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Weekly Update: We Hear You and Choose NOT to ListenIf you’re a parent, you’ll certainly understand that children do things despite being told not to. Is it out of curiosity? A rebellious nature? An issue with authority? Or my favorite, they know more? Yes, yes, and yes. It could be those answers or a variety of other reasons. Nonetheless, we don’t expect market participants to act like children. Maybe as adults, some of us never grew up and continue to do things for the same reasons we did as children. Impulse control. Patience. Some of the hardest lessons to learn, and undoubtedly can also be the costliest. I recently read an interesting article trying to make sense of why the market has been up since March. In this article an individual, Michael Darda, with Roth MKM is quoted as saying… “ The equity markets are ignoring the bond markets and that is a mistake ”, says Michael Darda, chief economist and market strategist at Roth MKM. “ I (Darda) examined seven-decades of the yield curve and how it relates to the business cycle and equity market performance. I found there have been 12 inversions since the 1950’s. Importantly, during these occasions the inversion was shown to have preceded the eventual recession by a wide range of between seven to 25 months, with an average lag of 14 months. What is more important is my research shows based on news articles for each of the 12 previous inversion cycles, the narrative of a soft or no landing thesis was prevalent. Upon conclusion of the cycle these narratives were proven incorrect .” In my trading room I constantly rail against CNBC. Nowadays they only serve as a mouthpiece for money managers talking up their books or interview anyone with an incorrect, albeit intelligent sounding narrative. Very little push back from the hosts...(ahem, I mean entertainers). As I have mentioned many times to my members, I’ll never know what the catalysts are that tend to fulfill on my analysis…however, they tend to show up on time. But as an Elliottition, I’m fascinated by the behavior of large crowds, and when they act in a manner that the EWT analysis forecasts…it never gets old. To this day, I’m still blown away on how price can go directly to a particular Fibonacci level and reverse, or bounce. On Friday we hit a dozy of a Fibonacci level in the indices, and this upcoming week, we should have a front row seat to witness just how bad it is. But in a broader context I find myself asking the question. If the market has told its participants in 12 of the past 12 cycles that a particular outcome has happened, why would market participants choose to ignore this one? Equally baffling, why would the same narratives be resurrected to validate the flawed perspective? I simply do not have answer. However, I must offer my most gracious thanks to those crowds of traders who continue to act in a manner that defies rational thought…. Nonetheless, is highly forecastable. I thank you irrational traders. My family thanks you…and on behalf of many of my members…keep doing what you’re doing. Rock on. Best to all, Chris
CME_MINI:ES1!Short
by maikisch
11
S&P500 Buy signal within the Bullish Megaphone.The S&P500 index (SPX) is attempting to stage a rise after hitting the bottom of the Bullish Megaphone. This is after the formation of the Golden Cross on the 4H time-frame, the first such pattern since March 31. In addition, the 4H MACD just formed a Bullish Cross below the 0.0 level. This is a strong combination of bullish signals for the medium-term. As long as the Higher Lows (bottom) of the Megaphone hold, we are bullish, targeting 4640 (Resistance 2). If it closes a 4H candle below the Higher Lows, we will close the buy and open a sell instead targeting the 1D MA100 (yellow trend-line) at 4375. If after an initial rebound, it gets rejected on either the 4H MA200 (orange trend-line) or 4H MA50 (blue trend-line), we will re-sell and target the 1D MA200 (red trend-line) at 4220. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- ** Please LIKE 👍, FOLLOW ✅, SHARE 🙌 and COMMENT ✍ if you enjoy this idea! Also share your ideas and charts in the comments section below! ** ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 💸💸💸💸💸💸 👇 👇 👇 👇 👇 👇
CAPITALCOM:US500Long
by TradingShot
4
