I'm looking to take a long into the PWH once H4 & M15 price action validate this HTF Narrative.
Thursdays Daily candle displaced and closed strongly above Wednesdays high and the fractal swing high from last week. DOL is the PDH. I want to see H1 bullish arrays respected to then look for M5 bullish displacement entry. NFP volatility tomorrow will surely impact whether or not this idea works out or not.
Monday's price action saw ES/SP500 trade above Fridays highs, but failed to displace above Friday's high. My bias is for price to trade to Monday's low. I am looking for H1/H4 bearish levels to be respected, and will then look for m5/m15 entry once I see premium bearish arrays are being respected.
Another ugly quarter so far with US Equities officially going into a bear market, an abundance of bearish sentiment, and talks of recession. Price is king and with the nice downward channel it looks like we may get a relief rally this week (possibly into next as well) given : - Reversion to the mean with price now well beneath the 30 day moving average - RSI...
Respecting the downward channel support line so far. Started taking profits on some hedges and adding to longs. Break above 403 and will add more risk long. Sold puts this morning as downside may be capped for now but that doesn't mean we necessarily rip up . Tough market to trade that's for sure !
Defined range between 4450 - 4537 until proven otherwise. Try to stay away from buying 4480-4484 as that will be tough to find the direction. STAY VIGILANT TAKE PROFITS!
As we spoke about last week, ES_F between 4273 and 4330 is our defined range until it isn't. There will be noise in-between, but until we get a daily close below or above those two areas it should be a very healthy area to long/short and make a lot of money with an elevated VIX. We think we go revisit last weeks lows early in the week, only to bounce again. Once...
Interesting time in the market - people calling a crash, people calling a melt up then crash etc. Why try and predict ? As a trader your job is to react - level by level , price by price. Let price action determine next outcome. Nice "Bear Flag" or "Accumulation pattern" ; you can trade the box or wait for a breakout higher / lower . If you watched today...
Looking for a bearish retest of the breakdown area of 4480, and then see if they chop into another leg up, or right back down on AAPL TSLA MSFT earnings. Take your profits when they are there this week.
ES flagging and creating a 30 point range. Take trades when you have them. A break and hold of 4800 should open up 4820 and possible 4840. Below 4770 is 4740 and a daily close under 4770 should get us to go retest that 4712 area which s/r flipped and hasn't been tested. Clean 100 point range to trade in.
Breakout here.. Possible squeeze to 4430 before it gets interesting. PLAN : Anticipate a move to 4430 then close out longs. Wait for break of 4470 to reenter. If rejection occurs go short. A direct move down to 4330 , close out longs and go short if this level breaks.
For continued positive momentum, should hold 4208 overnight or at most 4190. Close below 4180 could mean deeper pullback till trend line support. Overhead trend line is possible resistance on its way to 4300 (target/resistance) there.
Just like Nasdaq, bulls of S&P 500 are also under pressure. It rejected 4185 first and then unable to close above 4169 level. Now must hold 4129 level. Close below 4113 red flag. Trend line last line for bulls to defend. Then upside target still 4221. This week may decide direction for S&P 500. A cautious bullish bias.
Considering the Thursday/Friday price action as an impulse wave to the downside