S&P 500 E-Mini Futures
1/12 Trading Plan - Friday Recap📊 Market Sentiment: Neutral
Market sentiment for CME_MINI:ESH2024 is influenced by various factors, including geopolitical tensions, upcoming major elections, economic growth forecasts, market performance predictions, inflation and job market concerns, and oil price movements.
🌍 Global Financial and Economic News:
Geopolitical Tensions and Elections: Ongoing conflicts and upcoming major elections in countries like the US, India, EU, and UK are closely watched for their potential impact on global markets.
Economic Growth Forecasts: Morgan Stanley predicts a global growth slowdown, with Europe facing minimal growth due to energy supply shocks.
Market Performance and Predictions: Varied predictions for major indices like the S&P 500 and the FTSE 100 indicate a mixed market outlook.
Inflation and Job Market Concerns: The strong U.S. job market might sustain inflationary pressures, impacting Federal Reserve's rate decisions.
Oil Prices and Market Movements: Rising oil prices due to geopolitical risks and mixed performance in stock markets are key factors affecting market dynamics.
📉 Support Levels to Watch: Key support levels include 4808, 4802, 4787, among others. These levels will be critical in determining potential buying points in the market.
📈 Resistance Levels to Watch: Major resistance levels are identified at 4813, 4821, 4832-34. These levels represent potential barriers where selling pressure might increase.
📅 Trading Plan for Thursday:
Bull Case: The focus is on maintaining key support levels, particularly 4777 and 4802, to drive upward momentum and target levels like 4845 and 4860-68.
Bear Case: The bearish scenario hinges on the failure of support levels, with 4777 as a critical point. Breakdown trades should be approached with caution and skill.
Strategy: The plan emphasizes flexibility and responsiveness to market conditions, with an eye on consolidation patterns and potential breakout or breakdown scenarios. Key is to adapt to real-time market dynamics around support and resistance levels.
🛑 Disclaimer: This analysis is for educational purposes only and is not financial advice. Market conditions are dynamic and subject to rapid changes. Consultation with a professional financial advisor is recommended before making trading decisions.
Reacceleration of inflation presents a trouble for the FEDYesterday, the market became slightly spooked by the release of higher-than-expected inflation numbers in the United States. The immediate reaction of the SPX to the news was negative, with the index erasing its early gains; the same price action could be observed in the Nasdaq 100 and Dow Jones Industrial Average. Nevertheless, market indices recovered much of their losses by the close and have been trending sideways.
The reacceleration of inflation in the United States represents a hurdle for the FED in its quest to tame inflation (likely causing it not to cut interest rates at the next meeting at the end of January 2024 or in March 2024). In addition to that, it could shatter the investors’ expectations of premature rate cuts if no significant improvement is seen in the next print. In turn, that could negatively affect the stock market down the road.
In regard to technicals, the resistance at $4,800 continues to play a crucial role; if the price manages to break above it and close there (ideally for at least two consecutive days), it will be very positive. The resumption of growth in RSI, MACD, and Stochastic on the daily chart will also bolster a bullish case. However, the flattening of these indicators and a failure of the RSI to break above 70 points will be slightly concerning.
Illustration 1.01
Illustration 1.01 shows the 5-minute graph of the SPX. The yellow arrow indicates the moment when inflation numbers were released in the United States.
Technical analysis
Daily time frame = Neutral
Weekly time frame = Neutral
Please feel free to express your ideas and thoughts in the comment section.
DISCLAIMER: This analysis is not intended to encourage any buying or selling of any particular securities. Furthermore, it should not serve as a basis for taking any trade action by an individual investor or any other entity. Your own due diligence is highly advised before entering a trade.
S&P500: On the hunt for an all-time high 🏹The S&P is currently pushing back towards a new all-time high in small steps. In the yellow sub-structure of the superordinate wave (i) in turquoise, we see the index continuing to rise. If the top could then be formed in this movement, we expect a wave (ii) correction. On the other hand, a different count would prevail if the price slips below the support at 4548 points, which we consider 38% likely. At present, we still lack the momentum on the upside to make this alternative irrelevant.
SP500: rebound continuation?Hi Traders!
On the intraday chart the trend is bearish but at the same time, we cannot exclude the continuation of this rally on the intraday chart and resistance breakout will confirm this Pattern. That said, if we look at the 1H chart, it is possible for a harmonic structure to develop that should push the price around Target 1.
Trade with care.
