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Will Stocks Make New Highs After Jackson Hole??Stocks dipped, finding support just above our level at 4462. We are currently testing 4487, which should provide resistance. The Kovach OBV is rounding off with the price action suggesting the overall momentum is petering out. Watch for news events from Jackson Hole to influence the price, and for stocks to remain in the value area between 4462 and 4487 until then. Our next target above is 4504 again, or highs. News from Jackson Hole could easily bring us to new highs again.
FX:SPX500Long
by quantguy
Stocks RangingStocks are broadly ranging in anticipation of more news from Jackson Hole. In an environment where the only really meaningful data point that matters is Central Bank forward guidance, stocks are waiting for a better idea. Watch for stocks to maintain this range until we have more insight or the market starts to price in a decision. It did appear that we got a burst of risk on mid trading session yesterday and we came within a few ticks of 4504. The Kovach OBV is pretty strong nevertheless.
FX:SPX500
by quantguy
Inflation TradeIn the chart below you have the TIP and IEF the IEF ratio. IEF is Ishares 7-10 year treasury bond ETF and TIP is the TIPs bond etf. On the right side of the chart you have the 10 year inflation breakeven. Now looking at the two you can see that they track pretty closely. Now generally the IEF 7-10 year has a very similar duration to that of the TIP etf. Some people are wondering how to play the inflation hedge as with some of the largest tech stocks P/E multiple compression could pose an issue to high P/E ratio trading stocks. What does this mean, and what is multiple compression. Well what happens as inflation rises that inflation starts to be built into P/E multiples, and as that happens you start to get compression of those P/E multiples this can pose a massive risk to equity holders. So my thesis would be you could short IEF, and be long TIP. This is something to look into, and I believe that spread that you can see below is going to widen tremendously. So it is something to watch out for, and a trade you might want to consider setting up.
AMEX:TIPLong
by tahirg0010
1
Potential Breakout in FANG Towards 8800Trend Analysis The main view of this trade idea is on the 4-Hour Chart. The index FANG (FNG1!) has been in a rangebound price movement after hitting resistance around the 7400 price level in mid February 2021. FANG held support at 6050 and made a second attempt to break above 7400 in mid July. After that failure the index quickly found some support around 6800 and is heading towards that 7400 resistance level. Expectations are for a break higher in FANG, with that target being 8800. Technical Indicators FANG is currently above its short (25-MA), medium (75-MA) and long (200-MA) fractal moving averages. The RSI is above 50 with the KST in a positive zone. Also over multiple other timeframes, the technical indicators are signaling a buy. Recommendation The recommendation will be to go long at market. Stop loss will be set around the 6000 price level and a target of 8800. This produces a risk-reward ratio of 1.36. Disclaimer The views expressed are mine and do not represent the views of my employers and business partners. Persons acting on these recommendations are doing so at their own risk. These recommendations are not a solicitation to buy or to sell but are for purely discussion purposes. At the time publishing, I have a position in FNG1!.
ICEUS:FNG1!Long
by Ceddy86
A quantitative approach - Is Alibaba and Chinese big tech a buy?One of the big macro focal points of late has been the extreme weakness in Chinese internet and tech stocks, with some even saying this space is uninvestable. Last week’s moves by China’s State Administration for Market Regulation ( www.reuters.com) may be seen by many as fair, but the measures increase the number of forceful and sustained regulatory curbs imposed by Chinese authorities in recent months. As any investor will tell you, when you invest in a company with such monopolistic and strong price maker qualities, especially in a regime where there is a move to a “Common Prosperity”, regulation is always the biggest risk to sentiment. Certainly, any equity trader that has seen the incredible loss of market cap in Tencent, Alibaba (BABA), Baidu, and others will attest to that now. Are we set to see a mean reversion rally? The level of conversation around these names, and whether the drop now represents a buying opportunity for long-term investors and traders has clearly ramped up. I would be fine with owning as a long-term play at current levels, but I have been most keen to explore whether after a 50% decline if there was a statistical trading case that suggested a short-term mean-reversion bounce is coming. I have paid particular focus on Alibaba (ticker: BABA). Initially, I ran a scan of our complete universe of c.900 global equity CFDs for any 40% or more below the broker's consensus price target. I see 12 on the list, with BABA 42% below the consensus target price of $271 – I see the stock trades on 17.7x full-year earnings and 14x 2022 earnings – if I didn’t believe BABA was due a raft of earnings downgrades, I’d argue this is insanely ‘cheap’, in fact, it’s never been lower, but I rarely look at valuation for trading equity CFDs. Perhaps more interestingly, having fallen 50%, BABA is now one of only 9 US-listed stocks trading 30% or more below its 200-day moving average – It was 35% above the 200-day MA in October, now it resides at a record discount to the average. In fact, this is very close to 3 standard deviations from the 200-day moving average. The only time price has breached the 3 standard deviation band occurred once before in October 2018 and subsequently marked a bullish turning point, with the stock rallying 29% over the coming 36 days. We can also see price close to the lower Keltner band – here, I have really stretched out the settings using a 20-day ATR length, 3 times ATR and 10-period average. I’ve then scanned for stocks in our full universe that have had a run of 8 down days (or more) in a row and that have a 3-day RSI of less than 5 – of our 900 odd equity CFDs, I get BABA and Resolute Mining, in fact, the 3-day RSI on BABA is just 0.47. Crunching the numbers, I wanted to see if there was any kind of edge in buying BABA for a day after such a run of losses. Using the logic of buying on the open (after 8 down days) and selling (to close) on the open of the following day – since listing on the NYSE in 2014 the system would have placed 11 trades, which isn’t a huge sample size but there is a 73% winning ratio. The average loss is 1.32x higher than the average gain, so this works against performance, but the max win is 1.36x higher than the max loss. If I scan to see buying after 8 consecutive falls with a 5-day hold period, my strike rate falls to 54%, but the average win is 1.35x that of my average loss. My max win is 1.8x my max loss. I also see volume steadily rising in the sell-offs – where on Friday we saw 75m shares traded – the highest since 24 December…one questions if this is the capitulation move? So the findings clearly show this name is incredibly oversold on many different technical and statistical readings. And that there is a small edge if one was to buy after this run of drawdown. One for the radar, as a bounce looks imminent even if it isn’t sustained.
