$SPX Futurades liquidity entry modelSP:SPX Futurates liquidity entry model. No active signal. Signal is used to buy CALLS/PUTS 6 months expiration. This is addition to my NYSE:ES trades and at times I may be long NYSE:ES while holding SPX puts.
Es_f
Bulls Maintain Control as Market Holds Near Breakout LevelsThe market closed higher today. The move higher was driven by a number of factors, including stronger economic data and expectations that the Federal Reserve will not raise interest rates in June. However, the looking debt deadline is not in the review mirror yet.
Key Points
The market broke out from the tightest range seen since April 2017.
The next level of resistance for ES_F is at 4175. If ES_F can break above this level, it could open the door to further gains towards 4200.
The next major economic event for ES_F is the Federal Reserve's meeting on June 13-14. The Fed is not expected to raise interest rates.
Bull Case
As long as the 4155-47 breakout back-test area holds, bulls are in control. If it fails, bulls will want to recover quickly from 4135 support.
Generally though, as long as that backtest holds, bulls are in control and we likely chop, bull flag, then continue to push to 4195 megaphone resistance.
Possible pullback there then on to break the May highs.
In terms of spots to add on strength, I will be watching for bull flag formation.
We have the flag pole with todays rally, and the flagging would occur under 4178-80 and above 4166.
If this flag can develop overnight, I may consider buying it in the morning.
Bear Case
Several levels need to fail for there to be any short-able bear case.
The first warning, though is the 4147 breakout back-test.
4125 support needs to crack. However, a breakout short, perhaps 4122, to work down the levels to 4100 and lower.
Final Thoughts
The market is in a bullish trend, but it is important to be aware of the risks. The market could pull back in the coming days, especially if the debt ceiling isn’t raised, and it is important to be prepared for this possibility.
Disclosure: This is not financial advice and is for informational purposes only. Please consult a professional financial advisor before making any investment decisions.
$ES still a diamond top if you keep redrawing lines ($Sarcasm)NYSE:ES still a diamond top if you keep redrawing lines ($Sarcasm)
After-Market Analysis: Patience in Play Amid ES_F's Narrow RangeWe witnessed a choppy session today, mainly pinned at 4135. The market fluctuated between 4155-4130, indicating the possibility of a breakout pushing up the levels to megaphone resistance. The bearish case will start with the failure of 4131.
Today's session was marked by a continued consolidation within a narrow range for ES_F. The market has been in a tight range for the past week, with closing prices consistently falling within 1% of the 4130 zone. This is one of the tightest consolidations we've seen in years, and it's a consequence of the May 4th/5th rally and the options expiry week.
We saw the ES_F put in a notable 6 daily candles stacked tightly side-by-side in approximately a 60-point range, likely the tightest range since the March or January lows. This could potentially be a trap for newer traders who are always seeking the rare "big home run move". Instead, the market seems to be tactically playing between levels, resulting in failed breakdowns to trap chasers.
Resistance Levels:
4127, 4135 (major), 4142, 4148, 4152 (major), 4166, 4173-75 (major), 4188-90 (megaphone resistance, major), 4197, 4205 (major), 4220 (major), 4232, 4240-42 (major - large broadening formation resistance), 4256, 4266, 4273-76 (major), 4282, 4290-92 (major), 4305 (major).
Support Levels:
4118 (major), 4111, 4100-4105 (major - broadening formation support), 4079-83 (major), 4070, 4057, 4040-44 (major - broadening formation support), 4025, 4020 (major), 3999, 3990 (major), 3967-72, 3956 (major).
Key Structures:
The small white broadening formation with support at 4105 and resistance at 4187-90.
The larger blue broadening formation pattern with support at 4040 and resistance around 4235.
The purple rising channel structure with support around 4136-31.
Bonds:
On the bond front, the yield on the 2-year, 10-year, and 30-year Treasuries showed a marginal increase today. This could be a significant factor to watch for in the coming days.
Trading Plan:
In the evening hours, I opened a short trade here at 4133 resistance. For any long positions, a sustained break above 4133-35 will be needed to trigger the upside once again. A false break will trigger back to downside support.
Final Thoughts:
In summary, while the market's current state might be frustrating for those seeking the "big move," it's crucial to remain patient and tactical. The market's gyrations test our resilience and adaptability as traders.
Disclosure: This is not financial advice and is for informational purposes only. Please consult a professional financial advisor before making any investment decisions.
