So I'm sitting short from 4150 and still holding to see things go lower. Quick tidbit, the overnight plunge was likely spurred in some part by Russia reducing oil production by 500,000 barrels a day as punishment for sanctions. This is why oil prices spiked overnight also, although they've fallen back to under 1% (they were over 2% for a bit there). In terms of...
For those of you reading this who trade the ES futures market I have a question. How’s that choppy price action treating you? It’s hard trading chop. However, to those of us who analyze price action, it’s a big clue. It represents indecision in markets. The age-old battle of fear and greed tugging and pushing against each other. Chop usually reconciles in...
Now that we are at the top of the symmetrical triangle, I will expect prices to fall probably back down to the bottom triangle 3700-3800. I still hold in my belief that July will break the apex of the triangle and in the mean time we are range bound. Here is a now updated post on the Russel 2000 that played out perfectly as I planned. Compare it to the post...
Previous Day: Globex built out structure over 4168-62 but did not have enough buyers to get us to our Key Resistance area for the day and once the structure broke under 68-62 we got our move lower in RTH down to 4143-37 which broke easily and opened the door for lower targets and a bigger sell off but instead it took us half a day to pull back and take...
All in the video - it's very possible the top was in fact, last week. Watch the high from yesterday on SPX or ES, if we get over it we likely go to 4200 + but if we don't, there's a good chance we keep falling to 4k. The market is quiet and complacent at the moment but that could change today with the Fed speakers and Jobs data tomorrow. Good luck!
Overview for 2.07.23: Globex held between Key Intraday Resistance and 4123-19 Support, once structure broke it gave us pre market flush towards 4100 but failed to tag it and we again ran out of inventory. During Powell discussion volume came in took us over 4143-37 Resistance to our second Key Intraday Resistance from where we can see bigger seller stepped in...
Trend Line Liquidity Grab Completed -> Anticipating Significant Decline in Price Now!
Powell speaking today will be a wild card for the markets - a sort of mini fomc. I still expect a sell off to the daily 18ma at 4060 this week, but if we are going to have a final rally it should be from there (green path). If they sell hard under the 18 ma, it may act as resistance on any bounce (red path). One more up would give us regular bearish divergence...
Review for Monday 2.06.23: Sunday Globex opened up and held under our Key Support of 4143-37 giving us a break into our Daily Support area under 4123-19 but found short covering front running 4103-4099 area, we took 3 attempts at it and all failed to reach which was telling us no lower continuation yet. We stayed in a tighter range as we thought we might in...
Friday 2.03.23 Overview: Coming into the day we had our Globex inventory around 4168-62 Support which broke overnight, 8:30 am data gave us a flush taking out lower stops and finding support at our Key Intraday Support 4143-37, RTH Open didn't waste much time and corrected the inventory back inside the value and up to Intraday Resistance at 4191-85 this is an...
Technical review of the stock market after the FOMC rate hike and Jerome Powell speech. All in the video - I'm tired and will update tomorrow.
I am still bullish on the s&p and expect higher prices. We did some nice movement higher last week and a retracement is likely. This fits together with the Pow3 concept for a bullish week. On Monday I expect a drop to 4114, I think it has high probability to gap lower too. From 4114 I want to hunt for long entries and target 4221,25. From there I will see if it...
Market has been rallying despite potential upcoming recession. My suspicion that this is a large bull trap and there will be a large drop possibly even this week. Apple, Google and other large tech firms earnings were not great but their stocks mysteriously rallied. See their individual charts for possible gap up bull traps. Everything is poised for the rug to be...
Review: Today we saw that our suspicions about possibly finding a place to tighten up a bit to get ready for next move might have been correct, still have to see what we do in Globex but so far the information we have is we have accepted in this 4220 - 4137 intraday range, we have supply over 4220 - 15, we have built a support last night Globex under 4061 -...
Really hope I don't have to even explain this reasoning.. overbought AF.
Today was a fairly predictable day if you traded my morning update chart. On the morning update post I posted my activity for a scalp. I'm short -3 ES at 4207 for a scalp anticipating price getting down to 4150-4160 area. We can get down into the 4120 area without invalidating anything but if this is going to continue to extend we should not get down that low. ...
Tesla has collapsed for five straight months, much to the delight of everyone who hates Elon Musk. To tell you the truth, I think Musk is something of a combination between a psyop, a Fabian, and a guy with some conservative values who wants to protect the happy life he has, but am not particularly a fan of his and don't trust him. Regardless, the Mastodon...
Review For 2.01.23: Fun day with the Fed today, not sure I how missed so many signals today for a long trade and why I was so short biased coming into today after mentioning Friday that we had more in the tank the way we closed and from our pre Fed price action. If long at the break over 4084-77 was caught, it made a nice little run over our Daily Resistance...