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S&P 500 E-Mini Futures

Alphabet & Tesla push All The Bigtech into Bearish MarchIndexes end lower as investors brace for major earnings results After the closing bell, Tesla and Alphabet released their second-quarter performance. Investors were especially attentive to the carmaker, looking to see if its performance has improved since the start of the year. Tesla was battered by a slew of headwinds in the first quarter, but investors have since grown bullish on the flagship EV manufacturer. The two firms are the first of the Magnificent Seven tech stocks to release their earnings. Unfortunately they both did not deliver strength, so it breaks the momentum to the tech rally. Tesla shares fall nearly 9% in premarket trading after earnings miss Tesla shares dropped in premarket trading in the U.S. after the electric car maker reported second-quarter earnings that missed expectations, as its auto business continued to face pressure. Elon Musk’s electric vehicle company reported that automotive revenue declined 7% year on year in the June quarter to $19.9 billion, while its adjusted earnings margin also fell. Bulls and bears have been in a grapple over the stock, with some believing the company’s core car business is under pressure, while others held hope about a future Musk has promised around autonomous driving. Alphabet (GOOG, GOOGL) shares fall nearly 4.5% in premarket trading after earnings report Alphabet earnings top estimates as cloud business gains steam, AI losses grow. Google parent Alphabet reported its fiscal second quarter earnings after the bell on Tuesday, beating analysts' estimates on the top and bottom lines as its cloud businesses continue to pick up steam, topping the $1 billion mark for operating profit for the first time. For the quarter, the company saw earnings per share of $1.89 on revenue of $84.7 billion. Analysts were anticipating earnings per share of $1.85 on revenue of $84.3 billion, according to data compiled by Bloomberg. That's a jump from the same period last year of 31% and 14%, respectively, when the company reported earnings per share of $1.44 on revenue of $74.6 billion. Advertising revenue topped $64.6 billion versus analysts' expectations of $64.5 billion, and up from $58.1 billion last year. YouTube ad revenue, however, fell short, with the segment bringing in $8.66 billion versus expectations of $8.95 billion. Technical thoughts What is next? Hmm.. I think more Bulls & Bears are to run. The main graph Nasdaq-100 Sept'24 Futures contract (NQU2024) indicates on strong Bearish Momentum. This is all because of 50-Day SMA breakthrough, as well as breakthrough of major 3Mo old upside channel.
CME_MINI:NQU2024
by Pandorra
4
Weekly Update: At the very least...ITS TIME TO RAISE CASH !!!!Since I last updated you on the overall markets, price has retreated lower. (Click Here for the last Market Update) The Nasdaq futures contract (NQ) has declined a total of 10.76% whereas the SP500 futures contract (ES) has only declined 5.05% from their respective all-time highs earlier in July. Does the Divergence between the weakness of the NQ, and relative strength of the ES, tell us anything? As I take in volumes of information to access the current pattern I find myself overwhelmed with the musings of more experienced market participants. A reasonable explanation would be the Nasdaq outperformed on the way up and is now underperforming on the way down. A sign possibly it got ahead of itself? Sure. However, in my experience, the answer is more nuanced to advancing and declining markets than simply the Nasdaq outperformed earlier and is now underperforming. I find Bob Farrell’s “Market Rules to Remember” always a good list to consult in the most interesting of market times. In his top 10 list of market rules, I find the market somewhere between rule #2 and rule#4 rather germane to the current price action. Rule #2 states : “Excesses in one direction will lead to an opposite excess in the other direction.” Whereas Rule #4 states : “Exponential rapidly rising or falling markets usually go further than you think, but they do not correct by going sideways.” Have we achieved the one directional excess that will lead to excesses in the opposite direction yet? Does this rapidly rising market have further to go? These are questions that are impossible to answer right now as the current price action in the NQ and ES tends to favor both rules. To further explain with respect to Rule#2…as long as we remain above the April lows in both the NQ and the ES, we retain the ability to continue to subdivide higher . Right now, those April lows seem like worlds away from the current consciousness of traders. However, from an Elliottitions’ perspective, the upside pattern is not damaged in the least, as long as we remain above