Chop or Pop? Tackle This Week's Tricky Market On $ES_F & $SPYIntraday Update
Coming into this week, ES tested support at 4112 Friday with a double bottom. So far it’s been a choppy start to the OPEX week, with key support at 4132-29. There have been six round trips between ~4150s and 4120s, and we observed good follow-through in the market. 4155 just rejected down to 4136.
Last Week
We saw the market consolidating with 4165 resistance and 4115 support, as well as range expansion and complex trading patterns. The big picture context is a 1.5-month-long "megaphone" pattern, while the shorter term shows a smaller megaphone pattern with a 60% upside breakout bias. We also discussed the importance of level acceptance and not trading constantly in our trade recap.
Plan for the Week
Our focus this week is on navigating a tactical chop range between 4112 and 4181. The bull case for Monday is to defend 4129 and aim for 4145, 4158, and high 4170s. The bear case for Monday involves a loss of 4129 as the first warning, with a crack of 4112 for a real selloff. Expect tactical, trappy trading overall.
Economic Events
April Retail Sales: A potential downside surprise may affect rate pause and rate cut expectations.
April Industrial Production: Expected to be flat; a higher-than-expected reading may support the Fed's hawkish stance.
May Philadelphia Fed Manufacturing Survey: An above-expectations reading is seen as inflationary.
Bonds Update
2-year Treasury yield at 4%, little changed
10-year Treasury yield advanced to 3.494%
30-year Treasury yield climbed 5.5 basis points to 3.831%
Support Levels
4129-32, 4118 (major), 4112 (major - broadening formation support), 4106, 4099 (major), 4089, 4078-81 (major), 4061, 4040-4045 (major), 4031, 4017-20 (major), 4005, 3980-85 (major), 3967 (major), 3950-54, 3937 (major).
Resistance Levels
4147, 4158 (major), 4172-75 (major), 4180, 4191 (major), 4205, 4212, 4217, 4227 (major), 4236 (major - broadening formation resistance), 4243, 4252, 4270-75 (major), 4286. 4158 as well as 4172-75 are decent zones to look for reactions as is 4191.
Summary
In summary, the market experienced consolidation and complex trading patterns last week. This week, our focus is on navigating the tactical chop range between 4112 and 4181, with both bull and bear case scenarios in play. Economic events, such as April Retail Sales and Industrial Production, may impact decisions on rate pauses and cuts.
Disclosure: This is not financial advice and is for informational purposes only. Please consult a professional financial advisor before making any investment decisions.
$ES likelihood of further downside increasesES daily chart looks a little different from SPX daily chart......ES looks way more bearish and SPX is only slightly bearish......if you see on the chart, we have confirmed resistance on the daily that rejected price 3 days in a row. We also have confirmed support that held price 2 days in a row but gave way big time today.... next week should be a down week IMO
April's CPI Surprise: Can Bulls Charge Forward For Now?SPDR S&P 500 FUTURES ( CME_MINI:ESM2023 ) & ETF ( AMEX:SPY ) - Market Update - 10/10/23
The April Consumer Price Index (CPI) report showed a 0.4% increase last month, driven by rising shelter, used vehicle, and gas prices. This increase met Wall Street expectations, and the annual inflation rate of 4.9% came in slightly below estimates, providing hope for a lower trend. For workers, real average hourly earnings, adjusted for inflation, rose 0.1% for the month but were still down 0.5% from a year ago. These CPI figures provided a stick save for ES_F.
A massive 60-point range started with a failed breakout at 4176, and ES_F tested the overnight low, flushing to the 4114 support level. An intraday bull flag formed at the 4118-4123 support zone, with bulls getting long at the 4129-4134 range. A broadening formation (megaphone) pattern emerged at 4114, with resistance at 4176-4180. The rising uptrend channel from the March 2023 low is highlighted in yellow, establishing new support at 4134.
Bull Case:
On any pullback, look for re-entry to go long at the 4145-4146 level. If we move above 4145, the new magnet zone is 4176-4181. The 4166 support level is also a good magnet.
Bear Case:
On any pullback, look for re-entry to go short below 4134.
Economic Factors:
Keep an eye on the PPI-Final Demand and Jobless Claims data released at 8:30AM (EST) today.
Bonds:
The US10Y supports the bull case on the 4-hour chart with a new lower low. A symmetrical triangle pattern with a 5-day rising support range is visible, extending from 3.0308% to 3.311%.