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S&P500 Dead cat bounce?The S&P500 index (SPX) is unfolding today the 3rd green 1D candle in a row, having gained back the vast majority of losses sustained last week. The December 28 rejection took place just below the 4820 All Time High (ATH) and as the 1D MACD is printing a sequence similar to the July 27 2023 peak, we expect the price to make a bearish reversal before the week is over.
The minimum target on this correction for us is the 1D MA50 (blue trend-line), which currently is at 4580. Throughout this 14-month Channel Up though, the minimum decline % has been -8.06%. So if selling gets accelerated we don't rule out seeing a 1D MA200 (orange trend-line) test at 4450. In order to re-sell though this low, we need to get a candle closing below the 1D MA50 and then sell upon a bounce above the 1D MA50, similar to September 01 2023 and March 06 2023.
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S&P 500 Futures ($ES) Points of InterestIn this idea, I show points of interest for ES futures and SPY based on volume.
This week (12/31/2023 - 1/5/2024), the markets started to pullback from 2023 highs.
Note : This is not a trade idea. For educational purposes only. This is not financial advice.
Points of interest:
ESZ2023 price at expiration = 4694.25
Recent swing low Volume Profile Point of Control = 4606
Failure to hold 4606 could lead to further downside to 4556 (recent swing log Volume Profile Value Area Low).
Potential further downside to the Value Area High (4466) and Point of Control (4300.25) of the Volume Profile drawn from the October 2022 swing low.
Points of Interest for AMEX:SPY layered onto CME_MINI:ES1!
S&P500: Top officially formed. Eyes 4,500S&P500 has turned neutral on the 1D technica outlook (RSI = 47.788, MACD = 28.200, ADX = 43.854) as it made a LL for the first time since the October 27th 2023 bottom, marking the end of that two month rally. That was the latest bullish wave of the 15 month Channel Up.
According to the three prior peaks that formed HH on the Channel Up, the index should kickstart a pullback that should cross under the 1D MA50 and may extend as low as -9.00% even. The RSI Channel Down patterns among all those bearish waves look very much alike. Consequently we will stay bearish and set a less aggressive target over the 1D MA200 (TP = 4,500).
See how our prior idea has worked:
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SPX Cash AnalysisWe're now getting a confirming signal that last week's top was at least a local top. Primary analysis (in Blue) however, because we did not make a new high in the SPX like the DJIA and NDX, the black (B) wave count is a valid EWT count. I do not favor the black pathway mainly due to our MACD signal, the other major indices hitting new highs, and lastly the price action I have as of today.
Best to all,
Chris
S&P500 About to turn bearish for the next 2 weeks.S&P500 crossed and closed a (4h) candle today under the MA50 (4h) for the first time since December 7th.
Even though that was a buy opportunity then, this time we expect strong selling as the two month Channel Up is on a very strong RSI (4h) Bearish Divergence.
Trading Plan:
1. Sell once the price crosses under the Channel Up.
Targets:
1. 4560 (MA50 1d and Support 2).
Tips:
1. The RSI (4h) is also almost oversold besides showing this Bearish Divergence. Once it gets oversold and bounces, it can give an ideal sell entry near the MA50 (4h).
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Notes:
Past trading plan:
S&P500 Giant Cup and Handle and CORRECTION in play?The S&P500 index (SPX) almost hit the 4820 All Time High (ATH) level on the last trading session of 2023. That day completed the 9th straight green weekly (1W) candle, a feat last seen on the week of February 19 2019.
This doesn't necessarily indicate that any sort of correction is due as a bullish market can run rallies fueled on fundamental news for even longer period of times. But the fact that the ATH test completes a Cup pattern, could be alarming as, especially on overbought 1W RSI levels, Cup patterns tend to deliver one final pull-back in the form of a 'Handle' structure before making a new clear All Time High.
Technically, the 1W MA50 (blue trend-line) tends to be an intact Support during the year(s) of a Bull Market and so fart it was last hit in late October 2023. If 2024 is indeed a Bull Phase year, then the 1W MA50 should hold. If the Handle pulls back the current bullish trend, then the two could 'meet' at around 4500, which is marginally above the 0.236 Fibonacci retracement level. A stronger correction to the 0.382 level is highly unlikely unless pessimistic news (e.g. Fed, growth, inflation, unemployment) hit the market.