those April lows. But to say the advancing price action has not been damaged in the least is somewhat an oversimplification of the technical structure of the recent price action as notated in RN Elliott’s original theories. Elliott Wave Theory simply put states that a trend will persist in 5 distinct waves, and counter trend price action will retrace the trend but only in 3 distinct waves. This forms the basis of trends, or (Motive Waves) and counter trends, or (Corrective Waves). The exception to this primary tenant of EWT is, wait for it …… (A diagonal Pattern) . Anyone can use the Google Machine for a definition of what a diagonal is within the construct of Elliott Wave Theory. However, I will add that the sentiment of market participants usually is that of tepid confidence. Traders not entirely sure of their actions....FOMO. Nonetheless, using this basic premise, this is how I interpret the current market price action. Disclaimer: I am not a fortune teller. I do not levitate off the ground, nor do I smoke a pipe like a wizard. Elliott Wave Theory is a construct to provide simply a higher probability forecast of future price action...NOT A GUARANTEE. Many times, with more price action and the benefit of hindsight, patterns can be interpreted as something other than what was originally perceived. The current price action in the NQ can persist to new all-time highs right now. However, to do so, would ONLY be accomplished as an Ending Diagonal for wave 5 of larger V of even larger wave (III). This sort of price action, if it subdivides to it’s ultimate conclusion, would eventually result in a market crash of sorts. Ending Diagonal patterns ideally return to their point of origination in relatively short order. The origination point of this potential pattern is the April lows. That would be considered a pretty hefty decline if that were to play out and certainly scare those who remain permanently bullish by virtue of a lack of imagination. The ES, although not nearly as precarious as the NQ pattern is, would undoubtedly follow suit to a large extent. Therefore, I will conclude by humbly offering some unsolicited advice. The professionals, the market media and your day trader buddy…all will chime in when it’s time to buy. Its crickets…when it’s time to sell. You, nor I, have ever turned on CNBC to hear…”Folks it’s time to sell stocks”. In my last update on the markets, I ended with this statement... these decisions are only yours alone to make. I will not tell you to sell now. However, I’ll tell you this. It is time to raise some cash. Could the market make new highs? Sure. But have you honestly done a risk/reward scenario for these potential incremental new highs? Take that suggestion for what it may be worth. Best to all, Chris
SP:SPX
by maikisch
S&P500 Huge rebound on former 2year ChannelUp! New Highs coming!The S&P500 index (SPX) reached and held last week the top (Higher Highs trend-line) of the former 2-year Channel Up pattern that was the vessel of market recovery from the 2022 inflation crisis. The results of holding this line have been immediate as this week is so far deep into green and is about to recover all losses sustained from the previous 1W candle. At the same time it is a Higher Low on the (dashed) 9-month Channel Up. Those two developments open the way for a new mega-bullish pattern that has the Support of its former one. As long as the 1D MA100 (red trend-line) remains intact, we still look towards a new Higher High, targeting 6200, which may be a modest Target since it is quite below the +28.56% mark, which is the rise that the previous Bullish Leg had. So far all major long-term rallies since the October 2022 bottom have been around +30%. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- ** Please LIKE 👍, FOLLOW ✅, SHARE 🙌 and COMMENT ✍ if you enjoy this idea! Also share your ideas and charts in the comments section below! This is best way to keep it relevant, support us, keep the content here free and allow the idea to reach as many people as possible. ** ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 💸💸💸💸💸💸 👇 👇 👇 👇 👇 👇
CAPITALCOM:US500Long
by TradingShot
2
Es Levels & targets July 29thExcellent follow through for buyers after fridays close. On Friday, one of my targets were 5528. We got there, then dipped. Right before the close, we got a failed breakdown of 5498 level which shot us right back up to 5528. Been basing up here since. As of now: Hold runners if you have them. 5519, 5502 are supports. Staying above keeps 5536, 5542, 5550-55 in play. 5502 fails, sellers retest 5483 area. Sellers are still in short-term control, and will stay this way until 5550-55 reclaims. Until then, all longs shall be treated with small size and high caution. Be very aggressive with profit takes level to level in this scenario when longing.
CME_MINI:ES1!
