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Best Stock Trading IdeasStocks held a very narrow range yesterday, after dipping significantly, traversing the vacuum zone to find support at 4122. They could be gearing up for another breakout, which may finally take us to our profit target of 4227. Currently we are sitting at almost the exact middle of the range, at the 0.618 Fibonacci level at 4161. Watch out for 4187, which may provide resistance. If we retrace further, we will see support from 4146, which is a Fibonacci and technical level, then 4122 again.
FX:SPX500Long
by quantguy
1
Stocks Tumble!! What's Next??We warned you of the downside risk yesterday in stocks, and it would have been very wise to pay attention. The S&P tumbled yesterday, careening through the vacuum zone back to 4144 and bottoming out just above the level under that, 4122. They were swiftly bought back, however, but that would have been a lot of pain to hold through if you were impatient and FOMO'd in at highs. Currently, we are hovering between 4182 and 4188. It could go either way from here. If we reject current levels, we could see another wave of selling, testing lows. We could also see a lift back to highs at 4214. It seems likely for stocks to feel out this broad range before making new highs and hitting our next profit target of 4228.
FX:SPX500Long
by quantguy
Stocks Consolidating!! Breakout??Stocks have continued to maintain their range between 4188 and 4214. The volatility in the S&P has consolidated a bit and we appear to be forming a bull flag or bull wedge at the moment. This could suggest that stocks are gearing up for another breakout. However, the Kovach OBV has dropped off considerably so we must be aware of the down side risk. There is a vacuum zone down to 4144. If we can break out, the next target is fairly close, at 4227.
FX:SPX500Long
by quantguy
1
Chart of the day: What is up with the dollar's bounce?The med-term bias for the dollar remains tilted to the downside which is driven by th FED's monetary policy but also by the current global synchronised recovery and reflation we are seeing playing out. However, there are a couple of factors that could spell some upside for the dollar. The majority of the upside we saw from the start of 2021 was mostly some unwinding of the massive oversubscribed short bets that we started the year with. Now that most of that has played out, we have seen some med-term downside for the dollar over the past few weeks. The factor to watch is the current shaky risk tones we've seen in the market from last week. Even though nothing has changed the equity markets have benn trading rather rangebound and did not manage to see any meaningful upside despite solid earnings beats. Thus, the dollar might be seeing a bit of safety inflows with that in mind.
TVC:DXY
by thunderpips
4
Correction Coming for Stocks??Stocks have peaked right under our profit target of 4227, at 4214. We have pretty good support underneath at 4188 and 4178. However there is a vacuum zone below to 4144. We may find some support at one of the Fibonaci levels drawn here. The S&P has been very strong lately but the price action is 'rounding off' which suggests that a correction is coming. The Kovach OBV has declined a bit which may support this. We certainly aren't short of stocks, just cautious to enter at highs. If we do catch some momentum, we will most likely hit our profit target of 4227. Our next profit target is 4293.
FX:SPX500
by quantguy
Stocks Tumble!!The S&P has dipped pretty hard from highs. We anticipated that we would see 4188, again yesterday and that's exactly where we are at the time of this writing. In fact it looks like stocks are not finished with the bear run and are pushing through this level. We are likely to find some support around this level, at least until the open, where we may catch some momentum. We have a few lows testing 4178, which we have added as a new level. Pay attention to this level since there is a vacuum zone below to 4144. The Kovach OBV has dipped sharply suggesting the aggressive rally in stocks is on pause for now.
FX:SPX500
by quantguy
Stocks Hit Profit Target!! What's Next??Stocks broke out and hit our profit target exactly! After a few days of malaise before the FOMC, we had a breakout to 4214, a level of which you were alerted many days prior. Our next target is pretty conservative at 4227, then we have another at 4293. These are generated by Fibonacci extensions from Fibonacci levels anchored at the upper and lower bounds of the range the S&P has been respecting before the breakout. The Kovach OBV is still very strong, though it would be reasonable to expect a pullback, which could take us back to 4188.
FX:SPX500Long
by quantguy
New Highs for Stocks! Can they Hold them??Stocks managed to eek out new all time highs yesterday but just barely. There was quite a lot of resistance at this level, and it will take significant momentum to puncture through and maintain the rally. Entering a long here would be the height of fomo. Waiting for a deep seems much more reasonable and we could see the S&P cross a vacuum zone below to 4144 or 4122. These would be better levels to buy for at least a mean reversion trade. Take note of the vacuum zone to 4073.
FX:SPX500Short
by quantguy
S&P Continues to RangeThe S&P is trending sideways, maintaining a fairly narrow range between 4122 and 4188. This is perfectly reasonable after such a rally last week. The Kovach OBV has been very strong but has leveled off to reflect the correction. Watch the boundaries of the range for momentum at open. Lack of momentum will suggest that the range will continue. If we break down, 4073 will provide support. We could also see support before then at 4096 from a Fibonacci level. If it breaks out, then 4214 is our next target.
FX:SPX500
by quantguy
2
Another Breakout for Stocks??Stocks have rejected our head and shoulders pattern from yesterday. This is why you wait until the second shoulder has fully formed to trade this pattern. The neckline, 4122, was the make-or-break point, and the S&P ended up getting a lift from this level to retrace almost to highs at 4188. We are seeing some resistance from a collection of relative highs at 4174. We are likely to form a sideways consolidation pattern like a bull flag or bull wedge before breaking out higher. Strong momentum at open could give us new highs, but 4188 will take some juice to pierce through. Watch 4122 for continued support if we retrace.
FX:SPX500Long
by quantguy
Head and Shoulders forming in Stocks??Stocks stumbled yesterday, and broke down from our level at 4144. The S&P seems to be forming a new level around 4122, which is providing support at the moment. Observe that we may have a head and shoulders pattern forming, with a right shoulder potentially bounded by 4144, if we can't break through resistance there. If we can, we should be able reach 4188. After such an extended rally stocks were due for a correction and we are likely to at least see a sideways corrective wave before more momentum comes through. Further retracement is also reasonable, especially if our head and shoulders pattern forms. If so, inverse Fibonacci levels anchored about the span of the head shoulders range suggest we could dip to 4081, which is conspicuously close to one of our technical levels at 4073.
FX:SPX500
by quantguy
1
Stocks Finally Dip!!Stocks retraced to exactly the level we predicted yesterday: 4144. We have been warning that they were starting to get overbought, so hopefully no one got caught in a fomo trade. Although we do seem to be getting a fair amount of support at this level, the rally in stocks has left several vacuum zones below so the downside risk is significant. The more aggressive may consider entering a long position at current levels, however if this level does not hold, we have a vacuum zone down to 4073. Even if we retraced to this level, stocks would be long term bullish. The Kovach OBV is still pretty strong, confirming the trend.
FX:SPX500Long
by quantguy
1