Es!1
9/27 Daily Recap, Outlook, and Trading PlanRecap
The ultra-bearish confluence we found ourselves in last week has continued with the most bearish two weeks of the year seasonally in late September and the breakdown of the ES chart pattern at 4472. This has resulted in a sell-off with a major magnet at the 4335 level. Despite a brief green day and a 45 point bounce, further revisiting of the 4335 level has indicated bad news for the bulls.
Key Structures
The large, multi-month triangle pattern remains the primary pattern. The bulls need to reclaim this pattern at 4485 to set a "sustained bottom". The 4377-83 level has been a significant ceiling and the 4336 level remains the most important level, acting as the backtest of the 9 month base.
Support Levels
Support levels to watch for are: 4308, 4291-96 (major), 4280 (major), 4269, 4253, 4232-36 (major), 4219, 4212, 4205, 4190, 4181, 4165-70 (major), 4147, 4135, 4125 (major).
Resistance Levels
Resistance levels to note are: 4314, 4322, 4335-38 (major), 4351-49 (major), 4360, 4366 (major), 4377-4383 (major), 4391, 4400, 4417 (major), 4424, 4439-41 (major), 4449, 4455, 4467 (major), 4485-88 (major).
Trading Plan
The bear case continuation begins again on the fail of 4290. The best shorts are always backtests on bounces. One possibility would be the loss of today’s low, perhaps 4307 for the final flush into support above. The 4290 breakdown would also be a short, but I’d need extensive acceptance here first then I’d be getting short very high 4270s for a large sell leg again into the 4230s.
The bull case would involve ES holding 4291 as the absolute lowest, then reclaiming that level. I’d need to see 4335-38 test, then a sell at the level. Then I’d need to see price return there to accept it and build a base, after which I’d be looking long, perhaps high 4330s.
Wrap Up
We’re approaching a key support area between 4290 and 4297. This area marks the 50-day moving average and prior swing highs from August. As long as prices hold above 4290-4297, the index may be poised to bounce and put in a relief rally after the recent sell-off. However, if 4290 fails to hold as support, we could see a test of the 4280 level which marks the 200-day moving average. Below 4280, the next major support is around 4232-4236 which was the June low. In summary, 4290-4297 is an important support zone to watch. A bounce from here could signal a relief rally, but breaking below would open the door for a retest of the 200-day MA at 4280 and potentially the June lows.
Disclosure: This is not financial advice and is for informational purposes only. Please consult a professional financial advisor before making any investment decision
9/26 Daily Recap, Outlook, and Trading PlanRecap
Last week ended with significant selling, the most we've seen since the bull market began nearly a year ago. The selling was anticipated due to a breakdown of a triangle pattern after the FOMC last Wednesday. We experienced four consecutive red days, a rarity, with the largest red day since March 2023 occurring last Thursday.
Market Gauge
🔴 Bearish
The Markets Overnight
🌏 Asia: Down
🌍 Europe: Down
🌎 US Index Futures: Down
🛢 Crude Oil: Down
💵 Dollar: Down slightly
🧐 Yields: Down
🔮 Crypto: Down slightly
World News
Asian stocks lower on more problems in China’s property developers.
Key Structures
The primary pattern remains the large, multi-month triangle, which we broke down last Wednesday. Bulls need to reclaim this triangle at 4483 to set a sustained bottom. Below there, 4418 is key, with clearance triggering back to 4470+. The 4377-83 trendline, connecting the major swing lows of June 26th and August, is also important to watch. The single most important support level below price right now is 4336, a very significant level. Its defense is crucial for the broader bull market.
Support Levels
Supports are: 4366 (major), 4353 (major), 4341, 4335 (major), 4322, 4315-13 (major), 4297, 4290 (major), 4280, 4268, 4253 (major), 4232-37 (major), 4212, 4205, 4190 (major), 4175, 4165 (major), 4150.
Resistance Levels
Resistances are: 4377, 4383 (major), 4393, 4400, 4415-4418 (major), 4431, 4439, 4449, 4460-65 (major), 4477, 4484 (major), 4496 (major), 4507, 4523 (major), 4531, 4539 (major).
Trading Plan
The bull case today would see a base build in the 4353-4383 zone, then a push higher. The push would be level to level, targeting 4393, then heading up to 4415-18. The bear case starts on the fail of 4335. A higher risk short is at 4353.
Wrap Up
If 4353 fails, we retest 4335, which is a must hold — if that fails, we fall to 4322, then 4313-15.
Disclosure: This is not financial advice and is for informational purposes only. Please consult a professional financial advisor before making any investment decision
Navigating the S&P500 for different market scenarios ES, SPY, Multi-time frame analysis.
Welcome back to another market breakdown.
Today, I've got an exciting video for you as I dive into the current state of the S&P 500 and explore various strategies based on different market scenarios. Whether you're an experienced investor or just getting started, this video will help you better understand how to navigate the dynamic world of the stock market.
Trade safely,
Trader Leo
9/25 Daily Recap, Outlook, and Trading PlanRecap
Mid-market update. Last week, the ES put in the first relief pop of the new leg down. More downside is expected this week. Last week saw a powerful confluence of FOMC, a major multi-month triangle breakdown, and the most bearish two weeks of the year seasonally.
