ES -Manipulation & 1/3ADR+Todan in NY AM Session ES -Manipulation 4H targeting 1/3ADR+ 1:4RR booked ✅
Es1!short
ES1/SPX500 BEARSHello Fellow traders, idea of distribution is done at 5th wave, this pop up price today was just retracements on the 5th wave zone.
for stoploss clearly the upside of 5th wave. with clear targets below before our future retracements.
This is not a financial advice, this is only my view on distribution type.
Same with SPX500/SPY/SP500futures charts.
Follow for more Weekly longshot trades. becareful use stoploss for better trading!
S&P500 - ES Next Stop 4000Price even can not hold the Sliding-Parallel of the Center-Line. This tells me, that if it can't jump back above the CL next week, the next target is 4000.
Happy Christmas §8-)
ES Hourly AnalysisES Hourly - Simple Analysis.
To keep it as simple as possible:
4365 is a key level as clearly depicted. While we are below it, there is bearish sentiment. Above it, bullish.
~4345 is a one hour demand zone because this is where price was able to fill the gap, while also having a strong push above a previous high and breaking above prior resistance. Price has tapped into that demand and has currently shown strength, but we need to see it get back above 4365.
SP500 ES - BEARISH BIAS NEXT WEEK! BEARS GONNA EAT
📉Bearish Bias Next Week 📉
🔴Weekly IRL Tagged
🔴Strong H4 Bearish PA after Weekly IRL Tag
🔴Looking to short towards Weekly ERL
🎯Target: 4235.5
Mr. S&P500, it's decision time again.So, here we are, below the red Center-Line.
What now?
If the Bears are successful, then we go south.
Target is the at least the white Warning-Line, or the red Lower-Medianline-Parallel. What ever is hit first.
On the other hand, P3 could be in and we get a bounce up for a re-test to P4.
This is a tricky situation.
Even more because the Nasdaq looks ready for a rebound.
What shall we do?
To me it's clear:
- if I short it, then my stop is above the CL. I don't know where yet, but it will not be super close. I rather play it with Options to give my idea more time, even if we get a bounce for a re-test of the L-MLH (gren) or the white WL.
- If I wait for more information, I accept the potential for not being on the Submarine if it tanks. What would I loose? Nothing - there's always another trade.
- And finally, on a re-test of the green L-MLH/WL, I can stalk a short from there.
Isn't that relaxing, to have so much opportunities? §8-)
Play it save Tr8dingN3rds.
S&P500 -ES has reached the Top for now.This is my 100% believe, that the S&P500 has reached at least a temporary high.
From here we will go down, at least to the dashed WL (Warning Line).
We had the Open & Close below the Lower Medianline Parallel. But price couldn't reach the WL. So, that means we had a HAGOPIAN cooking.
A HAGOPIAN means, that price will go further in the opposite direction than from where price came.
And this rule was right. SP500 was going up like there is no tomorrow. Just stupid buying all the way.
Today it found it's wall, banging it's had on the Lower Medianline Parallel. This was the first Test. As we know, price can create multiple tests before dropping down.
I was observing price action the last couple weeks and it was Insanity at it's best. Be it from Algos or HFT's, I don't care. I just follow my rules and currently they say:
<<< IT's OVA >>>
So, I follow my Medianline/Fork Rules and I'm Short.
The target is as of my rules, the next Line, which is the Warning Line. Interestingly it's also where price intersects with the bigger (Green) Pendulum Swing Fork.
Let's have a Christmas experience §8-)
ES1! Will Go Lower! Sell!
Here is our detailed technical review for ES1!.
Time Frame: 1D
Current Trend: Bearish
Sentiment: Overbought (based on 7-period RSI)
Forecast: Bearish
The market is approaching a key horizontal level 4278.50.
Considering the today's price action, probabilities will be high to see a movement to 4113.50.
P.S
We determine oversold/overbought condition with RSI indicator.
When it drops below 30 - the market is considered to be oversold.
When it bounces above 70 - the market is considered to be overbought.
Like and subscribe and comment my ideas if you enjoy them!
ES1! Will Move Lower! Short!
Here is our detailed technical review for ES1!.
Time Frame: 1h
Current Trend: Bearish
Sentiment: Overbought (based on 7-period RSI)
Forecast: Bearish
The price is testing a key resistance 4198.00.
Taking into consideration the current market trend & overbought RSI, chances will be high to see a bearish movement to the downside at least to 4170.50 level.
P.S
Overbought describes a period of time where there has been a significant and consistent upward move in price over a period of time without much pullback.
Like and subscribe and comment my ideas if you enjoy them!
ES1! - SPX - Could be Bullish Flip!CME_MINI:ES1!
CME_MINI:ES1! has broken resistance as Wall Street continues to monitor the situation surrounding the debt ceiling with hopes of a deal being reached.
