S&P 500 E-Mini Futures
S&P500 Channel Up priced a bottom. Buy.S&P500 / US500 is trading inside a 20 day Channel Up.
The price hit today the 1hour MA200, while the 1hour RSI breached the oversold limit and rebounded.
The two times this happened before, it was a signal that the Channel Up has formed a bottom.
The bullish waves that followed, rose by at least +2.00%.
Buy and target 6200 as the new higher high of the Channel.
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ES Morning UpdateIt’s been three days of trading within the 6120-6154 range in ES. Yesterday, I was watching for a test of 6129 with a final target at 6154 and a bonus at 6168. 6129 held precisely, and the market rallied to 6167.
As of now:
• Let the runners work—avoid overtrading
• 6145 is acting as weak support, keeping 6154, 6167, and 6185 in play
• If 6145 fails, expect a dip toward 6133, then 6123
MES!/ES1! Day Trade Plan for 02/19/25MES!/ES1! Day Trade Plan for 02/19/25
📈6150-6155
📉6120-6115
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*These levels are derived from comprehensive backtesting and research and a quantitative system demonstrating high accuracy. This statistical foundation suggests that price movements are likely to exceed initial estimates.*
ES Morning Update/Chart Sent Out Yesterday6120 continues to be a money magnet in ES. Yesterday’s approach was simple: the 6116-20 zone had to hold to keep 6138 and 6154+ in play. It held perfectly, and we ran to 6157—so just hold your runners.
As of now:
• We’re in a complex flag between 6129 and 6154
• 6129 must hold and rebound by 38 points to unlock targets at 45 and 54+
• If 6129 fails, expect a dip toward 6116, then 6109
MES!/ES1! Day Trade Plan for 02/18/25MES!/ES1! Day Trade Plan for 02/18/25
📈6170
📉6135
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*These levels are derived from comprehensive backtesting and research and a quantitative system demonstrating high accuracy. This statistical foundation suggests that price movements are likely to exceed initial estimates.*
ES Morning Update Feb 18thPatience paid off for buyers. Friday morning, longs were triggered off 6120 support in ES, forming a solid flag from 6120 to 6147. The breakout target at 6154 was hit around 2am unfortunately, so now it’s time to protect gains and let the runners ride if you have them. No new entries unless we get some dips first.
As of now:
• Next targets are 6168 and 6185-88
• 6138 is holding as support
• If the price dips back to 6120, prepare to sell below that level
S&P500 Remarkable 16year Time Cycles call the Top and CorrectionThe S&P500 index (SPX) just made a new All Time High (ATH) and even though it hasn't picked up the pace since the initial very aggressive post-elections rally, it is entering a bullish phase.
In fact that is technically the last rally phase of the Bull Cycle that started at the bottom of the 2022 Inflation Crisis in October 2022. The reason behind this is the index' very reliable and consistent Time Cycle pattern that is repeated over and over again within the 16-year Channel Up that had been holding since the bottom of the 2009 Housing Crisis.
As you can see on this remarkable trading blue-print, ever since the index recovered the 1M MA50 (blue trend-line) and turned it into its long-term Support, strong Cycles of Growth (Bullish Leg) and correction (Bearish Leg) phases became the norm.
Using the 1M RSI specific overbought pattern, we can see that from those points onwards, the Bull Cycle usually took around 12 months before it topped (Higher High on the Channel Up) and then corrected.
This suggests that by September 2025 we may have a new peak and it would be a good idea to have sold stock investments by then. The first two 12-month rallies (2014, 2018) posted +22.10% increases while the third (2021) posted +27.80%.
As a result this gives us a potential range of 6800 - 7200 within which selling should occur, in preparation for the 2026 correction.
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S&P500: 1D MA100 in support going for a Cycle high.S&P500 just turned bullish on its 1D technical outlook (RSI = 58.850, MACD = 26.670, ADX = 18.407) a week after it tested the 1D MA100. Every time the 1D MA100 gets tested and holds a +15% rally starts that tests the HH trendline. Go long, TP = 6,650.
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ES Morning Update NYSE is closed and ES wrapped up early at 1pm. No change from Friday—just let those runners work. On Friday, as outlined in the plan, I was looking for a rally from 6120 to 6137-43, and we achieved that move.
As of now:
• 6120-6143 is forming a flag
• This setup paves the way for targets at 6154, 6168, and 6184 when ready
• A dip below 6120 signals a sell
Weekly Market Forecast Feb 17-21stThis is an outlook for the week of Feb 17-21st.
In this video, we will analyze the following FX markets:
ES \ S&P 500
NQ | NASDAQ 100
YM | Dow Jones 30
GC |Gold
SiI | Silver
PL | Platinum
HG | Copper
FOMC on Wednesday. The news could impact the direction of the USD Index, so be mindful of it. The markets had a relatively bullish week. Trumps reciprocal tariffs study announcement eased some of the tension in the markets also allowed equities to run higher.
The metals saw a bearish turn at the end of the week, but caution should be taken if considering shorting these markets. The overall bullish trend is still in tact.
Enjoy!
May profits be upon you.
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Disclaimer:
I do not provide personal investment advice and I am not a qualified licensed investment advisor.
All information found here, including any ideas, opinions, views, predictions, forecasts, commentaries, suggestions, expressed or implied herein, are for informational, entertainment or educational purposes only and should not be construed as personal investment advice. While the information provided is believed to be accurate, it may include errors or inaccuracies.
I will not and cannot be held liable for any actions you take as a result of anything you read here.