Market Gauge
🔴 Bearish
The Markets Overnight
🌏 Asia: Mixed, China very weak
🌍 Europe: Down a lot
🌎 US Index Futures: Down
🛢 Crude Oil: Down slightly
💵 Dollar: Up a bit
🧐 Yields: Up sharply
🔮 Crypto: Down
World News
The downward price movement continues to be the catalyst that feeds on itself. Last week's selling was primarily due to the breakdown of the ES triangle pattern following the FOMC meeting. The triangle breakdown targeted 4418-24, then 4385, and we reached the 4385 target in one session.
Key Structures
The large, multi-month triangle remains the primary pattern, with resistance at 4542 and support at 4473-75. Key supports worth watching are 4385, 4366, and 4335.
Support Levels
Supports are: 4366 (major), 4353 (major), 4344, 4332-35 (major), 4316, 4307, 4296, 4288-90 (major), 4280, 4268, 4262 (major), 4253, 4232-38 (major), 4215, 4200-05 (major), 4192.
Resistance Levels
Resistances are: 4366 (major), 4370, 4380-83 (major), 4400, 4412, 4418-24 (major), 4439, 4448, 4465 (major), 4470 (major), 4485, 4496 (major), 4505-08 (major), 4516, 4522-25 (major), 4533, 4543 (major).
Trading Plan
Bears remain in control and any bull case at this point is for a relief bounce only. Bulls have nothing to be excited about until 4418-24 clears, or until we hit 4335 and explode off it with force.
Wrap Up
We remain in difficult conditions here and the plan is to be as reactive as possible and keep prediction to a minimum. The general lean is that the low is not in by any means, and there is a high chance that 4335 tests this week — 4338.25 already touched today.
Disclosure: This is not financial advice and is for informational purposes only. Please consult a professional financial advisor before making any investment decision
#ES Day Trading Prep Week 9.17-9.22Levels to Watch :
Resistance 4508.75-02.50 ? Key Resistance 4532.50-24.25-19
Targets if Over 4548.75-43.75 // 4570.62.50
Support Prev Day Low 4497.25-94.75-90 ? Key Support 4487.25-79.75
Targets if Under VAH, 4465.25-60.25 // 4449.75-45-34.75 ( Needs to break/hold for ANY continuation ) // 4422.75-18.75 // 4403-4392.25
Range Edge 4375.75-4359.50
Last Week :
Thursday/Friday after the contract roll we ended up in key bigger time frame Range Edge area at 4508-25, we consolidated around it, held above 4508-02 which brought more buying to give us a push and hold over 4532-24 Resistance midweek. From there market was able to take out 4548.75-43.75 and make a move towards our HTF Supply and next target at 4570-62.50. RTH failed to test it and instead we got a push in, consolidation and fail at that area during Thursday Globex and once we got under the Supply and 4448-43 that gave us a nice end of week sell back towards Previous Resistance and then Support at 4508-02 which we ended up breaking and closing under.
This Week :
Tonight we are set to open under our previous Balance of 4548-43 // 4508-02 area after a failed break out above at the end of the week. Question this week is this just trapped supply from our 4570-62.50 area or is this bigger selling that could possibly give us continuation this week towards our lower targets?
Or do we get consolidating around Key Support / Previous Day Low areas and or find strong enough buying to push us back over 4508.75 and keep us in that balance which chance at higher targets?
For the Downside :
If the Market fails to to get over 4508.75-02.50 and hold above then we could see a break of Previous Day low and test of 4487.25-79.75 Key Support, depending on volume it could take time to get through but IF we do and start holding under that could give us more selling to continue through VAH towards lower targets -- Contract Roll Gap 4465.25-60.25, We have Swing Stops and Mean at 4449.75-34.75 area if we get through 65-60. This would be area to watch and hold under for any continuation, if we do get through it and get more selling we have 4422.75-18.75 and untested after we broke back in from below VAL area at 4416.50-05.50 as potential targets. With next area to watch at 4403-4392.25.
For the Upside :
Holding under 4524.25-4508.75-02.50 area means continued weakness, longs would need to be done from lower Support areas either on strong bounces or after some consolidations, if we the selling strong then need to be careful and be ready to exit those quicker. If we do get a hold around Previous Day Low / Key Support area or get strong buying to give us a push back over 4508.75 and hold then we could target a move back towards 4519-24.25 which would be Key Resistance for any continuation higher this week. If we do get a push through 4524.25-32.50 we then could target 4570-62.50 RTH test but for now a lot of Supply above so need to be careful.
We could get more sideways balancing action in this 4480-90 // 4525 areas unless we can take out and hold under/over targets, Structure under is not very strong so would be surprising to not see any continuation at least towards 65-60 if we can hold under 4508 but we will have to wait and see what we get.
9/21 Daily Recap, Outlook, and Trading PlanRecap
Midday Friday afternoon update. The market experienced a bearish trend with high volatility last week, triggered by the breakdown of the 2-month triangle pattern and the start of the most bearish seasonal cycle of the year. Despite reaching the 4385 level, it's unclear whether a bounce is imminent. The downward trend began with a structure breakdown and will end when resistance clears or a failed breakdown occurs.
Market Gauge
🔴 Neutral to Bearish
The Markets Overnight
🌏 Asia: Down slightly
🌍 Europe: Up
🌎 US Index Futures: Up
🛢 Crude Oil: Down
💵 Dollar: Down a bit
🧐 Yields: Down a bit
🔮 Crypto: Down a bit
World News
US and global markets plunge on hawkish FOMC statement and dot plot, signaling higher rates for longer.