NYSE:BABALong
by Pepperstone
Stocks Find SupportStocks are recovering from the dive they took down to 4350. We found support here and seem to be forming a consolidation pattern. We've rejected our level at 4421 as confirmed by a red triangle on the Kovach Reversals Indicator. Currently, we are finding support at lower levels, namely 4380. The Kovach OBV has picked up notably, suggesting we may find further support here. If we see momentum come through for the S&P, expect it to test 4421. If we clear this level we should be able to recover highs early next week.
FX:SPX500Long
by quantguy
ATOMOSI have been building a position on this one for a while now a bit after the covid crash and its been trending well with a bit of volatility bouncing around this trend. We are heading into an EQ level right now after a fairly impulsive move this week so expecting price to pull back a little before continuing up again. Keeping a close eye on the Supply block from just before the Covid drop as an over all target for now but if the trend continues with momentum and we move into price discovery then could be exciting Bullish on the business in the video content creation world in general
ASX:AMSLong
by DeNomics
Stocks Plunge!! 📉 😱Stocks have tumbled overnight in tandem with Asian stocks who sold off after Alibaba shares in Hong Kong tanked more than 5%. There is strong support at 4350, but that is more than 100 points away from highs. This is a significant dip for the S&P, but we should find support at current levels. This is a 0.618 retracement from the bull run since the beginning of July. We were due for a good dip, and this appears to be an Elliott Wave corrective impulse. We are highly likely to find support at current levels, but if not, the 50% Fibonacci level at 4315 should hold.
FX:SPX500Long
by quantguy
$JSENPN Naspers Some support coming upWeekly chart of Naspers indicates that the 2800 level was an important level and a break of that level means that support could only come up at around the 2000 - 2080 levels. The massive volume that traded over the last week on weakness is also not a very bullish signal, indicating that some institutional money is move away from this one. Chinese regulators are doing shareholder no favours with tech giants like Tencent in the firing line.
JSE:NPNShort
by KoosKanmar
2
Stocks Recovered Fast!!Stocks retraced quite a bit to 4421, a new technical level under 4431. The selloff came yesterday after renewed Coronavirus panic swept in after New Zealand entered lockdowns. This was swiftly bought back midday and we've retraced about 50% of the selloff. Currently, we're finding support at 4440. The Kovach OBV is still pretty strong, suggesting that the correction was paltry with respect to the overall bull momentum. Watch for the S&P to test 4462 again. Our next profit target remains 4487.
FX:SPX500Long
by quantguy
Stocks Make New Highs!!Stocks saw a selloff yesterday morning but quickly found support, at 4440, which we have identified as a new technical level. This is just above 4431, where we thought we'd see support. After finding support here, we immediately caught a bid sending us smashing through our profit target at 4462, and falling just short of our next target at 4487. We are seeing a red triangle on the KRI at the high, confirming steep resistance, but getting support at 4462 again. We should be able to establish value here at higher levels between 4440, 4462 and 4487.
FX:SPX500Long
by quantguy
Stocks Meet ResistanceStocks have reached our profit target at 4462, and seem to be stalling there. We will see if the Biden administration's epic, incendiary failure in Afghanistan will have an impact in the S&P closer to the open. For now, it looks like it will establish value between 4431 and 4462. The Kovach OBV is strong but has leveled off suggesting that stocks may be taking a breather before another rally. We are seeing not one but four red triangles on the KRI which suggests that we are facing stiff resistance at 4462.
FX:SPX500Long
by quantguy
Stocks Hit Our Profit Target!! 🥳Stocks have finally hit our profit target at 4462. This was a long time in the making and we've identified this as a profit target last month. The path to get there certainly was not quick, as the S&P has gradually drifted to this target, in contrast to the emphatic breakout we expected. We should see some resistance at this level, so some ranging is anticipated. From below, 4431 will provide support. The Kovach OBV is still very bullish so the run could still have legs.
FX:SPX500Long
by quantguy
1
Stocks Continue to Range 🥱We are still waiting for our breakout in stocks. All week, the S&P has been holding an extremely narrow range, and drifting up past our level at 4432. We are seeing a slow but steady drift, and volatility has consolidated immensely. We are due for a breakout either way. Our profit target from above is 4462. From below, 4408, 4389, and 4380 should provide support. The Kovach OBV was once quite strong, even with the consolidation, but appears to be tapering which makes us question if we may see a correction first before hitting our next profit target.
FX:SPX500Long
by quantguy
1