S&P 500 E-Mini Futures
S&P500 Shifted to new bullish pattern. 5750 next.The S&P500 index (SPX) made a major bullish break-out in accordance to our previous analysis (June 17, see chart below), where we clearly stated that a break above the 1.5-year (Fibonacci) Channel Up pattern it would indicate a transition to a new (blue) Channel Up:
As you can see that happened and the index is extending that blue Channel, with the long-term prevailing pattern now being the dashed Channel Up. Technically it appears that the price is rising straight after finishing a Cup consolidation structure that is no stranger to it as we've seen it another two times, always leading in the end either to a 2.383 Fibonacci extension target or around +30% rise from the top.
On the current Bullish Leg, the 2.382 Fibonacci extension comes much lower than a potential +30% rise from the April 19 bottom, so as mentioned on our previous analysis, we will be targeting (this time slightly lower) at 5750. If the 2.382 Fib breaks and we close a 1W candle above it, we will extend buying all the way to +30%, i.e. just above 6300.
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Es Target and Levels for July 4thThis week my main target in ES was 5582 from Tuesday’s failed breakdown at 5506. We hit it. 5596 was next up, been basing here all night. Holiday today, hold runners/do nothing As of now: As long as buyers are above 5582-78: 5603-5607, 5615+ next up. Dip if 5578 fails
S&P500: Final Sprint!Although the current wave 5 in turquoise has already reached a significant size, and the high should be placed soon, we cannot yet regard it as completed. We therefore continue to give the movement room to the upside. As soon as the high is established, the index should turn and head for our magenta Target Zone (coordinates: 4681 - 4434 points). However, please note our alternative scenario (40% probable). In this case, the index would place the top of the green wave alt. (3) with the next high. Consequently, a reversal and a transition into the wave alt.(5) could already be expected in our green Target Zone (coordinates: 5056 - 4878 points).
ES Levels & Targets For July 3rdYesterday morning, ES printed an excellent failed breakdown of the previous days low at 5506, triggering longs for seasoned buyers. After that, all upside targets I shared yesterday hit with ease, and now ES has been basing all night. Half trading day today. As of now: As long as buyers are above 5558, 5575, 5582 next up. 5558 fails, dip to 5542
ES Targets For TodayFor the past week it's been about one level: 5519…which paid out over 150 points so far in total. Last night, we tested it for 16th time, bounced 8 points right up to 5527 target, then lost it. Currently attempting to hold a major support. As of now: 5503-06 is all a major support with 5519 the obvious backtest area. Buyers must reclaim it to put in a bottom. 5503 fails, dip to 5492-24ish
ES Levels & Targets for July 1st/TipFor y’all that don’t know, July 1st is the most bullish day of the year seasonally, green 90% of years sice 2003 and up for the last 13 years straight. What does that mean for us? Absolutely nothing, because we trade price, not seasonals. Of course, these tendencies are good to keep in the back of your head as are all seasonal tendencies, but when it comes to actual trading, we trade the same way we do every day. Wait for the setups, take them without bias, manage it level to level, repeat. We must trade what is in front of us, not averages.
Specifically for tomorrow, 5519 has been a true ATM machine in CME_MINI:ES1! . From where we are now, I see 5519-5582 as being a large chop zone. But as buyers keep holding 5519, we can continue filling the range out.. This would mean retesting 5539, perhaps dip, then heading to 5557-60 again. If 5519 fails, buyers will have to reclaim it quick or sellers can try to start a deep leg down for a move sub 5500.
🏯 TOPIX FUTURES: JAPANESE BULL SAMURAI IS STILL ALIVELegendary investor Warren Buffett was on a trip to Tokyo, the capital of Japan, two months earlier in mid-April 2023, and the titans of the country's giant energy and commodity conglomerates were there to make their presentations.
As usual, over glasses of Coca-Cola NYSE:KO - one of Buffett's most famous investments, they walked into Warren Buffett's suite at the luxury Four Seasons hotel and individually told the 92-year-old American investor the same thing: Japanese trading houses are cheap and should accelerate their move beyond commodities.
The support of the Oracle of Omaha is an important vote of confidence in the big five Japanese trading houses - Mitsubishi Corporations TSE:8058 , Mitsui TSE:8031 , Sumitomo TSE:8053 , Itochu TSE:8001 and Marubeni TSE:8002
It's also a broad endorsement of Japan, that is considered to have outlived its heyday 30-35 years ago, as well as considered less relevant than Asian counterparts such as China and India.
But there's one big question: Is Buffett betting on phasing out fossil fuels, the trading house products themselves, or a combination of the two? Or something else, like impact of the weak yen!?
Buffett's Berkshire Hathaway NYSE:BRK.B reported in August 2020 that it had acquired about 5% of the shares of five trading houses, that sent their stocks up and raised their total investment value above $6 billion. When the Covid-19 pandemic dampened demand for goods, it pushed down the value of company stocks, four of which traded below book value.
“They were selling, I thought, at a ridiculous price,” - Buffett said to CNBC in March 2023.