Bank of England and Swiss National Bank leave rates unchanged.
Key Structures
The primary pattern is the large, multi-month triangle in yellow with resistance at 4542 and support at 4473-75 (thin grey line). Key supports to watch are 4385, 4366, and 4335. The "final bottom" is only in when the original pattern that started the sell-off reclaims.
Support Levels
Major support levels are at 4366, 4355, 4330-35, 4322, 4316, 4296, 4285-90, 4268, and 4253. The next major support down is 4366 with 4355 below there.
Resistance Levels
Major resistance levels are at 4382-85, 4425-18, 4442-39, 4469, 4473-75, 4485, 4505, 4515-20, and 4542-45. The first resistance up is the 4382-85 zone.
Trading Plan
There is no bull case until a resistance clears, with the first being the 4382-85 zone. A safe bet for longs are always failed breakdowns or the reclaim of a resistance. For shorts, the safer bet is on backtests. The bear case remains strong, but there is high short squeeze risk. Shorts from here are best done on backtests rather than breakdowns.
Wrap Up
After a week of high volatility and a bearish trend, the market remains uncertain. It's important to remember that the goal is wealth building by stacking and compounding gains day after day, month after month, year after year, not catching every move. As such, trade with caution and protect your profits.
Disclosure: This is not financial advice and is for informational purposes only. Please consult a professional financial advisor before making any investment decision
ES larger timeframe break and retestES is only 30 points away from it's breakout point in June around the 4337 level. For nine months, ES failed to break this level, and when it finally did it never retested it. Now, we are close. Will this be a buying opportunity or will ES flush straight through?
I personally will be looking to long this area.
9/21 Daily Recap, Outlook, and Trading PlanRecap
Yesterday's FOMC day was filled with volatility and traps, making it a challenging day for trading. ES finished below the support of the key triangle structure at 4470, indicating a bearish sentiment. Despite the volatility, smart trading strategies that focused on failed breakdowns and level-to-level profit management yielded lucrative results.
Market Gauge
🔴 Bearish
The Markets Overnight
🌏 Asia: Down
🌍 Europe: Down a lot
🌎 US Index Futures: Down a lot
🛢 Crude Oil: Up
💵 Dollar: Up
🧐 Yields: Up strongly
🔮 Crypto: Down
World News
US and global markets plunge on hawkish FOMC statement and dot plot, signalling higher rates for longer.
Bank of England and Swiss National Bank leave rates unchanged.
Key Structures
The large, multi-month triangle in yellow remains the primary pattern. Resistance is at 4550 now, with support at 4473. This pattern has driven trading all month and yesterday we lost support, indicating that bears are in control. A reclaim of this level would see ES push back to 4496, and likely clear it for a move back towards triangle resistance.
Support Levels
Key support levels for today include 4439-35 (Major), 4425-18 (major), 4407, 4400 (major), 4390, 4382-85 (major), 4377, and 4366 (major).
Resistance Levels
Resistance levels to watch out for today are 4448, 4460, 4465, 4473 (major), 4486-88, 4496, 4504 (major), 4514 (major), 4524, 4532, 4542(major), 4548 (major), 4556, 4562, 4566, 4574, 4580-85 (major), 4595-4600, and 4609 (major).
Trading Plan
The plan for today is to stay nimble and non-biased, taking level to level pieces and getting to the sidelines. The bearish sentiment means that bounces are likely to fade and supports to melt through. The most important level to track is 4473, which was yesterday’s breakdown point. If we get a relief bounce, the first touch of 4473 probably represents a good short.
Wrap Up
Post-FOMC trading is complex and requires a reactive approach. The general lean for today is a possible relief bounce to backtest the 4472 zone with 4439 and 4425 being possible spots. ES is likely to reject on that backtest. Always remember to protect your profits and trade smartly, even in volatile market conditions.
Disclosure: This is not financial advice and is for informational purposes only. Please consult a professional financial advisor before making any investment decisions
9/20 Daily Recap, Outlook, and Trading PlanRecap
This week demonstrated the effectiveness of straightforward technical analysis. We kicked off the week eyeing a target of 4565 and touched a high of 4566, validating a simple trendline resistance in a multi-month triangle. A pullback was expected and did indeed materialize.
Market Gauge
🟡 Neutral
The Markets Overnight
🌏 Asia: Down slightly
🌍 Europe: Up
🌎 US Index Futures: Up
🛢 Crude Oil: Down
💵 Dollar: Down a bit
🧐 Yields: Down a bit
🔮 Crypto: Down a bit
World News
It’s Fed day. Rates will remain unchanged, but the market will be focused on the dot plot showing FOMC member’s interest-rate projections.
Key Structures
The large, multi-month triangle in yellow remains the primary pattern, with 4470 support and 4552 resistance. 4542 is a multi-month magnet level, and 4496-4505 has been a persistent support since September 6th.
Support Levels
Key support levels for today are 4485 (major), 4470-73 (major), 4460, 4452, 4439 (major), 4433, 4419-24 (major), 4400-04, 4386 (major), 4374, 4366-64, 4355 (major),4343, 4336.
Resistance Levels
Key resistance levels for today are 4496, 4506-08 (major), 4515 (major), 4522, 4532, 4537, 4542, 4551-56 (major), 4561, 4566, 4573, 4580 (major), 4590, 4597, 4609 (major), 4618, 4624, 4634, 4643, 4647, 4657 (major), 4665 (major).
