Get started

Equity

NASDAQ-100 AND SP-500 NAVIGATING FRAGILE MARKETS- T-bills to be issued by the end of Q3 drain liquidity and have an impact similar to a 25 basis point increase in benchmark rates. - Further market extension is challenging due to possible overtightening. - Unemployment data is a significant turning point. - Unsatisfactory market breadth. - Significant divergence between Nasdaq and Treasury 2-year. Hello everyone, Today I present a couple of ideas regarding the fragility of the Nasdaq 100 and the consequences for the S&P 500. Firstly, I want to remind you that once the US debt agreement is reached, approximately 1 trillion dollars' worth of short-term Treasury bills (T-bills) will enter the market by the end of Q3, resulting in an inevitable liquidity drain from the stock market. According to industry reports, this issuance of government bonds may act as an additional 25 basis point increase in Fed rates. Furthermore, following the bank failures in recent months, we can expect further deterioration in the credit market, also comparable to a 25 basis point increase in Fed rates. This leads us to a potential overtightening by the Fed due to the indirect rate increase described above. It will, therefore, be challenging for the markets to grow solidly due to the likely resulting economic contraction. Additionally, recent reports indicate that inflation is decreasing less than expected, and further rate increases by the Fed may be necessary, as dictated by their econometric models. The unemployment data for this week will be crucial. If it indicates a potential rise in unemployment, we may see a pause in rate hikes, thus mitigating the possibility of a sustained market collapse in the short term. Otherwise, further credit tightening will be necessary, which will have a negative impact on the markets. If another Fed rate hike materializes, we could witness the liquidation of long positions built over time based on optimism about potential rate cuts at the end of the year. Without a year-end rate cut, the possibility of a credit squeeze continuing into 2024 arises, which would be detrimental to heavily indebted companies that will have to consider refinancing ongoing operations at much higher than expected rates. This will have a negative impact on future corporate profits. We now observe the deterioration in the breadth of the index, displaying a negative divergence with three descending peaks. For the tech rally to continue, we will need further advances in AI-related stocks, the last line of defense before a correction (in the chart, market breadth is indicated in gray, calculated as the percentage of stocks above their 200-period moving average). Finally, I would like to mention the significant divergence between the 2-year Treasury and the Nasdaq-100 since the beginning of May (in the chart, the 2-year Treasury is represented in cyan, with the axis inverted). I believe that this divergence will be corrected, but since a reduction in 2-year Treasury yields is unlikely, the possibility of a correction in the index remains. Nice trading, Cheers
CME_MINI:NQ1!
by Criss1990
SG10Y Govt Bond and SPY relationship Part VI - Bear for EquitiesAs mentioned in previous heads up over the last weeks, it had finally happened (as expected) that the SG10Y GB yield rates break out of trend line resistance. And from previous occurrences, this is a very reliable inverse leading indicator of the SPY (and other related equity indexes); meaning that the SPY should be tanking downwards within the next week or so. Enough said, pattern recognition checked, trend correlation checked, projection based on hypothesis checked... now the rubber hits the road. Not expecting any deviation from the correlation, so is very likely that equities should be tipping over in a bearish slide. HEADS UP!
