Weekly SPX Outlook ending Aug 25We're at a point where 4350 has to hold at all costs. If it does, option flow is seeing a possible test of 4400 4415 4435 above. That said however, if 4350 fails, we could dump right down to 4200 then 4175.
Es_f
#ES_F Day Trading Prep Week 8.13-8.18 Last Week :
Last week market went sideways between our Key Resistance and Current Support area which we established on Sunday. Selling seemed very mechanical again because we didn't have size plowing through important levels and continuing, instead we get holds/bounces then continuation which so far has been trapping more new longs on the way down who are looking for support or bigger bounces from here while filling lower.
Thursday/Friday we finally saw breaks of 4487-79 Support and put in some volume under it as well but the break on Friday was done pre market hours and when RTH volume came in we were able to hold as market tagged the stops at 65-60 target but didn't hold/continue under trapping pre market shorts for support. We saw this time around that we didn't have strong enough buying to get us back over 4490s-4500 and we closed inside our Current Support for that week with more supply built up above.
This Week :
This week is a bit difficult to read because we are in the middle of a bigger range but we can look at what we currently have to work with. Overall I think we are still in correction lower as supply is coming out from above and we haven't seen anything to signal trend change to the upside on bigger time frames from here yet.
Last week marked balanced in the lower part of this 4560-4490 range with failures to spend any time over Key Resistance area. Friday Globex built up enough supply to break the Support for the week but got no continuation after 65-60 tag, this should be our area to watch going into tonight if we open around it. So far again we are set to open under previous weeks settlements and that would mean as long as we are holding under 4510-4495 that should bring continued weakness.
Going into tonight we have 4487-79 as an area to watch, will this previous Support now act as our Resistance or can the market find buyers to get back over it? If we can't hold this 87-79 area we have stops lined up under us starting at 75-70-65-60 area which we could go for if we either get selling or build up the supply. 4465-60 is an area to watch for any continuation this week, under it we can see 4445-37 // 4422-18 and maybe even 4403-4392 areas. Never know how much selling we will get and where the market will find the bid, if this is just trapped supply coming out and its not that much then we shouldn't see market go much lower if we do go there at all BUT just in case if enough selling comes in next Key Support area is 4375-60 and under.
For market to regain strength again we would want to see it hold over 4465-60 and ideally be able to push over 4490-95 and 4510-02 area and hold as that would bring back stability and could bring in more buyers to head for higher stops, unless this happens I will only be looking for longs from lower Support areas after market shows holds and consolidations around them that look promising. If we do hold over 4510 we have 4532-25 as another Key Resistance, just over all not looking good for longs over 4500 right now unless we find a strong bid or buying that can push us over it first.
I will be watching Globex tonight to see where we open and what we do at 87-79 area for possible continuation lower or if we start consolidating at/above then will wait for more information tomorrow.
Levels to Watch :
Resistance - Current 4490-95 Key 4508-02 // 4532-25
Support - Current 4479 // 4470-65
Stops under 4445-37 // 22-18
Next Key 4403-4392
8/18 Daily Recap, Outlook, and Trading PlanRecap
The bears had their first major technical win since mid-February, breaking the perfect rising trendline from the March lows. This has triggered a "sell the bounce" theme with the bulls struggling to put in green days in August. The question now is whether there is a relief bounce on the horizon.
Premarket
🌏 Asia: Down
🌍 Europe: Down
🌎 US Index Futures: Down
🛢 Crude Oil: Down
💵 Dollar: Up slightly
🧐 Yields: Down
🔮 Crypto: Down
World Headlines
Major Chinese property developer Evergrande is back in the news, this time filing for Chapter 15 to protect it during restructuring.
Key Structures
The declining channel extending from the July 27th high broke down on Tuesday, starting the cascade lower. The large rising uptrend channel, which connects the March lows and the May lows, also failed late Tuesday. This was the first technical success bears have had since March.
Support Levels
The most immediate major support that failed is now the immediate squeeze trigger on the reclaim of 4404. Other support levels include 4369 then 4340-45.
Resistance Levels
The backtest of the declining channel is now 4438 and was where we rejected yesterday. To set a "bottom", the large rising uptrend channel has to reclaim and currently, resistance is at 4480ish. The 4463-66 level we broke down from on Tuesday would likely also count as an early reclaim and is also significant.
Trading Plan
The plan for today is to continue to sell the bounce. A sustained bounce will only come when a resistance clears. The two big ones are now 4393 then 4404. A short squeeze could occur if we can reclaim that 4404.
Wrap Up
Bears remain in control. The general lean is that ES can test 4369 next level down, then perhaps try another sustained bounce there and if it can’t reclaim 4393 then 4404, we simply continue lower down to 4340. A squeeze could occur above 4404.
Disclosure: This is not financial advice and is for informational purposes only. Please consult a professional financial advisor before making any investment decisions.
8/17 Daily Recap, Outlook, and Trading PlanRecap
August 2023 has been a unique month with 12 trading days, 10 of which were red. Tuesday, ES hit its most significant support level, leading to a continued grind down. This triggered shorts Tuesday for a breakdown trade, which finally followed through yesterday afternoon. After 10 of 12 days red, the question is whether the bulls can get a relief bounce and where.