Trading Plan
Today is FOMC day, notorious for its volatility. The plan is to trade light, preferably not trading the action after the meeting at all, especially if a level-to-level piece can be taken before. The key supports to watch are 4485 and 4470-73. If 4470-73 cracks sustainably, we could see a violent, sustained leg down. All longs after that are high-risk knife catches to be done at your own discretion.
Wrap Up
Today is FOMC day, so the market is poised for volatility. The key is to take it light, protect profits, and watch. On a regular day, the lean would be that ES can base above 4485 (4470-73 lowest), then pop higher to 4506-08, 4515, dip, then push back up towards triangle resistance. If 4470 fails, down we go.
Disclosure: This is not financial advice and is for informational purposes only. Please consult a professional financial advisor before making any investment decisions
9/19 Daily Recap, Outlook, and Trading PlanRecap
This week demonstrated the effectiveness of straightforward technical analysis. We kicked off the week eyeing a target of 4565 and touched a high of 4566, validating a simple trendline resistance in a multi-month triangle. A pullback was expected and did indeed materialize.
Market Gauge
🔴 Neutral to Bearish
The Markets Overnight
🌏 Asia: Down
🌍 Europe: Mixed near unchanged
🌎 US Index Futures: Slightly lower
🛢 Crude Oil: Up strongly
💵 Dollar: Down slightly
🧐 Yields: Up
🔮 Crypto: Up
World News
FOMC rate announcement set for 2 pm (EST).
Key Structures
The enduring yellow triangle is still the dominant pattern, now with adjusted support at 4465.25 and resistance at 4499.50. The 4542 level continues to be a multi-month magnet. A breakout above this level could suggest a potential upward move out of the triangle. The 4505-4496 zone remains relevant, especially after the first week of September showed some base-building in this area.
Support Levels
Supports now sit at: 4465.25 (major), 4473-4467, 4485, 4496, 4504 (major), 4445-43 (major), 4424, 4418 (major), 4400, 4388-91 (major), 4377, 4363-65 (major).
Resistance Levels
Resistances have been adjusted to: 4499.50 (major), 4512, 4515, 4525-27, 4537, 4542 (major), 4547, 4556, 4566 (major), 4578, 4580-85 (major), 4590, 4601, 4609 (major), 4620 (major), 4627, 4634, 4643, 4647-54 (major).
Trading Plan
The 4504-4496 region remains a crucial support area. Instead of entering long positions here, consider waiting for a dip to 4485 or lower and then a reclaim of yesterday's lows for a bounce play. If the market keeps sliding, 4465.25 becomes the last line of defense as it's the new triangle support.
In terms of resistance, 4499.50 and 4542 are pivotal points for potential sell-offs. If ES consolidates between 4496 and yesterday's highs, it could be a good spot to consider adding long exposure.
Wrap Up
Post-FOMC decisions, ES may still have some room for a relief rally. This scenario remains valid as long as the 4496-4504 zone holds, targeting 4542. If 4496 gives way, caution is advised, with 4465.25 serving as the ultimate support for a deeper sell-off.
Disclosure: This is not financial advice and is for informational purposes only. Please consult a professional financial advisor before making any investment decisions
9/18 Daily Recap, Outlook, and Trading PlanRecap
This week was a testament to the power of simple technical analysis. The week began with a clear target in mind: 4565. The week's high was 4566, which was not due to complex economic reasons but rather a simple trendline resistance of a multi-month triangle. A significant pullback was anticipated and it occurred.
Market Gauge
🟡 Neutral
The Markets Overnight
🌏 Asia: Mixed
🌍 Europe: Down
🌎 US Index Futures: Down slightly
🛢 Crude Oil: Up
💵 Dollar: Unchanged
🧐 Yields: Up a bit
🔮 Crypto: Up strongly
World News
Numerous major central banks including the FOMC, BoJ, and BoE meeting this week as uncertainty around inflation and rates weighs on markets.
Key Structures
The large, multi-month triangle in yellow remains the primary pattern. 4465 level being support and resistance being 4560ish now. 4542-45 is a multi-month magnet level. This level has been important since June and will remain a pivot to trade around. 4505 is a key support level that must hold for bulls.
Support Levels
Supports are: 4496, 4489, 4478 (major), 4468, 4463-65 (major), 4449 (major), 4439, 4432, 4424, 4415-18 (major), 4400, 4388-91 (major).
Resistance Levels
Resistances are: 4505 (major), 4511 (major) 4522-25, 4532 (major), 4537, 4542-45 (major), 4549, 4556-4558 (major), 4569, 4574, 4580-84 (major), 4591, 4603, 4609 (major), 4614, 4622, 4633, 4643-45 (major), 4653 (major).
Trading Plan
Bull case today: Bears control until a resistance clears, and that is the 4505-12 zone right now. This would start a push up the levels to 4532, possibly as high as 4542-45.
Bear case today: Bears have the ball still. The obvious magnets on the downside are 4479, then 4463 triangle support.
Wrap Up
We just had a 65 point single day selloff and it's extremely hard to have any predictability from here. My general lean though is that we can relief bounce ideally from last Friday’s lows. This would look something like test 4505-11, perhaps dip or base, then push up to the 4530s. If ES clearly struggles to get off the floor and above 4505-11, then we continue down directly with 4494 a possible trigger. Magnet remains 4479 then 4463.
