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New SPY Cycle Patterns Headed Into Christmas 2022Pay attention to the very real possibility that the current GAP will be filled early this week as price attempts to find a base/bottom after last week's selling. I expect moderate volatility and a change of trend as we move closer to Christmas. Initially, we'll see some moderate downward price pressure, then we'll see a shift upward near the end of this week. 12/18/2022 Inside-Breakaway 12/19/2022 POP 12/20/2022 12/21/2022 Top/Resistance 12/22/2022 Flat-Down 12/23/2022 MntmRally-012 12/24/2022 GapUp-Lower Remember, stay protected and stay safe as volatility may be excessive over the next few weeks. 2023 looks very interesting. Follow my research to learn more.
AMEX:SPYLong
by BradMatheny
SPX - Fork in the roadCurrently the S&P 500 can be seen in 3 views. I have a primary view and two alternates: First, the yellow path - my primary. After the FED comes out today, I think it'll cause a pullback in the market, but it won't be what everybody is expecting. I expect the pullback to complete a small correction from the top and pull back to around 3880-3900. Bears will get frothy and will be late to the short game. From there, a spike on "Black Friday" can take markets up to my target of 4150. Second, the green path. Difference here is an ABC correction vs a WXY correction. Minor difference, but this one sees us in a wave 3 going up to wave 5 at the same 4150 target in the first point. What I like about this count is the ABC in wave X for the first point doesn't look great as wave C into X doesn't look geometrically pleasing to me. What I don't like about this being a 1-2 is the move into wave 1 doesn't look super impulsive and looks corrective. That's why I put this as my second favorite count. Still with the same target at 4150 and probably on Friday. Last but not least is my 3rd count which isn't on the chart. It basically has the top being in ~4040 and we're in a bearish 1-2 pattern to the downside. I think this is the least probable at the moment. The move down from the top into the 38.2% retracement looks very corrective and doesn't look impulsive at all. If this is true, however, the target to the downside will come lower than we expect. Ok, now what? Now that we're at this critical juncture, a fork in the road, we have multiple scenarios that can play out here. Most of them have targets higher short term. Ultimately I think we're going to stay down here and possibly make a new yearly low before mid-December. Best case scenario, we're building a leading diagonal to create a start of a new major uptrend. Worst case scenario, we go down to 3300-3500 by EOY. Our options analysis looking into the next few weeks shows the following: Call/Put $ value and not Open Interest 11/25/2022: 92.2/7.8 12/2/2022: 85.7/14.3 12/9/2022: 75.9/24.1 12/16/2022: 98.7/1.3 (OpEx) 12/16/2022: 96/4 (normal Weekly) 12/23/2022: 68/32
CME_MINI:ES1!Short
by bitdoctor
2
Weekend Update: ES Poised to Tag 3830 Friday saw the futures contract continue to come down from the CPI spike to 4180 with a close at 3872. That turns out to be a loss of 7.5% in 2 trading days. My primary analysis is we’re in a corrective decline that will take on a 3-wave shape...this decline only being the “a” wave. It’s my primary expectation that price will bottom in this “a” wave possibly as close as the 3830 region. This is the ideal location for a bottom without extensions (purple count on the micro chart below). However, my primary expectation is minor (wave 3 of a) completed on Friday at the 3855 level and now we’re carving out our minor wave 4. If my primary micro count is what is playing out then wave 3 extended to almost the 1.618% Fib support area. Therefore, I would expect the corrective retracement to stay slightly lower than the 1.0 Fib area at 3940. From there we should expect one more decline potentially below 3830 to right around the 3800 level...slightly above the 2.0. That is the ideal pathway for the (a of c of B). Rogue Red Count Pathway (Less of a probability) Best to all, Chris
CME_MINI:ES1!
