SPX Outlook: Week ending Jul 7thOptions premium is indicating 4450-4435 is key flip point. If 4435 gives out, we could drop to 4400 and 4375 below that. Hold the 4435-4450 area and we could ramp 4500-4525 by end of the week.
Es_f
6/30: Daily Recap, Outlook, and Trading PlanRecap
In the last week, we saw the ES put in a 6-day buyable pullback leg, forming a textbook bull flag pattern. The bottom of this pattern was found at the 4372 support level, leading to a 60+ point rally higher. This pattern once again demonstrates the predictive power of simple chart patterns. We are now heading into a period of Holiday Trading, which is traditionally a strong period. Can ES keep its momentum up?
The Markets Overnight
🌏 Asia: Up
🌍 Europe: Up strongly
🌎 US Index Futures: Up strongly
🛢 Crude Oil: Up
💵 Dollar: Down a bit
🧐 Yields: Down
🔮 Crypto: Up strongly
World Headline
China manufacturing PMI shows continued contraction, but Chinese equity markets up on expectation of further stimulus.
Key Structures
The key structures to watch are the falling channel from the June highs, the 4374 level, the main breakout level from June 1st and 2nd, and the large rising uptrend channel. These structures provide the broad trend and context for the daily price action.
Support Levels
The major support levels are at 4420-22, 4400-5, 4390-93, 4374-76, 4350-53, 4346, 4334, 4318, 4295-4300, and 4286. These levels are key for bulls to hold in order to keep the rally going.
Resistance Levels
The major resistance levels are at 4440-45, 4460, 4480-85, 4503, 4520, 4545, 4555, and 4568-71. If we breakout higher, shorts are risky. The 4460 level in particular is a spot to watch for a potential pullback.
Trading Plan
The bull case for today is that as long as 4420 or 4400-4405 holds, bulls can continue base building above 4420, targeting a push higher to 4445 and then 4460. The bear case is that if 4374 fails, look for shorts. There is also a riskier breakdown short on the fail of 4420.
Wrap Up
We remain in a consolidating market to setup a move. ES tried to breakout a bull flag yesterday and the loose lean is that as long as 4420 or 4400-05 holds, we can push to 4445 and then 4460. 4372 remains the must hold final support and below there look for shorts.
Disclosure: This is not financial advice and is for informational purposes only. Please consult a professional financial advisor before making any investment decisions.
6/29: Daily Recap, Outlook, and Trading PlanRecap
This week saw the continuation of our Technical Analysis 101 principles, with the ES rallying 330 points from its May 24th low and experiencing its first 6-day pullback last week. The pullback stopped at exactly the 4372 level, which had been identified over a week ago. This level was the breakout point of a 6-month rising channel on June 12th. We also saw several more trades set up yesterday, with the 4400 zone proving key.
The Markets Overnight
🌏 Asia: Down
🌍 Europe: Mixed
🌎 US Index Futures: Mixed
🛢 Crude Oil: Down slightly
💵 Dollar: Up
🧐 Yields: Up a lot
🔮 Crypto: Up
World Headline
According to recent reports, the top 23 banks in the nation have successfully passed the stress test conducted by the Federal Reserve. This means that even in the event of a severe global recession, these banks will be capable of continuing their lending activities.
Key Structures
Several core big picture structures and levels are being watched, including the falling channel from the June highs, the 4374 level, the main breakout level from June 1st and 2nd, and the large rising uptrend channel in white.
Support Levels
Key support levels for today include 4408, 4402-4400 (major), 4393, 4383 (major), 4373 (major), 4364, 4350-53 (major), 4345, 4334 (major), 4328, 4321-17 (major), 4311, 4294 (major), and 4281-86 (major)
Resistance Levels
Resistance levels to watch are 4413, 4421-25 (major), 4433 (major), 4443, 4451 (major), 4460 (major), 4475-80 (major), 4485, 4501-05 (major), 4515, 4527, 4536-40 (major), 4553 (major), 4564 (major), 4572, 4584 (major), and 4600-05 (major)
Trading Plan
The bull case is generally in play as long as we are above the 4373 level, with the 4400 level being essential today. The bear case begins on the fail of 4373. The current complex consolidation zone requires careful navigation, but the general lean is towards a trip to 4433 and then 4450 as long as 4400 holds.
Wrap Up
This week has been a victory for our Technical Analysis 101 principles, with the ES rallying and pulling back at key levels. With several core structures and levels being monitored, the current consolidation zone requires careful navigation. As always, the trading plan depends on the holding or failing of key levels.
Disclosure: This is not financial advice and is for informational purposes only. Please consult a professional financial advisor before making any investment decisions.
6/28: Daily Recap, Outlook, and Trading PlanRecap
After a five-week rally, the ES saw its first pullback phase last week, with five out of six days in the red. However, the pullback ended at 4372, a multi-month support level. This led to a 30-point rally, highlighting the power of simple channels. Yesterday’s rally was also set up by a clean failed breakdown late yesterday.
The Markets Overnight
🌏 Asia: Mostly up
🌍 Europe: Up
🌎 US Index Futures: Down a bit
🛢 Crude Oil: Down a bit
💵 Dollar: Up
🧐 Yields: Down
🔮 Crypto: Down
World Headline
A group of top bankers, consisting of Powell, Lagarde, Bailey, and Ueda, gathered in Portugal to participate in a panel discussion about central bank policy.
Key Structures
The channel in orange from the June highs - this structure has controlled the entire 6 day selloff from Junes highs.
The 4373 level - very important and mentioned above/all last week.
