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Morning Update: Are we about to get CLARITY? Morning Update: Are we about to get CLARITY? I do think we need the index to clear up some thing for us traders. Possibly that will come today. Let’s start with the bigger picture on the daily chart. In my primary black count, I still believe, in the very short term, we need higher before we go lower. My reasoning behind this is: Off the October 3502 bottom we have an overlapping advance. That advance is best counted as an (a), (b) with a (c) of a slightly higher to complete this structure. That would be where our a=c or the 1.0 extension of the move off of 3502 resides at 4154.75. We are not there yet. Therefore, I believe we have work to do to fill in these final machinations of our a-wave. As you can see from the above chart, I am counting this as we are in SC wave IV. I am doing so, because we had our opportunity to breach the 3502 with OML and that would’ve been a completed pattern on positive divergence. We didn’t do that. Therefore, I am of the mindset we didn’t do that because we are a long way from completing our pattern within this given cycle of the index. If I’m right and this is a Supercycle consolidation, we will not complete our A wave till end of next year, maybe even the beginning of 2024. Red Count back on chart The red count, of which I am not a fan of , portends we are about to drop in the larger C wave of cycle iv which could approach the COVID-19 bottom. I have it on the chart because if this is the intended path price is to follow...it should be starting soon. If this happens, price should head to challenge 3502 almost directly. This would be a third wave so this downward move would be brutal, constant, with little entry for both shorts and longs. To the degree this doesn’t happen I will remove the red count alternative. Intraday Chart Intraday, my count has not changed. We can come down into the 3912.50 area again...but we will need a 3-wave advance to complete this “a” wave. The current area of consolidation doesn’t appear impulsive to the downside, so it’s hard for me to believe we are done with the short-term upside. Therefore I will reiterate, we need this micro 4 to complete with OMH to cap off our "a" wave of larger B. Contingency If price breaks 3900, then I will have to concede my intraday count is wrong and this “a” could be over. This would mean we may be in our b wave decline, or the depending on the aggressive nature of the decline, RED Count Wave 3. Let’s see what the rest of the week provides us with respect to clues. Best to all, Chris
CME_MINI:ES1!
by maikisch
Morning Update: Lower first then new local high?The count I'm tracking has price carving out it's wave 4 in a diagonal higher with OMH to come. In all cases these will be 3 wave moves within 4 and 5. Nothing has changed since my last update. I did want to mention we should NOT go below 3900 at any time within this current count. If that happens, then "a" would likely be done and now we're on our "b" of B. That is not my preference as of this morning...but if that does play out, then wave a of 4 would be the 5 and would have completed as a 3 wave move. Additionally I'll then be looking to short that retrace then. However, as of right now, we are awaiting OML in wave 4 within our diagonal structure. Best to all, Chris
CME_MINI:ES1!
by maikisch
Evening Update: LD for wave "a" of B still in progressIf my followers can remember back when we struck the lows at 3502, I held onto the notion we would make another low to complete the downside pattern. We never got that final low. I anguished over that 3502 low, and still do , because I can not make out a discernable 5 wave pattern into 3502. Since we then we have overlapped our way up in what yet again appears to be another diagonal. Since I am counting this as "a" of Larger B, that would make it an (LD) leading diagonal. The reason why it is not an ending diagonal for "a" is price would essentially have to retrace the vast majority of this rally off the 3502 lows. Additionally, since we're counting this as a B wave...I do not see this completing soon. So I believe the up trend will continue upon the completion of this initial pattern off 3502 and the LD is most appropriate in this circumstance. Now some of you may ask, if this is in fact an LD, then 3502 could also be the bottom. This entire LD may cap off our wave 1 higher. Valid Point. That could be the case. Again, I'll refer you back to the 3502 low and the rally off that bottom. If 3502 was the bear market low, then why have we rallied so indecisively? A leading diagonal to end a bear market decline is valid....BUT I WOULD CONCLUDE IT HAS TO BE RARE. I SAY HAS TO BE...BECAUSE I DO NOT KNOW OF ANY BEAR MARKETS THAT ENDED WITH AN LD TO UPSIDE. Therefore, I don’t give much weight to the bottom being in because of the low probability nature of the current pattern. This is the main reason why I am counting this pattern as an overall countertrend retracement of the larger "a" wave. Additionally, I'm am counting this as the "a" wave and not the "A" wave, because I believe this pending "C" wave down is what will cause us to lose positive divergence on the daily chart and reveal we are in SC wave IV...but that is intuition as of now. If we do not lose positive divergence I will change my labeling to "A" vs. "a" and this upcoming decline will complete this bear market pattern. So for tonight and into the morning, I look for more confirmation that we're going to finish this c wave of wave 4 in our LD in wave "a" of B around the 3910-20 area and move higher from there. Please post any thoughtful questions below regarding the above analysis. Best to all, Chris
CME_MINI:ES1!
