Recap The last newsletter discussed the potential for bearish seasonality in August for SPX. This was timely as volatility was unleashed shortly after the newsletter was sent out. The catalyst for the volatility and selling was the US credit downgrade, which triggered a loss of critical multi-day support. This led to the most eventful evening session of 2023,...
Recap After the ES rallied and trended cleanly for +390 points from June to mid-July, the last two weeks have been characterized by a grinding summer chop. Despite testing the 4609 level six times in the last week with two failed breakouts, the ES has remained stubbornly resistant. Markets Overnight 🌏 Asia: Down 🌍 Europe: Down 🌎 US Index Futures: Down a lot 🛢...
Recap ES continues its characteristic bull market cycle of multi-day squeezes followed by wide rangebound consolidation under resistance, as it has done since July 19th. This pattern is expected to continue until a breakout occurs. Markets Overnight 🌏 Asia: Down a bit 🌍 Europe: Down 🌎 US Index Futures: Down 🛢 Crude Oil: Down 💵 Dollar: Up 🧐 Yields: Up strongly 🔮...
Recap In the past week, the markets have shown a series of traps and failed breakouts/breakdowns, with a significant bear trap occurring last Thursday. The ES sold 75 points, only to bounce back, demonstrating the biggest bear trap in 2 months. The 4608 level has been resistance for a full week, tested 4 times with one failed breakout. Markets Overnight 🌏 Asia:...
Upside 4628 → 4643 → 4667 → 4695 Downside 4604 → 4587 → 4564 → 4554 ES is forming a bull flag on the daily. A breakout to the upside can send us to the daily FVGs above: 4667-4695 (Fib extension 50%-61.8%) 4716-4765 Full Measured Move at 4777 All Time High 4808
Recap The post-FOMC session was marked by massive bi-directional moves, ultimately favoring the bears. Despite a promising 40 point overnight rally, the breakout turned into a failed breakout, erasing a week's worth of gains. This may be the setup bears have been waiting for. Markets Overnight 🌏 Asia: Mixed but China strong 🌍 Europe: Up slightly 🌎 US Index...
Recap Yesterday's FOMC session in ES was typical for those familiar with trading these sessions. Despite being defined by traps and volatility, there were several lucrative setups. We sold down to 4580, then right after the FOMC meeting undercut it by a couple of points, reclaimed, then put in a fantastic 25 point squeeze to ~4603 resistance, before rejecting...
In reading the title of this post, I'm sure you can tell what I want to say. Since the new habit is to guffaw and lmao at any thesis that isn't bullish, because "we" all "know" US equities "always go up" and a new all time high is "in store," I'd like to point out the Nasdaq already shows signs of having topped. That July 20, 2023 candle was some 2%+ in range...
Recap In the last week, ES built a sideways base after a steep rally, forming a new chart pattern between 4590s and 4560s. Yesterday, we saw a breakout and a continued upward trend. This pattern was a triangle with a bullish breakout bias, which broke out this morning at 4590, starting a push higher. However, there is concern as the breakout occurred before the...
Recap In my last newsletter, I predicted a bounce from 4564 back to 4580-90, and this played out perfectly yesterday. ES has now put in 5 daily candles stacked side by side, suggesting a large move is incoming. We are now consolidating for the next big move, with the FOMC on Wednesday being a potential catalyst. Markets Overnight 🌏 Asia: Mostly up, China up...
Recap Over the past 1.5 weeks, we've seen a significant long trade from 4420 on June 10th to 4585 this week, thanks to the market’s 8 straight days of higher highs with nearly no pullback. However, on Thursday, we lost the first major support in 1.5 weeks, triggering the first short in the same time period for ~30 points, before bouncing. We're now in what I call...
What a perfect H&S Pattern. Levels I am seeing for Price Targets.
Recap For the first time in years, the market has seen two continuous trades without stop outs. Long 4420 on July 9th, with a trailing stop kicking me out last Friday at 4538 (trade 1, 113 points). Then this week, long 4533 on Monday, with trailing stop still going for 70 points, making these the best trades of 2023 by a very large margin. The Markets...
CME_MINI:ES1! Took a stressless long scalp Anyone willing to short this? Trade well
CME_MINI:ESU2023 Incredible resiliency from the markets as a whole. Can we located any key levels above? Or we just jumping on a few measured moves to the upside? Trade safe
This expectation is a framework to look for a potential trading setup; I don't just execute based on these levels, I always wait for confirmations on lower timeframes This Analysis was done using my complete Strategy which includes: - Smart Money Concepts - Multi Timeframe Liquidity and Market Structure - Supply And Demand - Auction Theory - Volume Analysis -...
Recap Last week was a remarkable week, with the market dictating an exceptional, uninterrupted position from Sunday until late Friday. This steep uptrend was triggered by a perfect, 3-week ascending triangle, starting at 4420, with a 4485 breakout level and a 4575 target. This move was extreme and euphoric, with risks attached. The ability to draw lines, tune out...
the two major points are marked for short as yellow lines for SPX big reversal , i expect a major pullback from all of this area for SPX here