The main breakout level from June 1st and 2nd.
The large rising uptrend channel in white. This connects the March lows and the May lows.
Support Levels
4412, 4399-4402 (major), 4393, 4383-86 (major), 4374 (major), 4357-60, 4346 (major), 4336 (major), 4326, 4313, 4295 (major), 4285 (major), 4278, 4264-67 (major), 4250-55 (major)
Resistance Levels
4421 (major), 4432-35 (major), 4444, 4451, 4467-70 (major), 4477 (major), 4485, 4497-4502 (major), 4510, 4520, 4533 (major), 4541 (major), 4560 (major)
Trading Plan
Bulls are in play as long as we are above 4374. Shorter-term, the 4400 zone will be key. Bears will take over on the fail of 4372. I don’t chase, so I’d need to see a bounce or some type of reaction at 4373, then I’d be looking short perhaps 4368 for a move down to the 4346 zone.
Wrap Up
We had a big run yesterday and now price will need to setup again. I expect some complexity from here. My loose lean is that we test 4430ish then do some back-testing/chopping (perhaps 4404 etc) before trying higher. I’m short again if 4372 fails.
Disclosure: This is not financial advice and is for informational purposes only. Please consult a professional financial advisor before making any investment decisions.
S&P 500 Futures (ES) Looking to Extend Rally HigherShort term Elliott Wave View in E-mini S&P 500 Futures (ES) suggests the rally from 3.13.2023 low is in progress as a 5 waves impulse Elliott Wave structure. Up from 3.13 low, wave ((i)) ended at 4206.25 and dips in wave ((ii)) ended at 4062.25. The Index extends higher in wave ((iii)) towards 4493.75. Pullback in wave ((iv)) completed at 4368.59 with internal subdivision as a zigzag structure.
Down from wave ((iii)), wave i ended at 4410.5 and wave ii ended at 4444.75. Index then resumes lower in wave iii towards 4403.5, and rally in wave iv ended at 4430.75. The last leg lower wave v ended at 4393 which completed wave (a). Index then rally in wave (b) towards 4427 and wave (c) lower ended at 4368.59 which completed wave ((iv)) in higher degree. Index has turned higher in wave ((v)). Up from wave ((iv)), wave i ended at 4387.75 and pullback in wave ii ended at 4371.50. Index then resumes higher in wave iii towards 4424.75 and dips in wave iv ended at 4407. Near term, as far as pivot at 4368.59 low stays intact, expect Index to extend higher.
6/27: Daily Recap, Outlook, and Trading PlanRecap
Yesterday was another complex session, with the price largely ping-ponging between 4404 resistance and the 4370-80 support zone. The tight range will resolve with a good move, but the direction remains uncertain.
The Markets Overnight
🌏 Asia: Mostly up
🌍 Europe: Down slightly
🌎 US Index Futures: Up a bit
🛢 Crude Oil: Down
💵 Dollar: Down
🧐 Yields: Up a bit
🔮 Crypto: Up
World Headline
The Central Banking conference has started, and it will feature speeches from various global central bankers, including Jay Powell, over the next two days.
Key Structures
The channel in orange from the June highs - a bull flag with support at 4374 and resistance around 4444
The 4373 level - the most recent breakout zone from Monday, June 12th
The main breakout level from June 1st and 2nd - currently 4280-85
The large rising uptrend channel in white - support is currently 4280-85 and the most immediate resistance rail is 4530
Support Levels
4,382 (major), 4,373 (major), 4,366, 4,357, 4,336-4,341 (major), 4,328, 4,318, 4,300 (major), 4,293, 4,280-4,285 (major), 4,270-4,275 (major), 4,262, 4,247 (major)
Resistance Levels
4,393, 4,402 (major), 4,413 (major), 4,425-4,430 (major), 4,444, 4,460 (major), 4,472, 4,485 (major), 4,492, 4,502 (major), 4,512, 4,525-4,530 (major), 4,542, 4,550-4,555 (major)
Trading Plan
For longs, consider bidding directly at the 4382-73 support zone, or wait for a test of 4366 or a flush of yesterday's lows and recovery
For shorts, consider shorting at major resistance levels, particularly 4413 and 4425-30
Bulls need to clear 4402 to regain control
Bears will gain control if 4366 fails
Wrap Up
We remain in corrective mode with bears in short-term control until a strong resistance clears. Expect complex price action to continue, with the focus on nimble, level-to-level trading. The general lean is for a retest of 4402 and ultimately 4413 if 4372 holds, but another leg down if 4366 fails. React to the path that price chooses.
Disclosure: This is not financial advice and is for informational purposes only. Please consult a professional financial advisor before making any investment decisions.
6/26: Daily Recap, Outlook, and Trading PlanRecap
Last week, ES experienced a red week for the first time in five weeks, beginning a corrective leg. The dip was slow and labored, indicating a possible bull flag pattern. The market remains choppy and complex, with a focus on reacting to real-time trade plans rather than predicting trends.
The Markets Overnight
🌏 Asia: Down
🌍 Europe: Near unchanged
🌎 US Index Futures: Unchanged
🛢 Crude Oil: Up slightly
💵 Dollar: Down
🧐 Yields: Down a lot
🔮 Crypto: Down
World Headline
Despite the recent military turmoil over the weekend, it seems to have had little impact on the markets. However, traders remain vigilant in monitoring any developments in this potentially volatile situation.
Key Structures
Some core structures to watch include the possible bull flag pattern, the 4375ish level as the most recent breakout zone, the main breakout level from June 1st and 2nd, and the large rising uptrend channel in white.
