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S&P 500, 7/11/23For Tuesday, 4373.25 can contain selling through next week, and once tested the 4568.25 formation attainable again within 3 - 5 weeks, able to contain weekly buying pressures and the point to settle above for yielding the more meaningful 4639.75 within 3 - 5 more days, able to contain buying through August activity.   Downside Tuesday, a settlement below 4373.25 indicates 4321.75 within several days, where the market can bottom out through July, once tested the 4568.25 formation attainable within 3 - 5 weeks.   A daily settlement below 4321.75 signals 4171.50 long-term support within several weeks.
CME_MINI:ES1!
by SpecialeAnalysis
Preparing for the Earnings Season Kick Off Later this WeekS&P 500 INDEX MODEL TRADING PLANS for MON. 07/10 Markets seem to be searching for a direction, getting ready for the earnings season to kick off later this week. If early earnings show any unexpected weakness ("unexpected" is the key word there), then we might have seen an interim top; but, if the earnings appear to be on track or with a bias to the upside surprises then the next bull leg could get well entrenched. Until this clarity emerges, expect volatility and choppy markets ahead. The previously stated resistance level of 4400-4410 continues to be in play as critical for the next directional leg. Positional Trading Models: Our positional models indicate staying out of the markets until otherwise stated. By definition, positional trading models may carry the positions overnight and over multiple days, and hence assume trading an index-tracking instrument that trades beyond the regular session, with the trailing stops - if any - being active in the overnight session. Aggressive/Intraday Models: Our aggressive, intraday models indicate the trading plans below for today. Aggressive, Intraday Trading Plans: For today, our aggressive intraday models indicate going long on a break above 4432, 4417, or 4402 with a 9-point trailing stop, and going short on a break below 4409, 4397, or 4385 with a 9-point trailing stop.  Models indicate explicit long exits on a break below 4428 or 4414, and short exits on a break above 4388 or 4411. Models also indicate a break-even hard stop once a trade gets into a 4-point profit level. Models indicate taking these signals from 02:01pm EST or later. By definition the intraday models do not hold any positions overnight - the models exit any open position at the close of the last bar (3:59pm bar or 4:00pm bar, depending on your platform's bar timing convention). To avoid getting whipsawed, use at least a 5-minute closing or a higher time frame (a 1-minute if you know what you are doing) - depending on your risk tolerance and trading style - to determine the signals. (WHAT IS THE CREDIBILITY and the PERFORMANCE OF OUR MODEL TRADING PLANS over the LAST WEEK, LAST MONTH, LAST YEAR? Please check for yourself how our pre-published model trades have performed so far! Seeing is believing!)  NOTES - HOW TO INTERPRET/USE THESE TRADING PLANS: (i) The trading levels identified are derived from our A.I. Powered Quant Models. Depending on the market conditions, these may or may not correspond to any specific indicator(s). (ii) These trading plans may be used to trade in any instrument that tracks the S&P 500 Index (e.g., ETFs such as SPY, derivatives such as futures and options on futures, and SPX options), triggered by the price levels in the Index. The results of these indicated trades would vary widely depending on the timeframe you use (tick chart, 1 minute, or 5 minute, or 15 minute or 60 minute etc.), the quality of your broker's execution, any slippages, your trading commissions and many other factors. (iii) These are NOT trading recommendations for any individual(s) and may or may not be suitable to your own financial objectives and risk tolerance - USE these ONLY as educational tools to inform and educate your own trading decisions, at your own risk. #spx, #spx500, #spy, #sp500, #esmini, #indextrading, #daytrading, #models, #tradingplans, #outlook, #economy, #bear, #yields, #stocks, #futures, #inflation, #recession, #earnings
SP:SPX
by TradersAIDotCom
S&P500 Will attempt to find Support near the 1day MA50S&P500 is so far on a flat 1day candle after a series of 3 red. That keeps the price inside a Channel Up since March 13th and of course inside the longer term Channel Up since the October 13th market bottom. The index should seek support on the 1day MA50 as it has done since March 30th, so that's a short term sell opportunity to 4330. Consequently that will be the new Higher Low (bottom) on the Rising Support of the narrow Channel Up, hence a buy opportunity targeting Resistance A at 4500. If the 1day candle gets closed under the 1day MA50 though, sell and target the bottom of the wide Channel Up and the 1day MA200 at 4150. Follow us, like the idea and leave a comment below!!
