Day Trade Market Condition jun 27, 2023Day Trade Market Condition jun 27, 2023
levels for NQ ES CL BTC
watch the table left side for trade, right side for trend
S&P 500 E-Mini Futures
TUE. 06/27 Markets Awaiting the PCE and FOMC - Day 2S&P 500 INDEX MODEL TRADING PLANS for TUE. 06/27
Our models indicate choppy trading with no directional momentum until PCE release later this week. Depending on the number, it may bring inflation and interest rates back onto the market radar, with downside pressure added on the markets, which could crescendo into the FOMC meeting next week.
In our trading plans for Fri. 06/16, we wrote: "The spectacular bull run of the last few weeks fueled by speculation around the Fed policies and, possibly, an epic short squeeze, could be consolidating in the week ahead". This has played out as anticipated with yesterday's consolidation. It appears gaining traction with Powell's comments about inflation and interest rates this morning.
The index slightly consolidated downwards from 4409.59 from the close on Thursday, 06/15 to the close of 4381.89 Thursday, 06/22. Our models indicate 4315-4325 as the next support level, which might be tested in the coming days.
Positional Trading Models: Our positional models went short on the break below 4350 on Friday, with a hard stop at 4406. For today, models indicate a profit take on a break above 4324. If the short is closed, models indicate going short again on a break below 4320, with a trailing stop of 12 points.
By definition, positional trading models may carry the positions overnight and over multiple days, and hence assume trading an instrument that trades beyond the regular session, with the trailing stops - if any - being active in the overnight session.
Aggressive/Intraday Models: Our aggressive, intraday models indicate the trading plans below for today.
Aggressive, Intraday Trading Plans:
For today, our aggressive intraday models indicate going long on a break above 4373, 4366, 4343, or 4324 with a 9-point trailing stop, and going short on a break below 4370, 4360, 4339, or 4321 with a 9-point trailing stop.
Models indicate explicit long exits on a break below 4370, and explicit short exits on a break above 4363. Models also indicate a break-even hard stop once a trade gets into a 4-point profit level. Models indicate taking these signals from 09:45am ET or later.
By definition the intraday models do not hold any positions overnight - the models exit any open position at the close of the last bar (3:59pm bar or 4:00pm bar, depending on your platform's bar timing convention).
To avoid getting whipsawed, use at least a 5-minute closing or a higher time frame (a 1-minute if you know what you are doing) - depending on your risk tolerance and trading style - to determine the signals.
(WHAT IS THE CREDIBILITY and the PERFORMANCE OF OUR MODEL TRADING PLANS over the LAST WEEK, LAST MONTH, LAST YEAR? Please check for yourself how our pre-published model trades have performed so far! Seeing is believing!)
NOTES - HOW TO INTERPRET/USE THESE TRADING PLANS:
(i) The trading levels identified are derived from our A.I. Powered Quant Models. Depending on the market conditions, these may or may not correspond to any specific indicator(s).
(ii) These trading plans may be used to trade in any instrument that tracks the S&P 500 Index (e.g., ETFs such as SPY, derivatives such as futures and options on futures, and SPX options), triggered by the price levels in the Index. The results of these indicated trades would vary widely depending on the timeframe you use (tick chart, 1 minute, or 5 minute, or 15 minute or 60 minute etc.), the quality of your broker's execution, any slippages, your trading commissions and many other factors.
(iii) These are NOT trading recommendations for any individual(s) and may or may not be suitable to your own financial objectives and risk tolerance - USE these ONLY as educational tools to inform and educate your own trading decisions, at your own risk.
#spx, #spx500, #spy, #sp500, #esmini, #indextrading, #daytrading, #models, #tradingplans, #outlook, #economy, #bear, #yields, #stocks, #futures, #inflation, #recession, #fomc, #fed, #fedspeak, #speech
S&P500: First buy conditions following the top are emerging.The S&P500 is close to a -2.89% pull back, same as the April 26th, with the 1D technicals turning neutral (RSI = 56.566, MACD = 43.450, ADX = 27.595) for the first time since June 1st. This is a standard technical pull back inside the March Channel Up that is aiming at the bottom of the Channel and the 1D MA50, which is untouched since May 4th.
We will use both 4,330 and 4,270 for a double buy entry, targeting the R1 (TP = 4,500). Pay attention also at how the 1D RSI is on the HL trendline since March, an additional buy signal.
