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Es!1

SPY Fibonacci & TA. Bullish Target Above $410.For everyone interested: Expect volatility to be king over the next few weeks (earnings and economic data). SPY reaching a major APEX in price trend. It is very likely to resolve to the upside, but that means we have to be prepared for "false breakouts". Fibonacci price trends suggest current trend is BULLISH (closing GAPS). The upper GAP may be the next target on a strong rally phase. Don't play around with this trend. If you are SHORT - PROTECT YOUR CAPITAL. Economic data continues to suggest the US markets will resolve to the upside if inflation trends continue to weaken. Follow my research & videos. I've been trying to warn you about the start of a Wave-5 rally for more than 5+ months.
AMEX:SPYLong
by BradMatheny
Morning Update: Will I be HERO or GOAT?I have no idea where the phrase from "Hero to GOAT" came from. But I know it means... "that by his actions a person has in short order shifted from success to failure, with a concomitant move from praise to blame". Now I used the Google Machine to post that definition so some of you won't confuse GOAT with a Tom Brady reference...."Greatest of all Time". GOAT is this sense is a negative connotation. Also, forgive the use of Hero...its just a saying:)You get my meaning...lol. I've been posting on Trading View now for a year. In that timeframe I have posted almost 600 times about various securities I track. I try to provide my followers and new readers with detailed analysis and context. I am NO HERO...nor do I consider myself a GOAT of any sort. But I do consider myself a student of patterns, trader sentiment, and ultimately Elliott Wave Analysis. On 4 previous occasions I have done these posts I loosely refer to as "thought experiments". These posts are where I detail what will happen in the markets the next day. Usually these posts will revolve around some sort of news or event that may invoke volatility. The entire point of the thought experiments were never to brag. They certainly were not to say I have a higher intellect or the fact that I practice magic, or levitate...lol. They were designed to be thought provoking. Does news or events move price, or are they simply catalysts that fulfill on a pattern that has been in the making prior to the announcement of news or events. I'm in the camp that news or events do not matter. I believe when you consider all the participants in a large market like the SP500, the range of knowledge across the vast amount of participants dictate that good, bad or indifferent news leaks, is known prior, is anticipated or forecasted. These traders show us how prices will react in advance with the patterns of buys and sells on a chart. But I acknowledge is almost an impossible debate to win. Most people see the aftermath of news or events and how price reacts instantaneously and deem it to be cause and affect. It's hard to argue against that when the visual picture countering that argument is so stark. Hence the reason why I put myself out there. This is a topic for traders to continue to debate. Its a valid topic and therefore I expose myself to comments of ridicule if these thought experiments of mine, that I share with you, blow up in my face . I'll let my followers be the final arbiter on whether I am right or wrong...but suffice to say, I'm sure my older followers would agree I'm 4 for 4 so far. #5: My thought experiment for todays trading day I shared the jest of my thought process last night but I can dial it in a little more this morning. As of right now, price is in my target box. Once the CPI report is announced I believe price will spike in the ES. Now...don't freak out ...Price should not spike higher than 4097. That 100 points away from where we are as of the posting of my morning update. 4097 would represent an outlier. I do not place a high probability on that, but these spikes rarely are based on anything else but emotion. Nonetheless, price should not breach 4097. But I would more so expect price to spike to the 4030 to 4050 area. Price will should be around the 4010-4030 when the cash market opens at 930am. Price will stay elevated during the first hour of cash market trading. Price will spend the rest of the day moving down and we stand a decent chance of closing red on the day or in the area of flat. My trade plan for today is to add to a small short ES call position I initiated yesterday afternoon. Ultimately I am looking for price to return to the area of a breach of 3788 in the coming days or weeks...hence my short call trade thesis. I'll update todays price action this evening...and I'll be mentally prepared (with bourbon) to take my medicine in the comments section. Let's see what opportunities today brings us. Best to all, Chris
CME_MINI:ES1!
by maikisch
18
SPX Primed For A Powerful Wave 3 Decline - UpdateWith an impulse up formed at close from yesterday's 3877 low, the 3970 high marks the completion of W2 to set up for the bearish W3 breakdown out of this consolidation period. W3 should begin by retracing the majority of the recent rally targeting 3843-3808, for w1 of W3. Ultimately, there is a high probability target range for the W3 decline, which includes the 78.6% retracement from the October 13 low and 90-100% extensions of W1. Those are 3667-3635-3622. A fourth wave rally will follow after W3 is complete to be followed by a fifth to complete (W1).