CAPITALCOM:US500
by TheCryptagon
S&P500 has activated a short term, at least, sell sequence.S&P500 has a 3 day bearish streak. Both medium and long term patterns are Channel Ups. The medium term has the MA50 (1d) as the Rising Support and the long term the MA200 (1d). At the moment, it seems that a Megaphone consolidation such as April-May is in order. Trading Plan: 1. Sell on the current market price. 2. Buy at 4310 (bottom of the medium term Channel Up). 3. Sell if a (1d) candle closes under the MA50 (1d). 4. Buy at 4130 (bottom of the long term Channel Up). Targets: 1. 4310 (bottom of the medium term Channel Up). 2. 4640 (Resistance 2). 3. 4130 (bottom of the long term Channel Up). 4. 4640 (Resistance 2). Tips: 1. The RSI (1d) is exactly at the bottom of its Channel Up. A break under it, is a sell confirmation. 2. There have been two -9% corrections since December 2022. A new one would push the price straight to the MA200 (1d) which is intact since March 24th. Please like, follow and comment!! Notes: Past trading plan:
CAPITALCOM:US500Short
by TradingBrokersView
5
S&P 500, 7/10/23The 4562.75 formation can contain weekly buying pressures, possibly through July trade, once tested 4316.25 attainable over the following 3 - 5 weeks, where the market can bottom out on a monthly basis.   A daily settlement below 4262.25 signals 4187.75 within several weeks, long-term support able to contain selling through the balance of the year and above which the 4808.25, January 2022 high is likely over that time horizon.   Upside, a daily settlement above 4562.75 signals 4639.75 within 1 - 2 weeks, able to contain buying into August activity and the area to settle above for then yielding the targeted 4808.25 within 3 - 5 more weeks. - For Monday, 4376.50 represents a narrowing zone of support down to 4372.75 able to contain selling through next week, and once tested the 4562.75 formation attainable again within 3 - 5 weeks, able to contain weekly buying pressures and the point to settle above for yielding the more meaningful 4639.75 within 3 - 5 days, able to contain buying through August activity.   Downside Monday, a settlement below 4372.75 indicates 4316.25 within several days, where the market can bottom out through July, once tested the 4562.75 formation attainable within 3 - 5 weeks.   A daily settlement below 4316.25 signals 4171.50 long-term support within several weeks.
CME_MINI:ES1!
by SpecialeAnalysis
ADP and NFP Divergence S&P 500 INDEX MODEL TRADING PLANS for FRI. 07/07 The divergence between yesterday's ADP payrolls numbers and this morning's Non-Farm Payrolls numbers is giving the optimists on the markets dreams of the Goldilocks scenario (aka "soft landing" or "softish landing") to unfold, while the pessimists on the markets are fretting over potential slowdown and the 'R' word. Overall, the twin numbers serve to leave the markets wanting for more clarity than not, and that could help continue the recent spike to consolidate for some time. The previously stated resistance level of 4400-4410 continues to be in play as critical for the next directional leg. With a quarter-point rate hike later this month a given, the FOMC meetings might be becoming non-events unless there are any negative surprises in any upcoming data. Positional Trading Models: Our positional models indicate staying out of the markets until otherwise stated. By definition, positional trading models may carry the positions overnight and over multiple days, and hence assume trading an index-tracking instrument that trades beyond the regular session, with the trailing stops - if any - being active in the overnight session. Aggressive/Intraday Models: Our aggressive, intraday models indicate the trading plans below for today. Aggressive, Intraday Trading Plans: For today, our aggressive intraday models indicate going long on a break above 4432, 4417, or 4401 with a 9-point trailing stop, and going short on a break below 4409, 4397, or 4385 with a 9-point trailing stop.  