Trading Plans for FRI. 09/08 - Back to the Basics - Day 2S&P 500 INDEX MODEL TRADING PLANS for FRI. 09/08 As we wrote in our trading plans published yesterday, Thu. 09/07: "The index failed to close below 4450 yesterday, but showed continued weakness. The price action in the pre-market session after the Initial Jobless Claims is showing the potential for further weakness to develop. The retail positioning and the retail sentiment reinforce our view for a downward push to follow in the coming days. Rising yields are renewed concern for the bulls". This bias is still applicable for today. Our models are sporting outright bearish bias for positional trades while the index is below 4470. The index has to close above 4507 for our models to abandon the bearish bias. Aggressive, Intraday Trading Plans: For today, our aggressive intraday models indicate going long on a break above 4483, 4472, 4459, 4455, 4444, or 4436 with an 8-point trailing stop, and going short on a break below 4480, 4468, 4448, 4441, or 4434 with a 9-point trailing stop.  Models indicate explicit long exits on a break below 4457 or 4453, and short exits on a break above 4450. Models also indicate a break-even hard stop once a trade gets into a 4-point profit level. Models indicate taking these signals from 09:31am EST or later. By definition the intraday models do not hold any positions overnight - the models exit any open position at the close of the last bar (3:59pm bar or 4:00pm bar, depending on your platform's bar timing convention). To avoid getting whipsawed, use at least a 5-minute closing or a higher time frame (a 1-minute if you know what you are doing) - depending on your risk tolerance and trading style - to determine the signals. (WHAT IS THE CREDIBILITY and the PERFORMANCE OF OUR MODEL TRADING PLANS over the LAST WEEK, LAST MONTH, LAST YEAR? Please check for yourself how our pre-published model trades have performed so far! Seeing is believing!)  NOTES - HOW TO INTERPRET/USE THESE TRADING PLANS: (i) The trading levels identified are derived from our A.I. Powered Quant Models. Depending on the market conditions, these may or may not correspond to any specific indicator(s). (ii) These trading plans may be used to trade in any instrument that tracks the S&P 500 Index (e.g., ETFs such as SPY, derivatives such as futures and options on futures, and SPX options), triggered by the price levels in the Index. The results of these indicated trades would vary widely depending on the timeframe you use (tick chart, 1 minute, or 5 minute, or 15 minute or 60 minute etc.), the quality of your broker's execution, any slippages, your trading commissions and many other factors. (iii) These are NOT trading recommendations for any individual(s) and may or may not be suitable to your own financial objectives and risk tolerance - USE these ONLY as educational tools to inform and educate your own trading decisions, at your own risk. #spx, #spx500, #spy, #sp500, #esmini, #indextrading, #daytrading, #models, #tradingplans, #outlook, #economy, #bear, #yields, #stocks, #futures, #inflation, #recession, #softlanding, #risingyields, #initialjoblessclaims
SP:SPX
by TradersAIDotCom
Trading Plans for THU. 09/07 - Back to the BasicsS&P 500 INDEX MODEL TRADING PLANS for THU. 09/07 As we wrote in our trading plans published yesterday, Wed. 09/06: "In this morning's session so far, markets continue to be listless with the bias sliding towards mildly bearish. Nevertheless, bears need to wait for a confirmation before taking any positional shorts - a daily close below 4450 today might give that confirmation". The index failed to close below 4450 yesterday, but showed continued weakness. The price action in the pre-market session after the Initial Jobless Claims is showing the potential for further weakness to develop. The retail positioning and the retail sentiment reinforce our view for a downward push to follow in the coming days. Rising yields are renewed concern for the bulls. Our models are sporting outright bearish bias for positional trades while the index is below 4470. The index has to close above 4507 for our models to abandon the bearish bias. Aggressive, Intraday Trading Plans: For today, our aggressive intraday models indicate going long on a break above 4490, 4472, 4445, or 4419 with an 8-point trailing stop, and going short on a break below 4488, 4468, 4457, 4442, or 4415 with a 9-point trailing stop.  Models indicate explicit short exits on a break above 4459. Models also indicate a break-even hard stop once a trade gets into a 4-point profit level. Models indicate taking these signals from 09:31am EST or later. By definition the intraday models do not hold any positions overnight - the models exit any open position at the close of the last bar (3:59pm bar or 4:00pm bar, depending on your platform's bar timing convention). To avoid getting whipsawed, use at least a 5-minute closing or a higher time frame (a 1-minute if you know what you are doing) - depending on your risk tolerance and trading style - to determine the signals. (WHAT IS THE CREDIBILITY and the PERFORMANCE OF OUR MODEL TRADING PLANS over the LAST WEEK, LAST MONTH, LAST YEAR? Please check for yourself how our pre-published model trades have performed so far! Seeing is believing!)  