Get started

Erdogan

Stable TL For the Next Few Years? A quick update on the future of the Turkish Lira (TL): Interest rates will rise to the range of 30% to 35% and will remain high for the following years (possibly 2-3 years). The Turkish Central Bank will stop printing vast amounts of money, and getting loans for purchasing houses or cars will become difficult. This action will lower inflation for few years. TL will have a correction to the levels of 20-23 within a few years. After 3-4 years, the next target will be levels of 40-60. The Central Bank will continue to print money and lower the interest rates. That will trigger another inflation around 2027-2028. Targets: First target: Range of 28-29 Second target: Range of 25-28 for a few years Third target: Levels of 20 for a swift correction Last target: Levels of 40 after 2-4 years This constitutes a very long-term analysis. It is important to note that this assessment could be inaccurate; all the stated opinions are personal. The market can undergo drastic changes due to even a minor policy adjustment. Therefore, exercise caution and conduct your own research before making any decisions. Stay safe.
by MinimumWagerLvl1
5
EURTRY- Textbook Entries 🏛️📑Some governments (not the people) prefer their currency cheap, it helps with exports. People choose their government. In this case Erdogan has been re-elected. A cheaper Turkish lira supports the plan of what I call 'Islamo-Chinaization': Cheap currency helps bring tourism and business but does not help the Turks study abroad or buy from abroad. China for example likes their currency cheap. Erdogan focuses on producing and selling (from goods to guns) instead of importing and at the same time turns the country into a 'claustrophobic anti-Western entity' to achieve so. Off course himself and his bankers are only growing stronger assisting Russians with sanctions and keeping 'one leg in NATO and the other in the East'. Creating an 'enemy or 2' helps the cause. Talking about Ottoman empire, Islam and 'kismet' also helps the 'Supreme Leader's' purpose.... but this sounds more like Iran and North Korea than a 'democratic modern nation'. These can be dangerous days for the Turkish Lira and the Turkish people. Will the IMF need to step in? Will it want to step in? Will Erdogan accept it? Or will Qatar, the Russians or anyone else (?) run to the rescue for their own interest? Could that be the BRICS? (in any case, there is no such thing as free money) All these questions will remain un-answered until we know the answer. For the time being TRY keeps weakening against the USD and EUR. 26,5 TRY to a EUR is a possibility here. By the way, my last post was a PERFECT entry and it was the third in a row: When a country goes into economic problems and it's leader is a revisionist there lies a danger of war. Ukraine is a battlefield nearby where East and West are 're-shaping borders'. The worst case scenario here would be for Turkey to end up picking a 'camp' and entering a fight, which historically has happened many times in similar situations. (Look at the last 2 links below....) “Old men make war, young men fight and die.” — Winston Churchill I can only wish Turkish people peace and prosperity and may Erdogan find a balance between reality and economy. Young people with 'warm blood' should not waste it for 'dangerous political ambitions' but instead should have access to education, opportunities, jobs and prosperous future. One Love, The FXPROFESSOR 🌅 Links: Economic unorthodoxy and culture wars : www.theguardian.com The West: www.bbc.com Brics: watcher.guru Russia and Turkey have a Long history of being friends and then fighting: www.reuters.com Turkey and Greece tensions ease: greekcitytimes.com EURTRY PERFECT ENTRIES:
Long
by FX_Professor
6