Models indicate explicit long exits on a break below 4428 or 4414, and short exits on a break above 4388 or 4411. Models also indicate a break-even hard stop once a trade gets into a 4-point profit level. Models indicate taking these signals from 10:46am EST or later. By definition the intraday models do not hold any positions overnight - the models exit any open position at the close of the last bar (3:59pm bar or 4:00pm bar, depending on your platform's bar timing convention). To avoid getting whipsawed, use at least a 5-minute closing or a higher time frame (a 1-minute if you know what you are doing) - depending on your risk tolerance and trading style - to determine the signals. (WHAT IS THE CREDIBILITY and the PERFORMANCE OF OUR MODEL TRADING PLANS over the LAST WEEK, LAST MONTH, LAST YEAR? Please check for yourself how our pre-published model trades have performed so far! Seeing is believing!)  NOTES - HOW TO INTERPRET/USE THESE TRADING PLANS: (i) The trading levels identified are derived from our A.I. Powered Quant Models. Depending on the market conditions, these may or may not correspond to any specific indicator(s). (ii) These trading plans may be used to trade in any instrument that tracks the S&P 500 Index (e.g., ETFs such as SPY, derivatives such as futures and options on futures, and SPX options), triggered by the price levels in the Index. The results of these indicated trades would vary widely depending on the timeframe you use (tick chart, 1 minute, or 5 minute, or 15 minute or 60 minute etc.), the quality of your broker's execution, any slippages, your trading commissions and many other factors. (iii) These are NOT trading recommendations for any individual(s) and may or may not be suitable to your own financial objectives and risk tolerance - USE these ONLY as educational tools to inform and educate your own trading decisions, at your own risk. #spx, #spx500, #spy, #sp500, #esmini, #indextrading, #daytrading, #models, #tradingplans, #outlook, #economy, #bear, #yields, #stocks, #futures, #inflation, #recession, #fomc, #fed, #pce, #softpce, #jobs, #adp, #adpjobs, #nfp, #nonfarmpayrolls, #nonfarm
SP:SPX
by TradersAIDotCom
S&P 500, 7/7/23For Friday, 4385.00 represents a narrowing zone of support under 4372.25 able to contain selling through next week, and above which 4557.50 remains a 1 - 2 week target able to contain weekly buying pressures.   Closing above 4557.50 signals 4624.50 within 3 - 5 days, able to contain buying through July, and the formation settle above for yielding the 4808.25 longer-term objective by the end of August or sooner.   Downside Friday, a settlement below 4372.25 indicates 4311.00 within several days, where the market can bottom out through July, once tested new-move highs likely within several weeks.
CME_MINI:ES1!
by SpecialeAnalysis
Tight Job Market, Rising Yields...S&P 500 INDEX MODEL TRADING PLANS for THU. 07/06 The FOMC meeting minutes released yesterday, and the ADP jobs numbers this morning, and the consistent Fed speak...all point to more interest rate hikes (albeit at a slower pace) ahead and the rising yields are showing that the bond markets are bracing for that scenario. While the equity markets seem oblivious to the rising yields for now, it remains to be seen how long the equity markets can believe in the Goldilocks scenario to continue. The previously stated resistance level of 4400-4410 is critical for today's market action. With a quarter-point rate hike later this month a given, the FOMC meetings might be becoming non-events unless the jobs and inflation numbers continue at concerning levels. Positional Trading Models: Our positional models indicate going short on a break below 4420 or 4410, with a hard stop at 4456, and a floating 45-point trailing stop. If a short is opened and stopped out, then the models will invalidate these levels and stay flat for the rest of the session. By