Prior idea:
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Update on #SP500 The market violated the channel, which means the count is getting more nuanced in the near term, and I suspect that the advance can continue for longer. It is definitely not something I am going to engage in.
S&P 500, 6/27/23For Tuesday, 4430.75 can contain session strength, 4326.25 in reach and able to contain session weakness.
A settlement today below 4326.25 signals 4263.00-4273.25 by the end of next week or sooner, where the market can bottom out on a weekly basis - possibly through July activity.
Upside Tuesday, closing above 4430.75 signals a good low for the week, the 4519.75 formation then expected within 3-5 days, able to contain buying through next week and below which 4273.25 is attainable over the next several weeks.
Inversely, a daily settlement above 4519.75 will keep the longer-term objective at 4616.50 in reach over the next 1-2 weeks, where the market can top out through Q3 and a meaningful upside continuation point over the same timeframe.
Day Trade Market Condition jun 26, 2023Day Trade Market Condition jun 26, 2023
levels for NQ ES CL BTC
watch the table left side for trade, right side for trend
Dow Jones Industrial Average: To 36000 Epic Milestone and BeyondDow 36,000: A New Strategy to Profit from Coming Stock Market Growth is a book published on October 1, 1999 by columnist James C. Glassman and economist Kevin A. Hassett in which they argued that stocks were significantly undervalued in 1999 and came to the conclusion that the market will grow 4 times, and the Dow Jones Industrial Average TVC:DJI will rise to 36,000 by 2002 or 2004.
The most important fact about stocks at the dawn of the twenty-first century: they are cheap...
- Glassman and Hasset. 1999. "Introduction". Dow 36000
However, life has made its own adjustments, and the era of "irrational optimism" (as it always happens) - came to its inevitable end.
In January 2000, just about three months later the publication of the book, the Dow Jones Index reached a record high of 11,750.28 points, which subsequently remained unbeaten for the next 6 plus years.
In the early 2000s, the Index fell steadily after the dot-com technology bubble burst.
And after the well-known bang on the American Twin Towers happened on September 11, 2001, the Dow Jones index fell even more, reaching a minimum of 7286.27 points by October 2002.
Financial crisis of 2007-09 sent the Dow Jones to even lower levels, which ultimately freed the hands of Congress and the US Treasury to uncover the money bazooka through raising national debt limits.
In general, only after the second attempt to fix above DJIA 10-year moving average in the third quarter of 2011, the Dow was able to rise in a half of the predicted path (from about 10,000 to 36,000 points).
Just 18 years later to the publication, in October 2017, - Dow reached milestone of 23,000 points, and the final achievement of the desired mark of 36,000 points took place only in December 2021.
However, by that time just few people remembered this book and its authors, who were later called "charlatans". Given that over the 22-year period since the publication of the book, consumer spending in the US ( FRED:PCE ) has increased by more than 2.5 times overall; the prices of gasoline, oil, wheat, corn, and sugar have more than tripled, and the prices of metals such as copper and gold have risen 5 to 7 times.
Closer to today's reality, the Dow Jones Industrial Average continues to follow the main uptrend trajectory formed by the US recovery from the 2007-09 Housing crisis. Dow stays for nowadays above its 10-year simple moving average that supported the index both in the third quarter of 2011 and at the time of Covid- 19 market collapse in the first quarter of 2020. At the moment Dow is being above the marked moving average by about 36.45%.
Technical resistance is considered as a range of 34,000 - 34,500 points, that lost in the first quarter of 2022. Attempts to return above this strong level have been overshadowed for several months - either by a banking collapse, and later by aggravated talk about the crisis of the US national debt ceiling.
In such scenarios, coupled with inflation, which remains significantly above the target level of 2 percent, despite repeated attempts to curb it by the Federal Reserve , the 36,000th milestone can for quite a long time, for a decade or even a year and a half, become a growth constraint of the world economy for quite a long time - for a decade or even fifteen years.
Key facts about the Dow Jones Industrial Average:
👉 Technical chart provided by ETF AMEX:DIA - SPDR Dow Jones Industrial Average ETF, generally in line with the price and yield of the Dow Jones Industrial Average (100:1 ratio).
👉 Dow Jones Industrial Average ( DJ:DJI ) is made up of 30 price-weighted blue-chip components of US stocks.
👉 DJIA is the oldest barometer of the US stock market, the flag and the logo of capitalism, and the most widely quoted indicator of the activity of the US stock market and world economy.