Turkish Lira - Doesn't look good...Already vulnerable, Turkey’s economy now faces massive earthquake recovery costs: After a difficult year, things finally seemed to be looking up for Turkey’s beleaguered economy in early 2023. Just six months earlier, in June 2022, the economy was on the brink: Turkey was facing a potential balance of payments crisis, meaning it would be unable to redeem foreign currency debts and pay the bills for imported goods. The credit default swap premium, paid annually to guarantee redemption of five-year dollar-denominated eurobonds, was hovering over 9% — the highest level since the 2001 banking crisis — and sovereign credit ratings for external loans were the lowest they had been in 20 years. In the months that followed, things slowly began to improve as Turkey benefited from stronger global economic conditions coupled with new domestic corporate capital restrictions, informal cash inflows from abroad, and better-than-expected winter weather, all of which provided a temporary reprieve from the country’s long-standing economic woes. But then on Feb. 6 the worst happened: Turkey and neighboring Syria were hit by a pair of massive earthquakes, registering magnitudes of 7.8 and 7.5, just hours apart. As of Feb. 13, the total death toll in Turkey was over 30,000; tens of thousands more have been injured, thousands of buildings have been destroyed, and the total physical damage and loss of future growth is estimated in the tens of billions of dollars. The total cost of the destruction caused by earthquakes is still unclear, but it will not be less than $10 billion and it could be much more — as much as $84 billion, according to one estimate from Turkish business group Turkonfed, or around 10% of GDP. More than 8,000 residential and commercial buildings collapsed. These will need to be rebuilt and many others will have to be repaired or replaced if construction standards are tightened. Public buildings such as schools, hospitals, and government offices have been heavily damaged. Intercity gas, oil, and electricity lines need to be repaired as well. Some strategic infrastructure, like the Tarsus-Gaziantep Highway, İskenderun Port, and Hatay Airport, was moderately damaged, although the Kirkuk-Ceyhan and Baku-Tbilisi-Ceyhan oil pipelines were reportedly not. No information has been released yet about the Iskenderun steel factory and the Dörtyol gas terminal. There are critical energy production facilities in the region as well, such as the Akkuyu nuclear power plant; Afşin-Elbistan thermal power plant; and Berke, Aslantaş, Atatürk, Keban, and Karakaya dams. So far no significant damage to these has been reported either. In addition to reconstruction, there are other costs as well, like living expenses for the thousands of people affected by the earthquakes. The total population of the region is 13.4 million. Most of them are safe; however, their work conditions will change. At least half a million of them will need state support to meet their basic needs — food, accommodation, and heating. Medical and educational expenses must be taken into account as well, and the earthquakes will also affect their ability to work and consume. So far, the Turkish government has allocated an initial $5.3 billion in disaster relief. The upcoming elections remain a major source of uncertainty : Erdogan’s Hit and Run Election – Turkey’s opposition bloc is now left one tinny short of a six-pack. Some say Aksener is now becoming a valuable piece on Erdogan's chess board. After a dozen meetings between its half-dozen constituents, the Nation’s Alliance failed to reach a unanimous selection of a presidential candidate to challenge Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan in May’s national ballot. Exasperated IYI Party leader Meral Aksener walked out of talks on Friday, unable or unwilling to accept that Turkey's Gandhi Kemal Kilicdaroglu was the