definition, positional trading models may carry the positions overnight and over multiple days, and hence assume trading an index-tracking instrument that trades beyond the regular session, with the trailing stops - if any - being active in the overnight session. Aggressive/Intraday Models: Our aggressive, intraday models indicate the trading plans below for today. Aggressive, Intraday Trading Plans: For today, our aggressive intraday models indicate going long on a break above 4450, 4432, 4413, 4401, or 4391 with a 9-point trailing stop, and going short on a break below 4446, 4428, 4396, or 4387 with a 9-point trailing stop.  Models indicate explicit long exits on a break below 4409, and short exits on a break above 4391. Models also indicate a break-even hard stop once a trade gets into a 4-point profit level. Models indicate taking these signals from 09:46am EST or later. By definition the intraday models do not hold any positions overnight - the models exit any open position at the close of the last bar (3:59pm bar or 4:00pm bar, depending on your platform's bar timing convention). To avoid getting whipsawed, use at least a 5-minute closing or a higher time frame (a 1-minute if you know what you are doing) - depending on your risk tolerance and trading style - to determine the signals. (WHAT IS THE CREDIBILITY and the PERFORMANCE OF OUR MODEL TRADING PLANS over the LAST WEEK, LAST MONTH, LAST YEAR? Please check for yourself how our pre-published model trades have performed so far! Seeing is believing!)  NOTES - HOW TO INTERPRET/USE THESE TRADING PLANS: (i) The trading levels identified are derived from our A.I. Powered Quant Models. Depending on the market conditions, these may or may not correspond to any specific indicator(s). (ii) These trading plans may be used to trade in any instrument that tracks the S&P 500 Index (e.g., ETFs such as SPY, derivatives such as futures and options on futures, and SPX options), triggered by the price levels in the Index. The results of these indicated trades would vary widely depending on the timeframe you use (tick chart, 1 minute, or 5 minute, or 15 minute or 60 minute etc.), the quality of your broker's execution, any slippages, your trading commissions and many other factors. (iii) These are NOT trading recommendations for any individual(s) and may or may not be suitable to your own financial objectives and risk tolerance - USE these ONLY as educational tools to inform and educate your own trading decisions, at your own risk. #spx, #spx500, #spy, #sp500, #esmini, #indextrading, #daytrading, #models, #tradingplans, #outlook, #economy, #bear, #yields, #stocks, #futures, #inflation, #recession, #fomc, #fed, #pce, #softpce, #jobs, #adpjobs
SP:SPX
by TradersAIDotCom
Still sitting out, but wanted to check in!Hey all! Made a quick video to look at the market and just check in. I'm still enjoying my self made vacation and taking time away from the market while I think it is overinflated, as I want to see some normality come back in before I feel comfortable trading again. However, just wanted to say hello, explain what I'm waiting for, and wish everyone else best of trading if you're still in the daily grind! Safe Trading, and as always, remember your risk management plan.
CME_MINI:ES1!Short
by SemperTrader
2
S&P 500, 7/6/23For Thursday, 4393.25 can contain weekly selling pressures, above which 4552.25 remains a weekly target able to contain weekly buying pressures.   Closing above 4552.25 signals 4624.50 within 3 - 5 days, able to contain buying through July, and the formation settle above for yielding the 4808.25 longer-term objective by the end of August or sooner.   Downside Thursday, breaking/opening below 4393.25 allows 4372.00, also able to contain weekly selling pressures and the level to settle below for reversing momentum into next week, 4305.50 then likely by the end of next week where the market can bottom out through July.
CME_MINI:ES1!