Support Levels:
4134-32 (major), 4122, 4114-16 (major), 4111, 4105, 4092, 4082-78 (major), 4061, 4048 (major - broadening formation support), 4037, 4020-22 (major), 4011 (major), 3997, 3984 (major), 3978, 3952 (major), 3942, 3935 (major), 3904 (major), 3892 (major)
Resistance Levels:
4146 (major), 4154, 4166, 4176-81 (major, broadening formation support), 4188-92 (major), 4200, 4210, 4218-20 (major), 4230 (major - broadening formation support), 4243-46 (major), 4256
Final Thoughts:
As the market continues to digest April's CPI surprise, traders should remain vigilant and watch key support and resistance levels. The bull case still has potential, but it is crucial to monitor economic factors, such as PPI-Final Demand and Jobless Claims data, as well as bond market developments.
Not Investment Advice:
Please note that the information and strategies shared in this newsletter are for informational and educational purposes only. They should not be considered investment advice, nor should they be used as a basis for making any investment decisions. Always consult a financial professional before making any investment decisions, and ensure you understand the risks involved in trading and investing.
Spot the Shift: Is Market Compression Leading to Big Move?SPDR S&P 500 FUTURES ( CME_MINI:ESM2023 ) & ETF ( AMEX:SPY ) - Market Update - 10/12/23
The trading session was a showcase of failed breakdowns. This reaffirmed that most local lows and highs are set with these failures. A key takeaway is that more trading doesn’t necessarily lead to more profits. The strategy that has proved most profitable is consistently stacking level-to-level gains and then getting out.
As we've observed nearly every day since March, we're in a “buy dips regime” technically. This perspective has simplified trading for the past two months, as every 1-2 day dip has been bought. This past week, after a robust 100+ point vertical rally, the market has entered a consolidation phase, building a range with resistance at 4165 and support at around 4115. This range consolidation led to one of the tightest range weeks of 2023, with four daily candles stacking side by side.
Market observers and traders are anticipating a big trend move due to the current compression in the market, which is likely to lead to expansion.
In recent weeks, it has been crucial to trade from level to level, making terms like “bullish” or “bearish” less relevant for short-term traders. We've been in a 1.5 month consolidation within a strong bull trend, rallying 350 points from March 13th to mid-April and consolidating ever since. Current support and resistance levels lie at 4045 and 4230, respectively.
Bull Case
Holding key support levels is required for the bull case, with the potential for a breakout if these are maintained.
Bear Case
The bear case requires a fail of 4123-21, indicating potential for shorts. We are currently in a very tight, tactical range with low predictability.
Economic Factors
Turning our attention to economic factors, the producer price index, a measure of prices for final demand goods and services, increased 0.2%, which was less than the Dow Jones estimate for 0.3%. The headline PPI rose just 2.3%, down from 2.7% in March, marking the lowest reading since January 2021.
Bonds
In bond markets, U.S. Treasury yields were mixed on Thursday, as a report on wholesale prices confirmed inflation was slowing. The yield on the 10-year Treasury decreased 4.7 basis points at 3.392%, while the 2-year Treasury traded less than 1 basis point higher at 3.908%.
Support Levels:
4134, 4121-4123, 4114 (broadening formation), 4106, 4090, 4078-82 (major), 4061 (major), 4040-45 (major), 4034, 4015-20 (major), 4010, 3980-83 (major)
Resistance Levels:
4145 (major), 4153 (major), 4166, 4174, 4179-81 (major), 4190-93, 4200, 4209, 4218, 4225 (major), 4233 (broadening formation), 4243, 4250, 4262, 4275 (major)
Final Thoughts
Remember, more trading does not necessarily equate to more profits. Instead, a strategic approach—methodically stacking gains from level to level and knowing when to exit—will prove to be more profitable.
We must always stay vigilant, adaptable, and patient in this dynamic market. We'll continue to provide regular updates and strategies to help you navigate these waters.
Not Investment Advice:
Please note that the information and strategies shared in this newsletter are for informational and educational purposes only. They should not be considered investment advice, nor should they be used as a basis for making any investment decisions. Always consult a financial professional before making any investment decisions, and ensure you understand the risks involved in trading and investing.
