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SPX500 - The Smallest Retrace & The First To GoI have to point out once again that, despite all the bearish fundamentals, market price action is simply not a bear market. You see this so clearly on SPX's monthly bars: During the worst of October, all the market was really doing was retracing to the two-month late 2020 orderblock that ultimately led to the 4,800 ATH. Price has since retraced and the markets at large don't like to dump, even on bad news. Even CPI coming in hot didn't lead to much of a dump. The Geopolitical Climate With China The most important factor when trading these markets is that you have to keep an eye on what's going on with China at all times. I've talked in my previous posts extensively and ad nauseum about how the Wuhan Pneumonia pandemic has killed a lot more people than the Chinese Communist Party and western establish media let on. But what this all points to is simply that the Party is in a weakened state. What the Party being in a weakened state means is that a number of geopolitical factions, most notably the western globalist (western Communist Party) bloc has its eyes on how to seize and take control of China as the evil regime falls. The way the globalists will do things is not to invade China, because the Chinese people and the world will not recognize a western occupation of the mainland. Instead, over the years, groups like the World Economic Forum and other globalist arms have, for a long period of time, been grooming certain Chinese nationals, who are themselves members of the Party, to make preparations for how to seize control of the country when Xi Jinping falls. The problem the globalists face is that they aspire to install a one world government. But to do that, they need the world's (formerly) largest population and oldest country, China. However, the existence of the CCP with its rogue, arrogant, and dominating nature makes this impossible, unless the globalists would like to make the CCP the center of the world government, which they obviously do not. Because they want to be the center of the world government. And so preparations have been in the works for years as to how to take control of China when the Party is gone. The problem for humanity is that China's 5,000 years of tradition and culture are critical for the future. Yet, everywhere the globalist faction goes you get a twisted, atheist, modernist culture that can't tell the difference between genders, is highly promiscuous, and serves in many ways as a force even worse than the CCP has been in its weakened state over the recent years. And so, this is the real threat: what the globalist faction will do when it feels the CCP is teetering on the edge. Anything is on the table, because a global crisis will be needed in advance. Environmental disasters, pandemics and plagues, war, problems with nuclear plants, social problems within certain countries, Project Bluebeam stuff, all are on the table. And all such risks are on the table at any time, and these problems are arranged to unfold when the markets are high, not low, so as to create an additional layer of pain and panic in both the business and civilian sectors. A layer of the crisis wherein everyone is losing a lot of money is important, because it hurts and causes a lot of damage, and the Party needs a significant and intense crisis in order to have the pretext needed to "save you" from as they install one world government, which is really, the "Ultimate Goal of Communism." So, be careful. Whatever you believe is your own business, but at least someone is willing to warn you of what is unfolding under your nose. The call On weekly bars you can see that the February FOMC pump came up just short of the September CPI gap surprise panic that led markets to the 2022 low of the year: What this should tell you is that no matter the bearish narrative prevailing or the bearish, scary impulse that may be coming, the SPX has not topped. Instead, I believe after we're finished being scary for a bit, we're going to see 4,500. Moreover, because I believe that Oil, Natural Gas, and even Silver are prone to go up in the shorterm, that the SPX's retrace is going to be the smallest, and it'll be the first of the indexes to go up. WTI Crude - Step 1) $88 --> Step 2) $58 Natural Gas? More Like Natural Go. 4-Handle Coming. Silver SI - A Simple Trendline and Levels Scalp A 200 point dump into the 3,800s is enough to make SPY calls expire worthless, enough to scare bulls, trap bears, and enough to give you a 15% upside for a run to 4,500. You need to fade the bear hype right now, but you also have to be careful about how and when you get in. That means utilizing ETFs, commons that compose the index, and calls that have a 3-6 month expiry, because things could take 30 or 45 days to really unfold and really breakout. But importantly, if you do see SPX 4,500 and 4,600, you have to check your enthusiasm. You might see a new ATH, but that ATH may serve to be a bump and run reversal that will seriously hurt you. And most critically, you need to focus your effort on improving your character, taking care of your family, and patching up whatever regrets you're carrying around. Because life is short. Human life is so short. Everyone is about to experience and understand again just how fragile human life really is. Be careful, friends.