by maikisch
12
40 Bar Cycle Chart - S&P 500 SPY SPX ES1! - Updated 121722This last week, markets initially rallied on the release of the "cooler" than expected November CPI (Consumer Price Index) — only to be smacked back to reality on the comments via Federal Reserve Chairman J. Powell during the December Interest Rate Decision (FOMC) meeting this last Wednesday as "higher for longer" is the communicated pathway forward for the FED and financial markets. Whether this is all talk to put some intentional downward pressure on markets, as financial conditions have eased as of late — or this is the actual pathway forward and the bond markets are mis-pricing the projected Terminal FFR (Fed Funds Rate, now >5% into 23'), some indicators such as our (40-Bar Cycle Chart) 📉 are highlighting what is likely another leg down in financial assets as QT ramps up and higher interest rates take their toll on real economic activity. Keep in mind that behind the scenes, the FED in coordination with the U.S. Treasury are working their magic 🧙🏼‍♂️🔮 in terms of FED Net Liquidity to keep things "(dis)orderly". Here is the updated 40-Bar Cycle Chart for SPY ES1! SPX, which seems to be sitting on some major support. Given the structure of the markets after losing the $390 SPY / $3,900 ES1! SPX, along with J. Powell and other FED speaker comments post-FOMC on Friday, is the hopes for a year-end 🎅 🎄 rally wishful thinking? SPY Daily Chart Template www.tradingview.com Which camp are you in on the short-term (end of year into Q1/23') direction of markets? Camp A: We are likely we headed for new lows in Q1/23 (Fluctuating Inflation + Persistent Price/Wage Pressures + Hawkish FED). Camp B: We are likely to break the downtrend into the start of Q1/23' (Peak Inflation + Deflationary Forces + Dovish FED). Let me know your prediction in the comments below! 👇🏼
AMEX:SPYShort
by kylemusserco
ES Price to Big Confluence looking to re commit.Price is up to a big confluence that had the gravity to get it here. It's up to the Chartmojo Unwound Neutral Cloud, The space between 50% range and avwap. Also there is a big resistance trendline wth a volume shelf just above and poc just below. There are traders on each of those components and additional confluence players involved. That means more traders, targets, orders, exits, entries, stops etc. there. I will box in the consolidation on say a 30 minute chart and let traders probe up down looking for the weak side to push into. Breakout players will be lining up orders outside the box looking for the break. I will imagine different scenarios and take the one that confirms. (B.Kovner) It was a great move off the low to neutral unwound. I'll look for ticks and top 10 in es to lead the break from the box. Influencers know this is a good spot to drop new info to influence the direction out of this zone so I'll be listening to fin. news. Thesis: Price moves from confluence to confluence in waves and patterns, (force). 50% range, vwap is a neutral apex, a balance point and traders hone in on them. Helps to understand how to play a breakout and make sure its not a trap. I'll scalp es urges repeatedly and hopefully leave half in if in my direction w adaptable trailing stops if it runs. The longer price sits in the consolidation the more a volatility squeeze will build. Observe, adapt, evolve, survive. Awarenes, not interpretation. Alertness keeps thinking at bay and the cognitive biases. If x occurs do x1, if y occurs do y1. The only way around the zillion cognitive biases that plague traders.
CME_MINI:ES1!
by chartmojo
1
Morning Update: Wave 3 of wave “a” looks complete I’m supposed to be off the desk...but it’s just easier to update this way, then answer the barrage of DM’s. Looking below at a zoomed in micro count. Wave 3 has so far come right into the 1.382% Fibonacci support area of 3884.25. We’ve poked slightly below that and that’s fine. Ideally, we would anticipate an ABC of minor degree to get up the 1.0 area a 3940.25. Then ultimately down to the 3830 – 3826 level for completion. That’s the ideal path and so far, price is following an ideal path. I have warned against the temptation to buy and some of you have DM’d me about being long in the 3920 area. We’re still vulnerable to extensions lower and if that happens, the ideal fib locations get moved down...so you have to make a risk management call. If price heads to 3867 before it tags 3905 then we’re extending lower. Long is a risky trade from my perspective. If I had to go long, I would wait for the 3830 area and that’s without extensions. Best to all, Chris
CME_MINI:ES1!