Elliott Wave Outlook: S&P-500 E-Mini (ES) Looking to Extend HighShort Term Elliott Wave View on S&P 500 E-Mini (ES) below shows that the Index ended wave 3 at 4206.25 and pullback in wave 4 is proposed complete at 4062.25. This view will get validation if the Index manages to break above wave 3. Internal subdivision of wave 4 unfolded as a double three Elliott Wave structure. Down from wave 3, wave (a) ended at 4176.25 and rally in wave (b) ended at 4191.50. Index resumed lower in wave (c) towards 4105.50 and this completed wave ((w)). Index then corrected in wave ((x)) towards 4167 with internal subdivision as a zigzag. Up from wave ((w)), wave (a) ended at 4154.5 and pullback in wave (b) ended at 4130.75. Wave (c) higher ended at 4167 which completed wave ((x)).
Index resumed lower again in wave ((y)) with internal subdivision as a zigzag. Down from wave ((x)), wave (a) ended at 4075.5 and wave (b) rally ended at 4118. Index then resumes lower in wave (c) towards 4062.25 which completed wave ((y)) of 4. Index has since turned higher in wave 5 with internal subdivision as a 5 waves impulse. Up from wave 4, wave ((i)) ended at 4163.25. Pullback in wave ((ii)) ended at 4112.25 with internal structure of an expanded flat Near term, as far as pivot at 4062.25 low stays intact, expect the Index to extend higher.
$ES Area of interestCurrent areas of interest for $ES. Price may revisit these areas in future sessions.
S&P 500 - Leading Diagonal May Be Among UsHey everyone, I wanted to give you all a technical update on the S&P 500 (SPX) as it's been moving sideways for a few weeks now, and it seems like it's not done yet. With a lot of options expiring today, we might see some volatility soon, but let's consider what the majority is currently thinking.
According to the American Association of Individual Investors (AAII), we have 27% bullish sentiment, 37% neutral, and the remaining percentage is bearish. This is a change from just a couple of weeks ago, when 33% were bullish. The spread shows some greed, but not too much. We're right in the middle, which could mean a bit more sideways movement or even a slight upside in the short term.
Now, let me give you a quick educational insight into a technical pattern called a leading diagonal. A leading diagonal is a type of impulsive wave structure that occurs in the first wave of a motive sequence. It consists of five subwaves, with the first, third, and fifth waves typically subdividing into three smaller waves.
Looking at the SPX chart, you'll see a classic leading diagonal with all the subwaves fitting within it. If the SPX remains below 4170, the bearish count will be valid. I believe it's highly possible we revisit the 4120-4124 range before bouncing back up to around 4150 early next week. If the corrective structure I've projected plays out, we should see a more aggressive move to the downside by mid-week next week.
Of course, many things still need to happen, but keep a close eye on the trendlines I've placed on the chart. Pay special attention to the leading diagonal in green, the support level in yellow, old support in red, and key resistance in orange. Don't forget the horizontal support and resistance that has been critical for more than just a few weeks, especially the 4130-4140 zone. We've been battling in this area for quite some time.
Trade carefully, friends, and remember to always do your own research and manage your risk. I'll keep you all updated as things progress.
SPX 500 Futures: Analyzing Price Movements and Predicting TrendsAs a trader, keeping an eye on market trends and understanding how to interpret them is crucial to making informed decisions. In this article, I'll explore the price movements of the S&P 500 (SPX) futures since the beginning of February 2023. Whether you're a beginner or an intermediate trader, this analysis will provide insights into the market's behavior and hopefully help you make better decisions for your portfolio.
The Roller Coaster Ride: February to March 2023
At the beginning of February 2023, the ES futures hit a high near 4200, marking the start of a steep decline. The descent was impulsive, and prices dropped to almost 3800, stopping short by about 30 points. There are two ways to interpret the downward movement: either as a 5-wave structure or a 3-wave structure. The choppiness and overlap of the moves make it difficult to determine the exact structure, but one thing is clear: a significant bottom was reached around March 13, 2023, the same date as the bottom in 2020 .
The Rebound and the Big Question
Since that bottom, the ES futures have rebounded, practically returning to their starting point at 4200. Now, we face a critical question: what happens next? From a trading standpoint, it appears that we're in a rising wedge , forming an ending diagonal with multiple 3-wave structures. If the lower trendline is breached, the market could be on its way to testing 4000, or even lower . However, if the upper trendline is broken and the market surpasses 4200, a slow grind up to 4300-4500 is possible, although I'd give it a 20% chance at this point.
Key Trendlines and Moving Averages
Beneath the current market level, two significant trendlines exist . The first, originating from the October lows, sits around 3925 , while the second, from the COVID-19 lows, hovers around 3775 . Interestingly, the latter trendline coincides with the 200-week simple moving average .