Disclosure: This is not financial advice and is for informational purposes only. Please consult a professional financial advisor before making any investment decisions
Weekly SPX Outlook week ending Sep 22SPX 4450 is still the key line in the sand for bulls to defend and bears to overtake. Even if Bears win, there's strong support at 4425-4400. Belo 4400 is where the fun begins down to 4350-4300.
If Bulls hold 4450 we could attempt a gap fill above back to 4500
Learn To Trade Breakout/Flags More Efficiently - Part IIn my first tutorial, I tried to show how price channels can be used to identify and validate strong trade setups. Additionally, I attempted to show you how to identify better trade setups from what I consider invalid trade setups.
Understanding and maintaining at least a 2:1 Reward-to-risk factor for any trade you consider taking is essential. Secondly, it is essential to understand and use proper allocation levels for trades.
The simple way to understand allocation levels is to focus on the RISK amount. If your trade risks $5 per share and you can't afford to risk $500 on this trade, then you should NOT attempt to trade 100 shares of this stock.
Set your risk level based on how much you intend to risk for the trade - nothing more.
If you can only risk $250, then you would only trade 50 shares.
If you can only risk $125, then you would only trade 25 shares.
Learning to find and identify proper trade setups on Daily and Weekly charts is critical for success in the long run. I firmly believe price tells us everything we need to know about a chart, and indicators reflect price.
As you continue to learn some of the techniques I use in various price chart setups, I hope you can refine your techniques to become better traders.
I will likely create a PART II and PART III version of these types of advanced trade setups.
Hope you enjoy.
9/15 Daily Recap, Outlook, and Trading PlanRecap
After a choppy Wednesday, traders were rewarded with a solid move on Thursday. I had been long at 4503-97 since Wednesday morning after CPI, adding to my position at 4518 at close. This was due to a failed breakdown, a core setup that often traps shorts and allows for long entries. We saw a 60+ point follow through off this. As predicted, we rallied to 4540ish, saw a dip, then continued up to 4560+. We are now up 65 points from Wednesday’s low, but with heavy resistances overhead.
Market Gauge
🟢 Neutral to Bullish
The Markets Overnight
🌏 Asia: Up
🌍 Europe: Up
🌎 US Index Futures: Down a bit
🛢 Crude Oil: Up slightly
💵 Dollar: Unchanged
🧐 Yields: Up
🔮 Crypto: Down
World News
UAW strike closes Ford, GM, and Stellantis factories.
Key Structures
A large triangle has formed with 4460 level being support and resistance being 4562-65. This is now the core pattern for September and everything between 4460-4565 is a broad chop range. These patterns have a mild 60% upward resolution bias. The 4460 support level connects the two rising August lows. Higher lows means uptrend and if August 20th was “the bottom” for any type of sustained uptrend - that will need to hold.
Support Levels
The major support levels are 4543-45, 4529-32, 4506, 4476, 4461, 4425, 4418, and 4392. These are not comprehensive and some are simply select major structures to take note of.
Resistance Levels
The major resistance levels are 4562, 4573, 4580-4584, 4609, 4640, and 4648. We are closing Thursday at major resistance, having arrived finally at triangle resistance — noted in the dashed green and red horizontal lines. This is a big level, a complex level, and a level that will take time to work through.
Trading Plan
My trading plan for Friday is to trade small and seldomly, with the only objective being to protect my profits from this week. I have no edge after a large one directional move and I expect messy, complex action. For those longing, I would recommend small size and freefall risk is high. Only levels marked as major are spots for knife catches. If we continue the push higher, for those looking for counter-trends 4580-84 would be one spot to engage as would 4609.
Wrap Up
We've just had the clean move I had been waiting on all week and now is time for price discovery and waiting for price to show its hand. We are currently at a major resistance zone, with the RSI highly extended and the easy money is made on the long side. Given I have exceeded my profit average for the week by a significant margin, I will largely be sidelined on Friday.
Disclosure: This is not financial advice and is for informational purposes only. Please consult a professional financial advisor before making any investment decisions.
9/14 Daily Recap, Outlook, and Trading PlanRecap
Wednesday was a typical CPI trading day characterized by traps and volatility. After the data release, we saw an initial drop, followed by a 30+ point rally, confirming the prediction that the first move after release would fade. Despite this, we ended up in the same 4500-4540 range we've been in for all of September.
Market Gauge
🟢 Neutral to Bullish
The Markets Overnight
🌏 Asia: Up
🌍 Europe: Up
🌎 US Index Futures: Up
🛢 Crude Oil: Up strongly
💵 Dollar: Up a bit
🧐 Yields: Down slightly
🔮 Crypto: Up
World News
More stimulus for the Chinese economy as the PBoC lower the bank reserve rate
Key Structures
A large triangle has formed with 4459 level being support and resistance being 4565-70. This is the core pattern for September and everything between 4459-4570 is a broad chop range. The pattern has a mild 60% upward resolution bias, but traders need to be prepared to trade it whichever way it breaks.
Support Levels
Supports are at 4516, 4512, 4502 (major), 4496, 4486, 4468-72 (major), 4459 (major), 4443, 4438 (major), 4425, 4418, 4410, 4400, 4392(major), 4377, 4366, 4355 (major).