by maikisch
2
Morning Update: Let the Hunger Games Begin !You may not feel like a "tribute" but make no mistake, we're all competing in the SPX hunger games now. With The Fed having concluded it's last FOMC of '22, it would appear they're are more factors at play for prices to decline, than rally . One of them being, tax related selling. Therefore it appears momentum is ( or has ) shifted and the bears may start to take control of price as soon as today. Below is the micro count, where as, if this decline ONLY takes an ideal shape, my target is 3830. If my primary count is correct, then today we're in wave 3 of "a" down and that means we should be down 100-120 (+) points today. If black is playing out we should get a pause in our decline around the 3884 level at the 1.382 Fib Support area...and then continue (unless this shapes up to a 3-wave "a" wave). Additionally, since we have not breached 3956 yet, I can not rule out only OML, and a trip back to 4100 for a wave 2, before our wave 3 decline takes place. This alternate count is represented above in purple. On CPI day, I made a comment right before I started building my short position, that the way this pattern started out told me it was corrective. I draw your attention to that comment only to say, sometimes the price pattern gives us clues. Albeit subtle, but clues help us solve the price pattern puzzle. I will reiterate, we have a topping pattern underway today. Whether this pattern is a 5-wave "a" wave, or a 3-wave "a" wave....regardless of how this completes (we're either in wave 3 or a c wave down. Those tend to be the strongest portions of the pattern. Last night I was able to sell -15 ES 4100 Dec EOM calls for enough (if I'm successful and they expire) to get my December to close out slightly profitable. It is definitely not the outcome I anticipated...but that means I'm done trading for the rest of 2022. The last thing I will remind you of today, is the red count. Again, this is not my primary or secondary count, but it is still a possibility. That chart is below. Again, over the last week, I mentioned about buying the market as it declines and to be weary of that temptation. Understand that price is in a precarious position. If the pattern plays out like I am expecting in my black count, they're will be buying opportunities next month that are sustainable. I'm not talking about scalping. To get in front of what I think is starting today...is a kin to a freight train. I wouldn't recommend it. Best to all, Chris
CME_MINI:ES1!
by maikisch
10
Trade Plan 12/15/2022 TP1> if we manage to Trade/Bid above MAIN POC 4078, we can test > 4108 > 4141 > 4186 > 4207 > 4221 TP2> if we Open/Trade below MAIN POC 4078 > we can test > 4054 > 4035 > 3995 > 3980 > 3960 > 3934 > 3914 (LIS - Bulls Trapped) Volume Profile 12/14/2022 - Unfair High 4091 (Below Y High) FOMC DUMP, and no BUYERS. Volume accumulation setup > It is forming since yesterday when SELLERS were super aggressive, strong SELLERS entering their positions in Rotation Area, with a clear change on the Volume Profile TREND. Strong Sellers who were accumulating their positions are likely to defend their positions and their interests. So, when the price returns to the volume accumulation area > MAIN POC 4078 (12/14) and MAIN POC 4054 (12/13), Strong Sellers start to defend their positions aggressively. This means that strong buyers start aggressive buying activity to drive the price upwards again. Strong sellers defend their short positions by aggressive sell-off which moves the price lower again. Here is a picture to demonstrate this (Short trade scenario): *This is a 50/50 Game, trade plan & risk management and trade management is mandatory
CME_MINI:ES1!Short
by IronMan_Trader
Evening Update: Breach $3997 then $3956...3830 is the targetOne of the many reasons I don't pay attention to the content of economic news is market reaction rarely lines up the news. It matches the traders sentiment obviously...but many times the news says one thing and prices say another. Yesterday the market spiked up initially on what most would consider a better than expected CPI report and then spent the vast majority of the day coming down. Then the market got precisely what it was anticipating from The Fed in the form of a 50% rate hike vs. a 75% one. The market goes down. The excuse is the Dot Plot...But I could have said I wore a red short today and that is why we went down. It's stupid and baseless. I was expecting lower yesterday in a local top to start a downtrend...if I am any indication of sentiment at large...then the market was ultimately looking for a means to reconcile lower anyway. Needless to say, we appear to be headed lower. Todays low of 3997 is the first price point that needs to get breached and then 3956....for confirmation. If that happens I am targeting 3830 for just the "a" wave of this B wave decline...which should reconcile in the low 3700's late January-beginning of February 2023. If price will cooperate, we can then spend the majority of 2023 rallying back to the 4300 area...before it's get's ugly again. Best to all, Chris
CME_MINI:ES1!