Making Bets: Bull or Bear?
Regardless of whether you're bullish or bearish, it's evident that the market is in a compressing wedge , which will eventually break in one direction or the other. The decision you need to make is whether to place your bets now or wait for a break to occur. It's worth noting that while the market has risen significantly, it could fall just as quickly. Conversely, after a challenging 2022 for investors, the market could continue to rise. The key to longer-term upside potential lies in the VIX, which needs to stay below 20 for the slow grind rise .
By examining the recent history of the SPX 500 futures and their current position within a compressing wedge, you can better prepare for potential shifts in the market. Whether you choose to place your bets now or wait for a break, staying informed and adaptable is crucial to successful trading.
4240+ incomingPrice is basing and holding the 4100 level nicely and staying within this latest uptrend. We had a break of the larger uptrend (the red channel), so price typically wants to make a newer high (4240+). Price has also broken 4150 which was shown to be resistance, and is now holding. I'd like to see price continue to hold 4150. If it does, I believe we'll see a new high of 4240+ within the next two weeks.
If we can't hold 4100, 4072/4050 are next levels down.
$SPY: Risk onDaily trend turning bullish again in $SPY here...Let's see how it goes. FOMC tomorrow, hopefully things stay the course.
Best of luck!
Cheers,
Ivan Labrie.
S&P 500 Futures: Fibonacci Levels and Upcoming TrendsS&P 500 futures are currently experiencing a pause due to Fibonacci extension targets, with a possible further upside move towards the 4100 level. A short-term cool down period and pullback is expected before potentially heading higher into mid-week next week. Keep an eye on the VIX for potential moves.
I noticed an interesting battle around Fibonacci levels at the close on Thursday. There are a couple of pivotal points to consider. The first set of pivots are 3937 > 4033 > 3981, which create Fibonacci extension targets of 4079 and 4102. This likely explains the current pause in the market.
Another layer of important pivots are 3839 > 4073 > 3937, which place a 61.8% Fibonacci extension target at 4084. This further reinforces the reason for the price action pause today.
Based on this analysis, I expect that we're going to see a further upside move tomorrow, as there is still a decent amount of momentum behind this market movement. It seems likely that the 4100 level will be tapped. Numerous indicators are overbought on most timeframes, including higher timeframes such as the 4-hour and daily charts.
The key takeaway is that a portion of the current correction appears to be almost complete, suggesting a cool down period as I mentioned yesterday. I anticipate a pullback to somewhere near 4000-4025 before heading higher into mid-week next week. As I've been discussing April 6th for a while now, this should serve as reinforcement. My projected path is up tomorrow, down on Monday/Tuesday, up on Wednesday/Thursday, and then I will determine what happens next.
I'm also keeping an eye on the VIX. There is a possibility that it is bottoming out around 19 for now, with a potential move up to 25 in the coming weeks. However, it's important not to make hasty trading decisions based on this observation alone.
S&P 500 Update: Monitoring Key Developments in Early AprilThe S&P 500 Index (SPX) futures have recently deviated from prior expectations, exhibiting a lot of overlapping and corrective price action. This irregularity has led to uncertainty about the market's near-term direction. As we approach the end of the week, let's take a closer look at the anticipated trends and key levels to watch.
Today's upward movement may entice many bullish traders, but a cool-off period seems more likely in the short term. I expect tomorrow's price action to decline, allowing the market to take a breather. Should the S&P 500 continue to rise, however, it could signal a significant bullish shift.
As the week comes to a close, the index may experience a downward move, possibly reaching as low as 4000 or cutting short around 4010. A key trendline on the chart should offer some support during this period.
Next week, my focus shifts to the April 6th target. The apex of the converging upper and lower trendlines forms a wedge, which I believe will be broken in an upward direction. This coincidental alignment with my April 6th target demands attention. Once the market moves above the wedge, I anticipate a considerable decline either on April 6th or in the following days.
While I won't disclose my downside target yet, I predict a potential spike in the CBOE Volatility Index (VIX) if the S&P 500 declines after April 6th. You should closely monitor the VIX and the ProShares Ultra VIX Short-Term Futures ETF (UVXY), which could exceed $6 within the next 3-4 weeks if my projections are accurate.