optimal choice to run as Erdogan’s opponent. She has a point. She’s not alone. A loose coalition had been assembled to establish unity and prioritise the ousting of Erdogan at the expense of party fealty, but they neither came, saw nor conquered. Instead, as Erdogan crowed, ‘They sat, they talked and they dispersed’. The damage to the opposition’s electoral prospects is substantial but is it irreparable? By rights, given the myriad crises besetting Turkey right now and the economic omnishambles over which Erdogan has presided for two decades, a united opposition should be able to nominate a chimpanzee or a block of feta cheese to stand against Erdogan and secure a landslide. If only it were that simple. IMF/NATO/ The West: In this stage the Turkish Lira might become even more vulnerable if Erdogan insists on not deciding where his country belongs. Turkey keeps blocking Sweden's Nato membership bid which makes things more difficult in his relations with the Western block whereas he remains 'Trapped in Putin's Embrace'' In a few words: The dangers on the Turkish Lira have increased dramatically and the country could be entering into a much volatile and fragile election period amidst grown uncertainty. It looks to me that the West can not trust Erdogan and unless he makes a move closer to NATO and the Western allies things could become gloomier. (remember: Former POTUS Donald Trump, who owns a Trump tower in Turkey and is a friend of Erdogan had threatened to ‘devastate’ Turkey’s economy. which still kind of looks like a valid scenario of the 'West' trying to get rid of Erdogan by weakening his economy). So now, especially after the earthquake Turkey's economy is more vulnerable and Erdogan's games between 'east and west' could be a grave danger for the Turkish Lira. Who is more affected? The people of Turkey. Lira's weakening has become a struggle for Turkish citizens in recent years and things could become even worse. Then again, it's the same people who will soon vote what they think is better for them and their future. Our condolences to all the families affected from the earthquakes. Such an unbelievable tragedy can make one think how small we stand in front of nature. May the people in the affected areas receive all the assistance the international community can offer and may their leadership look for what's best for it's people. One Love, The FXPROFESSOR ps. i hope this post/idea doesn't go as well as the last one: and may instead can be another epic rebound:
Editors' picks
Long
by FX_Professor
15
USD/TRY Targeting above 20.0000 | Q2 Q3Economists look for further sharp Turkish lira depreciation. They forecast the USD/TRY above the 20.00 level in the second quarter of the year. 𝐓𝐡𝐞 𝐧𝐢𝐠𝐡𝐭𝐦𝐚𝐫𝐞 𝐚𝐟𝐭𝐞𝐫 𝐂𝐡𝐫𝐢𝐬𝐭𝐦𝐚𝐬: “We think that USD/TRY will rise to 16.25 by end-Q1 and breach well over 20 in Q2. However, this is when we expect the CBRT to start tightening, which should help bring the pair down to around 19 by end-Q2.” “𝐓𝐡𝐞 𝐥𝐢𝐫𝐚 𝐜𝐚𝐧 𝐜𝐨𝐧𝐭𝐢𝐧𝐮𝐞 𝐚𝐩𝐩𝐫𝐞𝐜𝐢𝐚𝐭𝐢𝐧𝐠 𝐢𝐧 𝐚 𝐠𝐫𝐚𝐝𝐮𝐚𝐥 𝐦𝐚𝐧𝐧𝐞𝐫 𝐭𝐡𝐫𝐨𝐮𝐠𝐡𝐨𝐮𝐭 𝐭𝐡𝐞 𝐫𝐞𝐬𝐭 𝐨𝐟 𝟐𝟎𝟐𝟐 𝐚𝐬𝐬𝐮𝐦𝐢𝐧𝐠 𝐧𝐨 𝐟𝐮𝐫𝐭𝐡𝐞𝐫 𝐩𝐨𝐥𝐢𝐜𝐲 𝐦𝐢𝐬𝐬𝐭𝐞𝐩𝐬.” “𝐅𝐫𝐨𝐦 𝟐𝟎𝟐𝟑 𝐨𝐧𝐰𝐚𝐫𝐝𝐬, 𝐡𝐨𝐰𝐞𝐯𝐞𝐫, 𝐩𝐨𝐥𝐢𝐜𝐲 𝐦𝐢𝐬𝐭𝐚𝐤𝐞𝐬 𝐚𝐫𝐞 𝐲𝐞𝐭 𝐚𝐠𝐚𝐢𝐧 𝐥𝐢𝐤𝐞𝐥𝐲 𝐭𝐨 𝐬𝐞𝐭 𝐓𝐑𝐘 𝐨𝐧 𝐚 𝐰𝐞𝐚𝐤𝐞𝐧𝐢𝐧𝐠 𝐭𝐫𝐚𝐣𝐞𝐜𝐭𝐨𝐫𝐲.” The Turkish lira halted its depreciation in levels just below the 14.00 mark vs. the US dollar at the end of the week, all amidst a narrow trading range in USD/TRY. USD/TRY remains poised for extra gains: USD/TRY seems to have met quite a decent barrier near 14.00 the figure on Friday, although it managed to record new highs for the year, nonetheless. In the meantime, 𝐭𝐡𝐞 𝐥𝐢𝐫𝐚 𝐫𝐞𝐦𝐚𝐢𝐧𝐬 𝐮𝐧𝐝𝐞𝐫 𝐬𝐜𝐫𝐮𝐭𝐢𝐧𝐲 𝐚𝐦𝐢𝐝𝐬𝐭 𝐭𝐡𝐞 𝐜𝐮𝐫𝐫𝐞𝐧𝐭 𝐟𝐞𝐞𝐛𝐥𝐞 𝐨𝐮𝐭𝐥𝐨𝐨𝐤, 𝐰𝐡𝐢𝐜𝐡 𝐡𝐚𝐬 𝐛𝐞𝐞𝐧 𝐞𝐱𝐚𝐜𝐞𝐫𝐛𝐚𝐭𝐞𝐝 𝐚𝐟𝐭𝐞𝐫 𝐢𝐧𝐟𝐥𝐚𝐭𝐢𝐨𝐧 𝐟𝐢𝐠𝐮𝐫𝐞𝐬 𝐫𝐞𝐜𝐨𝐫𝐝𝐞𝐝 𝐚 𝟏𝟗-𝐲𝐞𝐚𝐫 𝐩𝐞𝐚𝐤 𝐛𝐞𝐲𝐨𝐧𝐝 𝟑𝟔% 𝐢𝐧 𝐭𝐡𝐞 𝐲𝐞𝐚𝐫 𝐭𝐨 𝐃𝐞𝐜𝐞𝐦𝐛𝐞𝐫 (𝐌𝐨𝐧𝐝𝐚𝐲). From the Turkish cash markets, yields of the 5y and 10y bonds reverse the recent multi-session weakness and