Premarket
🌏 Asia: Mixed
🌍 Europe: Down slightly
🌎 US Index Futures: Up
🛢 Crude Oil: Up
💵 Dollar: Down
🧐 Yields: Up
🔮 Crypto: Mixed
World Headlines
8:30am Unemployment Claims 240K expected, 239K reported. The number of individuals who filed for unemployment insurance for the first time during the past week.
8:30am Philly Fed Manufacturing Index -9.8 expected, 12 reported. Level of a diffusion index based on surveyed manufacturers in Philadelphia.
10:00am CB Leading Index m/m -0.4% Combined reading of 10 economic indicators related to employment, new orders, consumer confidence, housing, stock market prices, credit trends, and interest rate spreads.
Key Structures
The core structure remains a declining channel in yellow - extending from the July 27th high. Support today is now 4448, and resistance will be 4555-60. The large rising uptrend channel in white, which connects the March lows and the May lows, is the primary medium term channel which broke down yesterday. The reclaim of this structure will be the core objective for bulls in the coming days.
Support Levels
Supports are: 4424, 4411 (major), 4403 (major), 4394, 4382 (major), 4369, 4358, 4345, 4328-32 (major), 4312 (major), 4305 (major)
Resistance Levels
Resistances are: 4438-34 (major), 4448 (major), 4464, 4473 (major), 4493 (major) 4500, 4510-14 (major), 4524, 4533 (major), 4542 (major), 4555-59 (major), 4568, 4580, 4591 (major), 4598, 4607 (major), 4613, 4625 (major), 4641, 4657-62 (major).
Trading Plan
In terms of levels to bid direct, 4411 and 4403 are two very significant supports below here at which a knife catch long could be tried. For spots to add shorts, 4448 is fairly well tested now and may clear if we get back up there. 4473 would be one spot of interest, and 4510-14 would be the best area.
Wrap Up
This market is impossible to predict and I am in reaction mode. My loose lean if I had to give one is we sell to 4411, perhaps 4403 then try a rally there up the levels to 4448. We could see a green day off this but bulls will need to reclaim 4448 to have accomplished anything significant. 4403 fails, we start the next leg direct to 4383.
Disclosure: This is not financial advice and is for informational purposes only. Please consult a professional financial advisor before making any investment decisions.
8/15 Daily Recap, Outlook, and Trading PlanRecap
As predicted, we saw a push to 4515 major resistance followed by a dip in the ES. This was no surprise as ES remained stuck in a 1.5 week bi-directional range, the largest of its type since May 2023, and December 2022 before that. Late in the day, we finally broke the range down.
Premarket
🌏 Asia: Mixed
🌍 Europe: Down
🌎 US Index Futures: Down
🛢 Crude Oil: Down
💵 Dollar: Up slightly
🧐 Yields: Up
🔮 Crypto: Down
World Headlines
Chinese central bank cuts interest rates in surprise move on more weak economic data.
Michael Bury spooks investors with new big short. 13F filing shows he bought $1.6B of puts on SPY and QQQ.
Fitch analyst warns of coming US banking downgrade.
Key Structures
We remain in an extremely choppy range between 4515 and 4459. This level was a major, multi-month trendline and after a full day of chop, it finally cracked. This is the most significant technical breakdown in many months. ES has now been red for an incredible 9 of the last 11 days. The core structure remains a declining channel in white - extending from the July 27th high. Support tomorrow is now 4454, and resistance will be 4562.
Support Levels
4454 (major), 4448, 4438, 4430 (major), 4423, 4416, 4400-4405 (major), 4395 (major), 4382, 4368, 4350, 4339 (major), 4327, 4312-15, 4306 (major).
Resistance Levels
4461 (major), 4468, 4474, 4487-90 (major), 4505-08 (major), 4522 (major), 4534, 4545-50 (major), 4562 (major), 4568, 4579, 4591, 4597 (major), 4608 (major), 4621, 4634, 4650-52 (major), 4660, 4672, 4680, 4692-95 (major), 4705-4710 (major).
Trading Plan
Bears control until we can reclaim the area we broke down today, which is roughly 4461 now. I would be looking to trade the reclaim of this zone. If we can reclaim that white channel at 4461ish now, it will provoke a violent short squeeze and possible multi-week/month low. This would probably see a push back to 4505, dip, then onto 4560s. On the bearish side, bears control under 4461-68 zone now. Generally the bearish path here would have 4400 as a magnet with level to level bounces on the way down.
Wrap Up
Bears made a play for it today by cracking the 4461 level, and the coming hours will be key to see if its a real or failed breakdown. I will react accordingly. My loose lean is we can make our way to 4438, perhaps 4430 then try a larger bounce there. If 4461-68 reclaims, bottom is probably in.
Disclosure: This is not financial advice and is for informational purposes only. Please consult a professional financial advisor before making any investment decisions.
8/14: Daily Recap, Outlook, and Trading PlanRecap
July, the second most bullish month of the year, saw three consecutive weeks of growth, rallying 220 points. August started with the first red week in three, followed by a more turbulent descent this week. However, August is traditionally a consolidation month, with a 0.1% average return over the past 20 years. This pattern of a choppy first half and stronger second half has been evident this year, with ES making slight new lows then squeezing all week.