I urge traders to exercise caution, avoid overleveraging, and remain adaptive to market changes. It's crucial to remember that the market controls your actions, not the other way around. Stay alert and prepared to adjust your strategy as necessary, and always trade carefully.
SPX Futures: Navigating the Current Market PhaseI'd like to examine the recent performance of the S&P 500 Index (SPX) futures and provide a simplified analysis.
I initially targeted the 3990 level for SPX futures, but the market fell slightly short of this target. It's still possible (and likely) that we could see a move down to this level (or 3970-3980) in the near future. The current market movement appears to be corrective, and since March 13, we've been in a predominantly corrective phase.
As long as SPX futures high of around 4075 holds, we can expect a downward move towards 3750. Identifying invalidation levels (points at which a specific analysis or trading strategy is no longer valid) is crucial for long-term success in this consolidating market. Trading options has been challenging for inexperienced traders, as theta decay (the decrease in an option's value as time passes) is working against them.
My current expectation is for a move to the 3970-3980 range short-term, followed by a return to around 4050 in a few trading sessions. Take the market one day at a time, but keep in mind that reaching the 4050 level presents an excellent opportunity to establish a short position with a clear invalidation level and manageable risk. The risk-reward ratio is favorable here, as a drop to 3750 would represent a move of over 200 points. Keep in mind that this shift might not happen quickly, and for now, trading futures contracts may be a more suitable approach. Make sure you understand how futures trading works before diving in head first.
Always monitor market developments closely and be prepared to adjust your strategy based on new information. It's essential to balance risk and reward while considering the current market phase and your own trading experience.
Deciphering: Analyzing Leading Diagonal Patterns and Key LevelsThe financial markets are a complex ecosystem where a multitude of factors influence the movement of securities. One of the key aspects of understanding market dynamics is recognizing patterns and monitoring key levels that can indicate possible future trends. In this article, I will discuss the leading diagonal pattern, its importance in technical analysis, and compare the ES futures to the SPX cash index. I will also delve into the significance of key levels and how they are essential for identifying support and resistance.
Leading Diagonal: A Brief Overview
A leading diagonal is a specific pattern in the Elliott Wave Theory, a form of technical analysis used to predict market trends by identifying recurring wave patterns. The leading diagonal pattern is typically found in the initial wave of a new trend and is characterized by a five-wave structure, with each wave subdividing into three smaller waves. This creates a 5-3-5-3-5 pattern, indicating that the market is likely to experience a significant trend reversal.
In my analysis of the ES futures and the SPX cash index, it appears that we have observed a leading diagonal pattern, which may suggest a short-term bottom and a potential upside move in the coming weeks.
Comparing ES Futures and SPX Cash Index
When analyzing market trends, it is crucial to understand that different instruments may display different chart patterns. In our case, the ES futures and SPX cash index exhibit a disparity due to contango, a situation where the futures price is higher than the spot price. This results in the futures chart looking somewhat different when compared to the cash index. Nevertheless, it is essential to take both into consideration when making predictions about the market's direction.
The Importance of Key Levels
Key levels in technical analysis are price points that serve as significant support or resistance areas for a financial instrument. They are essential for identifying potential entry and exit points in trades and can help determine if a trend will continue or reverse.
In my analysis of the ES futures, we are currently sitting at the 3967 level, which is an important support level. If the market breaks below this level, it could drop down to the next key level around 3925 before making a corrective move up to the 4000-4010 area. Observing these levels allows you to make informed decisions on when to enter or exit positions based on market behavior.
In the current scenario, the leading diagonal pattern suggests that we may see a short-term bottom soon, followed by a corrective move up and potential further downside. Keeping an eye on key levels, such as 3967 and 3925, will help us determine potential support and resistance areas, which in turn can guide our trading decisions. Moving forward, it is important to continually monitor the market and adjust your analysis based on new information, always taking into account both the futures and cash indices to get a comprehensive understanding of market dynamics since futures trades ~23/5 and the cash indicies do not.
By staying vigilant and utilizing the principles of technical analysis, such as leading diagonal patterns and key levels, you can better navigate the ever-changing landscape of the financial markets. This approach, combined with other fundamental and technical indicators, can provide a solid foundation for making informed decisions and managing risk in an often unpredictable environment.
3/24 Daily Plan and Weekly Plan Update03/20 Weekly Plan. ES Futures June
Weekly Pivot is 3,950 .