resume the upside to past the 24% mark and just above 23%, respectively. The recent decline in yields have been promoted by purchases of government debt by the Turkish central bank (CBRT) according to latest news. What to look for around TRY: The lira resumed the downtrend while market participants continue to digest the recent inflation figures and the government scheme to protect deposits in the domestic currency. The reluctance of the CBRT to change the (collision?) course and the omnipresent political pressure to favour lower interest rates in the current context of rampant inflation and (very) negative real interest rates are forecast to keep the lira under intense pressure for the time being, That said, another visit to the all-time high north of the 18.00 mark in USD/TRY should not be ruled out just yet. Eminent issues on the back boiler: Progress (or lack of it) of the new scheme oriented to support the lira. Constant government pressure on the CBRT vs. bank’s credibility/independence. Bouts of geopolitical concerns. Much-needed structural reforms. Growth outlook vs. progress of the coronavirus pandemic. Potential assistance from the IMF in case another currency crisis re-emerges. Presidential elections in 2023. 𝐔𝐒𝐃/𝐓𝐑𝐘 𝐤𝐞𝐲 𝐥𝐞𝐯𝐞𝐥𝐬: So far, the pair is losing 0.24% at 13.7871 and a drop below 12.7523 (weekly low Jan.3) would pave the way for a test of 11.9694 (55-day SMA) and finally 10.2027 (monthly low Dec.23). On the other hand, the next up barrier lines up at 13.8967 (YTD high Jan.3) followed by 18.2582 (all-time high Dec.20) and then 19.0000 (round level). 𝐓𝐞𝐜𝐡𝐧𝐢𝐜𝐚𝐥𝐬 𝐚𝐫𝐞 𝐟𝐮𝐭𝐢𝐥𝐞 𝐮𝐧𝐝𝐞𝐫 𝐬𝐮𝐜𝐡 𝐟𝐮𝐧𝐝𝐚𝐦𝐞𝐧𝐭𝐚𝐥 𝐝𝐫𝐢𝐯𝐞𝐫𝐬 𝐚𝐧𝐝 𝐰𝐢𝐥𝐝 𝐩𝐫𝐢𝐜𝐞 𝐚𝐜𝐭𝐢𝐨𝐧 𝐚𝐬 𝐭𝐡𝐢𝐬, 𝐛𝐮𝐭 𝐧𝐞𝐯𝐞𝐫𝐭𝐡𝐞𝐥𝐞𝐬𝐬, 𝐢𝐟 𝐭𝐡𝐞𝐫𝐞 𝐢𝐬 𝐭𝐨 𝐛𝐞 𝐬𝐭𝐚𝐛𝐢𝐥𝐢𝐭𝐲, 𝐭𝐡𝐞𝐧 𝐭𝐡𝐞 𝐫𝐚𝐧𝐠𝐞 𝐚𝐫𝐞 𝐛𝐞𝐭𝐰𝐞𝐞𝐧 𝟏𝟏.𝟎𝟎𝟎𝟎 - 𝟏𝟔.𝟎𝟎𝟎𝟎 - BUYING PRESSURE PRICE 10.2000/11.3000 - Our option for #USDTRY is TO WAIT FOR BUYERS DECISION PRICE ACTION WITH A SECOND CONFIRMATION. - Economy BUBBLE has happened or is close to !! - The outlook and the overall trend for the pair is SO BULLISH . - 𝗜𝘁’𝘀 𝗶𝗺𝗽𝗼𝗿𝘁𝗮𝗻𝘁 to keep in mind that cryptocurrency markets are extremely volatile, making it difficult to accurately predict what a coin’s price will be in a few hours or a few days and even harder to give long-term estimates. As such, analysts and online forecasting sites can get their predictions wrong. We recommend that you always do your own research and consider the latest market trends, news, technical and fundamental analysis , and expert opinion before making any investment decisions. Be patient and look long term wisely and never invest more than you can afford to lose. Trading & Investing both are the master of RISK. Please comment, like and follow if it was helpful for you. Thank you for your time. Have a profitable day. | Review and analysis by Samadi.Finance |
by AliSamadiTR
9
TUR (Turkish Stocks Index) Descending Triangle. -59% Drop ComingSome people have been pointing out to me that the Turkish stock market has been hitting all time highs consistently through 2021. However, this is only apparent when looking at Borsa Istanbul Index in Turkish Lira. Once you look at it in term of USD, it becomes quite clear that the opposite is true. The Turkish stock market has been hitting new lows consistently. We just broke this descending triangle downward. The Borsa Istanbul has suspended trading for the fourth day in a row as of today. We don't know where this index will be when the market opens on 27 December. What we do know is that there is a fully formed descending triangle, and that if it breaks downwards, then we should expect a target of $7.76, a 59% drop from last closing price. I also suspect that the index will trade sideways for a while after hitting the bottom. Psychologically, recovery does not occur immediately after such a devastating drop. We will keep watch throughout 2021, so stay tuned.