NOTES - HOW TO INTERPRET/USE THESE TRADING PLANS: (i) The trading levels identified are derived from our A.I. Powered Quant Models. Depending on the market conditions, these may or may not correspond to any specific indicator(s). (ii) These trading plans may be used to trade in any instrument that tracks the S&P 500 Index (e.g., ETFs such as SPY, derivatives such as futures and options on futures, and SPX options), triggered by the price levels in the Index. The results of these indicated trades would vary widely depending on the timeframe you use (tick chart, 1 minute, or 5 minute, or 15 minute or 60 minute etc.), the quality of your broker's execution, any slippages, your trading commissions and many other factors. (iii) These are NOT trading recommendations for any individual(s) and may or may not be suitable to your own financial objectives and risk tolerance - USE these ONLY as educational tools to inform and educate your own trading decisions, at your own risk. #spx, #spx500, #spy, #sp500, #esmini, #indextrading, #daytrading, #models, #tradingplans, #outlook, #economy, #bear, #yields, #stocks, #futures, #inflation, #recession, #softlanding, #risingyields, #initialjoblessclaims
SP:SPX
by TradersAIDotCom
SP500 Is In A Higher Degree CorrectionSP500 has been bullish most of the year; a trend that can resume after a corrective pullback that is underway now, seen in wave 4 on a daily chart. However, wave 4 should then be made by three waves before correction can come to an end; which is not the case yet, as the recent bounce to 4492-4543 resistance area looks like a corrective wave, ideally wave (B), so be aware of more weakness after recent turn down. Ideally, wave (C) of 4 is now underway towards the lower side of a summer range. If wave (A) low is not going to be broken then wave four can also become a triangle rather than deep A-B-C drop.
CME_MINI:ES1!
by ew-forecast
S&P500: Last chance to hold this level and rise.S&P500 has turned neutral on the 1D timeframe (RSI = 46.008, MACD = 1.700, ADX = 33.340) after today's 1D candle crossed under the 1D MA50. To make matters worse, the 1D MACD is reversing and if the price doesn't rise, it will form the first Bearish Cross on such low level since June 10th 2022. On the brightside, the 0.382 Fibonacci level is still holding, and if it continues to close candle over it, this correction will turn out to be just a minor pullback similar to January 19th. So until the bearish conditions emerge, we will be bullish, targeting the 1.236 Fibonacci extension (TP = 4,670). ## If you like our free content follow our profile to get more daily ideas. ## ## Comments and likes are greatly appreciated. ##
CAPITALCOM:US500Long
by InvestingScope
3
Consolidation, ContinuedS&P 500 INDEX MODEL TRADING PLANS for WED. 09/06 As we wrote in our trading plans published yesterday, Tue. 09/05: "Markets appear searching for a direction, with a mild bias to the upside which appears to be waning. This week could reveal some clues as to the near term direction". In this morning's session so far, markets continue to be listless with the bias sliding towards mildly bearish. Nevertheless, bears need to wait for a confirmation before taking any positional shorts - a daily close below 4450 today might give that confirmation. Aggressive, Intraday Trading Plans: For today, our aggressive intraday models indicate going long on a break above 4501, 4490, 4472, or 4445 with a 8-point trailing stop, and going short on a break below 4496, 4488, 4468, 4459, or 4442 with a 9-point trailing stop.  Models indicate explicit short exits on a break above 4462. Models also indicate a break-even hard stop once a trade gets into a 4-point profit level. Models indicate taking these signals from 11:46am EST or later. By definition the intraday models do not hold any positions overnight - the models exit any open position at the close of the last bar (3:59pm bar or 4:00pm bar, depending on your platform's bar timing convention). To avoid getting whipsawed, use at least a 5-minute closing or a higher time frame (a 1-minute if you know what you are doing) - depending on your risk tolerance and trading style - to determine the signals. (WHAT IS THE CREDIBILITY and the PERFORMANCE OF OUR MODEL TRADING PLANS over the LAST WEEK, LAST MONTH, LAST YEAR? Please check for yourself how our pre-published model trades have performed so far! Seeing is believing!)  