S&P500 Long and painful but necessary bottom formation.The S&P500 index (SPX) has been trading within a 2-year Bullish Megaphone pattern and the recent 2-month correction completed its latest Bearish Leg, as it reached the Higher Lows trend-line.
The massive rebound that took place there on April 07 may have turned out to be a highly volatile one but as mentioned on the title, it might be long and painful, but a necessary process nonetheless. That's mainly because it is the strongest correction since 2022 and the longest Bearish Leg of the pattern.
The market remains highly volatile until it gets a clear signal, bearish below the current Support of the 1W MA200 (red trend-line) or bullish above the 1D MA50 (blue trend-line). Despite the rather short-term uncertainty, the similarities with the Megaphone's previous bottom are uncanny, both having formed their Low on 1D RSI Double Bottom patterns.
Given that this previous Low initiated a massive +50% 1 year Bullish Leg/ rally, we expect to see at least 7100 on this next one by mid-2026.
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S&P 500 E-Mini Futures
MES1!/ES1! Day Trade Plan for 04/23/2025MES1!/ES1! Day Trade Plan for 04/23/2025
📈 5512
📉 5440
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*These levels are derived from comprehensive backtesting and research and a quantitative system demonstrating high accuracy. This statistical foundation suggests that price movements are likely to exceed initial estimates.*
S&P500: Bottomed on an Inverse Head and Shoulders.The S&P500 index is bearish on its 1D technical outlook (RSI = 36.973, MACD = -126.240, ADX = 31.007) but long term appears to have bottomed on an Inverse Head and Shoulders pattern. In fact, the Head made a low on the Double Bottom and the bearish outlook is currently due to the Right Shoulder formation. A crossing over the dashed LH trendline and even better the 4H MA200, would aim for the 2.0 Fibonacci extension (TP = 6,280).
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Weekly Market Forecast: Stocks Markets Are Stalled! Patience!In this video, we will analyze the S&P 500, NASDAQ, and DOW JONES futures for the week of April 21 - 25th
The Markets are stalled! No bullish follow through from the previous week. Last week failed to break the previous weekly high. This stall out looks consolidative and unclear. Wait for clarity! Let the markets break the high or low of the range convincingly... and trade accordingly.
Enjoy!
May profits be upon you.
Leave any questions or comments in the comment section.
I appreciate any feedback from my viewers!
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Thank you so much!
Disclaimer:
I do not provide personal investment advice and I am not a qualified licensed investment advisor.
All information found here, including any ideas, opinions, views, predictions, forecasts, commentaries, suggestions, expressed or implied herein, are for informational, entertainment or educational purposes only and should not be construed as personal investment advice. While the information provided is believed to be accurate, it may include errors or inaccuracies.
I will not and cannot be held liable for any actions you take as a result of anything you read here.
Conduct your own due diligence, or consult a licensed financial advisor or broker before making any and all investment decisions. Any investments, trades, speculations, or decisions made on the basis of any information found on this channel, expressed or implied herein, are committed at your own risk, financial or otherwise.
GC1! Gold Futures Weekly Outlook. Expecting Mid week reversalCOMEX:GC1!
Expecting a massive meltdown on Gold after $3400. On the Daily Internal Range Liquidity.
Trading All Time Highs is different compare to trading when you have a data on the left. Very volatile conditions on GOLD. I will buy from a 4H orderflow upto $3400. Then would short from $3400 CME_MINI:NQ1!
E-mini S&P 500 Outlook for next week. Thought process is the same just like NQ1!. Want massive buyside expansion. But weekly profiles need to be there. Tuesday/Wednesday Low of the Week is what I' personally looking for.
So expecting an SMT Divergence on the Previous Weekly Sellside . And then a massive push up.
2nd Stage Distribution on Market Maker Buy Model. Offset it is. Crosshairs on 5529
S&P500 Should the FED LEAVE POLITICS aside and finally cut??The S&P500 index (SPX, illustrated by the blue trend-line) has been under heavy selling pressure in the past 3 months, basically the start of the year, but Fed Chair Jerome Powell insisted once again yesterday that the Fed is on a wait-and-see mode, without the urge to cut rates. But can it afford not to do so?
A detailed look into the past 35 years of recorded Yield Curve (US10Y-US02Y) price action, shows that when it flattens and rebounds, the Fed steps in and cuts the interest rates (orange trend-line). It did so last year but paused/ stopped the process in an attempt to get Inflation (black trend-line) under control to the desired 2% target.
As you see on that 1M chart though, this hasn't always been beneficial for stocks as especially for September 2007 and January 2001, it took place parallel to the Housing and Dotcom Crises. This however happened both times when Inflation and Rates were both high.
The Inflation Rate now seems to be at a low level (and dropping) that has been consistent with market bottoms and not tops. As a result, it appears that it is more likely we are in a curve reversal that is consistent with bull trend continuation for the stock market, after short-term corrections, in our opinion either post March 2020 (COVID crash) or pre-2000, which is consistent to previous studies we've made that the current A.I. Bubble market is in similar early mania stages like the Dotcom Bubble in the early-mid 1990s.