NASDAQ:TURShort
by TechNerdOmar
3
EURTRY - Stopped at 15,7 (Exactly!)Great trade that was again with a take profit hit at exactly 15,7 level as per our previous idea : News: Turkish inflation has reached its highest level since Recep Tayyip Erdogan came to power almost two decades ago as the president’s contentious economic management sparks a surge in prices. The country’s consumer price index rose 36 per cent year on year in December, according to data released by Turkey’s statistical agency on Monday. In the meantime, Erdogan is trying to balance between Russia and the West: -President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan discussed Turkey-Russia relations and regional developments with Russian President Vladimir Putin, a statement by the Presidential Communications Directorate said Sunday. -At the same time Turkey asks US to set up joint mechanism to resolve differences Difficult for Turks to find ease and believe but Erdogan is trying: "I want all my citizens to keep their savings in our own money , to run all their business with our own money, and I recommend this," Erdogan said in a speech in Istanbul. Hopefully the worst is over but all will depend on what happens in the political front. this game is all about politics. One Love, the FXPROFESSOR
by FX_Professor
2
USDTRY market speculationAfter the Turkish president Recep Tayyip Erdoğan announced the measures that the Turkish government would take to improve their currency slippage, over $1 billion was sold to trade for the Turkish lira which caused the USDTRY to drop over 20% making the greatest recovery in any currency in over 40 years. Understanding how the forex markets operate, the USDTRY will attempt to stabilize sooner or later, fears that it will drop to 20 USDTRY by the end of the year 2022, investors are hopeful that Turkey will recover. This is my technical analysis in the event that investors hold their positions and stabilize the Turkish lira.
U
by Mezzoforte_Privilege
12
Turkish lira - New Volatility AlertTurkish Lira snapped a five-day rally yesterday, challenging government assurances that it’s on a more stable footing after measures were introduced a week ago to stem its collapse. After the Epic rebound last week the worries seem to be returning. As you can see on the chart, what used to be 3 Liras to a Euro became, 6 then 9 and now 12...after stopping first at 20! The chart is not very encouraging for the Lira as the chart is hyper-bullish from a technical point of view with 15 euros technical level being a crucial test (statistically it's 93% likely that it will happen) before the price decides if that level will be resistance and the price will drop lower from there OR if it will be breached over in which case the 20 and even 30 will be in play for the future. Scary! Food for thought: Experts say that Turkey should increase rates from 14%, whereas rates in the West (EU, USA, UK) rates are below 1%. Any thoughts on this one? One Love, the FXPROFESSOR PS. a stable currency means happier people and economies. Better future and peace. May the Lira stabilize between 15 max and 10 low so that the people there can find some ease. Not a happy situation for anyone at the moment.