This breakout needs to hold via a retest or Bullish pullback for Stocks upside.
If it's a fake out, look for potential shorts via LTF e.g. 4h
CRYPTOCAP:BTC is like a tech stock and when it's coupled to the ES1! it moves with.
Always having Plan A and Plan B scenarios so we can react once the markets provide an opportunity to execute our edge.
If you liked this idea or if you have your own opinion about it, write in the comments.
The information and publications are not meant to be, and do not constitute, financial, investment, trading, or other types of advice or recommendations.
ES1! Will Go Down! Short!
Take a look at our analysis for ES1!.
Time Frame: 1D
Current Trend: Bearish
Sentiment: Overbought (based on 7-period RSI)
Forecast: Bearish
The market is approaching a significant resistance area 4157.25.
Due to the fact that we see a positive bearish reaction from the underlined area, I strongly believe that sellers will manage to push the price all the way down to 4043.00 level.
P.S
We determine oversold/overbought condition with RSI indicator.
When it drops below 30 - the market is considered to be oversold.
When it bounces above 70 - the market is considered to be overbought.
Like and subscribe and comment my ideas if you enjoy them!
ES FuturesThe 3 Star ✨ pattern on the Daily chart shows us the possibility of ending upward momentum and the beginning of a new downtrend.
S&P 500 Futures Set-UpPut Option' Premiums are cheap compared to the chance of having a pullback.
RSI in overbought ranges.
Volume has been decreasing for the last weeks.
Entry Level: 4130
Stop Loss set at 4220 .
First Take Profit at 4050 . Second Take Profit at 3980 .
*Important to pay attention to the price action at the level of 4050. If it is recovered quickly, it will be bullish.
Consider moving the stop loss closer to the breakeven point if that happens.
Priority Number One: Survive in the market.
S&P EMAs at Historical Critical PointCME_MINI:ES1!
So I opened the chart at the weekend and flicked through the time frames and upon punching the Weekly I noticed the 21EMA and the 89EMAs were pretty tight. I decided the rest of the morning looking through the historical relationship of these two EMAs. It turns out that each time the 21EMA has come down to the 89EMA, there has been a violent reaction. In general, when there are moderate to minimal macros effecting the markets, this reaction represents a strong opportunity to long. In fact, the 21EMA has never dipped below the 89EMA and recovered until months to years later. On the flip side, on the two occasions the 21EMA did dip below the 89EMA, was in 2001 and 2008...two very significant moments in market history.
I also noted that once the break happens the S&P tends to bottom at around 40%-50% of that breaking point. If we were to use today's valuation, a 45% drop from today is around 2200. That is also the bottom of the COVID crash i.e. where the real market was going to be trading before infinite stimulus was provided by the Fed.
I found this interesting as it seems in these troubling times and with a 'nuclear winter' around the corner in Europe, there is a real macro concern for markets. I'm leaning bearish and I think this rally will fail like every rally this year and lead the 21EMA below the 89EMA. Obviously, I react to the chart and should there be a strong reaction off the touch upwards, I will be flipping bullish.
ES1! Will Go Down From Resistance! Short!
Here is our detailed technical review for ES1!.
Time Frame: 9h
Current Trend: Bearish
Sentiment: Overbought (based on 7-period RSI)
Forecast: Bearish
The price is testing a key resistance 4105.50.
Taking into consideration the current market trend & overbought RSI, chances will be high to see a bearish movement to the downside at least to 3980.00 level.
P.S
Overbought describes a period of time where there has been a significant and consistent upward move in price over a period of time without much pullback.
Like and subscribe and comment my ideas if you enjoy them!
Up and then down, or straight down? Either way we're going down!With the news of SVB about to collapse, the markets started to move into safe havens and the stock markets started moving down. Now the question is, has the move down we've witnessed been the X wave of a larger B wave which should terminate around 4300 (as illustrated in our green count). Or is this the minor wave 1 of intermediate wave 3 which should result in a very sharp move down. Either way we're convinced that over the next few months we're heading lower to 3200 as a minimum. But of course the important part we need to establish now is if we move higher for a minor wave 2 or up for the Y wave of the primary wave B. We're expecting the move down to terminate around 3800 before moving up, of course we will be closely watching this move up to see if we get 3 waves or 5 waves to confirm which count we are in. Exciting times are ahead with some big opportunites to make profits.
US02Y: BOND MELTDOWN / 4.00% CROSS / MACD CONVERGENCE / RSIDESCRIPTION: In the chart above I have provided a simple MACRO ANALYSIS on current bond market meltdown where the US02Y dropped nearly 25% within FIVE TRADING SESSIONS.
POINTS:
1. US02Y deviation is simple & marked at every 1% difference as bonds rise and fall within the same range percentage therefore it has a rubber band like price action relationship with it's lowest 1% points.