Support Levels
4382, 4374, 4358, 4340, 4317, 4286, 4270-75
Resistance Levels
4411-13, 4422, 4452, 4467, 4485, 4495-4500, 4520-25, 4546, 4567-70
Trading Plan
For today, the bull case begins with watching support of the bull flag structure, with possible exposure at the reclaim of 4393. The bear case starts with the failure of 4374, requiring a strong bounce or two and a good period of acceptance before considering a short at 4371. In both cases, focus on level-to-level profit-taking and reacting to real-time trade plans.
Wrap Up
Today's session is expected to be complex, with a potential re-test of 4400 if the 4382-74 support zone holds. As long as this zone holds, the market could test 4413, 4421, and then try higher. If 4374 fails, it's time for another short. Stay focused on reacting to real-time trade plans and avoid trying to predict trends.
Disclosure: This is not financial advice and is for informational purposes only. Please consult a professional financial advisor before making any investment decisions.
6/23: Daily Recap, Outlook, and Trading PlanRecap
The market continued to follow the pattern of Mon-Wed weakness, Wednesday tight chop, and Thursday/Friday strength. This week, ES had a 30 point rally off the lows of the day, continuing the trend. However, there is still reason for caution as ES had a rare 3 red days in a row. In this newsletter, we will discuss the setup that produced yesterday's rally off 4393 support and provide the actionable trade plan for Friday.
The Markets Overnight
🌏 Asia: Down
🌍 Europe: Down a lot
🌎 US Index Futures: Down a lot
🛢 Crude Oil: Down
💵 Dollar: Up
🧐 Yields: Down a lot
🔮 Crypto: Up
World Headline
Recession fears to the forefront as global PMI data released overnight and this morning shows sharp economic contraction in the EU, Japan and Australia.
Key Structures
Some of the core big picture structures and levels being watched include the 4375ish level, the main breakout level from June 1st and 2nd, and the large rising uptrend channel in white. The uptrend from March is in play as long as we are above this channel.
Support Levels
4413(major), 4404 (major), 4380-82, 4374 (major), 4363, 4350, 4335-40 (major), 4325, 4317 (major), 4300-05 (major), 4280-85 (major), 4270 (major)
Resistance Levels
4421 (major), 4432, 4445 (major), 4454, 4467 (major), 4481-85 (major), 4492, 4508, 4518-20 (major), 4542 (major), 4550, 4565 (major), 4580 (major)
Trading Plan
For today, the rally continues above 4404, and we sell/short below. Longs are risky after a good rally, so picking spots carefully is essential. The most immediate supports down from here are 4413 and 4404, which is the critical "must hold" support for today. If we go into freefall, the levels marked as major are spots to try knife catches. For the bull case, as long as the 4404 blue uptrend channel holds, the bull case remains in play for Friday. For the bear case, it begins on the failure of 4404.
Wrap Up
In summary, as long as 4404 keeps holding, ES can base under 4421 then try to take a trip to 4432, then 4445. If 4404 fails, we start a sell to 4382, 4374, which is a magnet and major support/spot to try longs.
Disclosure: This is not financial advice and is for informational purposes only. Please consult a professional financial advisor before making any investment decisions.
6/22: Daily Recap, Outlook, and Trading PlanRecap
Yesterday was a high complexity session with hours of total chop around the key 4413 level, which acted as a magnet. ES has now put in 3 red days in a row for the first time since May 4th, and we are yet to see if the Thursday rally will bail out ES.
The Markets Overnight
🌏 Asia: Down but China closed for holiday
🌍 Europe: Down a lot
🌎 US Index Futures: Down a bit
🛢 Crude Oil: Down
💵 Dollar: Up slightly
🧐 Yields: Up
🔮 Crypto: Up
World Headline
Bank of England surprises markets with 50bps rate hike to counter persistent inflation.
Turkey raises their rate by 650bps to 15% from 8.5% reversing their unorthodox policy to battle runaway inflation.
Indian Prime Minister Modi arrives for his first U.S.state visit and will meet top CEOs at a White House state dinner.
Key Structures
Some core big picture structures and levels I am watching include 4432, the most recent breakout level from Thursday June 15th; 4413-4404, a battleground for three days now; 4372, the break-out level from Monday June 12th; and the main breakout zone from June 1st/2nd at 4282-77.
Support Levels
4413 (major), 4404, 4393 (major), 4382, 4372 (major), 4358, 4340-45 (major), 4331, 4317, 4310, 4302, 4282-77 (major), 4265-70 (major)
Resistance Levels
4421, 4432 (major), 4440-44 (major), 4453, 4465-68 (major), 4485 (major), 4502, 4515 (major), 4525, 4538-40 (major), 4558 (major), 4575 (major), 4585, 4600-05 (major), 4627 (major)
Trading Plan
The short-term bull case is extremely vulnerable and it would not shock me if the Thurs/Friday rally streak fails this week or is much more muted. The bear case today begins on the loss of yesterday's low. My very loose lean is as long as this pattern is in tact (with yesterday’s low holding) ES can try another push to 4440ish, then dip. Yesterday’s low fails, we start the move down. I’ll react to whatever price picks.
Wrap Up
Bulls put in a bullish failed breakdown pattern yesterday by losing yesterday's low and reclaiming. It ran to 4430 and failed, which is not good. This is the shot for bulls and failure of a bullish pattern is bearish.
Disclosure: This is not financial advice and is for informational purposes only. Please consult a professional financial advisor before making any investment decisions.