by SpecialeAnalysis
This is actually getting insane.The chart above shows the 20-month EMA of the spread between the contract in front and the second contract in front for S&P 500 futures CME_MINI:ES1! It continues to explode, and this is a bad sign. Since S&P 500 futures pricing includes the risk-free interest rate, the spread between the two contracts gives insight into the market's expectations about future interest rates. To understand why the interest rate is used in the pricing of futures contracts, one has to understand futures contracts. Futures contracts are agreements to buy or sell an asset at a predetermined price on a future date. The price of a futures contract is determined by a number of factors, including the current spot price of the underlying asset and the cost of carrying the asset to maturity. The interest rate is used in the pricing of futures contracts because it represents the cost of carrying the asset to maturity for the contract seller. Since the contract seller could otherwise hold their money in a risk-free Treasury bond rather than in the S&P 500, the risk-free rate is therefore the opportunity cost to the seller, for which they must be compensated. The risk-free rate is therefore used because it represents the minimum return that must be earned in order for a rational market participant to sell an S&P 500 futures contract. Since each S&P 500 futures contract must price in the interest rate, the spread between contracts that expire sequentially indicates the market's expectation of the future direction of the interest rate. In this regard, the difference between sequential futures contracts guides the Federal Reserve's monetary policy, specifically the Fed Funds Rate, as shown in the chart below. On the flip side, the yield curve inversion is steepening by the most in over 40 years. Shown below is the difference between the 10-year U.S. Treasury and the 2-year U.S. Treasury. The ratio of the 10-year U.S. Treasury bond to the 3-month U.S. Treasury bill is even worse, as shown in the chart below. I adjusted the values by taking the square to account for periods when the 3-month Treasury bill yield went into the negative numbers What does all of this mean? It means that a U.S. recession is for sure coming, and it's likely to be stagflationary in nature. If you'd like to listen to my full thoughts, you can watch my video below. When will the recession begin? The below infographic, created by Fredric Parker, uses a probability distribution to infer that a U.S. recession is extremely likely to begin before the end of 2024. The New York Federal Reserve places the chance of a U.S. recession beginning by May 2024 at nearly 71%. This is their highest predicted chance of a recession in over 40 years -- even higher than the Dotcom Bust and the Great Recession. The amount of SP:SPX volatility that's going to occur when the yield curve attempts normalization is probably going to be off-the-charts . This is evidenced by the fact that S&P 500 volatility is sinking to cycle lows as bond volatility explodes at the highest rate of change on record. To read more about this, you can view the post below that I co-authored with @SquishTrade With that said, July tends to be bullish and markets tend to be irrational. So perhaps the bull run will continue... for now. Historically, the S&P 500 often rallies at the end of the tightening cycle, right as the market believes the rate hikes will come to an end, but before the market fully realizes the damage they've done. Meanwhile, this is all occurring while the yearly Stochastic RSI for the SP:SPX shows very strong downward momentum -- to a degree only seen during significant economic downturns. Once the recession begins, it may last a long time or it may come in the form of multiple recessions. Central banks will fight the fires with more money, worsening inflation and causing whipsaws in monetary policy. Worst of all... During periods of severe economic downturn, major political instability and geopolitical conflicts often occur. Central banks need scapegoats for their monetary policy failures. Important Disclaimer Nothing in this post should be considered financial advice. Trading and investing always involve risks and one should carefully review all such risks before making a trade or investment decision. Do not buy or sell any security based on anything in this post. Please consult with a financial advisor before making any financial decisions. This post is for educational purposes only.
CME_MINI:ES2!