Markets Overnight
🌏 Asia: Down
🌍 Europe: Down
🌎 US Index Futures: Down
🛢 Crude Oil: Down
💵 Dollar: Up
🧐 Yields: Up
🔮 Crypto: Up
World Headlines
Renewed concerns about the health of China’s economy as it’s largest private wealth manager missed payments
Key Structures
The core structure is a declining channel in yellow, extending from the July 27th high. This is a bull flag, however, it only becomes one on the breakout. Patterns exist only as probabilities until they confirm. Support of this is now 4465, and resistance will be 4580. Other important structures include the major June/July resistance that started the current leg up, shown in purple below, and the large rising uptrend channel in white, which connects the March lows and the May lows.
Support Levels
Supports are: 4480, 4474, 4464 (major), 4457 (major), 4448, 4435, 4426 (major), 4410, 4395-4400 (major), 4388, 4380, 4367-70 (major), 4350, 4339, 4322, 4305-10 (major), 4288 (major).
Resistance Levels
Resistances are: 4493-88 (major), 4500, 4509 (major), 4518 (major), 4532, 4545 (major), 4555, 4564, 4568-71 (major), 4580, 4587-92 (major), 4607 (major), 4618, 4633, 4644 (major), 4665, 4670, 4681-84 (major), 4692, 4704 (major), 4724, 4733 (major), 4750-55, 4770 (major).
Trading Plan
The bull case today depends on the 4457 zone holding, and ideally, it does not even test again. An ideal bull case would look something like ES continuing to base between 4475 and 4488-93, then pushing up to 4509, 4518, then dipping again before tackling 4545. The bear case begins on the fail of 4457. Shorting here is a break-down trade, which requires a good read of the price action to execute well.
Wrap Up
We are currently in a choppy phase. The loose lean is that we can continue to base above the 4457 level and below 4492, then try to push up the levels again to 4509 then 4518. A dip there is likely. If 4457 fails, shorts trigger for a large leg down - and this leg could last days.
Disclosure: This is not financial advice and is for informational purposes only. Please consult a professional financial advisor before making any investment decisions.
SPY Levels - CGG Newsletter 08/13-18/2023Upside:
448.06 → 448.92 → 450.48 → 451.70 → 453.07
Downside
443.97 → 442.97 → 441.98 → 441.08 → 439.46
Technical Analysis:
Since making yearly lows in March, SPY has been in a larger uptrend channel, with its last higher high peaking in July. Since making this high SPY has made a downwards channel on the daily inside the larger upwards chanel, and looks to make a higher high soon on the green uptrend line. A great spot for it to bounce is coming soon. With any sign of weakness, SPY looks ready to fillthe samll gap it made from July 11-12, which should be filled at 442.97. Under this gap we have the long GP from 441.08-441.98 along with a strong daily level at 441.21. I would look to go long in this area. If we get a bounce we will look to see if we can break over last week's high of 451.70. If we can reclaim some bullish momentum, I would expect us to test the gap above (453.52-455.49), or at least get close as we have the SHORT GP from 453.29-453.81 we can target to the upside for bulls.
Failure to hold above 441.21 changes my macro view, and I would flip bearish, but my general lean is bullish going into next thursday's Jackson Hole Economic Symposium.
ES Levels - CGG Newsletter (08/13-18/2023)Upside:
4478 → 4500 → 4519 → 4542 → 4566
Downside
4459 → 4447 → 4422 → 4400
Technical Analysis:
ES tested a breakdown of a Long GP from 4461-4470, but bounced to close the Friday down only -0.1%. We want to see if ES can hold above last week's lows, if not, I could see a test below in the 4447 area where we should start to see buyers come in. This area would be crucial for us to hold this week as the bullish trendline we made from this year's March lows sits right in that area. I lean bullish throughout the week as long as we hold that trendline as support into the Jackson Hole Economic Symposium which starts next week, August 24-26.
I would expect some bullish movement to send us back to at least 4566, which was a strong daily level which also coincides with the SHORT GP that was just made from July's high to the low made on Friday.
#ES_F Day Trading Prep For the Week 8.07-8.11Last Week :
Surprisingly last week played out perfectly just had to be a little patient with things, last Sunday we noted that market needed either a strong push over 4615-10 and hold above or consolidate under 4603 before pushing over 4615-10 to possibly continue higher and if not the buyers who are not getting the upside here for weeks will start selling which can start triggering lower stops and if we take take out Swing Stops we can see lower Key Support at 4532-25 and Cost Basis under at 4525-4502 tested.
We did get a push over 4615 but it was done end of day Monday after consolidating over 4603 not under. We spent some time over it Tuesday Globex but failed to hold over. Tuesday RTH breaking, putting in time/volume and closing under 4603 signaled weakness and confirmation of trapped longs over 4603 as they tried to keep it over 4615 and failed, bid under 4590 was removed and we opened on the gap lower which started our trip to lower targets.
This Week :
Friday we got a nice pull back towards Supply area and found more selling which gave us the break of 4525-4502 cost basis. Going forward this might be our potential Supply area into this week as we did put in time and volume above it and failed to hold. Not only did we break 4508-02 but we also took out the minor stops just under it after hours.
Depending how we open (maybe another gap?) but if we fail to get back over 4508-02 and hold this could bring in more selling as we would be again under the Settlement, if that's the case then we can target lower targets. We have Current Support at 4487-49 but I wouldn't put too much trust in it, with some size we break it...
