Full ES Trading Plan for July 10thPlan for Wednesday: supports are 5627-30 (major), 5618-20 (major), 5615, 5611, 5604 (major), 5598 (major), 5593, 5585 (major).
We are in very low-quality trading conditions, which will persist until an external catalyst, like the CPI report on Thursday, brings more volatility. For now, we face low-quality, post-rally, midsummer fluctuations. As noted yesterday, if you plan to overtrade in these conditions, it's best to shut down your computer and save your capital. For now: 5627-30 to 5641 is the new chop zone, with everything in this being untradeable slop. 5627-30 is first support down, but has been tested heavily today so is no longer a reliable level. I would only consider engaging it if sellers can flush to 5627ish or lower then buyers pop back above 5630 to trap sellers, but even that is poor quality in the conditions we are in. Below there is 5620 support. One can try longs here to catch a few points. If sellers take us lower than that, we probably flush quite hard and I would not be interested in trying longs again until 5604. sellers flushing it, then buyers reclaiming it is always safer than buying direct.
Resistances are: 5634, 5640-42 (major), 5644, 5647 (major), 5654, 5658 (major), 5664, 5670, 5674 (major), 5682 (major), 5687, 5697, 5708, 5717. All members know, I have a hard rule not to short resistances in ES, so I won’t be shorting any of the above resistances. For those who like these low win rate trades though, 5658 would be one spot to try shorts at... as would 5674. 5640-42 may also have one final dip left in it but a high risk.
Buyers case: Nothing has changed, to be honest. The levels just vary slightly each day as time goes on. For tomorrow, buyers need 5620 to hold. If it does, ES is likely to form a structure between 5620 and 5640. From there, buyers would likely push up again, targeting 5647, 5658, and then 5674+. Normally, I provide entries for adding on strength, but given our stretched position, there aren't any high-quality opportunities. Perhaps look for pops above 5633-34, but be prepared to enter and take profits aggressively at the first level up."
Sellers case: Starts with the failure of 5618-20, with 5630-27 failure as the initial micro trigger. For the 5618-20 failure, I need to see a test here followed by a bounce or a failed breakdown to fully use up the level. After this, I'd consider going short around 5617 for a level-to-level dip. Refer to previous plans for the risks associated with these types of trades."
In general, we continue to experience post-rally chop, and I will maintain light trading until conditions change. This huge move buyers have gave us for the past week could end abruptly and without warning, likely due to a catalyst now though, and it could happen at any time. Until then, I must follow the trend only, as that's what allows me to maintain an 85% + win rate for the year. As long as the 5620 level holds (and if the bulls are highly motivated, 5630 will also hold), we can establish a base around 5620-5642 before beginning the next upward movement to 5647, 5658, 5674, or higher. If 5620 fails, sellers dip us.