6/21: Daily Recap, Outlook, and Trading Plan
Recap
Last week's rally saw a timely exit of my remaining runner long from 4405, concluding a 90+ point long. This week began with highly complex, tactical action, and we got a rare short trigger on the fail of 4450, which played out nicely for a good 30+ points.
The Markets Overnight
🌏 Asia: Down
🌍 Europe: Down
🌎 US Index Futures: Down a bit
🛢 Crude Oil: Up slightly
💵 Dollar: Up a bit
🧐 Yields: Up
🔮 Crypto: Up strongly
World Headline
UK inflation data prints much hotter than expected raising expectations the Bank of England will continue to raise rates.
Key Structures
4430: The most recent breakout level from Thursday
4413: A stubborn support all last week
4272-80: The core breakout level from June 1st/2nd
Large white rising channel structure from the March low
Large red channel structure connecting the October low with the March low
Support Levels
4433 (major), 4423, 4413 (major), 4402, 4385 (major), 4374 (major), 4358, 4340 (major), 4329 (major), 4314-17, 4300, 4282, 4265-70 (major), 4257, 4247, 4230 (major)
Resistance Levels
4444, 4455-60 (major), 4468, 4482-85 (major), 4498-4500, 4510 (major), 4518, 4528, 4535-40 (major), 4551, 4565-70 (major), 4584, 4595-4600 (major), 4624 (major)
Trading Plan
Bull Case: Reclaim 4413 — must hold 4402. Range bound between 4413 - 4430.
Bear Case: Watch for a false breakdown of 4404 — on strong conviction/followthrough, it's 4385, 4374.
Wrap Up
ES is likely in for some tactical range building now, but as long as 4430 holds, it is set up to test 4455-60, then 4480s, where another dip is likely before breakout. If we sell today, 4413 must hold, or shorts trigger.
Disclosure: This is not financial advice and is for informational purposes only. Please consult a professional financial advisor before making any investment decisions.
S&P 500 ETF (SPY) Elliott Wave Sequence Remains BullishShort term, SPY favors higher in impulse Elliott wave sequence started from 5.04.2023 low and expect further strength to continue in wave 3. SPY finished wave 1 at 417.62 high started from 3.13.2023 low. It placed ((i)) at 402.49 high and ((ii)) at 389.33 low as 0.618 Fibonacci retracement. It finished ((iii)) of 1 at 416.06 high and ((iv)) at 403.78 low. Finally, it ended ((v)) at 417.62 high as wave 1. It corrected lower in 2, ended at 403.74 low as 0.382 Fibonacci retracement of wave 1. Above there, it favors higher in wave 3 and expect further strength to continue before correcting in 4. Within wave 3, it placed ((i)) at 420.87 high and ((ii)) at 409.88 low as 0.618 Fibonacci retracement of ((i)).
Above 409.88 low, it favors higher in ((iii)) of 3. It placed (i) at 422.99 high and (ii) at 416.22 low. It finished (iii) at 443.90 high, in which it ended i at 429.67 high, ii at 425.75 low, iii at 439.06 high, iv at 433.59 low and v at 443.90 high as (iii). It proposed ended (iv) at 435.03 low. Within (iv), it placed at 440.01 low, b at 443.25 high and c in zigzag at 435.03 low as 3 swing reaction lower. Above there, it favors higher in (v) to finish ((iii)) of 3. As long as price remain above 409.88 low of ((ii)), it expects at least one more high. Alternate view can be ended ((iii)) at last high and correcting in ((iv)) as double correction, which may extend lower below 435.03. In that case, it can find support at next extreme areas before upside resumes.
6/20: Long Weekend Recap, Outlook, and Trading PlanRecap
The past week saw an impressive rally, with a 100-point squeeze on Thursday leading to a 190-point rally throughout the week. This marks the fourth week where the Thursday or Friday rally tendency has been tracked. As expected, Friday was OPEX day, leading to a messy, rangebound chop.
The Markets Overnight
🌏 Asia: Down
🌍 Europe: Mixed
🌎 US Index Futures: Down a bit
🛢 Crude Oil: Down
💵 Dollar: Up a bit
🧐 Yields: Down slightly
🔮 Crypto: Down slightly
World Headline
Both sides expressed positive sentiments following US Secretary of State Blinken's China trip and meeting with President Xi. However, Chinese stocks are experiencing a decline due to the PBOC implementing monetary easing measures that were more moderate than anticipated.
Key Structures
Some core big-picture structures and levels to watch include 4430, the most recent breakout level from Thursday; 4400, a stubborn support all last week; 4272-80, the core breakout level from June 1st/2nd; and the large white rising channel structure from the March low, with support now at 4260.
Support Levels
4455-50 (major), 4431 (major), 4421, 4400-05 (major), 4381 (major), 4371 (major), 4356, 4340 (major), 4328, 4317, 4294, 4272-80 (major), 4260 (major)
Resistance Levels
4466 (major), 4477, 4484 (major), 4492, 4503 (major), 4515, 4524 (major), 4535 (major), 4550-55 (major), 4570 (major), 4582, 4590-95 (major)
Trading Plan
The plan for the upcoming week is to remain cautious with longs and focus on failed breakdowns. Key supports to watch today include 4450 and 4431, with 4431 being the most recent breakout point that needs to backtest. In the bull case, defend 4450, perhaps with a quick flush to 4430 at the lowest, and then base build between 4450 and 4484. In the bear case, the failure of 4450 begins the short setup, with a move down to 4430 and potentially deeper if it fails.