by maikisch
Morning Update: Fed DayLike most Fed days it is not my expectation for price to make any large moves until the afternoon. With yesterday's roller coaster ride in the futures, nothing really changed. Below is the intraday SPX chart. Despite all the fireworks in futures, the cash index remained contained. My assessment of the cash index is unless we can make a new high today...this pattern only requires a c wave down to approximately the 3920 level for minimum completion. In the cash index A=C right where it started. But we're not trading the cash index, we're trading the futures contract. I can reconcile the two but the futures still hangs on to the potential of OMH. I'll update tonight after the Fed announcement. I would be remiss if I did not warn you about protection, stops...etc. The volatility of Fed Days can mimic yesterday's action. Be careful. Best to all, Chris
CME_MINI:ES1!
by maikisch
1
SPX pathway into 19th lowThis is the best I can come up with today. i didnt do much research today. Want to see a lower low in am and bounce after the Interest rate decision, then the whole move will be faded after Powell starts talking. Short around 2am, buy am low for the interest rate decision and sell that rip (if we get one) right before Powell starts talking. Thats my plan for tomorrow I have a price to short at 4044-47SPX and 4080SPX, those are the levels to watch, especially the second number. ES resistance is at 4090-99 Its my BD tomorrow, might be less active, but will try to tweet my trades. Resistance levels are the same - 4028-34SPX - 4100-4110SPX Main support on closing level is 3933SPX. I still think we should see 3748SPX gap filled this month and 3212SPX early (Q1) next year
SP:SPX
by RealTima
20
US Stocks are about to EXPLODE higher. Here we goThe reflation trade in the US stock market (Wave-5) is about to explode above the GREEN resistance line. Far too many people continue to believe the US markets will collapse on some Fed/Economic crisis event. What they don't understand is the US is in a different position right now. Yes, deflation trends may continue for REAL ASSETS (homes, cars, commodities, others), but as long as the US economy continues to tick along (employment, wages, consumers), billions of dollars every month flow into IRAs, 401Ks, and other investment assets. This is what I call the "economic bias" related to money flow and US dollar depreciation. Over time, the natural process of the US/global economy is to GROW - not CONTRACT. Therefore, we need to be prepared for a reflation trade (similar to 2003-05 when the US markets move upward after the 9/11 event). Follow my research.
FX:SPX500Long
by BradMatheny
Evening Update: I'm not gonna Sugarcoat itI'll spend a total of a couple sentences surmising my trading day which ended at about 845 am EST and then I slept all day. I will not go into the details of what happened...you can read my previous posts for that. But today could best be described as DUMB on my part. Sure in retrospect had it gone the other way I wouldn't describe it as that...but even if it had... I would've made this mistake in the future. I got no sleep last night, and decided to would enter the market on a day in which I was expecting volatility. That's not smart...that's hubris. One could say, well the analysis was bad, not that you had no sleep. Fair point given the results...but in truth, I was not expecting that. So with that...I have to move on. Today's price action so far is only 3 waves up. Even though we breached the 4110 recent high, and the September high of 4175 we do not have a completed 5 wave pattern up. As of now I'm counting today's spike as a "b" wave. Pretty much no change to my previous analysis except the "b" wave made a higher high. Here's another look of what I'm referring to but in a line chart (on a closing basis) without the spike up and down. If we do not trade lower than 4026 tonight than it's possible we get another high. Any trade below 4026 and I have no choice but to assume we topped today. I will wait for more price action to make a better determination as to direction. Suffice to say...today set me back in my determination to juice my annual P&L before end of year. I will never trade tired again. Best to all, Chris
CME_MINI:ES1!
by maikisch
21
ES support @ 4018 now becomes critical trigger levelThis big rotation to the upside, after the CPI number, presents a new $4018 support level on the ES for traders. The Fed rate decision tomorrow may send markets briefly below this level, but watch for a reflation trade to setup after the Fed comments. If my research is correct, a melt-up trend has already been established. I expect the US Dollar to melt back above 105 while Gold and Silver continue to melt upward as well. The US markets may continue this upward trend into Q1:2023. Follow my research.
CME_MINI:ES1!Long
by BradMatheny
Trade Alert: Short -3 ES at 4045.75This is a speculative trade. I'll add to it into 4068 and if wrong stop out just over the .768. The manner in which this pattern started off in my opinion can only be corrective. Therefore I'm restriking my short. Suffice to say, If I'm right, the entry opportunities will be few and far between. If price only comes into the area where I'm counting a micro wave 4 and consolidates...I will close this position. I'll elaborate as the day goes on. Best to all, Chris
CME_MINI:ES1!Short
by maikisch
20