Under we have untested end of day Spike Base at 4465-60 and another Cost Basis under it at 4460-45, both are good targets if we see continuation. We would need to see 4445-37 break and hold under for any more downside.
IF this is size trying to get out of the market we will go through the levels like they don't matter but so far its been very mechanical because we can see how we get responses after the tests and still get pull backs to trap more supply on the way down.
For the market to go back up we would need to either bounce from 4487-79 or consolidate over it and get back over 4508-02 with good hold hold then we could see a move higher to retest our previous Key Support which we broke but that is now Supply area we would need either a strong bid or a nice consolidation under to get back over it I would think. We can look for possible quick longs from lower Supports if want to trade long as those areas usually have some buying around but over all better trades might be short this week. We take it day by day because everything can change, that's the way its set up now.
Levels to Watch :
Resistance // Current 4510-02 // Key 4532-25
If Above can target 4548-43 Stops Would need a hold above to continue
Support // Current 4487-79
Under can target 70-65-60 Cost Basis 4460-45
Key Support 4445-37 Would need to be broken for any continuation
Lower Area of interest just in case : 4422-18 // 4403-4383
8/11: Daily Recap, Outlook, and Trading PlanRecap
Yesterday, CPI delivered as expected with plenty of large, bi-directional swings and traps. Despite this volatility, ES followed the general trade plan well, defending the 4493 support zone and continuing the rally to high 4530s. The market closed right at the 4493-88 level, which has been tested six times since last Friday.
Markets Overnight
🌏 Asia: Mostly down
🌍 Europe: Down
🌎 US Index Futures: Down
🛢 Crude Oil: Up
💵 Dollar: Up slightly
🧐 Yields: Up
🔮 Crypto: Down slightly
World Headlines
Producer Price Index reports higher than expectations.
Key Structures
The core structure remains a declining channel, extending from the July 27th high. This is a bull flag, however, it only becomes one on the breakout. Support of this is now 4467-69, and resistance will be 4580.
Support Levels
The support levels for today are 4475, 4467-69 (major), 4452-55 (major), 4446, 4438, 4431, 4423 (major), 4413 (major), 4397-4401 (major), 4383, 4367 (major), 4351, 4338 (major), 4327, 4317, 4310 (major).
Resistance Levels
The resistance levels for today are 4492-88 (major), 4500, 4509-13 (major),4522, 4527 (major), 4539, 4543-46 (major), 4554, 4560 (major), 4570, 4580-85 (major), 4592, 4598, 4608 (major), 4617 (major), 4625, 4635, 4643 (major), 4650, 4657 (major), 4665, 4681 (major).
Trading Plan
The bull case today would involve ES defending the 4469-67 zone lowest, then reclaiming that 4493-88. From there, we’d make the same trip - back to 4509, dip, then up again to 4540s. If we do flush again today, 4450 is the last shot for bulls.
The bear case begins on the fail of 4469-67. I’d need to see a bounce or failed breakdown here to drain demand from the level, then I’d consider short perhaps 4466 for the move down the levels. The real sell comes on the fail of 4452-55. After an initial bounce to drain demand, I’d be looking to short the breakdown here perhaps 4445 for a move down the levels.
Wrap Up
These remain complex conditions, but also prime conditions for traders who just trade the levels and aren’t focused on trying to predict the price action. My general lean for today is that ES can defend that yellow flag support (4469 lowest), then reclaim 4493 to try back up to 4509+ again. If 4469 fails, we test 4450. Real selling starts below.
Disclosure: This is not financial advice and is for informational purposes only. Please consult a professional financial advisor before making any investment decisions.
8/10: Daily Recap, Outlook, and Trading PlanRecap
The month of August has seen a shift in trading character, with massive bi-directional swings in the ES. The ES made four full round trips from the 4535+ zone down to the 4480-90 zone since Friday alone. On Tuesday, the ES rallied to 4532 then dipped back down to the 4480-90 zone and held. The 4493-88 zone remains the most important area in ES, as it back-tests the zone we broke out from on July 12th, triggering a 3 week rally. Today is CPI day, which are typically the most volatile and difficult trading days of the year.
Markets Overnight
🌏 Asia: Mostly up
🌍 Europe: Up
🌎 US Index Futures: Up
🛢 Crude Oil: Down
💵 Dollar: Down
🧐 Yields: Down
🔮 Crypto: Down slightly
World Headlines
It’s inflation day. US Consumer Price Index inflation prints slightly below expectations at 3.2%.
Key Structures
The core structure now remains a declining channel in yellow - extending from the July 27th high. This is a bull flag, however, it only becomes one on the breakout. Support of this is now 4475, and resistance will be 4580. Everything inside equals consolidation.
Support Levels
Supports are: 4493-87 (major), 4484, 4475 (major), 4467, 4459, 4453-48 (major), 4438, 4420-23 (major), 4410, 4395-4400 (major), 4382, 4368 (major), 4351, 4340-45 (major), 4327, 4317, 4310 (major).
Resistance Levels
Resistances are: 4508-04 (major), 4521 (major), 4528, 4538-40 (major), 4547, 4559 (major), 4569, 4579-83 (major), 4592, 4598-4601, 4614-17 (major), 4624, 4631, 4639-43 (major), 4647, 4660, 4670, 4677-80 (major), 4692 (major), 4705.
