S&P500 1D MA200 hit after 16 months!The S&P500 index (SPX) has been trading within a multi-year Channel Up since the October 12 2022 market bottom and hit yesterday its 1D MA200 (orange trend-line) for the first time in 16 months (since November 01 2023).
This is naturally an excellent technical buy entry for the long-term on this structure but is also a Higher Low for the Channel Up. At the same time, the 1D RSI has almost reached its oversold barrier (30.00), which during those 2.5 years has offered the 5 most optimal buy signals.
Given that each rally after such Higher Low has been -4% weaker than the previous, we can expect the one that is about to begin to be +20% (-4% less than the previous one of +24%). As a result, our new long-term Target is 6900.
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S&P 500 E-Mini Futures
S&P500 Index Goes 'Draconian', ahead of Roller Coaster ExplosionThe S&P 500's "roller coaster" behavior stems from its sensitivity to various economic, geopolitical, and market-specific factors that influence investor sentiment and corporate performance.
Economic Factors: Changes in interest rates, inflation, and Federal Reserve policies significantly impact the index. For example, rising interest rates can reduce corporate earnings and valuations, leading to market sell-offs. Conversely, expectations of rate cuts can boost optimism and drive rallies.
Investor Sentiment and Volatility: The S&P 500 is closely tied to the CBOE Volatility Index (VIX), often called the "fear gauge." The VIX rises during market downturns as investors seek portfolio protection, amplifying price swings. This inverse correlation highlights how fear or optimism can drive sharp movements in the index.
Global Events: Geopolitical tensions, natural disasters, or pandemics can disrupt markets by creating uncertainty about future economic performance. Such events often lead to sudden spikes or drops in the S&P 500 as investors react to perceived risks.
Valuation Cycles: Overvaluation or bubbles in specific sectors can lead to corrections. For instance, high price-to-earnings ratios combined with slower economic growth can result in prolonged periods of stagnation or volatility.
These factors collectively create the "roller coaster" effect begun in the S&P 500.
// Life is like a roller coaster, as you don't know what's going to be thrown at you next, so all you can do is give us your best shot.
--
Best wishes,
@PandorraResearch Team 😎
MES!/ES1! Day Trade Plan for 03/04/2025MES!/ES1! Day Trade Plan for 03/04/2025
📈5840 5858 5875
📉5800 5780 5760
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*These levels are derived from comprehensive backtesting and research and a quantitative system demonstrating high accuracy. This statistical foundation suggests that price movements are likely to exceed initial estimates.*
ES Morning Update March 4thYesterday, the breakdown short idea I mentioned at 5938-42 triggered a 100-point sell-off in ES. Coming into today, as noted in the plan yesterday evening, losing 5850 would set up a sharp short trigger—and we just got it, dropping 25 points so far.
As of now:
• 5814, 5798 are next downside targets if selling continues
• To reverse and rally, 5857 must reclaim
ES Morning Update March 3rdLast Friday around 1 PM, a Failed Breakdown near 5860 was triggered after multiple tests of support. Once reclaimed, it set up a strong long, and holding over the weekend paid off—now +130 points from that entry.
As of now:
• At resistance, so nothing to do but hold and wait
• 5977, 5938-40 = key supports
• If momentum continues, next upside targets are 6004, 6015-20, and 6042
Weekly Market Forecast Mar 3-7: Stock Indices, Gold, Oil, moreThis is a FUTURES market outlook for the week of Mar 3-7th.
In this video, we will analyze the following futures markets:
ES | S&P 500
NQ | NASDAQ 100
YM | Dow Jones 30
GC | Gold
SIL | Silver
PL | Platinum
HG | Copper
The indices took a bearish turn at the end of last week. Trump announcements, tariffs, Ukraine and Russia injected uncertainty into the markets, and investors moved money into safe havens.
Patience is required to trade in this environment. Wait until there are clear signs of shifts in the market before deciding on a bias. Setup confirmations are always the best course of action.
Enjoy!
May profits be upon you.
Leave any questions or comments in the comment section.
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Thank you so much!
Disclaimer:
I do not provide personal investment advice and I am not a qualified licensed investment advisor.
All information found here, including any ideas, opinions, views, predictions, forecasts, commentaries, suggestions, expressed or implied herein, are for informational, entertainment or educational purposes only and should not be construed as personal investment advice. While the information provided is believed to be accurate, it may include errors or inaccuracies.
I will not and cannot be held liable for any actions you take as a result of anything you read here.
Conduct your own due diligence, or consult a licensed financial advisor or broker before making any and all investment decisions. Any investments, trades, speculations, or decisions made on the basis of any information found on this channel, expressed or implied herein, are committed at your own risk, financial or otherwise.
MES!/ES1! Day Trade Plan for 02/28/2025MES!/ES1! Day Trade Plan for 02/28/2025
📈5915
📉5860
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*These levels are derived from comprehensive backtesting and research and a quantitative system demonstrating high accuracy. This statistical foundation suggests that price movements are likely to exceed initial estimates.*
ES Morning Update Feb 28thYesterday marked the sixth consecutive red day in ES—the first time since April 2024. After breaking down from a two-day base yesterday around 2pm, 5875 was the sell target, and it hit exactly at close before forming a base overnight.