Wrap Up
After a strong rally, pullback is not surprising, with a potential dip to 4430 on the spike down. The general lean is for ES to defend these levels and base more under 4484 to set up another push to 4505 and 4524 later in the week. Keep an eye on the key support and resistance levels and adjust the trading plan accordingly.
Disclosure: This is not financial advice and is for informational purposes only. Please consult a professional financial advisor before making any investment decisions.
6/16: Daily Recap, Outlook, and Trading PlanRecap
In the past few weeks, traders have witnessed the power of simple technical analysis in cutting through the noise and negativity, leading to account-changing growth. The market has been on a strong rally, with every intraday dip being bought. Yesterday saw another melt-up, and while a pullback is expected soon, the focus remains on reacting level to level and watching for support failures as a warning that the trend may be changing.
The Markets Overnight
🌏 Asia: Up
🌍 Europe: Up
🌎 US Index Futures: Up slightly
🛢 Crude Oil: Up
💵 Dollar: Up slightly
🧐 Yields: Up
🔮 Crypto: Mixed
World Headline
China rallies on expectation a major stimulus program is imminent.
EU CPI holds steady, inline with expectations.
Quad witching today and US markets closed Monday.
Key Structures
The large white rising channel structure from the March low, with support at 4245 and resistance at 4467.
The core breakout level from June 1st/2nd at 4274-84.
4390-95, which was the Tuesday low, the Wednesday FOMC low, and yesterday's low.
4430, which is the most recent breakout level from Wednesday.
Support Levels
4467 (major)-4462, 4450-53 (major), 4440, 4430-33 (major), 4419, 4413 (major), 4395-4400 (major), 4385, 4368 (major), 4351 (major), 4338-42 (major), 4329, 4318-20 (major)
Resistance Levels
4477 (major), 4484, 4502 (major), 4515 (major), 4524, 4530-35 (major), 4545 (major), 4561, 4571, 4585 (major)
Trading Plan
The next targets in line are 4503 followed by 4515.
The new support levels are established at 4477 and 4467-62.
Bears: 4430 needs to fail at least for any significant pullback.
Wrap Up
Today is OPEX day, which is notoriously difficult for trading. After a strong week of gains, it's important to be cautious with new long positions and to focus on reacting to the market's movements. The easy money has been made, and traders should be prepared for a pullback or extended consolidation phase. The focus remains on reacting level to level and watching for support failures as a warning that the trend may be changing.
Disclosure: This is not financial advice and is for informational purposes only. Please consult a professional financial advisor before making any investment decisions.
6/15: Daily Recap, Outlook, and Trading PlanRecap
Yesterday's FOMC session contained the typical trap, but ultimately the dip was bought, continuing the impressive uptrend we've seen in recent weeks. The rally demonstrates the power of simple technical analysis and the importance of holding runners. We have had a massive rally, and it would not be surprising to see ES get some complex rangebound trading, which is much needed.
The Markets Overnight
🌏 Asia: Up
🌍 Europe: Down
🌎 US Index Futures: Down
🛢 Crude Oil: Up
💵 Dollar: Unchanged
🧐 Yields: Down
🔮 Crypto: Down
World Headline
FOMC holds rates steady and signals two more hikes this year.
Chinese stocks up as People's Bank of China eases momentary policy.
European Central Bank raises rate 25bps.
Key Structures
The large white rising channel from the March low is the "macro uptrend channel" and controls the broader leg up since the March low. Support is now at 4245, and immediate resistance is at 4462. The 4275-80 yellow trendline represents the breakout of both the February and May 2023 highs. The green channel structure with 4366 resistance is now the most immediate back-test level. The 4385-90 zone remains key support.
Support Levels
4413 (major), 4403, 4385-90 (major), 4366 (major), 4357, 4343-4338 (major), 4327, 4315-17 (major), 4290, 4275-80 (major), 4263, 4245 (major), 4230, 4215-20 (major), 4197, 4175-80, 4166 (major), 4158, 4141, 4123 (major)
Resistance Levels
4422, 4430 (major), 4438, 4445-50 (major), 4462 (major), 4477, 4496, 4505-4510 (major), 4518, 4530-35 (major), 4540, 4570 (major), 4595, 4615, 4635-40 (major)
Trading Plan
Watch for failed breakdowns at 4413, 4404, and 4385-90, which are the immediate supports below. Resistances at 4445-50 and 4462 could provide reaction spots for counter-trend shorting. Bulls remain in control as long as we are above the June 1st breakout level, with a 4413 key mid-pivot. Sells occur under 4385.
Wrap Up
The general likelihood for today is that we base build in the 4390-4430 range, with a 4413 key mid-pivot. This sets up a push up the levels to 4438, 4445-50, 4462. Sells occur under 4385.
Disclosure: This is not financial advice and is for informational purposes only. Please consult a professional financial advisor before making any investment decisions.
6/14: Daily Recap, Outlook, and Trading PlanRecap
Yesterday's CPI report led to a 40-point upside squeeze after an initial flush. The first move was a trap, followed by a flush down to 4380 support, recovery, and then a squeeze up. Since June 1st, ES has been in a "buy all dips phase" with a 140-point increase. However, FOMC day is today, which may bring more complexity and difficulty for traders.
The Markets Overnight
🌏 Asia: Mixed
🌍 Europe: Up
🌎 US Index Futures: Up slightly
🛢 Crude Oil: Down
💵 Dollar: Down
🧐 Yields: Down
🔮 Crypto: Up a bit
World Headline
FOMC Rate Statement and Jay Powell press conference.