Long
by FX_Professor
5
USD/TRY Turkish Lira UpdateThis week has seen the USD/Turkish Lira exchange rate drop from a high of 18.25 TL per Dollar to a close at 11 TL per Dollar. In my previous idea published in January 2021. The concepts I laid out in that idea are still valid. The curve I drew still holds intact. RSI is still rising in the parallel channel. The recent spike has seen RSI reach even higher value than ever before. I still hold that this trend will continue until 2026 where the exchange rate will be 18 TL for the Dollar; and I'm talking about the normal stable every day rate, not a temporary spike like in the past month. Another thing to notice is the volatility. The previous spike in January 2017 reached a high that is 30% above my curve. The spike in September 2018 reached a high 71% above the curve, and lastly, the December 2021 spike reached a high 104% above the curve. As we go further in this trend, the spikes will be more volatile and we could see the rate triple in a matter of weeks, only to come back down the following week. This instability severely disturbs daily transactions both domestic and international which will push foreign investors away from Turkey. Already many investors are prepared to slowly pull out their capital as they say this instability occur right at the time of closing the books at the end of the year. Turks are already pricing their goods in Dollar and Euro having little confidence in the value of the TL. These factors will only worsen the situation in the coming years, and their effect is not seen immediately, but over months and years. Without a fundamental policy change, this trend will continue. Trust in the Turkish Central Bank is dropping as hard as the currency is. Throughout 2020, The Turkish government has been the biggest buyer of gold in the world, but they have been also the biggest seller of gold in the same year. The Central Bank is confused as is actually trading gold like an uncertain irresponsible child. The responsible thing to do is to peg the currency to either the Dollar, the Euro, Gold or even better, Bitcoin. It will cause a shock, but it will also bring security, stability and prosperity in less than a decade. You can follow this chart here . Follow me for updates on this chart and others.
Long
by TechNerdOmar
12
ridethepig | Turkish Lira Strategy🔸 Ceilings and profit taking I am starting to unwind partials in the USDTRY longs with all of these moves so full of energy in the current chapter it wont be long until the retailers and bloomberg crowd are on board. There is lots of thunder and lightening across the global economy, Turkey will catch more than the sniffles but it is prudent we stick to the plan - the same plan since 2018 (yes 2018). In this position, wave 5 was an obvious impulse, because after buyers held support they could then start to promote their positions and adding to winners. The 30% upside once looked miles away and is now shining us right in the face, will sellers dare to come out? Will other sharp speculators riding this for months/quarters want to also take profits? If buyers hold 7.82xx it will trigger the collapsing of local banks, so we make this play with a heavy heart. It would be interesting to investigate further whether we will get the intermediate highs in USDTRY, so lets leave some partials running incase we get capitulation...
by ridethepig
4
ridethepig | Thoughts on Turkish Lira📌 The capitulation After PA in December 2018 showed us the basing formation it has been all 'one way trafffic' This may lead you to wonder why it is so important to understand the fundamentals and definition of current capital flows, because it is then possible to build one's whole swing around a macro fundamentally sound trade idea, that underpins the technical ebb and flow tactics. Of course we continued to pile on longs all the way up, our confidence in the swing was building which influenced the way we were able to construct the trade and future of the operation. Here I must highlight that the move does not last for ever; a full blown +50% move in a currency crops up occasionally, in fact even more you can see the need to capitalise on these moves. So, as we approached the start of the 'flash crash' or up in this case, the following additions were made: Then suddenly it happens, the almost powder runs dry in Turkish local banks and we get the momentum higher. It shows how hollow and uninteresting currencies can be, very straightforward when used in the safe little world of macroeconomics. A quick update on the initial leg of the Q3 flows we were tracking live: The final motive to clear was nat gas being discovered, the threat of continuing higher is very high and therefore logical to trade. Funding rates are casually moving higher but with no sense of urgency which of course is linked to the entire defence system for sellers at 7.80. Now it's important to load off of the previous resistance in the first leg of Q3 at 7.20, for a move into the final macro targets above at 7.80xx right on time for the elections. Thanks as usual for keeping the feedback coming 👍 or 👎
Long
by ridethepig
ridethepig | TRYBuyers have made the transition towards capitulation. This leaves Turkey with a huge problem, and the process of the cleanse in local banks will continue. CBRT will defend with its 'customary inventiveness' very soon as they keep a stern eye on 7.8xx. It is an unfortunate position that Turkey are in. We have exploited it for some time and as soon as the banking collapse makes it way onto Bloomberg and etc it's time to start looking at closing out. Well done all those who sent their troops to the buy side, a massive +30% swing so far and counting. After the break through 6.78 it has continued to grind its way to the wearisome target. This is the real point in the manoeuvre, which forces us to stay alert and protect profits as we approach the final targets in the unstoppable macro advance. A superb live example. Thanks as usual for keeping the feedback coming 👍 or 👎
