Get started

Equity

Stocks Continue to RangeStocks retraced back to the support 0.618 Fibonacci support level at 3890. They are continuing the rather narrow range between this level and 3963. The Kovach OBV was strong but has flattened. It really could go either way at this point. Another retracement could take us to the 0.500 Fibonacci level at 3860. A rally would have to break 3933, before we could consider highs at 3987 again. The longer we range, the more probable a breakout is. We should see some conviction either today or tomorrow.
FX:SPX500
by quantguy
1
Positive risk tone sees JPY and CHF lead to the downsideHeading into today’s European trading session, the risk tone is leaning risk on with Asia-Pacific indices mostly positive, measures of volatility subdued and safe havens pressured. In the FX complex, the positive risk tone sees JPY sit at the bottom of the F majors, followed closely by CHF with USDJPY set to test the 109.00 handle to the upside, while NZDJPY reclaimed the 76.00 handle. Indeed, the antipodeans are currently leading the FX majors to the upside; although it’s AUD sitting in pole position, but NZD a close second. All in all, however, it’s worth noting that most currency pairs have remained contained by recent ranges, with no significant developments or catalysts observed throughout the Asia-Pacific session. Looking to the sessions ahead, expect central banks to once again be a key theme for the day. The SNB will announce their latest policy decision early in the European session, while central bank speakers from numerous central banks are scheduled to speak throughout the day.
by thunderpips
3
S&P500 at 4,100 as a 'base case' this year - RBCRBC discussed its S&P500 expectations for 2021 in a recent note to clients. RBC noted: Our 2021 S&P 500 target of 4.100 is our base case. It is roughly the median of 15 upside scenarios that we examined. If our call proves too conservative, our analysis suggests that the S&P 500 could trade as high as 4,600 for a +20% full year gain - the most bullish scenarios we examined came close to this level. Among the eight downside scenarios we examined, which articulate our bear case for full year or interim downside if momentum breaks lower, several point to a pullback to the 3600 / 3700 area (mid single digit drop in percentage terms depending on the starting point used) or to -3,200 (mid to high teens dip in percentage terms depending on starting point).
OANDA:SPX500USD
by thunderpips
12
S&P Ranging, Looking to BreakoutStocks retraced and are correcting sideways. We had a fairly risk-off/neutral day yesterday. The level 3890, or the 0.618 Fibonacci level is definitely providing some support right now and seems to be a lower bound for now. The Kovach OBV is trending up but has flatlined slightly. It could go either way from here. Further retracement could easily take us to the 50% Fibonacci level if 3890 does not hold. A breakout could take us to relative highs at 3987. We are maintaining a pretty narrow range at this point suggesting that stocks are ready for a breakout either way.
FX:SPX500
by quantguy
Stocks Slump Amid Virus WoesStocks are struggling, and it appears virus woes may be putting a damper on them. The S&P made a run for 3963, but fell just short of this and retraced back down to 3933 or so, which is a Fibonacci and technical level. We should see support here, but if not, 3890 would definitely provide support. We will find further support at 3860 or so. The Kovach OBV is rounding off suggesting that we may be in for more bearish momentum, or at least some sideways trading before momentum comes through to attempt highs at 3987.
FX:SPX500
by quantguy
1
Stocks Pull Back on Geopolitcal TensionsStocks retraced in the Asia-Pacific session due to geopolitical tensions in Myanmar and Turkey, to the 0.618 Fibonacci level, anchored at the relative high at 3987, and the low of our head and shoulders from which we saw the breakout at 3733. We are getting good support from this level but further fallout could take us to 3860, which would be a 0.500 Fib retracement. The Kovach OBV is receding a bit, but not to extremes. Thus it is likely we will find support at one of these Fib levels. We will face resistance from 3933 first, then highs at 3987.
FX:SPX500Long
by quantguy
Retracement Near for Stocks?Stocks are bullish, but their trajectory is waning. The Kovach OBV is still strong but has been leveling off. This is usually an indication that we will get a retracement soon. The level 3738 seems to be providing some resistance and we won't be able to break through without some significant momentum. If we can, the 4000's are in sight and 4009 is the next target. A retracement here could be swift and take us to 3887 or even 3867. The neckline of our inverse head and shoulders should provide further support at 3848.
FX:SPX500Short
by quantguy
Bull Breakout for the S&P??Stocks are looking pretty bullish lately. There is a clear bull channel and the Kovach OBV is very strong. We appear to be forming a bull wedge consolidation pattern, suggesting that a further breakout could be approaching. If we are right, a breakout could easily take us back to 4000's. If we are wrong we could retrace the entire move and find support at the neckline of our head and shoulders pattern from earlier this month. Further fallout could take us back to the level which constitutes the head of our inverse H&S pattern at 3737.
FX:SPX500Long
by quantguy