NOTES - HOW TO INTERPRET/USE THESE TRADING PLANS: (i) The trading levels identified are derived from our A.I. Powered Quant Models. Depending on the market conditions, these may or may not correspond to any specific indicator(s). (ii) These trading plans may be used to trade in any instrument that tracks the S&P 500 Index (e.g., ETFs such as SPY, derivatives such as futures and options on futures, and SPX options), triggered by the price levels in the Index. The results of these indicated trades would vary widely depending on the timeframe you use (tick chart, 1 minute, or 5 minute, or 15 minute or 60 minute etc.), the quality of your broker's execution, any slippages, your trading commissions and many other factors. (iii) These are NOT trading recommendations for any individual(s) and may or may not be suitable to your own financial objectives and risk tolerance - USE these ONLY as educational tools to inform and educate your own trading decisions, at your own risk. #spx, #spx500, #spy, #sp500, #esmini, #indextrading, #daytrading, #models, #tradingplans, #outlook, #economy, #bear, #yields, #stocks, #futures, #inflation, #recession, #softlanding, #oilprices
SP:SPX
by TradersAIDotCom
S&P500 -ES has reached the Top for now.This is my 100% believe, that the S&P500 has reached at least a temporary high. From here we will go down, at least to the dashed WL (Warning Line). We had the Open & Close below the Lower Medianline Parallel. But price couldn't reach the WL. So, that means we had a HAGOPIAN cooking. A HAGOPIAN means, that price will go further in the opposite direction than from where price came. And this rule was right. SP500 was going up like there is no tomorrow. Just stupid buying all the way. Today it found it's wall, banging it's had on the Lower Medianline Parallel. This was the first Test. As we know, price can create multiple tests before dropping down. I was observing price action the last couple weeks and it was Insanity at it's best. Be it from Algos or HFT's, I don't care. I just follow my rules and currently they say: <<< IT's OVA >>> So, I follow my Medianline/Fork Rules and I'm Short. The target is as of my rules, the next Line, which is the Warning Line. Interestingly it's also where price intersects with the bigger (Green) Pendulum Swing Fork. Let's have a Christmas experience §8-)
CME_MINI:ES1!Short
by Tr8dingN3rd
Will the Bears get Bold?As many of you may recall I recently posted that the areas of ES 4250-60 is my next target. What happens there will determine the price action for the remainder of 2023. You can read the post here. However, from a sentiment standpoint, we look next to see if boldness develops on the part of the more bearish thesis. To breach the 1.0 on the ES in any meaningful way at 4250-60 brings the ES 4150 into view for minor wave 3 of intermediate degree wave 1, which would then conclude around the 4040 area before getting a wave 2 bounce. First, let's see if the bears develop a bold sentiment. Best to all, Chris
CME_MINI:ES1!Short
by maikisch
ES Morning Shorts From Last Nights IdeaGood Afternoon everyone, I will show in depth order entries in this post, read the updates to see. This idea was formed last night around 10PM NY Time. I originally was hoping to trade up into the most recent Order Block (green path arrow) during the London session and end at the Terminus -4 around 8:00AM NY time. I then would've liked to see accumulations followed by a Turtle Soup or sweep of that low at the Terminus -4 during market open. I wanted to take countertrend longs in that area into the Order Block resting above the Liquidity Void, this move is denoted by the orange path arrow. However we ended up going straight to Terminus -4 during London and we rallied above Asia accumulation into the Bearish Order Block sitting right above (green path arrow). We took shorts from this area and we were looking to target the Sellside Liquidity below to complete our MMSM (Market Maker Sell Model) on the 15M chart. We were able able to bank 2.1% off the move just by taking profits at the short term low 4507.5 and holding a few more contracts to a slightly lower price once we noticed price wasn't wanting to break the low at the Terminus -4 just yet. The Sellside Liquidity is still a viable target, we have just been choppy since right after open so taking profits is worth the time spent waiting for price. Hopefully this was more insightful on how to form an idea for the next trading day. I will commit to making more informational posts like this. Please read the updates for a 5M look at the entries and a reference to the MMSM.