So to answer the original question, we believe that the Fed can afford to cut the Interest Rates now and offset some of the medium-term slow in growth that the trade tariffs may inflict and as there are more probabilities it will do more good to the stock market than harm.
Your thoughts?
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Bulls and Bears zone for 04-16-2025Earlier this week S&P 500 has formed a Death Cross which could be significant or not only time will tell.
Any test of yesterday's Close could provide direction for the day.
Level to watch: 5354 --- 5356
Reports to watch:
U.S. Housing Market Index at 10:00AM EST
U.S. Jerome Powell Speaks at 1:30PM EST
S&P500 1D Death Cross formed! Market COLLAPSE or Bear TRAP? The S&P500 index (SPX) is attempting to recover from the April 07 2025 market low, following the 90-day Tariff pause.
Last Thursday however it formed a Death Cross on the 1D time-frame, he first since May 11 2022, which was during the last Inflation Crisis correction. That was nothing like the current crash though as it was a technical 1-year Bear Cycle in contrast to today which is a flash crash inflicted by Trump's tariffs.
What looks though most similar to today is the 2020 COVID crash. Equally fast and brutal, that sell-off also took place under an extreme pressure environment of uncertainty (economic lockdowns) which the world has never seen, similar to today's tariffs that admittedly have put (for the moment) an end to the U.S. - China trade.
The COVID crash phase also formed a 1D Death Cross just 4 days after the March 23 2020 bottom. Last Thursday's 1D Death Cross came also just 3 days after the April 07 2025 Low. If this pattern of extreme market shock is a repetitive model under such fundamental events, then the stock market has bottomed. And if it follows the exact same recovery pattern as post-COVID, then it may reach the 1.1 Fibonacci extension at 6300 in a little over 5 months (162 days).
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S&P500: Bottom is in. 5,800 Target imminent.S&P500 is almost neutral on its 1D technical outlook (RSI = 44.927, MACD = -131.940, ADX = 29.116) as it has recovered from the tariff selloff, finding support a little over the 1W MA200. The 1D RSI made a double bottom and is much like the October 27th 2023 bottom. Both DB bullish divergences in contrast to the LL of the price. The immediate target on the rebound that followed in 2023 was the R1 level. Trade: long, TP = 5,800.
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Weekly Market Forecast: Stocks Markets Could Push Higher!In this video, we will analyze the S&P 500, NASDAQ, and DOW JONES futures for the week of April 14-18th.
The Stock Market Indices ended a turbulent week on a bullish note, and next week could see some continuation. The markets have peeked above the consolidation, and could be on the way to resume the overall bullish trend.
Wait for confirmations of the trend before jumping in! One bad report of tariffs or geo-political news can turn the markets down at any time.
Enjoy!
May profits be upon you.
Leave any questions or comments in the comment section.
I appreciate any feedback from my viewers!
Like and/or subscribe if you want more accurate analysis.
Thank you so much!
Disclaimer:
I do not provide personal investment advice and I am not a qualified licensed investment advisor.
All information found here, including any ideas, opinions, views, predictions, forecasts, commentaries, suggestions, expressed or implied herein, are for informational, entertainment or educational purposes only and should not be construed as personal investment advice. While the information provided is believed to be accurate, it may include errors or inaccuracies.
I will not and cannot be held liable for any actions you take as a result of anything you read here.
Conduct your own due diligence, or consult a licensed financial advisor or broker before making any and all investment decisions. Any investments, trades, speculations, or decisions made on the basis of any information found on this channel, expressed or implied herein, are committed at your own risk, financial or otherwise.
BIG BIG weekI think 7 FED speakers,
A lot of tension in the markets, tops mean polarisation, considering reflexivity theory extreme volatility will ensue.
A lot of people might think the -0.786 ATH we got before the holidays is the top. I think they are mistaken as seen in the analysis below.
There is still legroom for higher, this is a big bet on my part.
I have a few contracts on the mag7 (GOOGL, TSLA and META) focusing on GOOGL since they seem to be in the same headwind as S&P
Let's see how this plays out
VIX Hits 27-Year Extreme. Is the Market About to CRASH or SOAR?The Volatility Index (VIX displayed by the blue trend-line) has entered a level that has visited only another 5 times in the last 27 years (since August 1998)! That is what we've called the 'VIX Max Panic Resistance Zone'. As the name suggests that indicates ultimate panic for the stock markets, which was fueled by massive sell-offs, leading to extreme volatility and uncertainty.
So the obvious question arises: 'Is this Good or Bad for the market??'
The answer is pretty clear if you look at the chart objectively and with a clear perspective. In 4 out of those 5 times, the S&P500 (SPX) bottomed exactly on the month of the VIX Max Panic signal. It was only during the 2008 U.S. Housing Crisis that VIX hit the Max Panic Zone in October 2008 but bottomed 5 months late in March 2009.