by maikisch
5
SPY Cycle Patterns for Nov 28 Thru Dec 2 - A Sideways Melt-upThis week, I expect a bit of a sideways melt-up before the Dec 7 start of the Santa Rally. The markets are digesting the post Thanksgiving trends and may continue to stay in a fairly narrow range over the next 7~10+ days. I do believe a critical Fibonacci inflation point is likely before Dec 7~10 - prompting a moderately strong Santa Rally phase to start. Reading some of the comments on Twitter, analysts and various traders seem to be all over the place. Some are calling for a massive price collapse to take place. Others are suggesting a new rally phase will take place. What I can tell you is that, which you should be watching my Youtube videos to follow my Custom Indexes, global traders are shifting capital away from global risks and into US Dollar based assets. This trend will likely continue for many months still. The unwinding of global speculative excesses (particularly in nations which saw big increases in home values - think China/Asia, Canada, others) and/or those caught in the pre-Covid excess credit/debt trap (the cheap USD carry trade) will likely continue to struggle as the "revaluation event" puts even more pressure on these foreign markets. Canada is an interesting example. A fairly strong economy that saw a big increase in wealth, asset valuations, and investments before, through, and even after COVID. The excesses were fueled by a global speculative phase (rising prices), almost like a "tulip bubble" where everyone through "I can't miss this incredible opportunity"... So they jumped in AT ANY COST. Just like what we saw with Bitcoin, the downside to that rally may be a -50% to -70% decline of certain assets over time. One must try to understand that when an environment of weaker asset growth (homes and other tangible assets) settles in throughout the world, capital will seek three things: Safety Security ROI You can't find these three things in extended underperforming assets (think China/Asia, Canada, others). That capital MUST move towards any economy that will contract the least, has the strongest base valuation correlation, and has the potential for moderate earnings, revenues, and RECOVERY. In my opinion, that is the US, UK, and possibly Japanese markets.
AMEX:SPYLong
by BradMatheny
1
Morning Update: SPX Futures signaling a more muted rally if at Overnight the SPX futures declined to the point where both the minor wave iv low of one lesser degree, as well as, the wave 1 top were breached. This leaves only an ending diagonal for our c wave of “a” of B. Since we bottomed on November 17th at 3912.50 price has advanced in an overlapping manner. This type of pattern portends an ending diagonal which typically means price will return to where the diagonal began...which is 3912.50. That could be the start of our “b” of B wave low as depicted above, or a larger diagonal as depicted in purple. This larger diagonal becomes the primary count with a breach of 3988...with “b” of B taking precedence below 3900. It is still my preference for OMH, however, I do not believe this rally now has the strength to get into the 4100 area without a more pronounced decline and consolidation. I am targeting 4060-4072 area for OMH if this is what price intends to do. Our parameters for a more pronounced decline are listed above. Best to all, Chris
CME_MINI:ES1!
by maikisch
SP500 Weekly Forecast Analysis 28 Nov-2 Dec 2022 SP500 Weekly Forecast Analysis 28 Nov-2 Dec 2022 We can see that this week, the current implied volatility is around 2.85% , down from 3.06% of last week. According to ATR calculations, we are currently on the 63th percentile, while with VIX we are on 29th percentile. Based on this data, we can expect on average, the movement from open to close of the weekly candle to be : In case of bullish - 2.9% In case of bearish - 2.56% With the current IV calculation, we have currently 24.3% that the close of the weekly candle is going to finish either above or below the next channel: TOP: 4143 BOT: 3897 At the same time, taking into consideration the high/low touch calculation from the previous values, we can expect for this week: 26% chance that we are going to touch the previous low of the weekly candle of 3936 79% chance that we are going to touch the previous high of the weekly candle of 4050 Lastly from a technical analysis point of view, currently 26% of the moving averages rating, are insinuating we are in a BULLISH trend.
CME_MINI:ES1!
by exlux