As of now:
• 5875-80 is support but weakening
• Holding above keeps 5913 and 5939 in play
• If the overnight low fails, expect a dip toward 5850 area, then 5835-32
Getting CloserLately the market has been confusing. It appears traders are not clear minded on the economy, the recently voted in administration's policies, and that uncertainty is definitely showing up in the price action.
Be that as it may be, this is an update on the SPX cash index I posted last week as more of the price action fills in. I'll try to update this weekly.
Best to all,
Chris
S&P500: Days of DecisionHovering near the 6,000 points mark, the S&P 500 enters the second half of the week at a critical juncture. The next few trading sessions will determine whether the index will push directly to new record highs or first undergo a more extended correction. In our primary scenario, the S&P should continue selling off to settle the turquoise wave 2’s low within the corresponding long Target Zone between 5,667 and 5,389 points. Only from there should the next turquoise impulse wave 3 take over, driving the index to new all-time highs beyond the resistance at 6,365 points. If the S&P immediately resumes its upward trajectory, it might break past 6,365 points without delay. In this 38% likely alternative scenario, the index would bypass the turquoise Target Zone and significantly extend the green impulse wave alt. . Primarily, we consider the green wave as already complete.
MES!/ES1! Day Trade Plan for 02/27/2025MES!/ES1! Day Trade Plan for 02/27/2025
📈6016
📉5976
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*These levels are derived from comprehensive backtesting and research and a quantitative system demonstrating high accuracy. This statistical foundation suggests that price movements are likely to exceed initial estimates.*
MES!/ES1! Day Trade Plan for 02/26/2025MES!/ES1! Day Trade Plan for 02/26/2025
📈6035
📉5955
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*These levels are derived from comprehensive backtesting and research and a quantitative system demonstrating high accuracy. This statistical foundation suggests that price movements are likely to exceed initial estimates.*
ES Morning Update Feb 27thES has remained in the same 6020-5930 range all week, with triggers continuing to play out well. Yesterday, I noted that 5958-62 had to hold and reclaim 5988 to spark a rally. We hit 5958-62 exactly at 8 PM, reclaimed 5988, and rallied +25 points.
As of now:
• Hold runners, as things are getting more complex
• 5996, 5988-86 must hold to keep 6020 and 6042 in play
• A break below 5986 triggers selling
ES Morning Update Feb 26thDespite all the volatility yesterday, ES is right back where it started. After holding ~5933 support, the target was 5996, a major resistance shelf. As expected, it’s taking time to break through and has held all night.
As of now:
• Hold the runner
• Staying above 5988 keeps 6004, 6015, and 6020+ in play
• If 5988 fails, expect a dip toward 5962-58
ES Morning Update Feb 25thYesterday, all attention was on the 5993 area in ES. I expected a rally back up to 6043 off that level, and we saw it hold in the morning before pushing back to 6043. Later into the close, the market retested 5993 area again, sparking a 20-point rally. Overnight, a strong flush occurred, but the level was reclaimed, printing a textbook failed breakdown—5993 is now pretty used up in my opinion.
As of now:
• 6016-20, 6037 are the next targets
• 5996-93 (weak) and 5980 are serving as supports
• If these supports fail, expect a leg down below
S&P500 Channel Up bottomed. Huge reversal expected.The S&P500 index (SPX) had been trading within a Channel Up pattern since the August 2024 Low and yesterday broke below its 4H MA200 (orange trend-line) for the first time in 20 days. Since January 17, every such break below the 4H MA200 has been a technical buy opportunity.
This time it is even stronger as the index appears to be replicating the Channel's first price structure and more specifically Leg (d). What followed after Leg (d) bottomed, was a symmetrical with (b)-(c) +7.05% rise to form a top at (e).
The confirmation for this rise came when the 4H MACD formed a Bullish Cross. As a result, we are waiting for this confirmation to continue with additional buying on S&P and target 6330, which would be a +6.22% rise, symmetrical with (b)-(c).
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S&P500: Bottom is close to the 1D MA100. Be ready to buy this.S&P500 just turned bearish on its 1D technical outlook (RSI = 43.037, MACD = 10.020, ADX = 22.686) as it reversed the early gains and is currently on Friday's low levels, getting closer to the 1D MA100. That is the strongest support level in the last 40 days and according to the 1H RSI, the index may be close to a bottom. The 1H Death Cross typically prices the low on this pattern and we expect a reversal starting tomorrow. Go long and target the LH trendline (TP = 6,120).
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MES!/ES1! Day Trade Plan for 02/24/2025MES!/ES1! Day Trade Plan for 02/24/2025
📈6075, 6095
📉6035, 6015
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*These levels are derived from comprehensive backtesting and research and a quantitative system demonstrating high accuracy. This statistical foundation suggests that price movements are likely to exceed initial estimates.*