2. Overlapping Orange Line represents ES1! a US Market Future.
3. Dotted Green Lines represent continuous downward momentum in past Bear Markets (2002 & 2008).
4. Bubbles overlapping dotted green lines represent initial break of supporting bond percentage %.
IMO: In my opinion the most concerning factor to take into consideration when it comes to current bond positioning is the STEEP RISE IN PERCENTAGE especially when the overall US market momentum is tied to BOND PERCENTAGE during both RISES & FALLS & the STEEPER THE INCLINE THE STEEPER THE DECLINE can become.
MACD: Notice a complete meltdown of Bonds when MACD confirms convergence to MEDIAN & eventually breaks past median and falls into into negative territory.
RSI: Notice that unlike in other recessions RSI levels have seen more consistent exposure to MEDIAN of 50. But as of lately from a MACRO perspective that is not the case as we have seen current RSI levels linger around 70 or above in EXTREMELY OVERBOUGHT TERRITORY.
SCENARIO #1: In a very BEARISH scenario we come to see BONDS PERCENTAGE go through a complete free fall.
SCENARIO #2: In a less BEARISH scenario we come to see BONDS PERCENTAGE go through an extended consolidation phase with PERCENTAGE LINGERING ABOVE 4%.
FULL CHART LINK: www.tradingview.com
TVC:US02Y
S&P 500 E-mini Futures (Y23.P1.E1).Running FlatHi traders,
From a bearish perspective and there are many reasons for it (inflation rates, interest rates, job and housing reports) that we will likely see a prolonged bearish market no matter what the fed does. Billion still being printed for Ukraine and not for stocks and cheap loans.
As I have it, I tried the fibonacci levels all across the impulse or motive waves by using the gold 618 fib and purple 786 to 886 fib.
Assuming this is a bearish rising channel or wedge, it might have 1 more upward move before its exhausted and done before it breaks down, signifiied by the supporting Trend Line.
The green area is a measured target based on reversing the 618 and 886 fibonacci levels, basically reverse engineered based on measurements from the target level to explain the current levels.. It also has confluence with the measured AB = CD harmonic.
Maybe it could be worse.
Please give me a like and share,
All the best,
S.SAri
ES1!: RALLIES & FALLS / UPDATE / POINT OF CONTROL: 4000 & 3950DESCRIPTION: In the chart above I have provided a MACRO analysis of ES1! a future INDEX on the daily timeframe.
POINTS:
1. Deviation of 250 points would justify placement of SUPPLY & DEMAND POCKETS.
2. Pennant Formation
3. Current CORRECTION FALL is roughly 5.55% falling short by nearly 5% when compared to other CORRECTION PHASES.
RSI: Since the inception of the current bear market price action has only held one time when RSI is at a PIVOT POINT and ready to enter OVERSOLD TERRITORY.
MACD: If MACD is pulled into OVERSOLD territory or anywhere past it's MEDIAN OF 0.00. This will be a strong indicator that price action will fail to hold onto its current channel of 4050 - 3800. And would essentially mean price action will retest past channel of 3800 - 3550.
POINT OF CONTROL: Price action must remain above LEVEL 1 SUPPORT of 4000 & LEVEL 2 SUPPORT of 3950.
SCENARIO #1: In a BULLISH scenario we would come to see price action bounce at 3950 then followed by a move toward 4150 before breaking pennant formation. (Not the safest bet since this scenario would VIOLATE RSI'S TREND FROM THE PAST YEAR)
SCENARIO #2: In a BEARISH scenario we come to see a break below 3950 that would leave to PRICE ACTION not seeing support until 3800. (This would fall in line with what current indicators are signaling)
FULL CHART LINK: www.tradingview.com
CME_MINI:ES1!
S&P 500 - Potential Downward MovementS&P 500 hits supply zone and will continue its downward trend. Exit at 3rd demand zone
R.I.P. The S&PAs you can see, History repeats itself. To my technical eye, The S&P is loosing momentum at a price of major resistance AND(+) a Major trend line where price has previously ended its bull rally to return to its overall bear market downtrend. Second possibility attached. I see The S&P returning to the 350's if not much much lower. Its divergent sister, the VIX is showing similar confluence because it is also at a price area of major lows where it has previously reversed overall direction longterm. I see The VIX returning to 34.32.
SPX500 down to its final destination 3925This is what I've been telling to some folks when we reached upper edge of the flag on daily.
Precise charting and tight SL are your friends.
I've told everyone that this was a massive bull trap when price reached 4100 and then returned to 4080.
Others were saying that is just the gap covering up to 4220.
All in all, I believe that this will be our last bear drop before xmas rally. The only question that I have is How deep are we gonna drop....
GTLA
Remember: Never give up....
