support at 4440, and there is a cluster of levels below, down to 4421. If we do catch a lift, there is a vacuum zone to 4487. The Kovach OBV is quite bearish, but may have bottomed out, suggesting that we might see some life in stocks this morning at open.
FX:SPX500Long
by quantguy
Malaise Setting In for Stocks??Stocks are finding support at 4462, after some volatility. It does look like we are stabilizing about this level for the moment, after making a run for support at 4440. September is usually a month of malaise for stocks, but we will see if we can get one more burst of risk on in beforehand. If so, we could test 4487 or 4504. The Kovach OBV is pretty bearish at this point, which may be a sign that we are oversold and due for a relief rally, even if it is just a brief respite. We still have a way to go before all time highs, and must cross 4521 and 4545 first.
FX:SPX500Long
by quantguy
Momentum Due for Stocks?? 📈Stocks tumbled Friday, taking us to lower levels of support. We have identified these in the last report and we have tested these levels to the tick. In particular, we saw support at 4487, before testing 4462 which appears to be holding for now, confirmed by a green triangle on the KRI. We are testing 4487 from below again, but will need momentum to pierce through it. We are anticipating another wave of risk on to come through stocks this week, so watch for the S&P to gain some traction and test higher levels including 4487, 4505 and 4521. We have a way to go before considering new all time highs, but 4564 is the next target after this.
FX:SPX500Long
by quantguy
Stocks Finding Support??Stocks have been gradually trending downward since highs at 4545. We have broken through several levels of support including 4521, and 4504. We finally found support at 4487, to the tick. We've called out this level many times in the reports. This would have made a nice level to buy back at least for a quick scalping trade. Currently we are testing 4504 again from below but are facing resistance. The Kovach OBV is gradually tapering up. Watch for momentum at open, but we could see some bull momentum. The next target is 4521, then 4545. If bear momentum continues, watch the vacuum zone down to 4462.
FX:SPX500Long
by quantguy
CSI 300 - 2021 Q4 Outlook [1-3 months view] Trend Analysis Chart Patterns Wave Analysis csi300 china hongkong index Equity Having completed the ABC corrective wave, CSI 300 started a new impulsive wave at the start of 2019. With price testing 1st support around the 4663.90 region where we also have a 50% Fibonacci retracement and possible wave 4 completion. With the CSI 300 index holding above long term moving average and Stochastic indicator holding above support where price bounced strongly in the past, we see a strong case of price facing renewed bullish pressure. Price could very well push towards our 1st resistance at 5449.57 level and possibly even completing wave 5 target at our 2nd resistance level of 5930.90. Our 2nd resistance level is a key level as it is in line with the historical high of the index and also we have strong Fibonacci levels that finds confluence at that level.
SSE:000300Long
by EverestFortuneGroup
Stocks Tumble, Find SupportStocks fell from from the range they were holding between 4521 and 4545. We anticipated a break out or break down as they had been holding this all last week. We caught some support at 4521 and made an attempt to establish value here, but another wave of selling took us to support at 4504. We should find support here but if we see another wave of selling, 4487 will be the next level down. The Kovach OBV has turned sharply bearish, reflecting the selloff. However we have two green triangles on the KRI suggesting that 4504 is likely to hold for now.
FX:SPX500
by quantguy
Can Stocks Sustain Highs??Stocks have been ranging between the 4521 and 4545. They have been ranging for over a week now. Observe the red triangles at the upper bound of the range from the KRI indicator, and the green triangles at the lower bound of the range. These mark perfect entry points for range trading. We are flirting with new highs, so it is highly likely that stocks will breakout, one way or the other. We will see if they have the momentum to sustain ranging at highs, or if they will retrace. If so, 4504 and 4487 will provide support. If we breakout, then 4564 is our next target.
FX:SPX500Long
by quantguy
1
MTN Group Limited RSI indicators are showing exhaustion. The stock looks overbought and is facing strong resistance at R130. As a trader, I wouldn't want to buy the top right now. I'm looking for a pullback to (+- R115) before I enter a position again. There is no denying that MTN has been a top stock to own in 2021, and this uptrend should continue, but in the short term I'm expecting a 10% pullback and then a retest to current levels of R130. If it can break out of R130 then R150 is on the cards. Pullback to R115 -( Ideal entry ) Retest of R130+ then some consolidation, then a breakout to test R150. 30% upside reward from R115 levels. Not financial advice.
JSE:MTN
by TalkingCents