Long
by ridethepig
11
ridethepig | TRY Q3 Macro Flows 📌 The buyers constitute a formidable opponent holding the breakup and putting sellers out of action. The moves are ready, to fend off another wave of risk looks impossible now and Turkey will suffer a major hammer that may be unendurable for local banks. A break above 7.20xx will unlock the widely track 7.80xx since last year. If buyers hold (and it looks a done deal now) for this monthly closing pattern it means we are ready to march forward in August and September to cripple EM FX. But if sellers hold at the end (seems very difficult with USD shortages entering back into play) then buyers are kept busy. Naturally continue to follow the macro strategy, on account of the 2020 macro flow map: Another move that would be difficult for Turkey to defend against. If you are bearish, continue sticking the knife in via buying USDTRY because it would no longer be possible to prevent the settling above 7.20xx. 📍 The other important note to make is the lack of foreign inflows... rather the opposite, heavy outflows continue with overseas participation in Turkish bonds now at record lows, as is usually the case in the end of dictatorships. There is nowhere for the CBRT to hide.. they will have to devalue the TRY to offset the loss in access to markets. Take a look over at EURTRY which is still up at ATH's ... this retrace is profit taking in the dollar train rather than Turkey stabilisation. Stay long, look for 7.80xx as the main macro target by year-end. As usual thanks for keeping the feedback coming 👍 or 👎
Long
by ridethepig
4
ridethepig | TRY Market Commentary 2020.06.15📍 The panic leg here is because we are reaching the endgame in the economic cycle. There is a risk of Turkish banks defaulting on this leg so watch-out for any exposure to specific sectors. If the operation demonstrated is a successful attack, then we have the final ✅ for those trading the macro move called last year: EM FX looks extremely vulnerable for any overshoots on the risk front, local banks have been attempting to protect the 6.80x, if we can hold for today then we will start to see momentum kicking in. Turkey looks awful on the fundamental front and political too, a complete disaster mismanagement of the crisis. The main thing is that 7.80x should be restrained via Fed => the attack on the final base can be brutal .. let's see if it plays out.
Long
by ridethepig
6
ridethepig | Thoughts and Themes in TurkeySwings and position building We have witnessed a tremendous amount of profit taking after clearing the 7.23 targets in USDTRY and are arriving back into major support territory. The pick-up in local activity was notable as banks were forced to defend the TRY. Many clients I speak to are happy to continue buying USDTRY , the picture looks gloomy for Turkey and real money continues to sit on the bid. On the monetary side, the CBRT cutting by 50bps was widely expected although wont make much difference at this stage. EM FX will remain under pressure if we see a broad risk-off environment this week. Keeping a close ear to the wires for any updates on swap lines, those looking for positioning in USDTRY should always think about loading in a safe place. Such a shelter will render us a superb shelter when the storm hits shore... A massive 30% macro swing after an obvious mistake from Erdogan. Turkey will remain sluggish until they expose the issues underneath, the correct idea would be to put pressure on CBRT which is what markets are doing and show no signs of stopping in the Short-term. Here 7.80 would be the measured target in the shelter then profit taking can begin again. As with any swing, it is important we assess the downside to see if we find something which is to our advantage. The dollar devaluation is the only technique that the Fed can construct, the only defence left in the toolkit is -ve rates and like a scout putting up his tent we must prepare. Depending on how quickly markets begin to price negative rates in USD, we may fail to complete the mission towards 7.80.
Long
by ridethepig
3
ridethepig | TRY Market Commentary 2020.04.29All eyes on risk markets and the recent rebound reaching its final stages of exhaustion. USDTRY not giving any gains back, continuing to attack the 7.00 important psychological resistance. Buyers calmly finishing their preparations for an appropriate welcome of the next risk headline, while local banks try everything they can to defend. Happy to sit long USDTRY, if we do not see concrete measures around the Fed swap line then expect macro players to stick the knife into Turkey once more. There is little to see to the downside, I will actively look to add longs on any dips should we see them towards 6.90xx otherwise to the topside we have very very soft resistance at 7.00. A break above will open 7.235x and 7.80x main targets. The move played is a demonstration of a winning macro one, the main line comes down to the pursuit of safety; capital is forced to flee a dictatorship, but the flight itself can be beset with difficulties as more and varied restrictions are conjured. Tread extremely carefully for those invested in Turkey. Thanks as usual for keeping the support coming with likes, comments, charts, and etc!