Conduct your own due diligence, or consult a licensed financial advisor or broker before making any and all investment decisions. Any investments, trades, speculations, or decisions made on the basis of any information found on this channel, expressed or implied herein, are committed at your own risk, financial or otherwise.
MES!/ES1! Day Trade Plan for 02/13/25MES!/ES1! Day Trade Plan for 02/13/25
📈6100-6120
📉6060-6040
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(💎: IF THERE IS NOT MUCH VOLATILITY; FOCUS ON ZONES VERSES INDIVIDUAL PRICE LEVELS)
*These levels are derived from comprehensive backtesting and research, demonstrating over 90% accuracy. This statistical foundation suggests that price movements are likely to exceed initial estimates.*
ES Morning Update Feb 14thYesterday morning, a reclaim of 6066-70 zone in ES kicked off an easy long trigger, with 6125 set as the final target and 6139 as a bonus. We managed to tag 6139 overnight before the market pulled back to 6125.
As of now:
• Let the runners keep working, as thats all i do on Fridays mainly.
• 6120-23 is acting as support (it held, but it’s showing some weakness).
• Holding above this level keeps 6133, 6137, and 6154 in play.
• If 6120 fails, expect a dip to 6113, then 6098.
Inflation Fears Weigh More than China Tech GainsDeepSeek Is Not the Market’s Biggest Concern
Over the past few days following the emergence of DeepSeek, Nasdaq or technology stocks have experienced a notable 6% decline across all major U.S. indices. However, this recent pullback pales in comparison to the more substantial drop seen in December.
Small-Cap Stocks Take a Bigger Hit
The Russell 2000, which tracks small and medium-sized enterprises in the U.S., suffered an even sharper decline, falling by 12%. This suggests that broader economic concerns, beyond just the tech sector, are weighing on investor sentiment.
Then, What Is It?
On December 18, during the highly anticipated Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting, the Federal Reserve announced a widely expected 0.25% rate cut, bringing the Fed Funds Rate down to 4.5%. However, it wasn’t the rate cut that rattled the market—it was Fed Chair Jerome Powell’s comments that followed.
“… the median participant projected that the appropriate level of the federal funds rate would be 3.9% at the end of 2025, indicating expectations of two additional rate cuts in 2025, down from the four projected in the previous summary.”
This statement signaled that the Fed remains hawkish on inflation, with expectations of only two rate cuts in 2025 instead of the previously projected four. As a result, borrowing costs are likely to remain elevated at around 3.9%, a scenario that investors had not fully priced in. The market reacted negatively, with indices falling sharply over the subsequent weeks.
Market Stabilization Amid China Tech Competition
Despite the recent downturn, there are signs of stabilization, with major indices still maintaining their position along an established uptrend line. As long as inflation continues to ease—hovering around 3% or, ideally, heading toward the Fed’s 2% target—the broader market outlook remains positive.
From a strategic standpoint, I will continue to focus on buying dips if the market respects the uptrend line. However, if hopes for rate cuts in 2025 fade and the trend begins to break below key support levels, my strategy will shift toward selling into strength when opportunities arise.
Short-Term Trading Outlook
To refine my trading decisions, I have also drawn trendlines on an hourly chart. Applying the same uptrend principles, these lines serve as a guideline for short-term trading in the Micro S&P 500 futures.
With the latest January Consumer Price Index (CPI) reading at 3%—higher than expected—I will be closely monitoring my daily chart's uptrend line.
While external economic conditions remain unpredictable, adapting trading strategies in response to market trends is key to staying ahead.
Please see the following disclaimer and information that you may find useful:
E-mini S&P 500 Futures & Options
Ticker: ES
Minimum fluctuation:
0.25 index points = $12.50
Micro E-mini S&P 500 Futures & Options
Ticker: MES
Minimum fluctuation:
0.25 index points = $1.25
Disclaimer:
• What presented here is not a recommendation, please consult your licensed broker.
• My mission is to create lateral thinking skills for every investor and trader, knowing when to take a calculated risk with market uncertainty and a bolder risk when opportunity arises.
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Trading the Micro: www.cmegroup.com
CME Real-time Market Data help identify trading set-ups in real-time and express my market views. If you have futures in your trading portfolio, you can check out on CME Group data plans available that suit your trading needs www.tradingview.com
ES Morning Update6020 has been the pivotal level in ES. It needed to hold after CPI yesterday to set up a rally toward 6070. It held perfectly, pushed through the 6066-70 zone, and later hit a bonus target at 6087 overnight. The range between 6020 and 6125 has become choppy, with 6070 acting as the key magnet.
As of now:
• Bulls want to hold 6058/recover 6070.
• Keeps 6087, 6104, 6125 live.
• 6020 fails, sell.
Prepere yourself for buying opportunities ... So there we are ... CPI little bit higher than exceptating , powel clearly talks about monetary policy and Trump goin wild with tarrifs ... what to except in this macro&political economic driven environment ? I don't think it will grow to extreme values now. Rather, there will be some more carving and from a short-term perspective an opportunity to buy at a good price ... Well, it is very important, at least for me in this environment of a trade war combined with a period when historically the Fed has raised rates and not lowered them as many expect. It is important to take profits and hold losses short and uncompromisingly exit losing positions. The year 2025 will be full of opportunities, which goes hand in hand with pain. What is heaven for one guy is hell for another guy. I am a fan of everyone who tries to make money in this environment and I hope to rob you of your money. Because that is what the market is about. Good luck and enjoy your game