by SpyMasterTrades
61
FOMC Meeting MinutesS&P 500 INDEX MODEL TRADING PLANS for WED. 07/05 Our trading plans published on Friday, 06/30 stated: "Cover any open shorts and avoid going short - next week's holiday-shortened week could add more spikes to the upside to hit any stops on the shorts". Unless something significantly changes in the FOMC meeting minutes due for release this afternoon, markets appear poised to consolidate and continue the gains to the upside. The previously stated resistance level of 4400-4410 is now the support level. Be very nimble if going short while above these levels. With a quarter-point rate hike later this month a given, the FOMC meetings might be becoming non-events unless today's FOMC minutes deliver a big surprise (which is very unlikely). Hence, last weeks' spike up has a potential to turn into the next leg of the bull. Positional Trading Models: Our positional models indicate no trading plans for today. By definition, positional trading models may carry the positions overnight and over multiple days, and hence assume trading an index-tracking instrument that trades beyond the regular session, with the trailing stops - if any - being active in the overnight session. Aggressive/Intraday Models: Our aggressive, intraday models indicate the trading plans below for today. Aggressive, Intraday Trading Plans: For today, our aggressive intraday models indicate going long on a break above 4440, 4429, 4400, or 4391 with a 9-point trailing stop, and going short on a break below 4424, 4397, or 4388 with a 9-point trailing stop.  Models indicate explicit long exits on a break below 4437, and short exits on a break above 4391. Models also indicate a break-even hard stop once a trade gets into a 4-point profit level. Models indicate taking these signals from 10:31am EST or later. By definition the intraday models do not hold any positions overnight - the models exit any open position at the close of the last bar (3:59pm bar or 4:00pm bar, depending on your platform's bar timing convention). To avoid getting whipsawed, use at least a 5-minute closing or a higher time frame (a 1-minute if you know what you are doing) - depending on your risk tolerance and trading style - to determine the signals. (WHAT IS THE CREDIBILITY and the PERFORMANCE OF OUR MODEL TRADING PLANS over the LAST WEEK, LAST MONTH, LAST YEAR? Please check for yourself how our pre-published model trades have performed so far! Seeing is believing!)  NOTES - HOW TO INTERPRET/USE THESE TRADING PLANS: (i) The trading levels identified are derived from our A.I. Powered Quant Models. Depending on the market conditions, these may or may not correspond to any specific indicator(s). (ii) These trading plans may be used to trade in any instrument that tracks the S&P 500 Index (e.g., ETFs such as SPY, derivatives such as futures and options on futures, and SPX options), triggered by the price levels in the Index. The results of these indicated trades would vary widely depending on the timeframe you use (tick chart, 1 minute, or 5 minute, or 15 minute or 60 minute etc.), the quality of your broker's execution, any slippages, your trading commissions and many other factors. (iii) These are NOT trading recommendations for any individual(s) and may or may not be suitable to your own financial objectives and risk tolerance - USE these ONLY as educational tools to inform and educate your own trading decisions, at your own risk. #spx, #spx500, #spy, #sp500, #esmini, #indextrading, #daytrading, #models, #tradingplans, #outlook, #economy, #bear, #yields, #stocks, #futures, #inflation, #recession, #fomc, #fed, #pce, #softpce, #fomcminutes
SP:SPX
by TradersAIDotCom
S&P500: One last pull back is possible before a new High.The S&P500 is pulling back following yesterday's July 4th holiday and seems to have reached a temporary top similar to May 1st. That was nearly a 1 month consolidation phase, which after testing the 1D MA50, it initiated the new bullish phase. Technically that was also the Higher Low of the four month Channel Up pattern. The 1D technicals remain bullish (RSI = 67.005, MACD = 54.870, ADX = 30.096) and as long as they do, buying is favored. We expect this short term correction to test the S1 (4,330) and then rebound, which we will buy, to the R1 (TP = 4,500), which was the April 21st 2022 High. Prior idea: ## If you like our free content follow our profile to get more daily ideas. ## ## Comments and likes are greatly appreciated. ##
CAPITALCOM:US500Short
by InvestingScope
3
SP500 is it not yet “bottomed”?! I don’t have answer! 23/Dec/22.SP500. is it bottomed or not yet bottomed? I don’t know. I only know where is my stop lost level..Asked And find answer from Mr. Market. They said treat trading like doing business = maybe in Money management might be correct but not all. E.g ..Don’t never ever try “ not compromised/manipulating” with your client / supplier as you did with Mr. Market. You always got to “succumb “cut Lost” /compromised” to Mr. Market as he is always “right”..So don’t think “ you are the boss” when you are dealing with Mr. Market...AND be honest with ourselves. no shortcut/ no hanky panky trying outsmart with your client/suppliers/ which is Mr. Market..