CME_MINI:ES1!Long
by LordWrymouth
11
#ES_F 3.10.23 Day Trading Prep Thursday 3.09.23 Review : Yday RTH gave a perfect trade, we pushed over 3995-90 on pre market data, hit the upper part of our potential Daily Resistance and Key Intraday Resistance 4012-08, pushed above it and failed giving us a nice trade down to Key Intraday Support, once we broke we got a nice move down to 2 of the lower Support targets and hit our Daily Support that we were looking for. Friday 3.10.23 Prep : Contract rolled over, we are at Daily Support and its Friday with data coming here which tells us could be a wild day and maybe hard to trade. This week felt like a lot of work but a good trading week over all so will look to not get involved much today and maybe try to wait for that 1-2 good set ups once I see what we are working with. Very possible to see continuation under 3915 today as we cleaned out a lot of buyers from below if we have Supply to come out we could see this 3915-3890 Support break and get some continuation under it, IF we take out Prev Day Low we have 3901-3890 as an area to watch for hold or continuation from that we watch 3878-74 and 3866-53 areas for continuation IF things get crazy next Daily Support is 3809-3787. If we do run out of Supply today and more sellers dont come in we could see a push back towards T2 low and see if we can push back inside to accept but if not then we might need to go look for the bid again. Levels to Watch Resistance : Daily 4012-3990 Key Intraday 3976-71 // 3957-53 Key For Continuation Higher 3995-90 Support : Daily 3915-3890 Next Daily 3809-3790 Key Intraday 3937-27 // 3914-10 Current 3944-40 ***** This Prep is done on new contract price
CME_MINI:ES1!
by HollowMn
My todays' view on SPX500 futureHi Traders, This is my view for today on ES Micro and macro structure are aligned. Next target will be 3900 and can be reached immediately after a manipulation around Asian Session High or with a retest on 4000 level on a strong SUPPLY zone. (I’ll personally wait for this retest to go short). Pit, Trading Kitchen DISCLAIMER: Trading activity is very dangerous. All the contents, suggestions, strategies, videos, images, trade setups and forecast, everything you see on this website and are the result of my personal evaluations and was created for educational purposes only and not as an incentive to invest. Do not consider them as financial advice. ———————————
CME_MINI:ES1!Short
by kitchen_trading
SP500, why you should be carefull on the current rally.SP500 / Multi-Time-Frame. AUDUSD / 4H Dear Traders, I warmly welcome you to this free and educational multi-timeframe technical analysis on SP500 pair. From a weekly viewpoint, in my opinion, SPY looks remarkably bearish . A Double top formation with a previous high on the monthly time frame, and the downward trend has already begun as seen from last month's close. Everything appears to be pointing towards the onset of the next bear move. Currently, on the daily timeframe , we are experiencing a pull-back to the Broken support that might turn into resistance. Therefore, I am patiently waiting for my sell zone to be reached and will be looking on lower time frames for a good entry point in case I get my entry creteria validated. Trade safely, Trader Leo.
PEPPERSTONE:US500Short
by Leo-btm
17
#ES_F 3.09.23 Day Trading Prep Wednesday 3.08.23 Review : Consolidated under previous Daily Support with a few attempts to break 3976-71 Key Intraday Support but we held within this 4015-3975 balance. Best trade was when we hit double top in E 11:30 Period, gave a nice trade down to Intraday Support, was thinking we fill finally have more supply to break and continue but so far that has not been the case which tells us its controlled mark down selling with stops at good support areas. Thursday 3.09.23 Prep : Will see continuation lower today or do we have enough to again hold and maybe even push higher? We have been holding under Previous Daily Support of 4012-3990 for two days now with Supply trapped above. We are looking like we could see more selling today as we are at the T2 and Previous Day Lows, under Previous Daily Support, have Supply above and have this nice sideways action to built up, 3976-71 is again our Key Intraday Support to watch as that is the area we need to take out and accept under to see a move towards next potential Support to see what we do there. If we do hold Intraday Support or bounce from 3957-53 area and get back over 3976-71 then we could see more balancing action in this 4025-3976 range, 3995-90 is our Current Resistance and 4012-08 will be our Key Resistance today. Levels to Watch Resistance : Daily 4012-3990 Key Intraday 4012-08 // 4030-25 Current 3995-90 Support : Daily 3915-3890 Key Intraday 3976-71 // 3957-53
CME_MINI:ES1!