CME_MINI:ES1!Education
by blackoakcapital
Consolidation Week Ahead?S&P 500 INDEX MODEL TRADING PLANS for TUE. 09/05 As we wrote in our trading plans published Fri. 09/01: "The NFP numbers paint a picture of potentially the hoped-for Goldilocks scenario could continue into the next Fed meeting, continue to push up the markets higher. On the flip side, any weakness in today's regular session could indicate the beginning of the end of the recent bull run". Markets appear searching for a direction, with a mild bias to the upside which appears to be waning. This week could reveal some clues as to the near term direction. Aggressive, Intraday Trading Plans: For today, our aggressive intraday models indicate going long on a break above 4432, 4418, or 4502 with a 9-point trailing stop, and going short on a break below 4528, 4516, 4498, or 4488 with a 9-point trailing stop.  Models indicate explicit long exits on a break below 4510, and short exits on a break above 4491. Models also indicate a break-even hard stop once a trade gets into a 4-point profit level. Models indicate taking these signals from 10:41am EST or later. By definition the intraday models do not hold any positions overnight - the models exit any open position at the close of the last bar (3:59pm bar or 4:00pm bar, depending on your platform's bar timing convention). To avoid getting whipsawed, use at least a 5-minute closing or a higher time frame (a 1-minute if you know what you are doing) - depending on your risk tolerance and trading style - to determine the signals. (WHAT IS THE CREDIBILITY and the PERFORMANCE OF OUR MODEL TRADING PLANS over the LAST WEEK, LAST MONTH, LAST YEAR? Please check for yourself how our pre-published model trades have performed so far! Seeing is believing!)  NOTES - HOW TO INTERPRET/USE THESE TRADING PLANS: (i) The trading levels identified are derived from our A.I. Powered Quant Models. Depending on the market conditions, these may or may not correspond to any specific indicator(s). (ii) These trading plans may be used to trade in any instrument that tracks the S&P 500 Index (e.g., ETFs such as SPY, derivatives such as futures and options on futures, and SPX options), triggered by the price levels in the Index. The results of these indicated trades would vary widely depending on the timeframe you use (tick chart, 1 minute, or 5 minute, or 15 minute or 60 minute etc.), the quality of your broker's execution, any slippages, your trading commissions and many other factors. (iii) These are NOT trading recommendations for any individual(s) and may or may not be suitable to your own financial objectives and risk tolerance - USE these ONLY as educational tools to inform and educate your own trading decisions, at your own risk. #spx, #spx500, #spy, #sp500, #esmini, #indextrading, #daytrading, #models, #tradingplans, #outlook, #economy, #bear, #yields, #stocks, #futures, #inflation, #recession, #softlanding, #oilprices
SP:SPX
by TradersAIDotCom
Evening Update: What Worries Me in the Short Term?It’s not the Fed. My perspective is Chairman Powell has been fairly clear in his updates to the markets. The markets simply don’t want to hear any of it. It’s not bonds, or interest rates. Those are trackable and I have posted on the 2yr and 10yr bond yields. Yields are creeping higher and have done so since the October lows. It’s also not corporate earnings. If NVDA couldn’t save the Nasdaq…then all hope is lost. Well…not all. Lol Nope, it’s none of that. It’s the potential for a government shutdown with an October 1st deadline. Is that going to be our catalyst? In truth, I don’t know. But according to CNBC, since the United States is in a Presidential election year, the stock market can’t go down. Have I mentioned CNBC is more detrimental to trading for profit than anything. I have long contested that the US markets