Trading Plan
For CPI days, price can squeeze very hard, through multiple levels so any shorts that are counter-trend must be taken small and at your own risk. The 4538-40 zone remains a strong resistance. If ES were to dip, this is the spot before we head to 4579-83.
Bull case today: We are clinging right to that major 4493-88 support zone right as I write this. As long as this general cluster keeps holding, the bull case is alive and well.
Bear case today: Begins now on fail of 4475. As always - I don’t chase. I’d need to see a bounce there, followed by a base building. Then I’d consider short perhaps 4472.
Wrap Up
CPI day - it is not possible to predict and we can easily see 4300s or 4600s (or absolutely nothing). I’ll be reacting and picking my spots. If today were a normal day, my general lean would be that we would keep defending this 4493 support zone (4475 on any spikes down) then continue the rally to 4509, then onto high 4530s. Dip there before higher. 4475 fails, we sell.
Disclosure: This is not financial advice and is for informational purposes only. Please consult a professional financial advisor before making any investment decisions.
8/9: Daily Recap, Outlook, and Trading PlanRecap
The week started with a squeeze due to ES back-testing the crucial 4493 level from its July 12th breakout. This led to a technically perfect 48 point rally on Monday. However, markets are known to be unpredictable and often trap players in a cycle of relentless dip buying and selling. Tuesday saw a sell-off from Monday's highs down to 4480s, followed by a hard squeeze in the afternoon. The squeeze started once again from the 4487-93 zone.
Markets Overnight
🌏 Asia: Mixed
🌍 Europe: Up
🌎 US Index Futures: Up a bit
🛢 Crude Oil: Up
💵 Dollar: Down slightly
🧐 Yields: Mixed
🔮 Crypto: Up
World Headlines
White House will announce today new investment restrictions in advanced technology industries such as advanced semiconductors, artificial intelligence and quantum computing.
Key Structures
Several key structures are in place, including a declining channel from the July 27th high, which is technically a bull flag. Support for this is now at 4493-87, and resistance will be at 4581-85. Other noteworthy levels include 4509, which has been a dominant magnet this week, and 4493-87, which represents major June/July resistance.
Support Levels
The support levels to watch are: 4515, 4505-09 (major), 4493-88 (major), 4475, 4464-66, 4450-53 (major), 4443 (major), 4432, 4420-23 (major), 4411, 4400 (major), 4387, 4370, 4362 (major), 4351, 4345 (major).
Resistance Levels
Resistances are: 4532 (major), 4540, 4548 (major), 4558, 4574, 4581-85 (major), 4597, 4607 (major), 4614, 4625, 4637-40 (major), 4655, 4665, 4674 (major), 4687 (major).
Trading Plan
Bulls need to hold the 4493 backtest, and 4509 should continue to hold as well. If 4509 fails, it could lead to a trip back down to 4493-88. For bears, 4509-05 needs to fail. In terms of adding on strength, a nice bull flag overnight below 4520 and above 4509 could lead to a push to 4530+.
Wrap Up
Bulls defended an important support at 4493, and now need to keep running this. The general lean is for bulls to continue defending 4509, then run to 4530 or so, dip, then 4548. If 4509 fails, it's back down the levels again.
8/8: Daily Recap, Outlook, and Trading PlanRecap
As predicted in my last newsletter, the ES saw a relief bounce after putting in 4 consecutive red days for the first time since May. I went long late on Friday afternoon at 4493 and we saw a rally from 4493 on Friday to 4522 overnight on Monday, followed by a dip and then a continued rise. This was due to a technical backtest of a 3-week ascending triangle that broke out on July 12th.
Markets Overnight
🌏 Asia: Mostly down
🌍 Europe: Down a lot
🌎 US Index Futures: Down a lot
🛢 Crude Oil: Down
💵 Dollar: Up
🧐 Yields: Down
🔮 Crypto: Up a bit
World Headlines
China CPI and PPI data show deflation becoming a serious concern
Moody’s downgrades numerous US regional banks and puts six larger banks on watch
Key Structures
The core structure now is a downtrend channel, extending from the July 27th high. This is a bull flag, with support at 4493-87 and resistance at 4592. Inside this structure, the 4550 zone and the 4528 level are noteworthy. The large rising uptrend channel in white, connecting the March lows and the May lows, is the primary medium-term channel.
Support Levels
The major support levels are 4527, 4509, 4493-87, 4475-70, 4448-51, 4438, 4421, 4397-4402, 4350-55, and 4307-4311.
Resistance Levels
The major resistance levels are 4538, 4556, 4577-80, 4591, 4620, 4634, 4668.
Trading Plan
I'm still holding my leftover 10% runner from 4493 and will only add if we get a good dip. After yesterday's rally, I think tricky, tactical, back and forth action is likely today. The best entry would be if we clipped 4509 support then popped to 4515. I'm not interested in buying the 4509 again as it's no longer a fresh level. In terms of shorts, I favor 4556 and 4577-80.
Wrap Up
While we dip today, bulls will want to defend that 4509 support at the lowest. The direct bull case would look something like holding above 4527, popping to 4549 or 4556, then heading up to 4577-80. The short-term bear case begins with the fail of 4509. I think things likely get tactical today, rewarding level to level day traders only with no bias. Expect bi-directional action.