by HollowMn
Weekly Update: ES to 3800The last several weeks I have written about the move to the 3800 level and with the smaller chance of a direct move to the low 3,000 level right now. Clearly, there are people on both sides of the bullish/bearish equation and they’re not shy to share their support or disdain for my forecasts. I’m grateful for that, because that is what makes a market. However, the price action is voting now and, although not there as of my writing this update, it appears my targets will be hit. I will not spend an outsized amount of time regurgitating my analysis. I will point out that events that encompass a super cycle retrace of gains, is a reversion to the mean of what brought us to this event. Yes, I’m talking about inflation and the unprecedented hikes in interest rates. This boils down to a new way of thinking. The acceptance of higher interest rates is the main one. Inflation will ebb and flow, but interest rates are going far higher over the longer term than most think…and most will accept right now.
CME_MINI:ES1!Short
by maikisch
4
#ES_F 3.07.23 Day Trading Prep Monday 3.06.23 Review : Globex pushed us into the resistance area at 4061-56, RTH Opened on Gap up and buyers came in for continuation, we hit our upper early in the day and then consolidated below it. 4084-77 was our key area for continuation higher and we failed to take it out and showed weakness at it instead, until we built up enough Supply which gave us a nice short trade towards Previous Days range. Tuesday 3.07.23 Prep : Are we getting any move out today or staying in balance? We have Powell doing something at 10 and we are at an important location, we have few weeks of Supply above us over 4084 - 4100 and we possibly trapped enough shorts under 4030 - 4015 to give us Support. These are the areas to watch for a move out of this current 4077-4030 range. We have been going sideways in smaller range all night around this 4061-56 Resistance area and we have to see what we do from here. We are right in the middle of the range inside yesterdays value which tells us it could be choppy and also the range has been tight so far which is not ideal for trading until that changes. 4084-77 is still our Key Resistance for continuation higher and any break down would need to break and accept under 4030-25 for continuation, until then can stay in balance. Levels to Watch Resistance : Key Daily 4103-4084 Key Intraday 4084-77 // 4103-4099 Current 4061-56 Support : Key Daily 4012-3990 Key Intraday 4030-25 // 4012-08 Current 4046-42
CME_MINI:ES1!
by HollowMn
My today's view on ESHi Traders, This is my view for today on ES. First strong LONG reaction which puts me on a BULLISH perspective today. So 3960 could be a good zone to let the price re-aligning with the bullish micro structure. Anyway, the Macro one's tells me we're bearish yet and the strong supply zone on 4120 could be good for us. I remind you that this is only a forecast based on what current data are. I really hope you liked this content and I would like to know what do you think about this analysis, so please use the comment section below to give me your point of view. Pit, Trading Kitchen DISCLAIMER: Trading activity is very dangerous. All the contents, suggestions, strategies, videos, images, trade setups and forecast, everything you see on this website and are the result of my personal evaluations and was created for educational purposes only and not as an incentive to invest. Do not consider them as financial advice. ———————————
CME_MINI:ES1!Long
by kitchen_trading