SP:SPXShort
by TheElliottWaveClub
Evening Update: ES to Spike Higher tomorrow into Target BoxJudging by how we traded all day today I can't say we're done to the upside . I can only assume tomorrow's CPI catalyst will cause prices to spike into the target box. Upon experiencing that spike tomorrow I will soon add to my newly initiated short call position. I believe this spike will last so that the cash market can open at 930am EST . Upon the cash market opening I expect prices to retreat within an hour of opening and continue down the remainder of the day. It is possible we close red tomorrow. * That TE was free of charge:) lol Best to all, Chris
CME_MINI:ES1!Short
by maikisch
25
Morning Update: To break-out or break-down that is the questionLast night I decided to look at this chart as if I was seeing it for this time. Its funny, but the first impression I got was this is NOT a chart that price is going to run away with bullishly. Many of you have heard me say that with respect to this long drawn out consolidation since the 22nd of December. Problem is we have meandered up the whole time. But this is not new. Ever since we bottomed in October at 3502, we haven't had a decent impulsive wave in the ES. Almost every rally eventually overlapped. We have been in a choppy market ever since. I hope to gain some clarity shortly. On the micro chart above, we have topped in Black "b" or with one more poke into the target box we will top. If we come up short of the target box we still have 1-2 pointing down in the black count. In the purple count we should head lower for our wave 2 of C that is ultimately headed to the 4300 area. So you understand there are many potential outcomes to consider...but in the very short term it appears both counts point lower. If we get a push up to the 3985 to 4000 area, I may take an outright short and close towards the wave 2 target box in purple. If I do this trade I will post a "trade alert". Lets see what clues, or lack of, we get today. Best to all, Chris
CME_MINI:ES1!
by maikisch
3
How the ES has reacted to EIA Petroleum Status ReportsEIA Petroleum Status Reports are considered high-impact news, yet how much do they impact ES futures? In the 30 minutes after it gets reported at 10:30am ET, here's how ES has reacted the last 5 times: Jan 4: 14.75-point range, closing up 0.21% after 30 minutes Dec 28: 11.5-point range, closing up 0.25% after 30 minutes Dec 21: 12-point range, closing up 0.12% after 30 minutes Dec 14: 8.75-point range, closing up 0.20% after 30 minutes Dec 7: 13.75-point range, closing up 0.09% after 30 minutes Plenty of range there to make money... and plenty of range to get whipsawed out for a loss. so be careful. Unless you have a specific strategy to trade the EIA Petroleum Status Report news, or you're in for a longer hold, consider sitting it out.
CME_MINI:ES1!
by TradingTruthseeker
Evening Update: Well, that cleared up Nothing Today’s price action did nothing to clear things up or give some sort of advantage to either the Black or Purple counts. If the Black count is going to play out price needs to breach 3850 and then 3788. For purple to play out, price needs above 3974. Until then we chop around with no discernable purpose. Not being a day-trader, I refuse to get caught up in this tug of war. I prefer to be a little more patient. I believe we will have a tradeable trend to rely on shortly. If Black plays out my area of trade interest is approximately 3750, whereas, if purple plays out, my area of trade interest will be 3985-4038. Best to all, Chris
CME_MINI:ES1!