Key Structures
Large white rising channel structure from the March low, with support at 4245 and resistance at 4455
Core breakout level from June 1st/2nd at 4277-82
4385, the most recent breakout level
Support Levels
4408-05 (major), 4385-90 (major), 4367 (major), 4358, 4344 (major), 4338, 4317-23 (major), 4305, 4294 (major), 4276-80 (major), 4264, 4255, 4240-45 (major), 4230, 4215 (major), 4194, 4175-80 (major), 4157, 4142, 4125 (major)
Resistance Levels
4429 (major), 4438-4440, 4458 (major), 4470, 4486, 4503 (major), 4525 (major), 4540-45 (major), 4570 (major), 4591, 4600, 4615, 4640 (major)
Trading Plan
📈 Bulls: 4440, 4458 with 4408 as support
📉 Bears: 4385 triggers downside
Watch for false breakdowns/breakouts:
4440, 4458 next up as long as 4408 keeps holding. 4385=post FOMC sell trigger
If ES can base above 4408, target 4429, 4438, and ultimately 4458
If 4385 fails, consider short at 4382 for a sell to 4366
Wrap Up
FOMC day is today, which may bring more complexity and difficulty for traders. Focus on false breakdowns/breakouts, and watch the key structures and support and resistance levels for potential moves. Be prepared for unpredictable action after the FOMC meeting and adjust trading strategies accordingly.
Disclosure: This is not financial advice and is for informational purposes only. Please consult a professional financial advisor before making any investment decisions.
SPX Favors Rally With Bullish Momentum & Remain SupportedShort term, SPX favors upside in wave ((iii)) of 3 started from 4048.28 low of 5.04.2023 and expect to remain supported in pullback. It is nesting as the part of impulse Elliott wave structure and favors further upside. It placed 2 of (3) at 3838.24 low and ((i)) of 3 at 4186.92 high. Within wave ((i)), it favored ended (i) at 4039.49 high and (ii) at 3914.24 low as 0.618 Fibonacci retracement. It finished (iii) at 4162.57 high and (iv) at 4049.35 low. Finally, it finished (v) at 4186.92 high as ((i)) of 3. It retraced in ((ii)) at 4048.28 low as 0.382 Fibonacci retracement of ((i)). Above there, it favors higher in ((iii)) of 3 and expect few more highs to finish it before starts ((iv)) pullback.
It placed (i) of ((iii)) at 4212.91 high and (ii) at 4103.98 low. (ii) was corrected 0.618 Fibonacci retracement of (i). Currently, it favors higher in (iii) of ((iii)) as extended Elliott wave sequence. It placed i of (iii) at 4217 high, ii at 4166.15 low. Currently, it favors higher in iii of (iii) and can see further upside to finish it before pullback starts in iv of (iii). It expect few more highs and can extend between 4398 -4614 area to finish ((iii)) before pullback starts in ((iv)) of 3.
6/13: Daily Recap, Outlook, and Trading PlanRecap
The SPX has continued its routine Thursday/Friday rally, with the market rallying 80+ points on Thursday. This trend has been observed for the past 4 weeks, and it is expected that this week may be the last time we see it due to the upcoming CPI and FOMC events. Yesterday was another straightforward trend day, with a classic trend day in play. Today is CPI day, and as long-time readers know, these days can be volatile, unpredictable, and filled with traps.
The Markets Overnight
🌏 Asia: Up
🌍 Europe: Up
🌎 US Index Futures: Up
🛢 Crude Oil: Up strongly
💵 Dollar: Down
🧐 Yields: Down a lot
🔮 Crypto: Up
World Headline
CPI inflation declines, printing inline to lower than expectations.
Key Structures
The 4285-75 zone, representing the February 2023 highs and the May "double top". This is the most recent "breakout zone" and is the zone bulls will want to defend on any sells.
The white rising channel, which has been the core uptrend channel from the March low. Support is now 4230-35, and resistance is 4450.
The 4366-68 level, which is the most recent high we broke out from yesterday and is now support.
Support Levels
4366 (major), 4357, 4345 (major), 4338, 4328, 4314-17 (major), 4298, 4286 (major), 4277, 4263 (major), 4247-50, 4230-35 (major), 4209-11 (major), 4192, 4176 (major), 4165, 4158, 4140-42 (major), 4125, 4115, 4100-05 (major), 4085-90 (major), 4068, 4053 (major)
Resistance Levels
4380-85 (major), 4390, 4405 (major), 4416, 4426-30 (major), 4437, 4452 (major), 4472, 4495-4500 (major), 4515, 4525-30 (major), 4540, 4565-70 (major), 4589, 4613, 4635 (major)
Trading Plan
Bulls: 4416, 4425-30 in play next.
Bears: 4380 fails, we see 4366, then 4344
Since it is CPI day, it is advised to be cautious about bidding levels directly and wait for failed breakdowns for any long entries. 4366 is the first support down, but for CPI, it's safer to wait for it to flush then recover. If the channel fails, it would not be surprising to see ES test 4085, but as always, take it level by level and one intraday trade at a time.
Wrap Up
With the CPI and upcoming FOMC events, the market is expected to be volatile and unpredictable. It is important to size down, not over-trade, and watch for failed breakdowns. Be prepared for anything and trade cautiously during these challenging sessions.
Disclosure: This is not financial advice and is for informational purposes only. Please consult a professional financial advisor before making any investment decisions.