Resistance Levels
Resistances are at 4522 (major), 4528, 4532-35 (major), 4540-42 (major), 4549, 4556, 4565-70 (major), 4573, 4580, 4585 (major), 4598, 4605-08 (major), 4617, 4624, 4633 (major), 4642, 4647-50 (major), 4658, 4666 (major), 4673.
Trading Plan
Bulls control as long as 4502 keeps holding. If it does, resistance of the triangle at 4565-70 remains the macro target. If 4502 fails, bears win and traders should consider shorting for a move down the levels, likely to 4460 at least. Trading within the 4500-4540 range is unpredictable and price will play the levels.
Wrap Up
Despite the volatility and traps of CPI trading days, Wednesday showed that with careful planning and strategy, it's possible to navigate these challenges successfully. The key is to wait for the initial trap or two, take profits at the first major level, then get out and hold a runner in case we trend. This approach makes these difficult, trap-filled days very high win rate, easy sessions.
Disclosure: This is not financial advice and is for informational purposes only. Please consult a professional financial advisor before making any investment decisions.
9/13 Daily Recap, Outlook, and Trading PlanRecap
The market experienced a choppy session yesterday with both bulls and bears getting trapped. The price confusion was expected due to today's CPI. After a 60-point relief bounce from Thursday's low to Monday's highs, the market spent much of yesterday swinging in a wide, bi-directional range. The session was spent mostly in the 4520-4540 ping pong zone.
Market Gauge
🟡 Neutral
The Markets Overnight
🌏 Asia: Down
🌍 Europe: Down
🌎 US Index Futures: Up slightly
🛢 Crude Oil: Up
💵 Dollar: Down slightly
🧐 Yields: Up
🔮 Crypto: Up
World News
Monthly core inflation prints much hotter than expected at 0.3% vs the 0.2% consensus.
Key Structures
A large triangle has formed with 4454 level being support and resistance being 4570ish now. This is now the core pattern for September and everything between 4454-4570 is a broad chop range/play ground for ES. This could easily fill out all month. These patterns have a mild 60% upward resolution bias.
Support Levels
Supports for the ES are at: 4504, 4498-96 (major), 4486, 4473 (major), 4463-66, 4449 (major), 4434, 4424, 4418 (major), 4395-4400 (major), 4386, 4367, 4356 (major), 4337 (major), 4316, 4307, 4285-90 (major).
Resistance Levels
Resistances are: 4516, 4525 (major), 4532 (major), 4540-42, 4545-47 (major), 4556, 4562, 4569-72 (major), 4581, 4585 (major), 4590, 4597, 4605-4609 (major), 4615, 4630-33 (major), 4638, 4648(major), 4658, 4666 (major), 4673, 4681 (major).
Trading Plan
Today is CPI Day and it is expected to be one of the most volatile, random, difficult, and trap-filled days of the year. The introduction of an external data catalyst introduces an enormous amount of sometimes impossible to trade algo-driven noise. The rule for trading these days is to size down and do not over-trade. There is absolutely no reason to incur a large loss on a day that all traders know fully in advance will be challenging. It is not uncommon to see 100+ point moves both ways.
Wrap Up
In summary, there is no predictability to CPI days and one can only know the levels and be prepared to react. These are my least favorite days to trade of the year. If it were a normal day (which is all I can go by), my general lean is as long as 4503-4497 defends, that we push back to 4540s, perhaps dip once more, then try the run to triangle resistance at 4569-72. That is the decision point and it needs to breakout to formally start the next leg up. 4497 fail and we work down the levels.
Disclosure: This is not financial advice and is for informational purposes only. Please consult a professional financial advisor before making any investment decisions.
9/12 Daily Recap, Outlook, and Trading PlanRecap
After a major 110 point sell at the start of September, last Thursday saw the formal setup for a relief rally leg. This setup followed through with a squeeze to start yesterday, leading to a grinding up relief rally leg that made it to mid 4540s so far. ES is now two green days in a row and ~60 points off last Thursdays low
Market Gauge
🟢 Neutral to Bullish
The Markets Overnight
🌏 Asia: Mixed
🌍 Europe: Down
🌎 US Index Futures: Down
🛢 Crude Oil: Up
💵 Dollar: Up
🧐 Yields: Down slightly
🔮 Crypto: Up strongly
World News
G20 ends with very little progress or policy change aside from pledge on renewables.
Key Structures
The large, triangle that has formed with the 4450 level being support and resistance being 4572 is now the core pattern for September. Everything between 4450-4572 is a broad chop range/play ground for ES. This could easily fill out all month. These patterns have a mild 60% upward resolution bias.
Support Levels
Supports for the ES are at: 4504, 4498-96 (major), 4486, 4473 (major), 4463-66, 4449 (major), 4434, 4424, 4418 (major), 4395-4400 (major), 4386, 4367, 4356 (major), 4337 (major), 4316, 4307, 4285-90 (major).
Resistance Levels
Resistance levels are: 4516, 4524 (major), 4528, 4535 (major), 4545, 4554-56 (major), 4563, 4572-74 (major), 4580, 4590, 4595 (major), 4602, 4608, 4620-22, 4627 (major), 4633, 4644 (major).
Trading Plan
The bull case is in play as long as the 4498-96 support holds. If it holds, the relief rally remains in play, with a return to 4524, perhaps a dip, then push up the levels to 4535, then probably 4554-56. The bear case begins on the fail of 4496. If we return back down there and there is no demand, the move would be to short 4483 for a move down the levels.