Disclosure: This is not financial advice and is for informational purposes only. Please consult a professional financial advisor before making any investment decisions.
8/7: Daily Recap, Outlook, and Trading PlanRecap
August started off with a bearish week for ES, marking its first red week in a month. The month is historically bearish at the start but bullish towards the end. Last week saw a rare three consecutive red days, a pattern only exceeded once since the March low. A relief bounce was anticipated, with a target of 4550, which played out as expected. ES then experienced its 4th red day in a row last Friday.
Markets Overnight
🌏 Asia: Mixed
🌍 Europe: Down slightly
🌎 US Index Futures: Up
🛢 Crude Oil: Down
💵 Dollar: Up slightly
🧐 Yields: Up a bit
🔮 Crypto: Mixed
World Headlines
Bond market volatility continues as Fridays strong bounce is starting to look like a dead cat bounce this morning.
Key Structures
Several main structures are being monitored, including a new downtrend channel extending from the July 27th high. This is technically a bull flag, but only becomes one on the breakout. Inside this structure, the 4550 zone is significant, having been tested three times and failed, triggering a 50 point sell. The 4524 level is another critical point, acting as support for the ascending triangle that broke out on July 12th.
Support Levels
Key support levels include 4493, 4487, 4475-73, 4461, 4448-53, 4443, 4425-30, 4413, and 4395-4400.
Resistance Levels
Resistance is found at 4509, 4515, 4520-24, 4534, 4538, 4547-50, 4555, 4567, 4578-80, 4585, 4592, 4597, 4609, 4617, and 4624.
Trading Plan
A small long position was taken at the 4493 level last Friday. If this zone fails, the market could free fall again, with the "major" zones being potential knife catch spots. For the bulls, the key hurdles are 4509 and 4524. For the bears, the case begins on the loss of 4487.
Wrap Up
While bears remain in control, there is caution over short-squeeze risk after four consecutive red days. The general lean for today is that ES can hold the 4487-93 zone, then try to retest 4520-24, perhaps with a small dip, then try higher. If 4487 fails, the market could continue downward.
Disclosure: This is not financial advice and is for informational purposes only. Please consult a professional financial advisor before making any investment decisions.
SPX Outlook: Week ending 08/114500 remains a key line in the sand.
Above 4500 can test 4525, 4540, 4575 then 4600.
Below 4500 can test 4480, 4460, 4400 then 4360.
#ES_F Day Trading Prep Week 7.31-8.05 Last Week : We continued our distribution above 4570 which is our bigger time frame Resistance area. We have been going sideways building up supply here with a few attempts to continue towards upper part of HTF Resistance at 4666 but were met with selling. Key Support and Key Resistance for the week provided great trades up and down the range. Thursday we trapped buyers over 4615-4603 Resistance which gave us a look above and fail, market flushed but wasn't just yet ready to break 4570-62 and who ever got too short Thursday at the lows provided us with buying on Friday to bring us back towards our trapped supply area or start at Key Resistance.
This Week : We have been building Supply in this 4570-4615 range for almost 2 weeks with a failure to get current Key Resistance. We have stops lined up below us and trapped buyers above, this tells us if the market cannot get over 4614 area, hold and then take out 4628-23 then we shouldn't be looking for continuation higher for now.
Previous Day and T2 highs are right above us with trapped time and volume over 4615.
If market cant get over 4615 and accept then we would look for rotation lower as the longs who are buying in this range are not getting the upside and could start selling out. If we start triggering lower stops that can bring more selling. If current Cost basis and Swing Stops below 4562 get taken then we could see a move towards the stops at 4548.75-43 with a look under around 4637 and possibly test our next Key Support at 4532.50-24.
Our next cost basis would be just under that and we could see buying front running that area on first attempts unless we will have size selling that could break it and continue then we could stay around that lower range this week that is IF we break of course.
For the market to continue higher we would need to either see buying to take us over 4615 right away and hold above trapped last weeks shorts under for support or get under 4603, build a base above 4590 and then take out 4603-10 again, after that I think we could target next ranges Resistances and stops.
Levels to Watch :
Current Support : 4603-4598.75
If Broken Could Target 4589.50-84.75 // 4570-62.50
If Broken Could Target 4551.25-48.75-43.75
Next Key Support 4532.50-24.25 Possible to see buyers around 4537 on first tests
Current Key Resistance 4614.50-9.75
IF broken and hold above Could Target 4623-28
Next Key Resistance 4646.25-4336.50
8/4: Daily Recap, Outlook, and Trading PlanRecap
As we've moved into August, we've seen a shift in the “character” of ES, with volatility returning and large, bi-directional swings in the market. Despite this, it's important to note that August is not a “bearish month” but rather a seasonally neutral month, with a +0.1% average over the last 20 years. The focus for this month will be on tactical, unbiased level to level day traders.
Markets Overnight
🌏 Asia: Up
🌍 Europe: Down a bit
🌎 US Index Futures: Up a bit
🛢 Crude Oil: Up a bit
💵 Dollar: Down
🧐 Yields: Down
🔮 Crypto: Up slightly
World Headlines
Bond market showing early sign of stabilizing.
Key Structures
The core pattern containing the entire consolidation since the July 19th high was a broadening formation, which broke down on Wednesday. This pattern suggests that bears control below and bulls control above. Other key structures include the rising support trendline of the purple ascending triangle and the large rising uptrend channel in white.