are in a multi-generation reversion to mean cycle. In EWT terms…a super-cycle wave IV. These excuses mentioned above, are all the old paradigms of a 100-year-old bull market which carved out our super-cycle advance in what I am forecasting as a super-cycle wave III top that occurred in January 2022. If my analysis is correct, (and it is by no means a slam dunk as to where we are right now in the indices)…the January 2022 highs will NOT be revisited for a long, long time. In the short term, let's see if the US Congress proves Fitch's downgrade of US Debt was warranted. Best to all, Chris
SP:SPXShort
by maikisch
2
NFP Numbers and the GoldilocksS&P 500 INDEX MODEL TRADING PLANS for FRI. 09/01 As we wrote in our trading plans published Mon. 08/28: “If we get a daily close above 4415 today then our models will flip to a moderately bullish bias. If not, they will continue to sport their bearish bias”. We got this confirmation with Monday's close, and our models have turned cautiously bullish on Tue. 08/29. Ever since, the markets have been on the upswing heading into - and, post - the NFP numbers release this morning. The NFP numbers paint a picture of potentially the hoped-for Goldilocks scenario could continue into the next Fed meeting, continue to push up the markets higher. On the flip side, any weakness in today's regular session could indicate the beginning of the end of the recent bull run. Aggressive, Intraday Trading Plans: For today, our aggressive intraday models indicate going long on a break above 4568, 4547, 4532, 4509, or 4491 with a 9-point trailing stop, and going short on a break below 4565, 4543, 4517, 4506, or 4488 with a 9-point trailing stop.  Models indicate explicit long exits on a break below 4555 or 4529, and short exits on a break above 4559 04 4522. Models also indicate a break-even hard stop once a trade gets into a 4-point profit level. Models indicate taking these signals from 09:31am EST or later. By definition the intraday models do not hold any positions overnight - the models exit any open position at the close of the last bar (3:59pm bar or 4:00pm bar, depending on your platform's bar timing convention). To avoid getting whipsawed, use at least a 5-minute closing or a higher time frame (a 1-minute if you know what you are doing) - depending on your risk tolerance and trading style - to determine the signals. (WHAT IS THE CREDIBILITY and the PERFORMANCE OF OUR MODEL TRADING PLANS over the LAST WEEK, LAST MONTH, LAST YEAR? Please check for yourself how our pre-published model trades have performed so far! Seeing is believing!)  NOTES - HOW TO INTERPRET/USE THESE TRADING PLANS: (i) The trading levels identified are derived from our A.I. Powered Quant Models. Depending on the market conditions, these may or may not correspond to any specific indicator(s). (ii) These trading plans may be used to trade in any instrument that tracks the S&P 500 Index (e.g., ETFs such as SPY, derivatives such as futures and options on futures, and SPX options), triggered by the price levels in the Index. The results of these indicated trades would vary widely depending on the timeframe you use (tick chart, 1 minute, or 5 minute, or 15 minute or 60 minute etc.), the quality of your broker's execution, any slippages, your trading commissions and many other factors. (iii) These are NOT trading recommendations for any individual(s) and may or may not be suitable to your own financial objectives and risk tolerance - USE these ONLY as educational tools to inform and educate your own trading decisions, at your own risk. #spx, #spx500, #spy, #sp500, #esmini, #indextrading, #daytrading, #models, #tradingplans, #outlook, #economy, #bear, #yields, #stocks, #futures, #inflation, #recession, #earnings, #usdebt, #bankdowngrades, #nfp, #jobs, #nonfarmpayrolls, #payrolls
SP:SPX
by TradersAIDotCom