Three years after the Covid-19 pandemic (that is now hardly remembered) Warren Buffett's bets on Japan have nearly tripled to over $17 billion.
But even this Growth does not stop Buffett. Staying in Tokyo this spring, Buffett confirmed intentions to buy more shares, and participate in more big deals.
In addition, Berkshire recently unveiled plans to issue its own yen-denominated bonds, which help hedge against the depreciation of the yen against the US dollar as well as depreciation of Japanese stocks in dollar terms.
The technical main chart is dedicated to futures on the TOPIX index TSE:TOPIX widely known, along with the Nikkei 225 index $TSE:NKY .
The TOPIX index is an important stock market index for the Tokyo Stock Exchange (TSE) in Japan, tracking all the local companies of the TSE Prime-market division.
Buffett's mission to Japan marked, as it easy to find in the technical picture of TOPIX ( TSE:TOPIX ) - a significant moment, as a result of the breakdown of the key long-term resistance, with the prospect of further more than doubling the index TSE:TOPIX and its market value.
Bulls and Bears zone for 06-28-2024So far this week, three days in a row S&P has been making slow gains. However, intraday trading has been range bound.
Any test of yesterday's Close could provide direction for the day.
Level to watch : 5554 --- 5556
News to watch:
945am: US Chicago PMI
10am : US Consumer Sentiment
S&P500 Seeking the 4H MA200 for buyersThe S&P500 index (SPX) got rejected at the top of the 2-month Channel Up that started on the April 19 bottom and is already below the 4H MA50 (blue trend-line). This is a sign of weakness for the short-term and based on the previous two times it did so, it might be accelerated.
Technically, the market should seek the 4H MA200 (orange trend-line) as the Support, which is what took place on the previous Higher Low of the Channel Up on May 31. We are looking to turn bullish again close to the 4H MA200 and target 5650, which is not only at the top of the Channel Up but also below the 2.618 Fibonacci extension, which is where the previous two Higher Highs got priced.
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OHLC Stat Mapping Cooks Every Day & Every Week and it won't stopOn ES OHLC STAT MAPPING Cooked as Always! Do you see that precision? that is hilarious and definetely not random... just checkout my profile and see how many examples I have there with this insane tool. forever grateful I discovered this tool.
S&P 500: One last ClimbWe see the S&P 500 primarily on the last few meters of the magenta wave (1). Although it is of course absolutely possible that we have already seen the high, the price is likely to rebound once more before it brings this movement to an end. Subsequently, we expect a medium-sized correction in the form of the magenta wave (2), which should extend to our same-colored Target Zone between 4851 and 4678 points.
ES Trade Plan, June 20thExcellent follow through from buyers. And this is charting 101. Tuesday here, I pshared that ES is bull flagging for rally to 5567, 5575, 5585-90. We just hit 85-90. All bonus now for buyers from here. As of now, 5575-76 (weak now), 5560-62 (weak) are supports. Buyers must hold above to keep 5595, 5610 in play . we sell if 5560 fails. CME_MINI:ES1!
ES analysis JuneteenthCME_MINI:ES1! NYSE is closed & ES closes at 1pm - no volume today, dont overtrade. Yesterday, ES was bull flagging to set up a push to 5564, 5575+. Patience paid & we hit 5564. Been basing here since. As of now: Lock in those gains here, hold runner and keep it a risk free day. 5560 is support. Keeps 5576-78, 5585+ in play. 5560 fails, dip to 5549
S&P500 targeting 5800 if this level breaks.The S&P500 index (SPX) recovered from April's correction and rebounded on the 1D MA50 (blue trend-line) during late May's consolidation, much faster than all previous corrective phases within the 1.5 year Channel Up pattern.
This has resulted in the price testing again the top of that pattern, first time since April 01. So far it has been there but failed to break it 3 days in a row, which is an accelerating bearish signal and as long as it fails to break upwards, we expect another test (at least) of the 1D MA50.
If it does break though, and since as mentioned this corrective phase has been faster and weaker than the previous, there are higher probabilities to do so, we expect a new (blue) short-term Channel Up to emerge. That would be similar to the previous 2 Bullish Legs of the long-term Channel Up, only this time it will break above it and take the index to a new dominant pattern.
In any case, our medium-term Target on that occasion wil be 5800, even though on the long-term, we can see at least a +25% rise from the April 19 bottom.
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ES1! - TIME TO LOOK FOR SHORT ENTRIES OPPORTUNITIES - WEEKLYThank you for the likes, shares and follows. Really appreciate!
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This is a zoome out from the latest analysis of the ES1! Mini S&P500 Market.
A little bit adjusted with some interesting points to consider.
in the upper side we potentially won't be surprised in proach futrue see the price rising to $5637.5.
It is time probably to think at holding long short positions as there are some potential lower price point interesting to consider:
- The red horizontal line range area
- And lower there the blue dashed horizontal line
next week candle could probably do the same as this week but in the short side.
Where is the price going and what is the upper side limit? We don't know, we can only make some assumptions based on the technical analysis of the chart.
The issue is that we see that some historicl correlations are not being respected anymore.