Targets
1. 3,988
2. 4,038
3. 4,090
4. 4,140
Targets
1. 3,898
2. 3,840
3. 3,794
4. 3,696
SPX - Mastering the Market's Mood SwingsI previously discussed the likelihood of the S&P 500 Index (SPX) experiencing a rebound towards the 4000-4050 range, with particular attention given to the 4020-4040 level. The index indeed reached approximately 4039 before encountering a substantial pullback. Trading on such days can be complex, and if you're not positioned correctly and overleveraged, you may face considerable losses. Notably, the SPX nearly reached the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement level, which stands at 4043.
As we move forward, we can anticipate increased volatility with alternating bullish and bearish movements over the next two weeks. This presents lucrative opportunities for traders, which I intend to exploit. In the past, I've examined the intersection of downtrend and uptrend lines, and when these lines crossed without any release of pressure, I accurately predicted the market's continued sideways movement. This situation remains valid, with the market exhibiting wild price fluctuations.
For the short term, I project that the SPX will decline to roughly 3900 by Friday (and possibly lower into next week) before rebounding in the first week of April. Monitor April 6th closely, as it may serve as a pivotal point in the market's trajectory. If the market is in a downward trend approaching the full moon, anticipate a significant upward shift, but if it's in an upward trend, expect a substantial downward movement.
Lastly, I'd like to mention the Wave Master Indicator, a tool I developed and have been utilizing in my trading endeavors for years. On the 1-hour SPX chart, the Wave Master Indicator suggests a short-term bearish outlook. In a previous analysis, I highlighted the 4-hour chart, which indicated a potential upward move heading into the FOMC meeting. However, the longer-term indicators were pointing towards a downward trend. This is precisely what happened.
Remember that the stock market can be unpredictable, much like the weather. So here's a little joke to lighten the mood: Why did the stock market investor go broke? He tried to catch a falling knife and got cut! Stay sharp and happy trading!
#ES_F 3.22.23 Day Trading PrepFED Day!
Market might be gearing up for a big move today, on a bigger timeframe we found our top, found or low and now back to the middle of the range. Yesterday showed us that we still have buyers but most of the buyers right now are large short covering and momentum longs from Daily Support which puts us in interesting spot. Currently over 4012-3990 Daily Support inside Previous Days Range and looks like accepted in a bigger 4100-4000 range which to me says possibility that we push higher before or on the Fed BUT I also think that is a spot where we can find size sellers as well and if we will have Supply this thing is not held up by much Support IF 4012-3890 breaks and take out 3976-71 thing could get ugly to the downside with lower Daily Support to watch at 3915-3890 and if things get ugly to 3800-3790 but that only happens I think IF we do make a push towards 4084-4100 and cant hold/reverse. Currently we are in this 4046-4000 range if we can hold 4030-25 possibly move towards that 4061-46 area and then we can watching if we can continue out of it before the fed or not and if we fail to hold 4030-25 could head for our lower support.
Levels to Watch
Resistance : Key Daily 4123-4100 Key Intraday 4123-19 // 4103-4099 // 4084-77 Current 4046-42 For Continuation Higher 4061-56
Support : Key Daily 4012-3980 // 3915-3890 // 3810-3790 Key Intraday 4030-25 // 3994-90 // 3976-71 Current 4030-25 ?
Rally in $SPX Expected to Fail According to Elliott WaveS&P 500 (SPX) rally from 10.13.2022 low was in 3 swing and ended wave (2) at 4194.16 as the 1 hour chart below shows. Wave (3) lower is now in progress as a 5 waves impulse Elliott Wave structure. Down from wave (2), wave ((i)) ended at 3943.08 and rally in wave ((ii)) ended at 4078.49. The Index extended lower again in wave ((iii)) towards 3842.91 and rally in wave ((iv)) ended at 3937.27. Final leg lower wave ((v)) ended at 3838.24 which completed wave 1. Wave 2 rally is now in progress to correct cycle from 2.3.2023 high.
Internal of wave 2 is in progress as a zigzag Elliott Wave structure. Up from wave 1, wave ((a)) ended at 3964.46 and pullback in wave ((b)) ended at 3901.27. Final leg higher wave ((c)) is in progress to correct cycle from 2.3.2023 high before the decline resumes. Potential target higher is 100% – 161.8% Fibonacci extension of wave ((a)). The area comes at 4030.8 – 4110.1. From this area, sellers can appear and the Index can resume lower again. As far as pivot at 4194.16 high stays intact, expect rally to fail in 3, 7, or 11 swing for further downside.
