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Retracement In Stocks??Stocks have formed an extremely narrow range at highs. This is an extremely common behavior after an asset has made strides especially to the extent that the S&P has. However it does appear to be running out of steam. The Kovach OBV is still very strong, but has plateaued a bit, suggesting that momentum is waning. Additionally, although we have been seeing higher highs and lower lows, the hallmark of a bull trend, the extent has decreased with every attempt, forming an overall arc pattern. The signs are pointing to a correction in stocks or at least a sideways correction for a bit. If we do have a correction look to 3909, 3898, or even 3882 for support. These are a mixture of technical and Fibonacci levels. We are completely aware of bubble forming thanks to free Federal Reserve magic papers. So if stocks do breakout they will contend with 3937 first.
FX:SPX500
by quantguy
Stocks At Highs!! Retracement??Stocks have continued their ascent but are slowing down. Indeed, we are seeing higher highs, but at a decreasing extent. This suggests that a healthy retracement is coming. We are still 100% in bull mode, and would still solidly be so even with a retracement to 3824. A 50% retracement of the Fibonacci levels shown is much more likely, which could bring us to 3871. Of course, this assumes a healthy market not the bloated, fed fueled bubble of a stock market we have now. It is also perfectly reasonable under these conditions to break out again to new highs. If so, 3937 if a good target. Either way, it would be extreme FOMO to enter a long trade at this point, unless you expect an imminent breakout for some reason.
FX:SPX500Long
by quantguy
Stocks to Retrace from ATH'sStocks are facing some resistance at 3909, after breaking new highs once again. Our Fibonacci extensions predicted a price target of 3928, which the S&P will hit once it is able to break through 3909. It is likely that it will retrace from here first. The Kovach OBV was strong but has plateaued, and the chande (purple line) has dipped notably. We are still bullish of stocks but must note that the pendulum has swung to the bull side, and it's natural for it to swing back before another push for all time highs. The levels 3867 and 3848 will give us support. Currently we are finding some support at the psychological level of 3900.
FX:SPX500Long
by quantguy
Stocks Make New Highs!! Next Targets??Stocks broke through to new highs yesterday. The Kovach OBV suggests there was a lot of momentum here, and there had to be. The S&P formed a double top back in January validating the importance of 3867. It broke through and is currently having trouble with 3887. This is a level we called out last month, which was a Fibonacci Extension. The S&P is pretty extended right now, so we can expect a retracement, perhaps off 3887 to highs at 3867 or perhaps 3848. No one can deny the momentum in stocks, the Kovach OBV is quite strong. So eventually we will break through 3887 and hit 3928, then 3937. These are two somewhat proximal levels garnered from Fibonacci extensions. Note the vacuum zone between current levels and these targets. If the S&P is able to break new highs, it should sail through to those targets soon after.
FX:SPX500Long
by quantguy
2
S&P 500 Imminent Breakout!!Stocks are clinging to support at 3825. They have held a very narrow range between this and 3848 or so. It could really go either way from here. A narrow range always precedes a breakout, so whatever the S&P does, it is going to do with force. We are very close to all time highs, and these will not be easily broken. It will take some momentum to pierce through. If so, Fibonacci extensions suggest 3887 is our closest target. After that, we seem to have a bit of a vacuum zone before two Fibonacci extension levels at 3927 and 3937, just 10 points apart. From below, watch 3810, 3792, then 3758.
FX:SPX500Long
by quantguy
1
Stocks Volatile, Trade Carefully!!Stocks have maintained a period of extreme volatility. The S&P has zig zagged 200 points or so in the last few days. It has found support off lower levels at 3676, and has effectively returned to highs. It fell just short of all time highs, just under a congestion zone at 3844. It is likely to face resistance here. It is unlikely to see a breakout to new highs any time soon, since the S&P has extended almost 200 points already. This is quite a move even for stocks. We anticipate the volatility to continue, suggesting that we could test lower levels again. It is highly likely that we will test lower levels, then consolidate around highs, then breakout to achieve all time highs again. The levels 3792, 3810, and 3825 will all provide support.
FX:SPX500
by quantguy
Stocks Struggling for SanityStocks have displayed some extreme volatility over the last few days. The S&P has spanned about 200 points from highs to lows down in the 3600 handle. Currently, it has regained the 3800's finding support right around the psychological 3800 level. Even the Kovach OBV is somewhat oscillatory which shows the vicariousness of the momentum coming through this product. Eventually such extreme volatility will peter out, and we will have more well defined behavior soon. There is a double top at highs, which is a bearish sign. Also, we see a bearish crab cypher pattern on the daily chart. These are both ominous signs, so the fed will have to run the money printers on overdrive if they wish to prop up stocks for another bull run.
FX:SPX500
by quantguy
Stocks Face HeadwindsThe S&P has retraced significantly from highs. We are seeing quite a bit of volatility as large price swings of a full ATR or more are quite common with this product right now. These price swings have even registered with the Kovach OBV which is telling us there is a lot of momentum here in these buying and selling waves. The Kovach Chande is at highs. Since this is an oscillator, it is saying that the pendulum has swung to the buy-side and we are due for another retracement. If we are correct, we can expect the S&P to test 3713 or even 3675. From there it should find support. if it is able to breakout to the upside, there is a vacuum zone back to 3792
FX:SPX500Short
by quantguy
Cautiously Optimistic of StocksStocks saw some incredible volatility yesterday. No doubt some of this is related to the GameStop saga. The S&P 500 has completely retraced the bear move only to give back thse gains and settle around a cluster of levels beginning at 3737. It is likely to find support here, at least for the moment, which seems to be verified over the past few hours. If it breaks further down it will have support at 3714. the next level is in the 3600 handle at 3694. The Kovach OBV has whipsawed which is extremely rare. Usually this indicator goes with the overall trend. This is telling us that there is an extreme amount of momentum in stocks lately, in both directions: selling and buying. It is difficult to determine the overall direction of stocks, however we still remain cautiously bullish for now.
FX:SPX500Long
by quantguy
Cypher Pattern Breakdown in StocksStocks have faced a tremendous retracement. The S&P has blasted through levels in the 3800 handle. It tested the low 3700's before finally finding support. There is a bearish cypher crab pattern on the daily chart. This is an extremely bearish sign, and such a large selloff could be the initial breakdown from this pattern. The Kovach OBV is registring the sell off. Currently, the S&P is ranging between 3712 and 3750. It is reasonable that it should try to find footing after such a tremendous selloff. The boundaries of this range will provide support/resistance, so pay attention to what happens at open. The next levels of support are in the 3600's at 3695, then 3676 then 3658.
FX:SPX500Short
by quantguy