by maikisch
5
Morning Update: ES Futures are in No Man's LandWith yesterday's spike and reversal, for this analyst, it continues to complicate things. Yesterday's rally came in the form of a 5 wave structure. For me the question remains a 5-wave structure of what? ( a c-wave to complete black b of B, or a wave-1 of purple C) In the primary black count, we came up short of a standard retracement by just 10 points. But those 10 points became a potential big clue when price reversed. Follow along with me...In the main chart our bounce off of 3502 to our A-wave high took 2 months to complete. I was looking for a B wave to complete in roughly the same timeframe. I was not looking for it to complete in 3 weeks. Therefore I have added a purple count that reflects B having completed at 3788 and forming a leading diagonal for 1 of c to start off our c-wave higher. If price comes down but does not breach the 3850 level and then impulsively takes out yesterday's high of 3974, then there's a high probability we're headed to the 4300 area for our primary b-wave. As of now, I have not abandoned my primary black B count. In the black primary count we topped in b of B yesterday and should be headed down to 3700-3600 area. AS OF THIS MORNING, I HAVE NO PROBABLE DISTINCTION BETWEEN BLACK AND PURPLE. In my opinion we're in no mans land until we breakdown below 3850 and then immediately breach 3788...Or we trade above yesterdays high 3974. Best to all, Chris
CME_MINI:ES1!
by maikisch
Morning Update: ES Futures Remain Deadlocked in a ZoneEach time I look for ES Futures to reconcile lower, we move to the high end of the range we have been deadlocked in since 3rd week of December. Suffice to say we have no reconciliation up or down despite the 2-3% rally on Friday. I maintain my perspective that this long drawn out overlapping pattern will reconcile itself lower. But I am not interested in moving back to the low end of the consolidation area. I need to see a breach of 3788. To the degree we do not breach 3788 and eventually move impulsively higher ( which is not my primary expectation ) I may be forced to consider the larger B wave concluded at 3788 and we're now on our way to 4300. That would make this consolidation area a leading diagonal to start the trend higher in a C wave. The main reason I do not believe this to be the case is the cash index tagged the 1.0 Fib Extension and where A=C. As you can see from the below we do not have such a drawn out overlapping pattern. We have what appears to be a clean ABC and right into the 1.0. Granted, we could break out and continue higher...but I'm having a hard time seeing that happen right now. Lets see what clues todays session brings us. Best to all, Chris
CME_MINI:ES1!
by maikisch
1
SPX Primed For A Powerful Wave 3 Decline Next WeekSPX completed a double zigzag correction originating from the December 22 low terminating at Friday's 3906 high. That 3906 high marks the completion of W2 to set up the bearish W3 breakdown out of this consolidation period. Below 3852 will greatly increase confidence that the W2 high will hold to immediately target 3819-3795, initially. Ultimately, there is a high probability target range for the W3 decline, which includes the 78.6% retracement from the October 13 low and 90-100% extensions of W1. Those are 3622-3604-3570, respectively. A fourth wave rally will follow after W3 is complete to be followed by a fifth to complete (W1).
SP:SPXShort
by TheElliottWaveClub
1
SP500 headed higherSP500 appears to be headed higher. The most widely used indicators MACD, RSI and 5/20 EMA are showing bullish. Most important is the RSI, a bullish signal formed when the RSI stayed within a tight range below the 50 than retraced above the 50 level. Same time the MACD signal went positive Breakout of range Above anchored VWAP from the low RSI above 50 Anyone's guess how much higher it can go, but with current analysis, I see the previous highly range being tested.
CME_MINI:ES1!Long
by RKchartest
Weekend Update: ES Rallies furthering the pattern complexity ES Futures have been in a tight range since Thursday December 22nd of last year when it completed its initial a-wave down from the 4180 high. The overlapping price action has given me a fit to count. What started out as an expectation of a standard retracement in b of B, eventually turned into the expectation of a triangle, which is now as best as I can ascertain, a triple zig zag. Although the above pattern featured below in the micro chart is very similar to a diagonal, it cannot be one , because diagonals are motive waves. Motive waves are trend directional in nature, and this pattern still appears corrective. At the start of Friday’s trading day, I was expecting lower, but knew I was not going to be putting on a trade that day. As my longer-term followers are used to hearing from me price has to come to me when putting on a trade. It is only when price is coming to me that I know I’m dialed into where the Elliott wave analysis is forecasting. Therefore, I have the largest chance of making a profit. So, my plan is to continue to wait until this consolidation is clearly over. With respect to the current pattern, there’s only so many interpretations that can be made. Being a B-wave, it is expected to potentially become complex and it is this complexity that has me pulling me back from trading. As of right now I have 3 waves up that appear impulsive in nature. 3938.25 is the 1.0 extension and I would expect some sort of reaction at that level. To conclude there would make sense of this whole mess. Whether this pattern completes there or not is yet to be determined. However, I stand by previous assertions that the consolidation pattern we have been experiencing for the last almost 2 weeks in not a terribly bullish pattern. Aside from all the rallies and declines within the last 2 weeks...price has not moved much at all. The standard retracement area for this b-wave originally was as high as 3985-4030. I stopped looking for price to reach those levels due to the overlap. I remain of the same opinion while writing my weekend update...but I will also remain open minded until I get clarity in the pattern. In conclusion, let's see if price can muster the strength to get to 3938.25 and the reaction afterwards. Best to all, Chris
CME_MINI:ES1!