Wrap Up
In summary, September trading is proving to be as difficult, choppy, and volatile as expected. The key is not to predict where the price will go, but to take it level to level. As long as 4496-98 holds, we can expect to "fill out" the yellow triangle, with a pop to 4524, perhaps one more dip, then a push to 4535, 4554-56. However, should 4496 fail, we start down direct.
Disclosure: This is not financial advice and is for informational purposes only. Please consult a professional financial advisor before making any investment decisions.
9/11 Daily Recap, Outlook, and Trading PlanIMPORTANT: Effective from Monday, September 11th, ES will roll over from the September (ESU2023) front month to December (ESZ2023). September, which has been the actively traded contract for the last 3 months, will formally expire on Friday, September 15th and stop trading completely.
Recap
Last week, the SPX managed to pull off a green Friday after three red days. It began with the key support at 4493 cracking on Wednesday, triggering shorts for a 2-day flush. However, by last Friday, we saw the first post-selloff relief rally of about 40 points. The relief bounce was anticipated, with an entry at 4448 provided for it. This played out well, with a run to 4466-73 overnight on Thursday, followed by a dip, and then a rally on Friday morning.
Market Outlook: Neutral to Bullish
The Markets Overnight
🌏 Asia: Mostly up
🌍 Europe: Up
🌎 US Index Futures: Up
🛢 Crude Oil: Down
💵 Dollar: Down
🧐 Yields: Up
🔮 Crypto: Down
World News
US dollar slides as BoJ Governor Ueda hints Japan may end negative interest rates before the end of the year.
Key Structures
The first week of September, known for its volatility, bearishness, and difficulty, lived up to its reputation. With CPI, FOMC, and regular September noise still ahead, the volatility is far from over. Notably, a large triangle has formed, with the 4448 level being support and resistance being 4572. This is now the core pattern for September and everything between 4448-4572 is a broad chop range for ES.
Support Levels
Supports for the ES are at: 4504, 4498-96 (major), 4486, 4473 (major), 4463-66, 4449 (major), 4434, 4424, 4418 (major), 4395-4400 (major), 4386, 4367, 4356 (major), 4337 (major), 4316, 4307, 4285-90 (major).
Resistance Levels
Resistance levels are: 4516, 4524 (major), 4528, 4535 (major), 4545, 4554-56 (major), 4563, 4572-74 (major), 4580, 4590, 4595 (major), 4602, 4608, 4620-22, 4627 (major), 4633, 4644 (major).
Trading Plan
The bull case is in play as long as the 4498-96 support holds. If it holds, the relief rally remains in play, with a return to 4524, perhaps a dip, then push up the levels to 4535, then probably 4554-56. The bear case begins on the fail of 4496. If we return back down there and there is no demand, the move would be to short 4483 for a move down the levels.
Wrap Up
In summary, September trading is proving to be as difficult, choppy, and volatile as expected. The key is not to predict where the price will go, but to take it level to level. As long as 4496-98 holds, we can expect to "fill out" the yellow triangle, with a pop to 4524, perhaps one more dip, then a push to 4535, 4554-56. However, should 4496 fail, we start down direct.
Disclosure: This is not financial advice and is for informational purposes only. Please consult a professional financial advisor before making any investment decisions.
Weekly SPX outlook ending Sep 15SPX 4450 is the key line in the sand now. A head and shoulders is forming on the 2hr and based on option flow could complete early to mid week.
Bear: Below 4450 with a target of 4400 and below that 4350-4300.
Bull: Above 4450 with a target of 4500 and then 4530-4560.
We also have CPI and PPI this week. To add it is also OpEx - wonderful.
Could potentially take SPX 4465c and 4465p 09/18 on Sunday when SPX opens @ roughly 29.00 each. PT would be 90-100.00 on either leg.
9/8 Daily Recap, Outlook, and Trading PlanRecap
ES finally chose a direction after spending a full week chopping between 4490-4540, and it was down. As discussed earlier, September is often the most bearish and volatile month of the year. The failure of 4493-87 was the key pivot this week, triggering shorts and putting bears in control. The base has broken down, and ES retraced 61% of the August rally.
Market Outlook: Neutral
The Markets Overnight
🌏 Asia: Mixed
🌍 Europe: Mixed
🌎 US Index Futures: Up a lot
🛢 Crude Oil: Up
💵 Dollar: Down slightly
🧐 Yields: Down a bit
🔮 Crypto: Down
World News
G20 Leaders Summit this weekend in New Delhi.
Key Structures
The big picture structures/levels relevant for today include 4485-90, 4466, 4448, and 4416. These are not comprehensive, nor are they predictive.
Support Levels
The support levels for today are: 4448-50(major), 4440, 4430, 4424 (major), 4410-15 (major), 4402, 4390 (major), 4383 (major), 4377, 4356-58, 4348 (major), 4339, 4326-30 (major), 4317, 4311 (major), and 4293 (major).
Resistance Levels
Resistance levels are: 4456, 4466 (major), 4473, 4485-90 (major), 4496, 4509-05 (major), 4517 (major), 4523, 4532, 4537-40 (major), 4547, 4558, 4565, 4575-80 (major), 4592, 4597 (major), 4607-11, and 4624 (major).