FX:SPX500
by SteveTan
MarketBreakdown | Dollar Index, USDCHF, S&P500 Index, AUDJPY Here are the updates & outlook for multiple instruments in my watchlist. 1️⃣ Dollar Index (DXY) daily time frame 💲 The Index broke and closed above a resistance line of a falling expanding wedge pattern. It was retested on Friday. Probabilities are high, that a bullish movement will initiate from a broken trend line soon. 2️⃣USDCHF daily time frame 🇺🇸🇨🇭 The pair keeps consolidating. The market is stuck within a horizontal range. For now, the plan is to wait for a breakout of one of its boundaries. A bearish breakout of the support of the range will trigger a strong selloff, while a bullish breakout will be an important bullish signal. 3️⃣ S&P500 Index (SPY) daily time frame 💲 The market is currently testing a local daily high. If the price violates and closes above that, it will be a strong bullish signal. A bullish continuation will be expected then. 4️⃣ AUDJPY daily time frame 🇦🇺🇯🇵 The pair is trading in a long-term bullish trend. After the price set the last high, a correctional movement started. The pair formed a falling wedge pattern. Its resistance was broken last week. I believe that a trend-following movement will initiate soon. Do you agree with my market breakdown? ❤️Please, support my work with like, thank you!❤️
TVC:DXYLong
by VasilyTrader
10
SPY Analysis SPY 65m: An acute SPY study shared with peers was used to example the weekly movement of SPY. SPY vs ES was used as a benchmark for S&P Cash Index due to intraday activity (as of recent). Using the 65m horizon, key inflection points were identified using market structure and regression analysis. Session highs for the index ending the week and quarter and marking a new yearly high with current price for SPY trading at 443.28 at the end of session. With July historically associated as a risk on period for the market, longer term bias for neutral-bullish remains (please seek 6WK study for ES1). Forward looking (on acute horizon), fibonacci analysis was applied to current structure being developed during price rediscovery and confidence of character being developed where key levels are: 444.30 (HOD), 443.99, 443.62, *443.09*, *442.71*, 441.91, 441.11 *Prices of higher interest using fibonacci application Bias: Neutral to risk on ATR: 4.27 Price at time of publish: 443.28 (amc)
AMEX:SPYLong
by GroundNinja
2
S&P 500: Winter Is Here But Spring Is ComingDear friends. 2022 was a tough year for the market with the Fed putting a hold to the tremendous inflow of capital on the markets and reversing its damage after being confronted by record inflation. The Fed did a good job by acting fast and decisive (something other central banks did not or could not do) it resulted in a USD bull market and a bear market for risk on assets. Now, we are in a different ball game, the DXY has topped, CPI is coming down and massive lay offs are announced by multiple public traded corporations across the globe. This will cool down the labour market and will further bring down CPI - yet, it will lag, thus expect the jobless claims to rise in 2023. The last big factor is that oil is coming down, due to less demand and the China lockdowns are a helping hand as well - yet, we need to keep a close on how the Russian oil sanctions will influence the oil price (see my latest analysis). If we look at the SPX, we see we have finished our 5th impulse wave down and set in a bullish divergence on the Money Flow Index (MFI) with a lower low in price and a higher low on the MFI. Furthermore, most of the sellers have jumped ship as seen in the lower volumes traded. Yet again, I want point out that this is a retail chart, institutions don't use OANDA - sorry OANDA. Thus, we see little volume at the lows but I bet the big players and especially market makers and LP's have been sweeping the lows. The overall sentiment is mega bearish and put to call ratio has hit levels not seen since the early 2000's, it was around 1.40 yesterday. With the end of the year in sight and a huge options expiration, I don't think options dealers plan on bringing their traders a happy Christmas time. Max pain is up and a very bullish sign would be if we can set a higher high by spring. Tradingview will likely explode with bullish by then, but they'll be too late. For crypto I expect a similar pathway. Bitcoin put options have been popular these last months and max pain for the end of the year is currently sitting around 19-20K. Crypto will need more time to get out of trouble especially with the chaos that is currently unfolding - yet again, I flipped net long since the last drop towards 15K with the majority of my capital invested in fundamentally strong alts. If you like to know which alts, please refer to the links below. Bring on the FUD and the market will bring the pain. Have a good weekend.
OANDA:SPX500USDLong
by cryptobullethbtcxlm
17