Support Levels
Key support levels include 4525, 4517, 4509, 4493, 4487, 4476, 4464, 4448, 4441, 4428, 4411, 4395-4400, 4382, and 4376.
Resistance Levels
Resistance levels to watch are 4534, 4542, 4550-53, 4560, 4565, 4577-80, 4583, 4592, 4599, 4607-09, 4618, 4623, 4630, 4639, 4650, 4661, and 4671.
Trading Plan
For today, the short-term bull case depends on the 4509 level continuing to hold. The bear case begins if the 4509 level fails. As always, it's important to plan your zones of engagement in advance, wait for entry setup, take a level to level piece, then reset bias from scratch, and get to the sidelines.
Wrap Up
With the return of volatility, August is shaping up to be an interesting month for traders. Key levels and structures have been identified for both bull and bear scenarios, and as always, the focus should be on tactical, unbiased level to level trading. With Apple earnings expected to introduce some volatility into the market, it will be important to stay reactive and flexible in your trading approach.
Disclosure: This is not financial advice and is for informational purposes only. Please consult a professional financial advisor before making any investment decisions.
8/3: Daily Recap, Outlook, and Trading PlanRecap
The last newsletter discussed the potential for bearish seasonality in August for SPX. This was timely as volatility was unleashed shortly after the newsletter was sent out. The catalyst for the volatility and selling was the US credit downgrade, which triggered a loss of critical multi-day support. This led to the most eventful evening session of 2023, followed by more daytime volatility.
Markets Overnight
🌏 Asia: Mostly down
🌍 Europe: Down
🌎 US Index Futures: Down a bit
🛢 Crude Oil: Up
💵 Dollar: Down slightly
🧐 Yields: Up strongly
🔮 Crypto: Down
World Headlines
The timing and reasoning of the Fitch Treasuries downgrade is being questioned, limiting the downside which was much worse when S&P Global downgraded 11 years ago.
Key Structures
The core pattern containing the entire consolidation since the July 19th high was a broadening formation, also called a megaphone. This pattern broke down yesterday and will need to reclaim support to trigger any sustained squeeze upward. The next major support down below 4553 is 4508-15. This is the support of the large, purple ascending triangle structure we broke out on July 12th.
Support Levels
Supports are: 4531-33 (major), 4527, 4516 (major), 4509 (major), 4497-93 (major), 4486, 4475, 4467, 4455 (major), 4441-46 (major), 4431, 4424 (major).
Resistance Levels
Resistances are: 4543, 4531-33, 4551-53 (major), 4560, 4565, 4575 (major), 4584 (major), 4592, 4599,4606-08 (major), 4613, 4620, 4624-26 (major), 4634, 4644, 4653, 4666-70 (major).
Trading Plan
For the bull case today, there is no short-term bull case until a resistance reclaims. For now, this is 4551-53 and reclaim there would trigger back to 4575, likely dip there, then probably back to 4605. The bear case today begins on the fail of 4531. One could short this 4527 or so with target of 4509-16.
Wrap Up
These are level to level traders markets and they are prime conditions. The focus will be on reacting to the action and not making predictions. If a prediction had to be made, it would be a backtest of 4553, perhaps a sell to 4509-16, then a rally from there.
Disclosure: This is not financial advice and is for informational purposes only. Please consult a professional financial advisor before making any investment decisions.
8/2: Daily Recap, Outlook, and Trading PlanRecap
After the ES rallied and trended cleanly for +390 points from June to mid-July, the last two weeks have been characterized by a grinding summer chop. Despite testing the 4609 level six times in the last week with two failed breakouts, the ES has remained stubbornly resistant.
Markets Overnight
🌏 Asia: Down
🌍 Europe: Down
🌎 US Index Futures: Down a lot
🛢 Crude Oil: Up
💵 Dollar: Up slightly
🧐 Yields: Up
🔮 Crypto: Down
World Headlines
United States government debt loses it’s AAA rating as Fitch downgrades US Treasuries from AAA- to AA+
Key Structures
The core pattern containing the entire consolidation since the July 19th high is now a broadening formation. This structure, called a “right angled, ascending broadening formation”, has support roughly at 4560 and resistance roughly at 4660.
Support Levels
The major support levels are at 4599, 4592-89, 4570-73, 4562, 4548-50, 4493-88, 4445-50, 4410-15 and 4403.
Resistance Levels
Resistance levels are at 4608, 4614, 4618, 4623-26, 4648-4652, 4661, 4682-88, 4706-08, 4717, 4726, 4736, 4750 and 4760-65.
Trading Plan
Given the current unpredictable chop, trading will be done very seldomly. If we do get some upside today, 4623-26 is considered strong and likely has one final sell off before any breakout. The bear case would begin on the fail of 4592-89.
Wrap Up
We remain in a period of low predictability chop and the focus will be on executing the above trade plan. If 4589 fails, it's short to 4570-73, bounce, then probably lower down to 4550.
Disclosure: This is not financial advice and is for informational purposes only. Please consult a professional financial advisor before making any investment decisions.
8/1: Daily Recap, Outlook, and Trading PlanRecap
ES continues its characteristic bull market cycle of multi-day squeezes followed by wide rangebound consolidation under resistance, as it has done since July 19th. This pattern is expected to continue until a breakout occurs.