As a result, this is historically a very strong opportunity for a multi-year buy position. If anything, today's VIX situation looks more similar to September 2011 or even the bottom of the previous U.S. - China Trade war in March 2020.
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S&P500 Vast Support from previous High. New 2 year Bull started.The S&P500 / US500 has reached a bottom and is rebounding.
The rebound is taking place just over the 1week MA200 but also the key pivot line that was previously a Cycle High and now turned Support.
We have seen this another 2 times in the last 10 years and both time caused a massive rally.
This puts an end to the tariff war correction and based on the chart starts a new 2 year Bull Cycle.
Minimum rise before was +58%. Target 7600.
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S&P500: Trump's 90-day tariff pause just saved the day??S&P500 is having so far a +9.50% rise from today's low as even though Trump announced a 125% raise to China tariffs, he lowered and paused tariffs for 90 days to all countries that contacted the U.S. for negotiation. The 1D technical outlook is about to get neutral (RSI = 42.537, MACD = -181.510, ADX = 39.036) as the rebound is taking place at the HL bottom of the Bullish Megaphone, while the 1W MA200 stayed intact.
A similar Megaphone was last seen during the previous 2018 Trade War and was completed with the COVID crash that started an abnormal rally to new ATH to correct the equally abnormal crash. Needless to say, it was based on quick rate cuts but the situation isn't all that different today. Trump's stance towards negotiating, coupled with highly anticipated rate cuts, can deliver an equally abnormal rally now.
The previous HH of the Bullish Megaphone hit the 2.0 Fibonacci extension. This time if the rally extends to the end of the year, targeting the 1.5 - 1.618 Fibonacci Zone would be considered fair (TP = 6,900).
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S&P500 Dead Cat Bounce or V-shaped Recovery?The S&P500 index (SPX) saw a remarkable turnaround yesterday after the Wall Street opening. The early futures sell-off came very close to the 1W MA200 (orange trend-line), which has been the ultimate Support level since the March 2009 Housing Crisis bottom (the last major Bear Cycle).
It supported the 2022 Inflation Crisis, the 2018 U.S. - China Trade War, the 2015 E.U./ Oil Crisis and 2011 correction. It only broke during the irregularity of the March 2020 COVID flash crash.
Note that the 1W RSI hitting 27.30 has only happened during the COVID crash and the actual March 2009 Housing Crisis Bottom. At the same time, the index reached the All Time High (ATH) trend-line (dashed0 of the High before the 2022 Inflation Crisis (previous correction phase). As this chart shows, previous ATH trend-lines have never been broken during the correction phases that followed them.
In any case, the million dollar question is of course this: Was yesterday a Dead Cat Bounce inside the new Bear Cycle or we are ahead of a V-shaped recovery? Well technically it depends on the 1W MA200 (the market needs 1W candles to close above it) while fundamentally if depends on potential trade deals and of course the Fed (the market needs rate cut assurances).
If this is a V-shaped Recovery indeed, there is no reason not to expect the market to follow all previous rebounds of 1W MA200 corrections that weren't Bear Cycles (Bear Cycles on this chart are 2008 and 2022).
As you can see, all rebounds have been sharp, indeed V-shaped recoveries, ranging from 20 to 27 weeks (140 - 189 days) until they broke their previous High. So this indicates that technically, SPX should make new ATH by October 13 2025 the latest (and September 02 earliest). Of course this is just a projection, this time we have no COVID shutdowns, no Grexits or Brexits, no Oil crises, it is all due to one fact, the tariffs and if deals are reached and the Fed delivers the much needed rat cuts, the recovery may be even faster, as sharp as the correction has been.
The facts are on the historic data on the chart. The conclusions are yours.
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Weekly Market Forecast: Short Term Buys, Then Sells! In this video, we will analyze the S&P 500, NASDAQ, AND DOW JONES Futures for the week of April 7 - 11th.
The Stock Market Indices may find support at current levels for a Bear Market Rally. Wait for the market structure shift to the upside before taking any buys. Let the market confirm it's intended direction first, then look for valid buy setups for a short term countertrend play.
Enjoy!
May profits be upon you.
Leave any questions or comments in the comment section.
I appreciate any feedback from my viewers!
Like and/or subscribe if you want more accurate analysis.
Thank you so much!
Disclaimer:
I do not provide personal investment advice and I am not a qualified licensed investment advisor.
All information found here, including any ideas, opinions, views, predictions, forecasts, commentaries, suggestions, expressed or implied herein, are for informational, entertainment or educational purposes only and should not be construed as personal investment advice. While the information provided is believed to be accurate, it may include errors or inaccuracies.
I will not and cannot be held liable for any actions you take as a result of anything you read here.
Conduct your own due diligence, or consult a licensed financial advisor or broker before making any and all investment decisions. Any investments, trades, speculations, or decisions made on the basis of any information found on this channel, expressed or implied herein, are committed at your own risk, financial or otherwise.