ES1! Analysis Update into OPEX, FED, and EOYES1! 6WK: Update from April 14, 2023 Publish:
+8% shift of structure upwards and price rediscovery from March 2022 levels. A period of inside candles preceding May 8,2023 reflected support at sigma 2.
Risk on sentiment as evidenced by confluence of sigma 1 and 0.5 fibonacci level (4155.25) is now approaching 0.236 fibonacci level (4500). This is a high area of interest as PA reverts to mean because: it is where price acceptance has occurred (Oct 2020) and where price acceptance was rejected (Feb 2020)// Regression analysis with pearsons r of .9786//
Price at time of study 4483.25// Upcoming macro events and earnings guidance will be factored in alongside breadth and yield measures// Bias: Neutral to risk on
S&P 500, 6/26/234270.00 remains 3 - 5 week target able to contain selling on a monthly basis, once tested the market poised for pushing onto new highs over the following 3-5 weeks.
A daily settlement below 4263.25 signals 4187.75 within several weeks, and above which the 4808.25, January 2022 high is likely by the end of the year.
Upside, a daily settlement above 4514.25 signals 4609.25 within several weeks, able to contain buying on a quarterly basis and the area to settle above for then yielding the targeted 4808.25 within 3-5 more weeks.
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For Monday, 4475.75 can contain session strength, below which 4364.00 is likely within the day, able to contain session weakness.
A settlement today below 4364.00 signals 4263.25 - 4270.00 by the end of next week or sooner, where the market can bottom out on a weekly basis - possibly through July activity.
Upside Monday, closing above 4475.75 signals 4514.25 tomorrow, able to contain buying through next week and below which 4270.00 is attainable over the next several weeks.
Inversely, a daily settlement above 4514.25 will keep the longer-term objective at 4616.50 in reach over the next 1-2 weeks, where the market can top out through Q3 and a meaningful upside continuation point over the same timeframe.
Why This Selloff Has Legs $ES1!The market has finally shown some signs of weakness after Friday's close. In this video I explain why I will be selling rallies next week in CME_MINI:ES1! looking for further price action to the downside. I show you my process for determining support and resistance levels using Bollinger Bands and how to use my free (open source) indicator on TradingView, Beacon.
Nasdaq 4hour = as predict on high,Nasdaq go down ,now...above green arrow when you see buy pinbar on 1h,4h,daily chart ,dont fear pick buy SL=pinbar low ok?
If you have old sells,you must hedge them now ,Nasdaq upper target is 16000 even 21000(see weekly chart Fino 161%)
advice=70% looking for buy,,,be carefull on sell=dangerous
wish you win
Day Trade Market Condition jun 23, 2023Day Trade Market Condition jun 23, 2023
levels for NQ ES CL BTC
watch the table left side for trade, right side for trend
Notice the level nq 14917 / es 4373 might get volatile
Trading Plans for FRI. 06/23 - Bull Run Consolidation, ContinuedS&P 500 INDEX MODEL TRADING PLANS for FRI. 06/23
In our trading plans for Fri. 06/16, we wrote: "The spectacular bull run of the last few weeks fueled by speculation around the Fed policies and, possibly, an epic short squeeze, could be consolidating in the week ahead". This has played out as anticipated with yesterday's consolidation. It appears gaining traction with Powell's comments about inflation and interest rates this morning.
The index slightly consolidated downwards from 4409.59 from the close on Thursday, 06/15 to the close of 4381.89 yesterday, Thursday, 06/22. Our models indicate 4315-4325 as the next support level, which might be tested in the coming days.
The potential bull trap cautioned about by our models continues to be in play. Those bulls who must have noted our models' trading plans and took some money off the table would have saved themselves some heartache. Bears should be nimble with their shorts. It is a bull market until it is broken - currently, this bull run is not broken, yet.
Positional Trading Models: Our positional models indicate going short on a break below 4350, with a hard stop at 4406, effective from 11:00am EST today.
By definition, positional trading models may carry the positions overnight and over multiple days, and hence assume trading an instrument that trades beyond the regular session, with the trailing stops - if any - being active in the overnight session.
Aggressive/Intraday Models: Our aggressive, intraday models indicate the trading plans below for today.
Aggressive, Intraday Trading Plans:
For today, our aggressive intraday models indicate going long on a break above 4393, 4375, 4366, 4352, or 4341 with an 8-point trailing stop, and going short on a break below 4390, 4363, 4349, or 4338 with a 9-point trailing stop.