by maikisch
3
Bears Still on the Field - SPX futuresThe idea from yesterday is not working as I thought so I had to reevaluate what I'm seeing this morning. The general bias is still down - under the 18ma on daily and weekly, embedded bearish slow stochastic, put call ratios back to normal levels again, and more.... If we move quickly downward, there is daily BB support near 3740 on ES. That should at least pause the market but it's no guarantee that a rally would come from that support. If we are starting a C wave down all bounces will be minimal at best. Another option is we rally hard after the NFP to the daily 18ma at 3880 area - possible for sure but unless they can hold above the 18ma by close it will be just a bull trap. I believe many are thinking a bounce and then lower which is why I'm not so sure about a bounce at this time. A sell down with no bounce would catch the majority of longs off guard and keep short sellers from getting into a good position to sell. Please be careful and as always - good luck!
CME_MINI:ES1!
by the_sunship
8
Morning Update: Looking for price to reconcile lowerThis B-wave cannot complete fast enough for this trader. From the mid-December spike into 4180 to our recent consolidation, this retracement downwards has not been easy. It's January 6th, and I have yet to do my first ES trade of 2023. I'm hoping that is about to change in the next several sessions. I am looking to short puts within the April expiration date. I am unsure the strike but looking at 3400-3600 area. I have made no determinations yet because based on my analysis we need a c-wave lower. My plan is to track this c-wave to the point I can zero in on a conclusion area. ...until that happens I will not be putting a trade. Some traders must be involved in the market everyday, throughout every machination...I can not relate to that type of trader. I am not testing theories when I trade, I am not gambling when I trade... I trade for profit . That means the end result must be more than when I started. Today I am expecting our c-wave to get underway in earnest. Suffice to say, regardless of what the market does.... TODAY IS NOT A DAY FOR TRADING FOR ME. #themarketneverbottomsonafriday Best to all, Chris
CME_MINI:ES1!
by maikisch
3
SPX - B is starting to look like a triangle So a follow up to my previous post because they are not breaking this market down as hard today as I suspected. Very possibly B continues sideways into CPI tomorrow and we rally into the end of today. A false breakdown on CPI (the final e wave) would give then get us the move up, how far is uncertain for it should take a few days at least. C target may even get to the edge of the pitchfork - much higher than most would expect. I'm thinking this because the rsi on smaller time frames is showing hidden bullish divergence and we are at pitchfork fib support on both SPY and QQQ. Please be cautious! I'll update later today after market close
CME_MINI:ES1!
by the_sunship
13
Evening Update: Revised b-Wave Count CompletedAfter spending much of today looking at the pattern I have revised this larger b-wave retracement to be a w,x (a,b,c,d,e Triangle) for y of b. As I have stated previously b-waves and 4th waves are where our most complex Elliott Wave patterns appear. The above count is really the only way to count this consolidation and it works perfectly within the guidelines of the use of a wxy pattern. If this is correct, we have already started our decline lower in a "c of b". I only have 3 micro waves down so far so whether this is an "abc" or an impulsive 5-wave c-wave down is yet to be determined. What is for sure (if my count is correct) we're headed lower into the 3700-3600 area. I'll update again in the morning. Best to all, Chris
CME_MINI:ES1!
by maikisch
3