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Price Action shows a-wave advance topping, b and c-waves to comeThere is no doubt the rally off the October 2023 low has very little distinguishable structure to it. However the MACD indicator has made a new high so we DO NOT have negative divergence telling me, we will get a downward retracement, but this recent rally is not done to the upside. For this advance to top in a more sustainable fashion, we would be rallying on negative divergence. Therefore the blue pathway for price is the higher probability. Since the SPX has not made a new high, I am still carrying the black pathway on the chart as it valid below the ATH.
SPX should have every chartist out there conflicted...The SPX consolidation around the orange downtrend line is confusing every chartist out there for good reason. Why-because it is giving off conflicting signals and history really isn't much of a guide.
Typically when you draw a monthly downtrend line using 3-6 months of a trend line and then you have an monthly open or close ABOVE the downtrend line (orange line on my chart) you see continued follow thru. However Nov 2022 closed above the orange line but then December bearishly closed below it (no follow thru). Jan then closed bullishly above it and now Feb looks to be closing above it but have see-sawed around that downtrend line with rather large open/close monthly ranges. This tells me, at this point, neither the bulls nor the bears can claim victory.
The bulls see a "inverse H&S" on the monthly line chart however there's no break of the neckline thus far and therefore it's just a "what if" at this point.
The bears see one big bear flag on the monthly but again that too is just a "what if" at this point.
Here are past SPX charts using the same downtrend line analysis:
For me, I'm staying patient & neutral with most of my trading cash sitting in my IBKR account earning decent interest income until I can see a clear winner.
After studying the above you can see that "bull" breaks of the orange line typically last many months to many years BUT the bulls IMO have not proven themselves at this point so for me it's better to stay in cash; earning a decent risk free yield. It's worth noting-there are so many examples of bull breaks of the downtrend line with follow thru but only two examples (1975 & 2002) of breaks in the downtrend line WITHOUT immediate follow thru so you have to respect that we are in a conflicted market.
What I am watching:
VIX (my read of this chart is saying a spike above 30 is not in the cards for a bit-you can read my recent VIX posts as to why)
DXY (The ROC in how this thrusted downwards is telling me, in the very short term, the chart is rather weak and we are currently experiencing a countertrend to the downward trend than begun in Oct 2022)
2YR/10YR yields: The thrust from the breakouts of the downtrend & horizontal lines are not the same type of thrusts we saw previously so IMO slowing yield thrusts are telling me the bond market seems to think yields might be starting to "level out" before they possibly reverse course (to the downside) but only if we actually experience a recession.
I do believe that yields topping & coming down is actually bearish for the market near term so I am watching them very closely for a reversal sign to the downside. Why-because that means the economy, on it's own merit, is actually not too strong without stimulus, QE & ZIRP. I also think the topping process of yields will play out over weeks/months...it's not going to be a sharp pivot and this topping process could cause markets to chop for weeks/months...
S&P 500 : A new bull market or a large double top?S&P 500: SPX index could have a pullback as double-top forms.
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and are therefore are unqualified to give investment recommendations.
Always do your own research and consult with a licensed investment professional before investing.
This communication is never to be used as the basis of making investment decisions, and it is for entertainment purposes only.
BTC Expectations for the new year, one mfin ride. More below! BTC has shown bullish willingness. I anticipate the new year to visit the lows around 25K, and the quarterly FVG, I will be there to accumulate some. Market might decide not to even go there and just fill the inefficiency at 32K and decide to moon from there. I'd worry about BTC if we close below 19K and stay there for over a couple of days. I'm not a Crypto bull but I'm for sure a Fiat bear so it forces me to be a crypto bull to a certain extent. If the ETF goes through and it most likely will, I expect volatility but eventually the highs around 65K will get swept. I highly doubt they're safe and I want a piece of the cake. With a bearish TVC:DXY and a bearish outlook on the future of fiat in general, we might see crazy numbers on BTC. I will keep the idea updated as the market tips its hand. let's enjoy the ride.
S&P500 Is 4800 the end of the road after 9 green weeks?The S&P500 index (SPX) is currently on its 9th straight green week (1W candle) following the October 23 (weekly terms) bottom. That was a Higher Low on the 15-month Channel Up and based on that pattern, the index is approaching its top (Higher Highs trend-line).
What adds more weight to the very high levels it is trading at, is that the All Time High is just above the current price at 4820. A peak on that level would represent a +17.40% increase, exactly the % rise of the first Bullish Leg of the 15-month Channel Up that peaked on the week of November 28 2022 and then corrected by -8.06%.