Trading Plan
This relief bounce is in play direct as long as 4448-50 continues holding. The bear case is the loss of 4448. If that happens, bulls will want to see it recover fast. If it can’t and demand is clearly absent, I’d be looking to get short 4438 for a move down to 4424.
Wrap Up
Today is the final day on September contracts and the final day you will be seeing these levels. My general lean is that we can continue to defend 4448-50, then try a relief bounce to 4466-73, possible dip, then up to 4485-4500. If 4448 fails, its a warning that we need another leg lower to 4424 at least. These are very complex conditions - trade light and trade seldomly.
Disclosure: This is not financial advice and is for informational purposes only. Please consult a professional financial advisor before making any investment decisions.
ES Futures Volume Teardown Vs. Cyclical Elliot Wave CountI recently noted that my cyclical Elliot Wave count coincides with the significant volume areas on a volume profile for the ES! futures contract (S&P500).
So, from the top:
1. is the recent volume high. An influx of volume into the market that has driven the nasty corrective grind since the ultimate top.
2. is the value area high as calculated by the volume profile extension. This is where the 2017 highs were found and there was a lengthy sidwards ABCDE correction which I believe to have been a Wave 4 in hindsight.
3. correlates to a volume influx that both served as the 2015 top when there was a brief period of volatility across a 15% range (that I believe to have been a subwave 4 correction) and also the COVID sell-off lows (That I believe to be an E wave at the end of a Wave 4 correction that was in place since 2018).
4. Correlates to overall point-of-control as calculated by the extension which was the high for total volume between 2008 and present. Wave 1 also found resistance here as did Subwave 1 of Wave 3. Significant volatility in this area as buyers and sellers fought it out but was ultimately won by the bulls.
5. Correlates to the value area lows as caclulate by the plugin. There was no special significance of this.
6. The ultimate bottom of range. No special significance other than this is the bottom of my sampling range.
So to summarise, it seems that the volume profile for the ES! futures contract correlates to my long-term view of SPX from an Elliot Wave perspective.
I consider this good evidence for my wave count.
We also can see from this how volume flowing into the futures market has tapered off as the market climbed.
There is also a very significant RSI divergence that began in 2018 and is still in place to this day.
My view going forward is that it's very difficult to believe that the minor dip since the all-time-high is going to be the correction to a 14 year bull run.
So I expect further downside to come.
Scenario 1: We have had an A wave down and a B wave up. We are owed a C wave down to the penultimate bottom at between 2000-2800 that are significant volume nodes.
Scenario 2: We have had a Wave 1 down and are setting up for a much larger correction which will see us bottom at the COVID lows, bounce for a few years, and then continue down to the lower range of the chart.
I am unsure which scenario is going to take place, but I am positioning myself for both.
#ES_F Day Trading Prep Week 9.04-9.08Levels to Watch :
Current Resistance 4532.50 - 24.25
Targets if Over 4548.75 - 43.75 Key Resistance for Any Continuation 4570 - 62.50
Gap (Supply) 4590.75 - 70.50
Current Support 4508.75 - 02.50 Key Support 4487.25 - 79.75
Single Prints 4489.25 - 82.50 // 4469.25 - 57
Last Week :
Market opened right in our Current Resistance area for last week and we consolidated all night around it without getting any strong selling, once we ran out of supply we pushed and started holding above using the consolidation as Support which put our higher targets in play for the week. Once we got through Key Resistance with another consolidation under it, we got the next move towards the upper targets, we went through 4487-79 with ease and left single prints on the way up ( more trapped shorts) We did find good Resistance at our 4532-24 target and then just traded around it rest of the week.
This Week :
Seems like market flushed trapped Supply that built up at our HTF Resistance area into the cost basis, cleaned up under it as we didn't have the needed Support above and now we made another move back over the mean and over VAH with more strength and possible Support under. Quite a few might have gotten too short biased for continuation towards 4300-4200s that they may have been trapped again as market wasn't ready to continue just yet, which now may provide Support for us and if we can hold over 4487-79 then that could bring in more buying which could send us higher before we will see 4300-4200 again.
Going into this week we have single prints under us for potential Supports at 4508.75-02.50 // 448725-79.75 areas and 4532.50-24.25 as our Current Resistance needed to be taken out for higher prices.
For the Upside :
We want to wait and see what we do in this 4524-08 area as right now we are by resistance and would either want to see a test of 4508.75-02.50 and ideally we can't break or flush under and come back in, hold over that area can bring 4532.50-24.25 again and this is our area to watch for continuation. If we get through we could target 4548.75-43.75 and potential a move towards Key Resistance at 4570-62.50 BUT keep in mind that gap above it is our Supply still so closer we get the more supply we will have to chew through so will we make it all the way there or if we will be able to head towards it this week at all? 32.50-24.25 would be area to watch for that. We already made a big move last week and we might need some consolidation over 4487-79 which means it might need time for next move or could be done in smaller range moves higher.
For the Downside :
Todays sessions while markets were closed failed at 4532.50-24.25 Resistance and holding under it could give us the test of 4508.75-02.50, this would be area to watch for continuation lower, we could find Support but if we take out the stops and hold under we could try to make a move towards Key Support which would be our Single Print area, there are 2 sets of them on the downside and we would want to see if we can fill some of them or not. We would need to get through 4487.79 area with strong volume and hold under for any continuation lower.
We are currently in 4520-4480 range and we can spend some time balancing within until next move will be ready.