Long
by ridethepig
ridethepig | Squeeze!Recognise that this demand for USD is squeezing USDTRY into the secondary macro swing targets at 6.60xx. This is completely inline with the forecasts and all those in leveraged positions are inclined to take profits. We are not out of the woods (yet) and large hands will continue to buy dips in USDTRY as long as we remain in risk-off flows. As widely mentioned "local banks will come under pressure and show severe distress above 7" ...increasingly this is becoming the target as weak fundamentals and dictators limit ability to invest in the currency. Expect some consolidation over the coming days before further funding issues add upward pressure via USD demand. Good luck all those buying the dips, highly recommend tracking TRY as a good benchmark to health in EM FX. Thanks for keeping the support coming with likes, as usual jump into the comments with your charts, view and etc!
Long
by ridethepig
4
ridethepig | TRY Market Commentary 2020.02.17On the Turkey side we have updates coming from the local banks, a lot of interest in USD exposure as TRY is set to suffer further via spillover effects. The EM FX is all centred around coronavirus flows and the knock-on impact this will have on global growth, here looking for a dip back towards the lows, a fresh sweep would make it very easy to trade going into the month end. On the fundamental side, Turkey remains in rough shape, those bearish on Turkey should use this as an opportunity to add heavy bullish exposure with targets up towards the 7.80xx levels: In the very immediate term EM FX will be hijacked by the ebb and flow of coronavirus headlines and the spillover effects on growth. Regular readers will know I have been a bear on Turkey for years, this environment will not attract any fresh RM inflows into Turkey - just take one look at the yields and the CBRT cutting cycle. On the technical side, the extensive breakout we traded previously has unlocked 7.80xx for the year. Reassessment on the core bearish view is only required on a break of the 4th wave support located below at 5.4xx. The upside is wide open and will trigger the dominos in the collapse of Erdogan and Turkey as we know it. We can use the long-term charts as our drivers to scale into swings more comfortably on the immediate term. Thanks as usual for keeping your support coming with likes, comments and etc!
Long
by ridethepig
ridethepig | Sticking The Knife In TRYTurkey continues to stand out on the EM FX board, USDTRY finding strong support at the 5.97xx with sizeable USD demand signals from local Turkish banks. These same banks will be quick to cover should we breach the 6.00 handle and vulnerable to a squeeze once engaged. In the very immediate term EM FX will be hijacked by the ebb and flow of coronavirus headlines and the spillover effects on growth. Regular readers will know I have been a bear on Turkey for years, this environment will not attract any fresh RM inflows into Turkey - just take one look at the yields and the CBRT cutting cycle. On the technical side, the breakout we traded unlocked 7.80xx for the year. Reassessment on the bearish view is only required on a break of the 4th wave support located below at 5.4xx. The upside is wide open and will trigger the dominos in the collapse of Erdogan and Turkey as we know it. As usual thanks for keeping your support coming with likes, comments and etc!
Long
by ridethepig
2
ridethepig | USDTRY 2020 Macro MapWith the year almost up, a good time to update the USDTRY chart. Smart money has been tracking Turkish rates, the short end has been screaming weakness and markets not interest in any more BS with the dictator in charge. S400 remains a thorn in the shoe and blackmailing to close NATO bases is leaving a nasty aftertaste. For those who have been tracking the previous swing, the underlying Lira weakness is set to continue over the coming years with an eventual grind towards the widely tracked 7.8xx target since 2018. Expecting markets to remain on the back-foot as long as Erdogan remains at the helm, this will dislocate from the USD devaluation as simply the TRY side is far weaker... all short and medium term flows will lack follow through so targeting 6.00 in Q120, and 6.50 in Q420 seems reasonable. For those really wanting to stick the knife into the bearish TRY story 7.80 in 24m. Thanks for keeping the support coming with likes, comments, charts and etc. And as usual the comments are open for all.
Long
by ridethepig
5