Models indicate explicit long exits on a break below 4373. Models also indicate a break-even hard stop once a trade gets into a 4-point profit level. Models indicate taking these signals from 11:01am ET or later.
By definition the intraday models do not hold any positions overnight - the models exit any open position at the close of the last bar (3:59pm bar or 4:00pm bar, depending on your platform's bar timing convention).
To avoid getting whipsawed, use at least a 5-minute closing or a higher time frame (a 1-minute if you know what you are doing) - depending on your risk tolerance and trading style - to determine the signals.
(WHAT IS THE CREDIBILITY and the PERFORMANCE OF OUR MODEL TRADING PLANS over the LAST WEEK, LAST MONTH, LAST YEAR? Please check for yourself how our pre-published model trades have performed so far! Seeing is believing!)
NOTES - HOW TO INTERPRET/USE THESE TRADING PLANS:
(i) The trading levels identified are derived from our A.I. Powered Quant Models. Depending on the market conditions, these may or may not correspond to any specific indicator(s).
(ii) These trading plans may be used to trade in any instrument that tracks the S&P 500 Index (e.g., ETFs such as SPY, derivatives such as futures and options on futures, and SPX options), triggered by the price levels in the Index. The results of these indicated trades would vary widely depending on the timeframe you use (tick chart, 1 minute, or 5 minute, or 15 minute or 60 minute etc.), the quality of your broker's execution, any slippages, your trading commissions and many other factors.
(iii) These are NOT trading recommendations for any individual(s) and may or may not be suitable to your own financial objectives and risk tolerance - USE these ONLY as educational tools to inform and educate your own trading decisions, at your own risk.
#spx, #spx500, #spy, #sp500, #esmini, #indextrading, #daytrading, #models, #tradingplans, #outlook, #economy, #bear, #yields, #stocks, #futures, #inflation, #recession, #fomc, #fed, #fedspeak, #softlanding, #hawkishpause, #pause
Stock market is going to crash as this candlestick pattern callsThere is a Bearish Harami reversal pattern in the making on the S&P 500 ETF weekly time frame. It looks perfect as a textbook sample.
Stop is above last week's top at $445
Target is just above the opening of the second candle of preceding growth at $392
S&P 500, 6/23/23For Friday, 4467.50 can contain session strength, below which the market remains the defensive into next week, possibly yielding 4257.50 over the next 2 - 3 weeks.
Downside Friday, 4416.00 can contain intraday weakness, while breaking/opening below 4416.00 allows 4357.75 intraday, where the market can place a daily low.
A settlement today below 4357.75 signals 4299.50 on Monday, 4257.50 by the end of next week, likely contain weekly selling pressures when tested, possibly into later July.
Upside Friday, pushing/opening above 4467.50 allows 4509.00 intraday, able to contain buying through next week and below which 4257.50 is attainable over the next several weeks.
Inversely, a daily settlement above 4509.00 will keep the longer-term objective at 4616.50 in reach over the next several weeks.
Day Trade Market Condition jun 22, 2023Day Trade Market Condition jun 22, 2023
levels for NQ ES CL BTC
watch the table left side for trade, right side for trend
Update on #SP500 #SPY #SPX #ES1!My alternative count I came up with a week ago is getting increasingly likely. I will No trading for me here so far. Watching developments and will discuss them in details in Weekly Update.
S&P 500, 6/22/23For Thursday, 4444.50 can contain session strength, below which 4352.50 is likely intraday, 4257.50 in reach by the end of next week, where the market can bottom out on a weekly basis, possibly into later July.
Upside Thursday, pushing/opening above 4444.50 signals 4462.50, while closing today above 4444.50 indicates 4503.50 within several days, able to contain buying through next week and the point to settle above for yielding the 4613.00 longer-term objective within several more weeks.
Day Trade Market Condition jun 21, 2023Day Trade Market Condition jun 21, 2023
levels for NQ ES CL BTC
watch the table left side for trade, right side for trend
S&P500 Buy opportunity approachingThe S&P500 crossed under the MA50 (4h) and is approaching the bottom of the 1 month Channel Up.
That would complete a -2.60% decline from the top, which is consistent with the pull backs of late April and May.
Trading Plan:
1. Buy at 4340.
Targets:
1. 4515 (Resistance 1).