by ESMorg
S&P500 Bottom of the 8-month Channel. Strong buy signal.The S&P50 index (SPX) broke on Wednesday below its 1D MA50 (blue trend-line) for the first time since May 06 and yesterday touched the bottom of the 8-month Channel Up pattern that started after the October 27 2024 market Low. Technically we are on the most optimal buy level on the medium-term and this is possibly the reason that the day has started on a bullish note. The 1D RSI is at the same time at 40.00 for the first time in 3 months, so slightly into the long-term Buy Zone. As long as the 1D MA100 (green trend-line) holds, we will be bullish, targeting 6200 (below a the +28.56% mark, which was the % rise of the previous Bullish Leg). If the price breaks below the 1D MA100, we will short up to the 1D MA200 (orange trend-line) where we will buy again heavily for the long-term (same Target). ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- ** Please LIKE 👍, FOLLOW ✅, SHARE 🙌 and COMMENT ✍ if you enjoy this idea! Also share your ideas and charts in the comments section below! This is best way to keep it relevant, support us, keep the content here free and allow the idea to reach as many people as possible. ** ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 💸💸💸💸💸💸 👇 👇 👇 👇 👇 👇
CAPITALCOM:US500Long
by TradingShot
2
ES Levels & Targets for July 22ndPlan for Monday: supports are 5542-44 (major), 5535, 5528 (major), 5519, 5511, 5498-5500 (major), 5491 (major), 5484, 5474 (major), 5467, 5457 (major) It should go without saying, as I have emphasized since Wednesday: Bears are still in control until we see a significant reclaim of key breakdown points from last week. Hopefully, last week served as a valuable lesson in trading downtrends, as these skills have likely dulled over recent months. When bears are in control, all long positions will struggle, regardless of their apparent strength, and follow-through will be weak. Attempting to catch sustained bottoms is as useless as trying to pick sustained tops during an uptrend. While there are opportunities for gains on the long side, they won't last or lead to a squeeze until ES recovers some major resistance levels. For Monday, these will be 5568, and 5604 (the big one now). In terms of supports, 5542-44 is first down, and we already tested it and defended once Friday, making it weaker for Monday. I won’t be buying this again personally. If we flush it and reclaim though, it may present an option to add since this lvl hasnt trapped shorts yet. Below there, we sell again to 5528. I’d be interested in trying a small size long here. Could it fail? Of course, but that is just the cost of business when trying to long in downtrends. If that goes, I am not interested in longing again until 5498-5500, and a failed breakdown of the July second low at 5502 would be quite attractive. Resistances are 5552, 5560, 5568-66 (major), 5575, 5581-85 (major), 5588, 5598, 5604 (major), 5611, 5617 (major), 5621, 5632-34 (major). If buyers reclaim 5568-66 on Monday, we will probably squeeze. 5604 may have another dip left in it if we get there (though this is already very well tested), and the 5630-32 area also is likely to produce a dip on the backtest. Buyers case: sellers control for now obviously and there is no “buyers case” until they do something to tell me otherwise. There are many overhead resistances that must reclaim now to build back a legitimate buyers case (5568, 5604, then 5630), with 5568 being first up. There may be a long available above this. But you will have to read the action in real time. As always, one does not want to rush into it especially if we dip substantially first (like crash to 5528 early on Monday). You want to see some acceptance first, then perhaps 5569 would represent a long. If buyers are very motivated, this would send us back to 5604, dip there, then run back to 5630 which is a huge resistance. Level to level profit takes though as always. Do not bank on any long working for more than a level. Sellers case: The bear case is the default case. For Monday, this resumes on the failure of 5542. Check my July 19th plan on these type of trade setups. 5542 has been tested once already, so shorting below is slightly derisked now, but ideally I’d want to see one more test/failed breakdown, then 5540 would trigger us down. Will have to read the volume in real time. 5528 fail is also a possible attractive short, but I’d definitely need a bounce here first/failed breakdown, then short a little below. Generally, after three days of "short the pop," sellers still have control. This trend will inevitably conclude like every dip does, with a violent short squeeze. For that to happen though, buyers need to reclaim some major resistance levels. My outlook for Monday is that if buyers can defend 5542 (and if we do dip, it should be a quick flush to 5528 then recover), we can attempt another relief pop to 5585, 5604+. If 5528 fails, we are likely heading sub 5500.
CME_MINI:ES1!
by ESMorg
Keep It Serious Simple (S&P and Nasdaq Correction Levels)A quick video to summarize the hours and hours of live sessions I run each and every week. Everybody is scared and nervous when the market is falling because bull market geniuses love to see ATH's every single day :) I see simple wave structure on S&P and Nasdaq. 5th wave completion and a likely ABC or 123 correction. S&P 7-12% correction area, Nasdaq 10-15% correction area. I'm not bearish, but I am hedged for downside pressure. If it never materializes, cool. But if it does, I would like to make some money and mitigate the risk. I'll do more of these day to day or week to week. You can find me in the trenches Monday-Friday. Happy Trading and Lots of Profits!!!
SP:SPX
by ChrisPulver
$ES top in?We got a large reversal today which makes me think that top is in for this cycle. As you can see from the chart, price went over resistance and closed back below it which is extremely bearish. From here, I think we'll see a move down to the first support at $4800, then I think it's likely that we bounce higher to make people think we're going to see another move higher, but instead of having a sustained trend, we'll roll over down to new lows. My base case is that we'll see the lowest supports at $2750-2900 before we see any sustainable bull market trend form. Let's see how it plays out.
CME_MINI:ES1!Short
by benjihyam