Validation of a long term top in the SPX continues to playballLast week I posted an update on my SPX cash index analysis...found below.
At the end of last week, we see where the price action has been filling in nicely as of Friday. Some key take-a-ways. First, is the price action has breached the area that I am counting as the wave 4 of one lesser degree. This would be an initial clue that the bull market pattern that started back in August of last year is cracking. This would be the area that I am counting as the intermediate wave (4). I am forecasting this recent price action down is the Minor A wave of the beginning of a stair stepped decline that has a high probability of coming back into that area of the August 2024 lows after we retrace higher in a minor B wave, labeled in Red.
What's important about price coming back into this area of approximately 5121-4950 is this the area that price could hold and manage a higher high, essentially meaning that my count is off by one degree...and what I am counting as a wave (III) super-cycle top will get pushed out to end of 2025-2026. However, to breach this area even incrementally, would provide much the same clues we're getting now, about price breaching the minor wave 4 of one lesser degree.
Below this must hold area, is where my forecast of a super-cycle wave (III) gets confirmation...until then we look for clues of validation...but confirmation does not come until price cane breach this area. To breach this area would reflect in price action that resembles the below.