Markets Overnight
🌏 Asia: Down a bit
🌍 Europe: Down
🌎 US Index Futures: Down
🛢 Crude Oil: Down
💵 Dollar: Up
🧐 Yields: Up strongly
🔮 Crypto: Down
World Headlines
Manufacturing data weak across China and Eurozone with Germany showing the steepest decline since the pandemic.
Key Structures
The triangle at 4609 remains the key structure, despite being somewhat "busted". This level has been tested six times in the last week and is proving to be a strong resistance. The ascending triangle at 4569-4571 is now support. The large rising uptrend channel connecting the March lows and the May lows is the primary medium term channel, with support currently at 4405 and resistance at 4650-55.
Support Levels
Supports are at 4608, 4602, 4594-92 (major), 4580, 4568-71 (major), 4556, 4549 (major), 4542, 4530 (major), 4515, 4500, 4488-92 (major), 4474, 4467, 4455-60 (major), 4442-45 (major).
Resistance Levels
Resistances are at 4608 (major), 4617, 4622 (major), 4631 (major), 4641, 4652-55 (major), 4664, 4670, 4681-84 (major), 4697, 4705 (major), 4714, 4722, 4740-45 (major), 4751, 4762 (major).
Trading Plan
The bull case is in play above 4592 and 4600, with a potential breakout to 4622 and then up to 4652-55. The bear case begins on the fail of 4592, with a potential short at 4589 for a move down the levels. If 4592 fails, it's time to short.
Wrap Up
ES continues to consolidate and build its base. As long as 4600 holds, with any spikes down to 4592 quickly bought, ES can continue to base for a push to 4622, then a final dip, then a breakout up the levels to 4631, then the 4655 magnet. If 4592 fails, it's time to short.
Disclosure: This is not financial advice and is for informational purposes only. Please consult a professional financial advisor before making any investment decisions.
7/31: Daily Recap, Outlook, and Trading PlanRecap
In the past week, the markets have shown a series of traps and failed breakouts/breakdowns, with a significant bear trap occurring last Thursday. The ES sold 75 points, only to bounce back, demonstrating the biggest bear trap in 2 months. The 4608 level has been resistance for a full week, tested 4 times with one failed breakout.
Markets Overnight
🌏 Asia: Up
🌍 Europe: Up
🌎 US Index Futures: Up
🛢 Crude Oil: Up
💵 Dollar: Unchanged
🧐 Yields: Down slightly
🔮 Crypto: Up
World Headlines
Bank of Japan appoints new head of monetary policy while buying bonds to offset the fallout from last weeks yield curve control policy adjustment.
Key Structures
Two basic patterns are at play: the purple triangle with 4609 resistance and 4569 support, and a broadening formation with support around 4560 and resistance around 4650. The combination of these two structures does bias bullish in terms of breakout direction targeting 4650s.
Support Levels
Key support levels are 4600, 4588-91(major), 4580 (major), 4569, 4560 (major), 4555, 4547 (major), 4530-35 (major), 4515, 4493-97 (major), 4487, 4475, 4455-60 (major).
Resistance Levels
Key resistance levels are 4608 (major), 4615, 4622 (major), 4633, 4642 (major), 4650-55 (major), 4663, 4678-80 (major), 4689, 4698-4703 (major), 4712, 4726 (major).
Trading Plan
Bulls should aim to hold the 4580-90 cluster on dips, with a hyper bullish case seeing ES continue to bull flag above 4600 and below Friday’s highs. Bears need 4560 to fail to see any real selling and could look to short at 4558 for a move down the levels.
Wrap Up
In summary, the market continues to base build with 4609-4560 being complete, random chop. The general lean is that the range will fill out more, ideally by dipping into the 4580-90 support cluster again. From there, ES can try a push up the levels to 4622, 4642, 4650-55. The 4560 level needs to fail to trigger shorts, and it would likely be a significant one.
Disclosure: This is not financial advice and is for informational purposes only. Please consult a professional financial advisor before making any investment decisions.
#ES_F Day Trading Prep 7.23.23 Tuesday market took out the stops over 4562 and squeezed over 4570. We took out middle of next range and made a push into next Resistance area where we found sellers.
We found buyers under 4584 on first tests giving us Support but we didn't have enough buying to take us back towards the stops are our now Key Resistance area. After we fully took out mid of the range and had Supply above us we flushed down back to Previous Key Resistance where we found next Support area.
Going into Globex and RTH we have 4551-43 as our next potential Support, We are right at Previous Day and T2 lows, if we get some selling market could take out the stops here and see how much inventory comes out for a potential move towards 4557 - 51 - 48. This would be area to watch for any continuation lower or reversal.
If we get down to 51-43 and fail to break it and hold under and instead consolidate and make a move back over 4570-62 we could see another attempt at Current Resistance with Targets of 4577 - 85. To continue over resistance we would to get over 4590-95 and hold over, if not we could get more selling from there.
We could potentially get more sideways actions here until we are ready to move out.
Levels to Watch :
Current Support : 4562.50-57.50
If broken can target 4551-48.75
Would Need to hold under 43.75 For Lower
Current Resistance : 4570
Over cold target 4576 - 84.75
Would need to be over 95-90 for continuation to Key Resistance