#ES_F 3.06.23 Day Trading Prep Friday 3.03.23 Review : Friday Globex consolidated at Previous Day High, took the stops at night and we opened on a gap up over Previous Day High in RTH. Failed to closed the gap and gave a push towards the upper resistance target and a move above it into the next Supply area. Monday 3.06.23 Prep : What are our options today, Will this move higher hold and we can continue today? Was this short covering move front running bigger support and we will continue lower today to find more buyers or do we need to balance again before deciding next bigger direction? Globex is building stops above Previous day high inside our Supply possible Resistance area, we are under Daily Resistance with few weeks of Supply above that we have already flushed but not everyone sells at once. We are inside Previous Days Range, above T2 range with not much Support below us which means size will break the lower levels if we find sellers up here today. If we dont have size sellers come in today at these higher areas and we can hold above 4030-25 and 4046-42 then we could see another attempt at 4061-56 and next resistance area above. If we fail to get over and Previous Day high and hold/continue higher we could see a move down towards Previous Day Half Back under 4030-25 level, that would be key area for continuation lower today, we do have some support under but if size sellers come in we can see us head for the Daily area we just broke out of around 4012-3990 which is also our T2 High area, if we do get there that would be the area to watch for acceptance in T2 range and continuation lower. Currently we are in 4077-4030 range and if we arent going to make a move out then we could also trade within this area from the edges. Levels to Watch Resistance : Key Daily 4100-4084 // 4084-61 Key Intraday 4061-56 Key For Continuation Higher 4084-77 Support : Key Daily 4012-3990 Next Daily 3915-3890 Key Intraday 4030-25 // 4012-08 Key For Continuation Lower 3994-88 // 3976-71
CME_MINI:ES1!
by HollowMn
Longest streak of consecutive down days since September 2022Since October 2022, we kept reiterating that the primary downtrend had not ended and that we were merely seeing another bear market rally. Furthermore, we were monitoring the market’s sentiment, which changed from “FED’s pivot” hopes (in October 2022) to a “soft landing” narrative (in December 2022/January 2023). However, in line with our expectations, weak corporate earnings and outlook downgrades combined with hawkish FED started to test the bullish thesis about the market recovery. SPX closed down six days in a row, representing the longest streak of consecutive down days since September 2022. That can make a case for a short-term rebound in the price of SPX. Although, we do not expect it to impact the primary downtrend. We anticipate higher interest rates to slow down the U.S. economy and worsening economic data to spook the market participants. In addition to that, we see a high risk of a strong selloff if inflation accelerates again, just like in some European countries. For example, the preliminary data showed that inflation increased to 6.1% (YoY) in February 2023 from 5.9% (YoY) in January 2023. In addition to that, core inflation accelerated to 7.7% (YoY) in February 2023, up from 7.5% (YoY) in January 2023. The same applies to France, which saw two consecutive months of accelerating inflation. Since the FED faces the same threat, we do not expect it to change its course of monetary policy. Quite contrarily, some FED members are already vocal about the FOMC reverting back to 50 basis point rate hikes (which we do not see as very likely at this point). Despite that, we believe the U.S. economy is not out of the woods and has many obstacles ahead. Accordingly, we maintain a bearish view of the market beyond the short term. Illustration 1.01 Illustration 1.01 shows the daily chart of SPX. Interestingly, SPX experienced six consecutive down days, the longest streak since September 2022. Technical analysis Daily time frame = Bearish (very weak trend) Weekly time frame = Neutral Illustration 1.02 Illustration 1.02 displays the daily chart of SPX. Interestingly, SPX seems to be forming a narrow range between Support 1 and Resistance 1. Please feel free to express your ideas and thoughts in the comment section. DISCLAIMER: This analysis is not intended to encourage any buying or selling of any particular securities. Furthermore, it should not be a basis for taking any trade action by an individual investor. Therefore, your own due diligence is highly advised before entering a trade.
