Levels to Watch : Resistance 4508.75-02.50 ? Key Resistance 4532.50-24.25-19 Targets if Over 4548.75-43.75 // 4570.62.50 Support Prev Day Low 4497.25-94.75-90 ? Key Support 4487.25-79.75 Targets if Under VAH, 4465.25-60.25 // 4449.75-45-34.75 ( Needs to break/hold for ANY continuation ) // 4422.75-18.75 // 4403-4392.25 Range Edge 4375.75-4359.50 Last Week...
Recap Midday Friday afternoon update. The market experienced a bearish trend with high volatility last week, triggered by the breakdown of the 2-month triangle pattern and the start of the most bearish seasonal cycle of the year. Despite reaching the 4385 level, it's unclear whether a bounce is imminent. The downward trend began with a structure breakdown and...
ES is only 30 points away from it's breakout point in June around the 4337 level. For nine months, ES failed to break this level, and when it finally did it never retested it. Now, we are close. Will this be a buying opportunity or will ES flush straight through? I personally will be looking to long this area.
Recap Yesterday's FOMC day was filled with volatility and traps, making it a challenging day for trading. ES finished below the support of the key triangle structure at 4470, indicating a bearish sentiment. Despite the volatility, smart trading strategies that focused on failed breakdowns and level-to-level profit management yielded lucrative results. Market...
Recap This week demonstrated the effectiveness of straightforward technical analysis. We kicked off the week eyeing a target of 4565 and touched a high of 4566, validating a simple trendline resistance in a multi-month triangle. A pullback was expected and did indeed materialize. Market Gauge 🟡 Neutral The Markets Overnight 🌏 Asia: Down slightly 🌍 Europe:...
Recap This week demonstrated the effectiveness of straightforward technical analysis. We kicked off the week eyeing a target of 4565 and touched a high of 4566, validating a simple trendline resistance in a multi-month triangle. A pullback was expected and did indeed materialize. Market Gauge 🔴 Neutral to Bearish The Markets Overnight 🌏 Asia: Down 🌍 Europe:...
Recap This week was a testament to the power of simple technical analysis. The week began with a clear target in mind: 4565. The week's high was 4566, which was not due to complex economic reasons but rather a simple trendline resistance of a multi-month triangle. A significant pullback was anticipated and it occurred. Market Gauge 🟡 Neutral The Markets...
SPX 4450 is still the key line in the sand for bulls to defend and bears to overtake. Even if Bears win, there's strong support at 4425-4400. Belo 4400 is where the fun begins down to 4350-4300. If Bulls hold 4450 we could attempt a gap fill above back to 4500
Recap After a choppy Wednesday, traders were rewarded with a solid move on Thursday. I had been long at 4503-97 since Wednesday morning after CPI, adding to my position at 4518 at close. This was due to a failed breakdown, a core setup that often traps shorts and allows for long entries. We saw a 60+ point follow through off this. As predicted, we rallied to...
Recap Wednesday was a typical CPI trading day characterized by traps and volatility. After the data release, we saw an initial drop, followed by a 30+ point rally, confirming the prediction that the first move after release would fade. Despite this, we ended up in the same 4500-4540 range we've been in for all of September. Market Gauge 🟢 Neutral to...
Recap The market experienced a choppy session yesterday with both bulls and bears getting trapped. The price confusion was expected due to today's CPI. After a 60-point relief bounce from Thursday's low to Monday's highs, the market spent much of yesterday swinging in a wide, bi-directional range. The session was spent mostly in the 4520-4540 ping pong...
Recap After a major 110 point sell at the start of September, last Thursday saw the formal setup for a relief rally leg. This setup followed through with a squeeze to start yesterday, leading to a grinding up relief rally leg that made it to mid 4540s so far. ES is now two green days in a row and ~60 points off last Thursdays low Market Gauge 🟢 Neutral to...
IMPORTANT: Effective from Monday, September 11th, ES will roll over from the September (ESU2023) front month to December (ESZ2023). September, which has been the actively traded contract for the last 3 months, will formally expire on Friday, September 15th and stop trading completely. Recap Last week, the SPX managed to pull off a green Friday after three red...
SPX 4450 is the key line in the sand now. A head and shoulders is forming on the 2hr and based on option flow could complete early to mid week. Bear: Below 4450 with a target of 4400 and below that 4350-4300. Bull: Above 4450 with a target of 4500 and then 4530-4560. We also have CPI and PPI this week. To add it is also OpEx - wonderful. Could potentially...
Recap ES finally chose a direction after spending a full week chopping between 4490-4540, and it was down. As discussed earlier, September is often the most bearish and volatile month of the year. The failure of 4493-87 was the key pivot this week, triggering shorts and putting bears in control. The base has broken down, and ES retraced 61% of the August...
I recently noted that my cyclical Elliot Wave count coincides with the significant volume areas on a volume profile for the ES! futures contract (S&P500). So, from the top: 1. is the recent volume high. An influx of volume into the market that has driven the nasty corrective grind since the ultimate top. 2. is the value area high as calculated by the volume...
Levels to Watch : Current Resistance 4532.50 - 24.25 Targets if Over 4548.75 - 43.75 Key Resistance for Any Continuation 4570 - 62.50 Gap (Supply) 4590.75 - 70.50 Current Support 4508.75 - 02.50 Key Support 4487.25 - 79.75 Single Prints 4489.25 - 82.50 // 4469.25 - 57 Last Week : Market opened right in our Current Resistance area for last week and we...
Recap In recent weeks, I've been discussing the crucial level in ES: 4493-87. This level has been a battleground since early June. Significant highs were set there in June and early July, which then broke on July 12th to trigger the July melt-up. It then failed in August, triggering the 130 point late August melt-down, before reclaiming late month. Yesterday, it...