6/12: Daily Recap, Outlook, and Trading PlanRecap
As mentioned in previous newsletters, we have observed a solid day-of-week tendency in ES, with weakness from Monday to Wednesday, followed by Thursday and Friday squeezes. This pattern has held up for 8 of the last 10 weeks, including last Friday. However, last week we expected this to happen, and with both CPI and FOMC, we anticipate one of the most volatile weeks of 2023.
The Markets Overnight
🌏 Asia: Up
🌍 Europe: Up
🌎 US Index Futures: Up
🛢 Crude Oil: Down a lot
💵 Dollar: Down slightly
🧐 Yields: Down
🔮 Crypto: Down slightly
World Headline
Markets look ahead to tomorrow’s CPI inflation report and Wednesday’s FOMC meeting.
Key Structures
The core setup we have been observing is the failed breakdown, which preceded the 60+ point Thursday/Friday squeeze. This setup is essential to learn, as it precedes almost all major moves.
Support Levels
4344-42 (major), 4338, 4327 (major), 4315-18 (major), 4303, 4290-85 (major), 4265-70 (major), 4258, 4248 (major), 4236 (major)
Resistance Levels
4353-55, 4366-68 (Major), 4380-85 (major), 4391, 4400 (major), 4407, 4415, 4431-33 (major), 4447 (major), 4454, 4464, 4483, 4491 (major)
Trading Plan
📈 Bulls will generally want to hold 4344-42 and base above, with 4327 being the lowest on any spikes down. This will set up a retest of 4366-68. Choppy action is likely today, as always. A 4315 fail would be considered the trigger down to 4285.
📉 A 4315 fail would be considered the trigger down to 4285 for the bears.
Wrap Up
As we approach one of the most volatile weeks of 2023, it is crucial to put away any predicting mindset and fluidly react to the levels and setups. Stay sharp!
Disclosure: This is not financial advice and is for informational purposes only. Please consult a professional financial advisor before making any investment decisions.
6/9: Daily Recap, Outlook, and Trading PlanRecap
Yesterday, we were closely watching the rally in the S&P 500 futures with a target of 4304 from the 4268 support level. The market held strong at 4268 and managed to reach 4303, just shy of our target. Throughout the night, the market has been basing around this level, indicating a potential major breakout point.
The Markets Overnight
🌏 Asia: Up
🌍 Europe: Down
🌎 US Index Futures: Mostly up
🛢 Crude Oil: Down slightly
💵 Dollar: Up slightly
🧐 Yields: Up
🔮 Crypto: Up
World Headline
The bear market ends as the S&P500 gains 20% from the October low.
Key Structures
Major breakout point at 4303
Support Levels
4288, 4283
Resistance Levels
4312, 4320
Trading Plan
📈 Bulls 4303
Our plan for today is to closely monitor the 4288 and 4283 support levels. As long as 4283 holds, we can expect a break in play towards 4312 and potentially 4320 or higher.
📉 Bears 4283
4283 fails to hold, we may see a retest of the 4271 level.
Wrap Up
In conclusion, the market is currently at a critical juncture with a potential major breakout point around 4303. Keep a close eye on the support levels and adjust your trading plan accordingly. As always, trade with caution and stay disciplined.
Disclosure: This is not financial advice and is for informational purposes only. Please consult a professional financial advisor before making any investment decisions.
6/8: Daily Recap, Outlook, and Trading PlanRecap
In the past few days, we have seen a pattern of weakness from Monday to Wednesday and massive strength on Thursday and Friday. This cycle has played out for 7 of the last 9 weeks. If this pattern persists for another week, this week will be the last as next week is both CPI and FOMC, which should be one of the most volatile, complex weeks of 2023 and will see 50+ point setups for both bulls and bears.
The Markets Overnight
🌏 Asia: Mixed
🌍 Europe: Up slightly
🌎 US Index Futures: Up a bit
🛢 Crude Oil: Down
💵 Dollar: Up
🧐 Yields: Up a bit
🔮 Crypto: Up
🌏 World Headline
The Bank of Canada's sudden rate hike unsettles the markets and raises the likelihood that rates will be raised at the FOMC meeting next week due to strong consumer spending and persistent inflation.
Key Structures
The 4243 level
The blue broadening formation
Resistance is now 4317-23, and support today will be 4250-55
If this pattern breaks out, the next magnet becomes 4343
Support Levels
4268, 4251-56 (major), 4243 (major), 4235, 4222 (major), 4213, 4200-05 (major), 4191 (major), 4182, 4175, 4167 (major)
Resistance Levels
4278-80 (major), 4288, 4304 (major), 4308, 4317 (major), 4325 (major), 4332, 4343 (major), 4356 (major), 4367, 4373, 4387 (major), 4395-4400 (major), 4411
📖 Trading Plan
📈 Bulls 4268 is support
Reclaim 4280 and consider longs at 4283. Level to level profit taking as always, but this could eventually make its way back to 4303, dip again, base more, then try a break up.
📉 Bears begin on the fail of 4268
Under 4280 bulls should be on guard. 4268 fail from here would then trigger downside to 4255.
Wrap Up
In summary, we are closing right at a decision point here, so it difficult to provide any lean. One could argue that we can sell down to perhaps 4255, 4243, then try a bounce out. If 4280 reclaims, we head up directly. Have a great trading day!
Disclosure: This is not financial advice and is for informational purposes only. Please consult a professional financial advisor before making any investment decisions.
6/7: Daily Recap, Outlook, and Trading PlanRecap
In yesterday’s trading session, we saw the ES continue its choppy mode after hitting the 4280 target last week. The market has followed a pattern of Thursday/Friday rallies followed by Monday/Tuesday chop for the past three weeks. We had a 20-point rally off the 4267 buy zone and spent much of the day chopping under 4290. With another significant late-week squeeze potentially incoming, focusing on catching one or two level-to-level pieces of the action each day is essential and avoiding introducing bias into intraday trading.
