I have long opined on how I believe the SPX/ES gets to my initial downside target of 3200 to high 2800 area. This week I will dispense with the long-term warnings, and provide some intermediate context. This market is transitioning from “Buy the Dips” which has worked as a strategy for the better part of 2 decades to “Sell the Rips” . That is not to say...
2.28.23 Review : Tuesday Globex made a push back inside Previous Daily Support area of 4012-3990 before RTH where we found Supply and got our move towards 3976-71 where we found buyers first time around but managed to break it towards end of day. 3.01.23 Prep : Was end of day flush yesterday a move to take in more supply at lower prices and we can hold...
SIMPLE TA ANSWERS YOUR QUESTION OVERALL, GREEN TRENDLINE IS HOLDING THE LINE FOR BULLS AND IS MAJOR TRENDLINE TO HOLD (3950)OR ELSE SHORTS WILL BRING TO 3900 THEN A RETEST OF 3970 FOR BULLS TO MAKE IT THEIR SUPPORT AGAIN OR ELSE 3970 WILL BE STRONG RESISTYANCE IF REJECTION COMES IN. Don't complicate things with what FED is doing. Just keep it simple trading...
2.27.23 Review : Globex pushed us back inside Previous Daily Support at 4012-3990 and we pretty much spent the day inside it with a look above and come back in, look below and end of day break but we still closed inside it. 2.28.23 Prep : Is 4012-3990 our Daily Resistance now or will we be able to stay inside it and push back out? We have Supply over...
Londons first given setup out of the playbook seems to be an EURCHF simple B&R using the pin rejection as our entry criteria going for at least 1:2 RR
Friday 2.24.23 Review: Globex took out Daily Support and our 3976-71 Key Level for continuation before RTH and that gave us a flush down to our next potential support area, the way we opened it seemed like we could see continuation under that next Support but it was our first test and we didn't have enough to break it even though we were under T2 and Previous...
ES WEEKLY Linear Chart - This is a Sell/Short idea... Will be looking for an ideal setup at the Wave 2 if swing trading. With this set-up you can view the early Feb top as a stop. This is a refinement of a previously published idea on my outlook for ES based mainly on my anticipated yield direction of the US10Y. See my idea on TBonds following the link...
Pattern fails if it breaks out above 4000, and bear trend fails above the POC ~4015. Otherwise look down for 3900 1.6 fib and 3825 2.6 fib. Interesting that it made a mini bear megaphone pattern that failed at pivot 1, but the volatility created and even larger pattern. Megaphones have a habit of doing that because of the wild swings. So if it fails perhaps...
The prevailing narrative in these markets is still that you're in a bear market. Some stocks are in a bear market, specifically the tech junk that retail likes to lose money on, but the indexes are not in a bear market and have not been in a bear market. But it's not that the fundamentals behind the world economy are not bearish. Trouble is brewing, and the...
Time for me to give my view on SPX for probably the next month. The EWT in this chart should only be used as a guide. It's very subjective and price action and geometry are what I give more weight, so lets discuss that for now. I'll also focus a bit on the indicators below the chart as well. First, notice the sell signal in January of 2022 which was the top of...
S&P500 / 1D Hello traders, welcome back to another market breakdown. SP500 has been making new highs new lower highs. The price is trading around the 50% pull-back on the major spike higher. The bulls need to prevent the bears from achieving follow-through. The bulls are hopeful that yesterday was just a sell vacuum test of a 50% pullback from the rally....
2.23.23 Review : Thursday Globex spent time building structure over our Key Daily Support, RTH Open made an attempt at our 4030-25 Key Intraday Resistance area for the day and failed giving us a very nice trade towards our Daily Support. After we broke 4012-08 we broke structure that was built over it and we got more selling hitting out 3994-89 target and...
Like most, the 2008-09 financial crisis had an impact on me, my family, my financial decisions, and pretty much everything. It was a life altering time period. Now, granted back then, I was a younger trader, and retirement was not on my radar screen. Fast forward 15 years into the future, and you bet, retirement is a blip on my radar screen now, and I’m...
My advanced modeling and TV scripts recently turned BEARISH on the Daily SPY. This means the markets have moved into a RISK-OFF mode - likely preparing for additional downside trending. While the Weekly modeling continues to stay BULLISH, I'm writing this update to warn my followers that both the Rotational Modeling and the TT-3MACD strategies have turned...
2.22.23 Review: Wednesday Globex failed to continue lower, RTH Opened and failed to accept over 4012-08 and that gave us a test of 3994-89 bottom of our Daily Support where we found buyers on the first test. It was FOMC Day but things were still moving well. We did get another test and full break of 3994-89 which tells us we have supply but I think because it...
I'm publishing this as an alternative EW count. I've been suspicious of many of the attempts to label the waves off the 2022 top. This hypothesis will be labeled as a "WXY" to label a double zig zag pattern On the ES...my assertion is the true top was in Nov 2021. The ultimate top was part of a three wave move that I'm counting as part of a series of three wave...
2.21.23 Review: Tuesday Globex made a move under Previous Day Low and our 4061-56 Support. RTH Opened, filled the gap and got continuation lower into our next Daily Support at 4012-08. The way we opened/drove made me think there is a chance to break Daily Support but market held after the break and that tells us that selling is still mechanical and that its...
2.16-17.23 Review: Thursday we failed to continue over 4170 and failed to hold 4143-37 which gave us a move to our lower target down at T2 low and a break of 4103-4099. Friday we opened at potential support area and were able to hold it during the day due to short covering before the weekend with a move back towards potential resistance towards the close but...