With the 1W RSI almost overbought (70.00) as it was on July 24, which was the peak of the previous Higher High of the Channel Up that initiated a 3-month correction of almost -11% and the 1W MACD on a post Bullish Cross level similar to the highs of August 15 2022 and November 28 2022 that kickstarted corrections, the selling pressure has now considerably stronger parameters to start.
This means that, at least from a technical perspective, this is the strongest sell opportunity since late July. A minimum correction of -8.00% would deliver a test of the 1W MA50 (blue trend-line) and as such, our target is 4450 (slightly above it).
If however the bullish trend continues for a few more weeks and pursues the maximum % rally we have seen since 2021, which has been +20.95%, then we can see an extension at around 4950, in which case we will add an additional (2nd) sell and both our bearish targets will be restructured at 4580 (-8.00%).
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S&P500 Start selling. Top of Channel is near.S&P500 / US500 has almost completed a +17.30% rise, which is the prince range it grew by on the December 1st 2022 High.
That was the first High of the long term Channel Up pattern that started on the October 13th 2022 bottom.
The Channel Up still has a little more room to go upwards before reaching its top but since the price is already over the 0.786 Fibonacci level, we are already inside the long term Sell Zone.
Sell and target 4570, which is a possible contact point with the 1day MA50 and the 0.5 Channel Fibonacci.
Technically the decline can reach as low as the 0.5 horizontal Fibonacci at 4445.
Previous chart:
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Levels for MES this weekAfter last weeks incredible failed breakdown we blasted back to the upside in which case
I am sure took a lot of traders off guards. This week i will be looking for areas of supply
on pullbacks and continue to buy this trend to the upside. With most data being out of the way
lets look forward to the new year!!!!
🔥 S&P 500: Curve Analysis (6W) 🔥(Position Trade)
SLO2 @ 4615 📉
SLO1 @ 4200 📉
TP1 @ 3410
TP2 @ 2745
TP3 @ 2255
TP4 @ 1550
BLO1 @ 1440 ⏳
BLO2 @ 875 ⏳
ADDITIONAL INFO:
🔥 Using this new ATH gives us a new HTF Curve
✍️ I'm anticipating the probability of POC @ 3489 will change from Support to Resistance
📉 If this curve holds, then we should expect a MASSIVE MARKET CRASH down to the mean around 1440
Major Support (Proximal) @ 1707.80
Major Support (Distal) 1342.60
⚠️ Once PA reaches Demand this will be our signal that the Market as a whole is returning to a healthy state
🔑
ATH = ALL TIME HIGH
BLO = BUY LIMIT ORDER
HTF = HIGH TIME FRAME
PA = PRICE ACTION
SLO = SELL LIMIT ORDER
TP = TAKE PROFIT
Long-term time frames (1 week to 1 year):
— Shows the big picture, revealing major trends and economic factors.
— Less volatile, price movements are slower and smoother.
— Suitable for long-term trend trading and position trading.
— Requires less frequent monitoring but may offer fewer trading opportunities.
S&P500: Holding the 4H MA50. Still bullish.The S&P500 index is now on a healthy green 1D technical outlook (RSI = 65.835, MACD = 82.010, ADX = 81.214) following a much needed technical pullback yesterday that eased the previously overbought technical indicators. On the 4H timeframe, the index is still inside a two month Channel Up, which found support yesterday on the 4H MA50. As long as it holds, we will stay buyers until the end of the year, aiming at its top (TP = 4,850).
If the price crossed under the 4H MA50, we will short aiming at the 4H MA100. If that is crossed as well, we will target the 4H MA200, which is close to the bottom of the Channel Up. It has to be said that the RSI has been inside a Channel Down, meaning that at some point, this bearish divergence will start a correction.
See how our prior idea has worked:
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S&P500 The rally still has one more High to give at least.The S&P500 index (SPX) pulled-back yesterday on the strongest 1D red candle since October. A natural technical reaction after weeks of rise-only price action and an overbought 1D RSI that almost hit 83.00. The long-term pattern remains a Channel Up since the October 13 2022 market bottom and as long as the 1D MA50 (blue trend-line) is supporting, it is likely to see one final upward extension towards its top (Higher Highs trend-line).
The two major Higher High sequences (bullish legs) of this Channel have been around +20.50%, extending almost as high as the 2.0 Fibonacci level. As a result we are expecting a minimum of 4930, before any larger correction takes place, unless of course the index breaks above its Channel Up, in which case we will look for a new pattern.
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