The Markets Overnight
🌏 Asia: Mixed
🌍 Europe: Near unchanged
🌎 US Index Futures: Up a bit
🛢 Crude Oil: Up
💵 Dollar: Down a bit
🧐 Yields: Up slightly
🔮 Crypto: Down
Key Structures
Last Friday's breakout origin point at 4243, which serves as a significant level for bulls to maintain control.
The blue broadening formation, which has been the core macro structure guiding the market for the past 2+ months.
4317 resistance and 4261 support.
Support Levels
4284, 4274-76 (major), 4261 (major), 4243-47 (major), 4227 (major), 4221 (major), 4213, 4204, 4194-4198 (major), 4188 (major), 4177 (major), 4166 (major), 4155, 4137, 4120 (major), 4094-4100 (major)
Resistance Levels
4288 (major), 4303, 4315-17 (major), 4329 (major), 4340, 4353 (major), 4361, 4367 (major), 4382-86 (major), 4395, 4400 (major)
Trading Plan
📈 Bulls 4288-4284 is support. Next minor up is 4315, then 4317
📉 Bears begin on the fail of 4284. Next minor down is 4274 and 4261
Wrap Up
In summary, the market is still in chop mode, and everything between 4275-4290 is noise. As long as 4275 holds, we can push to 4303, 4315-17, and potentially higher. A sell-off may occur if 4272-75 fails. Stay focused on catching one or two level-to-level pieces of the action each day and avoid introducing bias into intraday trading.
Disclosure: This is not financial advice and is for informational purposes only. Please consult a professional financial advisor before making any investment decisions.
6/6: Daily Recap, Outlook, and Trading PlanRecap
In the past few days, we've seen an extraordinary 110-point long and one of the more significant trades of the year. We are now up 120+ points in two days, and the pullback risk is high. Yesterday's action was highly trappy and complex, fitting the description of a post-trend period. We are now in a strong uptrend, which will remain the case for the foreseeable future.
The Markets Overnight
🌏 Asia: Mostly down
🌍 Europe: Down slightly
🌎 US Index Futures: Down slightly
🛢 Crude Oil: Down
💵 Dollar: Up
🧐 Yields: Up a bit
🔮 Crypto: Down
Key Structures
The 4243-37 area is the first and foremost zone to watch, acting as a loose support zone.
The blue broadening formation pattern has now broken out and is currently acting as support in the 4280-90 range.
The new pink triangle pattern would be one to watch, but support must fail at 4200 for bears to take control.
Support Levels
4278-80 (major)
4267 (major)
4254
4243-37 (major)
4222 (major)
4213
4204
4190-95 (major)
4176
4171 (major)
4161
4154 (major)
Resistance Levels
4288 (major)
4307
4317 (major)
4326 (major)
4337
4347-52 (major)
4358
4366
4380-85 (major)
4400-4405 (major)
Trading Plan
📈 4267, and 4245-37 are support zones.
💪 Bulls must defend the 4243 zone to keep the direct breakout from last week in play.
📉 Bears' case begins on the fail of 4267. Watch for possible short-side reactions at 4317 major resistance.
Wrap Up
We are in a post-rally chop phase, and our focus should be on reacting to the plan outlined above. As long as 4278-80 holds (4267 on any quick flushes down), we can retest 4307, 4317, and then perhaps try another dip. A failure at 4278 is the first warning for bulls, with a 4267 fail triggering a sell down to 4243.
Disclosure: This is not financial advice and is for informational purposes only. Please consult a professional financial advisor before making any investment decisions.
6/5: Daily Recap, Outlook, and Trading PlanRecap
In this week's newsletter, we go over the recent market parabolic squeeze and how a classic failed breakdown setup caused it. With a move of 100 points, this produced one of the best trades of 2023. We also stress the significance of runners in catching these explosive moves and how they lessen FOMO and the need to chase/over-trade. The purple triangle, which served as the foundation for the initial rally to 4240, has been essential in determining the market's course.
The Markets Overnight
🌏 Asia: Mostly up
🌍 Europe: Up a bit
🌎 US Index Futures: Mixed
🛢 Crude Oil: Up strongly
💵 Dollar: Up
🧐 Yields: Up
🔮 Crypto: Down
Key Structures
The purple triangle was the foundation for the initial rally to 4240 and has been essential in determining the market's course. The blue broadening formation has also been an important target for price action.
Support Levels
Significant levels of support include 4281-85, 4262, 4241-37, 4187-4192, and 4176.
Resistance Levels
Significant levels of resistance include 4304–4306, 4315, 4350, 4366, and 4382.
Trading Plan
Exercise caution when trading in stretched positions and put more emphasis on being responsive than proactive. At support levels, keep an eye out for potential long entries, but be cautious of rug pull risks. At levels of significant resistance, take into account short entries, but be aware that counter-trending entails greater risks.
💪 4282 - 4285 is support
📈 Next minor is 4304, then 4315
📉 Pullback if 4280 fails, then 4262
Wrap Up
Following a significant rally, it's crucial to approach the market cautiously and concentrate on responding to price action rather than attempting to predict the next move. However, it's important to be aware of the risks associated with trading in these extended market conditions. Key support and resistance levels offer potential entry points for both long and short trades.
Disclosure: This is not financial advice and is for informational purposes only. Please consult a professional financial advisor before making any investment decisions.