TVC:SG10Y
by Auguraltrader
Strong result and reasonable valuation Westpac shares bucked the trend amongst its banking peers rising after revealing its half-year result for the first half of the 2023 financial year. Cash earnings came in at $4,001m which rose +22% from last year benefiting from higher interest rates and making progress to become a simpler, stronger bank with disciplined cost and margin management providing $1 billion of in cost savings. Interim dividend came in at 70 cents per share, up +15% from last year, and a 61% payout ratio to further strengthen their balance sheet. We welcome Westpac’s result which was in-line with market expectations and with a conservative view anticipate loan business and margins to tighten slightly given the slowdown in the housing market due to rising interest rates. Westpac as still trades at a reasonable multiple compared to other big four banks’ forecasted to pay out a 6.5% dividend (taking a prudent approach of assuming no dividend growth from here). Read more at: research.blackbull.com
ASX:WBC
by BlackBull_Markets
Disney - strong results in spite of audience dipDisney reported mixed results for the quarter. The good: streaming losses fell to $659M from the previous quarter’s $1.1B, whereas streaming revenues rose +12% to $5.5B. Crucially ARPU (average revenue per user) rose 20%in the US and ~6% internationally — it’s a case of squeezing actual profit out of users rather than scaling the business at all costs — this is the new “raison d’etre” of streamers globally, as heralded by WBD CEO Zaslav a few quarters ago — like in Jerry Maguire, “show me the money”. And now for the bad: total users fell to 157M from 161M — this was mostly due to Disney+Hotstar, an Indian subscription service — it was mostly an outlier; users lost ex Hotstar sat in the hundreds of thousands. The ugly: linear (“trad”) TV revenues fell 7%, largely due to the increased cost of sports rights and declining advertising revenues. We’ve seen this across the board – WBD and Paramount saw the same. See upside here as +$130 and downside as +$80 for the year. Read more at: research.blackbull.com
NYSE:DIS
by BlackBull_Markets
Nordex's YoY losses up 133% and Debt/Equity ratio up 54%FUNDAMENTAL ANALYSIS Current liabilities increased 47% up to €3.4bn in 2022 from €2.3bn in 2021. Non-current liabilities decreased 37%. Debt to Equity ratio (2022) = 4.42x Debt to Equity ratio (2021) = 2.87x Losses YoY increased 133% to €522 million. EBITDA turned negative in 2022 to -€244 million from €52,672 million in 2021. Almost all Guidance provided in March 2022 was exceeded downwards except for Sales Guidance. Positive side: Sales increased 4.58%. TECHNICAL ANALYSIS Since April 6, the company has entered into a downward trend that in Oct 2022 attempted to turn around. However, the banking crisis and inflation fears persist in a way that Nordex's stock performance graph experienced the appearance of a Bearish Bat pattern whose prophecy together with its recently issued FY 2022 results could materialise in the following days and weeks to come.
XETR:NDX1Short
by alexinve
KotakBank gearing up for a recoveryKotak Bank has been taking a beating for last 3 months, and I think it's about time that it started attracting some big investments again. My view on this stock is bullish right now, and we can expect the move to realise in next 2-3 months, i.e. May 1(around the time of their next financial report). Kotak is a fundamentally strong bank, that has generated consistent revenues and even better profit margins in last couple of years. It's a good value stock that has been neutralised since it last tried breaking through it's all time high price in October 2021. It has recently jumped back up from a pretty solid supply zone, and to my eyes, it's giving all the right signals for a bullish recovery. Rationale: Strong rejection from the supply zone, at a much higher price than the last reversal. Price responding well to fib-levels, taking support at .786 retracement level. A sharp spike in long term RSI & ADX levels, slow Stochastic starting to rise Price forming a bullish Gartley pattern Long Setup: CMP: ~1750 Entry levels: Wait for retest, ideal entry should be around 1720, aggressive buyers can start accumulating already. Buyers may look to average their price until 1700. Stop Loss Levels: Low risk tolerance -> 1680-1660, High risk tolerance -> 1620 Target Levels: 1800 - 1850, long range target 1900-2000(3 month horizon) Potential upside: 15% Potential downside: 7%
NSE:KOTAKBANKLong
by sudoMode
1
NVDA Path to 270-280 - Good Swing or Options Trade?NVDA has provided pretty clear bias and momentum signals. Hey, this isn't trade advice. The upside target is 270-280. This clicks with key 4D level as well as RDA projection zone (grey lines). I teach simplicity and I ask 2 questions: What Should Happen? Bias and momentum should hold on 4D and D charts Price should probably stall around 216 but ultimately close with a level above. If price pulls back the ideal textbook reaction is a rejection at the 180 area. The creation of a level on the 4D chart above or around this. If that level gets tested it holds. What Shouldn't Happen? No 4D close below RDA If price pulls back to the high probability reaction zone, it better create a level above one or all the momentum and bias indicators. Overall this might provide a good swing or options trade. Especially if you a trader enters in a scale in strategy.
NASDAQ:NVDALong
by RexDogActual
4
3/27/2023 (Monday) SPY Analysis and Market Deep DiveMonday 3/27/2023 - In this Video I discuss The technical analysis of the SPY ETF which is a proxy the S&P500 that is often a tell on general market movements. I also discuss broader market Macros I have been watching including last week's and next weeks economic events. We also discuss some recession indicators, and other charts that show headwinds and tailwinds to equities. In the Trading View App, You can use the links below and hit play, so you can see the action from the dates the charts were published. I will keep this going so we can follow outcomes to analysis!
AMEX:SPYLong
by Markets-Sniper