SP:SPX
by Tradersweekly
31
#ES_F 3.03.23 Day Trading Prep 3.02.23 Review : Globex broke 57-44 Support area and was holding under before RTH signaling weakness but that and 32-27 were important areas to stay under and break, RTH Open failed to break 32-27 then we got over 3944-40 and per our morning prep IF we hold 32-27 and managed to get over 44-40 and hold that opens the door for higher resistance target and we got a move back towards our Daily Resistance area around 3990. We failed to tag next Daily Support which tells us we got front ran by short covering. 3.03.23 Prep: Did we run out of supply and now ready to either hold or continue higher? Or was this move inventory correction from Wednesday close and short covering before Daily Support and we will head for that area again? Right now we are holding in our Daily Resistance area of 4012-3990, this and 3976-71 will be important areas to hold today for either balance or continuation over 4012 towards 4030. If we fail to accept in 4012-3990 area and get under it that will signal weakness and a possible move wards 3976-71 where we don't have as much Support under, if that breaks we can see a move lower again to test our T2 and Previous Days lows and possibly look below them. If we do hold 76-71 and are able to stay over 94-90 we can see a move higher towards the top of Daily Resistance at 4012-08 where we would watch for continuation above or not, that will be our Key Resistance area for today. Levels to Watch Resistance : Key Daily 4012-3990 Key Intraday 4012-08 Key For Continuation Higher 4030-25 Support : Key Daily 3915-3890 Key Intraday 3976-71 Current 3994-90 ? Key For Continuation 3957-53
CME_MINI:ES1!
by HollowMn
Did stocks just bottom? Are they going higher or lower?It looks like stocks bottomed today, but what is my evidence, and why would I say that? 1. This correction has been very orderly, and VIX has been going down along with stocks, which means something is happening. 2. Stocks have held exceptionally well despite rising interest rates and the DXY. 3. We have continuous liquidity injections by most central banks, and that doesn't just mean the BoJ and PBoC. Since the Sep-Nov issues that bond markets faced globally, even the Fed and Treasury have increased market liquidity. 4. Current debts can't be repaid. That's why bonds are going down (yields up). There is no way governments can't pay these dividends through taxation and can only repay them with printed money. Now you can hold both a depreciating asset that pays dividends and riskier assets. Chasing a fool's yield isn't ideal, but it's a strategy. Higher yields = more money supply will be created. High inflation isn't necessarily bad for stock markets, contrary to what the majority wrongly believes. 5. During this correction, sentiment has become increasingly bearish, with most investors being bearish. At the CryptoBullSociety, in private channels, as well as on my Twitter account, I have been talking about the market piercing the 200 DMA and bottoming. Yesterday I shared bullish ideas on Tradingview for metals and Chinese stocks, which also permeates to US stocks after such a substantial rise since Oct 2022; the market needed to test bulls and, as usual, pull into the golden cross before going higher. On their way up, stocks swept some highs and filled some gaps, but some gaps were left unfilled higher, along with some newly formed double tops. Even if markets are about to go lower, I believe SPX will first test 4350-4400 and then go lower. By lower, I mean more of a sideways market than a continuation of the bear market or an outright crash. So far, we have seen the major US indices pull into their crosses, test support, sweep lows, and today form a reversal candle. Below are many US-related charts showing all the potential targets (double tops, double bottoms, etc.). The reason why I call them targets is that the market tends to break these structures. As we've been trending higher, it's more likely we will first take out the double tops and then the double bottoms. Currently, nothing indicates a crash, while there are indications of a bottom being in. To be clear, I am not saying we are ready to fly to the moon tomorrow, although we could. Given the system's structure, with most governments being broke, more money will be created. Below you can see some charts of other stock markets, like the GER40 (DAX), UK100 (FTSE), and CN50 (CHINA). I also added the S&P500 value index, IVE. UK100 is at new ATHs, GER40 near highs seem to be in tight consolidation before expansion, CN50 appears to be back in a bullish trend after capitulation (something I talked about in yesterday's idea, which you can find below), and IVE almost made new ATHs a few weeks ago. My overall point is that sentiment is bearish, while I believe liquidity will keep increasing, causing a short squeeze that could last at least until SPX gets to 4350. As I've mentioned in my previous ideas, it's unlikely that we would get a 2000 or 2008 crash so quickly after the Fed started tightening, and if we get one, it will probably be in Q4 2023 or Q1 2024. The path I've drawn in the chart is what I see as the most likely one, followed by another significant correction. Of course, I could be wrong, so my stop loss is at 3840
FX:SPX500Long
by BitcoinMacro
1