Tips:
1. The RSI (4h) gives the most optimal buy entry when it crosses under the 30.00 oversold level. If that happens near the bottom of the Channel Up, it will be an additional reason to buy.
Please like, follow and comment!!
Notes:
Past trading plan:
Powell Trying to Tame the Runaway Bull?S&P 500 INDEX MODEL TRADING PLANS for WED. 06/21
In our trading plans for Fri. 06/16, we wrote: "The spectacular bull run of the last few weeks fueled by speculation around the Fed policies and, possibly, an epic short squeeze, could be consolidating in the week ahead". This has played out as anticipated with yesterday's consolidation. It appears gaining traction with Powell's comments about inflation and interest rates this morning.
The potential bull trap cautioned about by our models continues to be in play, while the markets seem to be calling the bluff of Powell's hawkish posturing in last Thursday's "hawkish pause" presser. Nevertheless, bears should be cautious of not jumping the gun but wait for confirmation before initiating any shorts. It is a bull market until it is broken - currently, this bull run is not broken.
Positional Trading Models: Our positional models indicate no positional trading plans for today, as they are wary of a potential bull trap ahead, while also cautious about continued short squeezes off of any fresh shorts drawn in by the prints higher in the "new bull market".
By definition, positional trading models may carry the positions overnight and over multiple days, and hence assume trading an instrument that trades beyond the regular session, with the trailing stops - if any - being active in the overnight session.
Aggressive/Intraday Models: Our aggressive, intraday models indicate the trading plans below for today.
Aggressive, Intraday Trading Plans:
For today, our aggressive intraday models indicate going long on a break above 4390, 4379, 4368, or 4357 with an 8-point trailing stop, and going short on a break below 4385, 4376, 4364, or 4354 with a 9-point trailing stop.
Models indicate no explicit exits for today. Models also indicate a break-even hard stop once a trade gets into a 4-point profit level. Models indicate taking these signals from 10:16am ET or later.
By definition the intraday models do not hold any positions overnight - the models exit any open position at the close of the last bar (3:59pm bar or 4:00pm bar, depending on your platform's bar timing convention).
To avoid getting whipsawed, use at least a 5-minute closing or a higher time frame (a 1-minute if you know what you are doing) - depending on your risk tolerance and trading style - to determine the signals.
(WHAT IS THE CREDIBILITY and the PERFORMANCE OF OUR MODEL TRADING PLANS over the LAST WEEK, LAST MONTH, LAST YEAR? Please check for yourself how our pre-published model trades have performed so far! Seeing is believing!)
NOTES - HOW TO INTERPRET/USE THESE TRADING PLANS:
(i) The trading levels identified are derived from our A.I. Powered Quant Models. Depending on the market conditions, these may or may not correspond to any specific indicator(s).
(ii) These trading plans may be used to trade in any instrument that tracks the S&P 500 Index (e.g., ETFs such as SPY, derivatives such as futures and options on futures, and SPX options), triggered by the price levels in the Index. The results of these indicated trades would vary widely depending on the timeframe you use (tick chart, 1 minute, or 5 minute, or 15 minute or 60 minute etc.), the quality of your broker's execution, any slippages, your trading commissions and many other factors.
(iii) These are NOT trading recommendations for any individual(s) and may or may not be suitable to your own financial objectives and risk tolerance - USE these ONLY as educational tools to inform and educate your own trading decisions, at your own risk.
#spx, #spx500, #spy, #sp500, #esmini, #indextrading, #daytrading, #models, #tradingplans, #outlook, #economy, #bear, #yields, #stocks, #futures, #inflation, #recession, #fomc, #fed, #fedspeak, #softlanding, #hawkishpause, #pause
Bulls and Bears zone for 06-21-2023Markets pulled back yesterday and ETH session seems to be trending down.
Any test of yesterday's Low could provide direction.
Level to watch 4413 --- 4411
S&P 500, 6/21/23The 4195.75 long-term support area can contain selling through the balance of the year, above which 4606.50 remains a 3 - 5 month objective, the 4808.25, January 2022 all-time high expected by the end of the year.
On the way up, 4606.50 can contain monthly buying pressures, with a settlement above 4606.50 indicating the targeted 4808.25 within 3 - 5 weeks, where the broader market can double-top on a monthly basis.
Downside, a weekly settlement below 4195.75 would be considered a significant failed long-term buy signal, in essence indicating 3898.25 within 2 - 3 months.
