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6/1: Daily Recap, Outlook, and Trading PlanRecap Over the past few weeks, a pattern has emerged where Thursdays and Fridays see a violent squeeze, followed by a "hangover" state in the first few days of the next week. Both last week and this week so far have followed this pattern. We are currently in the sub-4200 congestion zone after yesterday's dip, having retraced about 60% of last week's rally. The Markets 🌏 Asia: Mixed 🌍 Europe: Up 🌎 US Index Futures: Up slightly 🛢 Crude Oil: Up slightly 💵 Dollar: Down 🧐 Yields: Down 🔮 Crypto: Down a bit Trading Plan 💪 4193 - 4185 is support 📈 Next minor is 4212, then 4221 📉 Pullback if 4185 fails is 4167, then 4145 Key Structures The purple triangle backtest has a support level of 4147 and a resistance level of 4190. Resistance is now around 4221 on the small white channel. A new leg up to break the weekly high would begin if this area could be reclaimed. Support Levels 4193 (major), 4185-88, 4176, 4167-70, 4160, 4146, 4137, 4125-28, 4112-15, 4099 (major), 4084, 4070-75, 4062, 4048 (major), 4036, 4030 (major) Resistance Levels 4200-05 (major), 4213, 4221, 4230, 4240-43 (major), 4247, 4263, 4274 Trading Plan Expect a more complex trading session today, with possibilities for both long and short setups. The 4190 triangle level was reclaimed at around 4194, offering some long exposure opportunities. However, trading in the 4185-90 zone requires skill and a strong real-time sense of action due to its messy and well-tested nature. An alternative is to test around 4185, then spike back up to 4192 for an entry. Potential knife catch long locations include the 4160 and 4146 levels if there is a leg down. Wrap Up Yesterday's session was complex and future sessions are likely to follow suit. After the easy trend last week, it's time to be strategic. Focus on reacting, with a loose lean as follows: as long as 4193-85 holds, a push back to 4213 and 4221, followed by another dip, is possible. If 4185 fails, a correction may be needed, possibly down to 4160. Disclosure: This is not financial advice and is for informational purposes only. Please consult a professional financial advisor before making any investment decisions.
CME_MINI:ES1!
by spytradingpro
5/31: Daily Recap, Outlook, and Trading PlanRecap ES has been in a broad dip-buy regime since October. Today marked the first post-rally pullback, and the ES had a very choppy/corrective session. We are in a confusing post-rally consolidation phase, with a new consolidation range between 4206 and 4243. The Markets Overnight 🌏 Asia: Down 🌍 Europe: Down 🌎 US Index Futures: Down 🛢 Crude Oil: Down a lot 💵 Dollar: Up a bit 🧐 Yields: Down 🔮 Crypto: Down Key Structures The purple triangle is one of the key structures I'm keeping an eye on, with a clear support line extending from May 10 through May 24. Support is currently at 4145. The sizable blue broadening formation is also a key structure to watch. Generally, these patterns tend to "fill out” over time, so when support of this pattern tests, resistance tends to become a magnet. Support Levels First support down is at 4212, followed by 4206 and major support at 4193-89. Further support levels include 4165, 4145, and 4113-4116. Resistance Levels Major resistance levels include 4221-24, 4243, 4273-77 (blue broadening formation resistance), and 4292. Additional resistance exists at 4313 and 4342. Trading Plan Consider going long at 4213, provided it holds above 4212. Initially, aim for 4243, but be cautious chasing in a choppy range. If the 4221-24 level is reclaimed, it would be bullish. However, if 4213 fails, it could signal a bearish case. If we drop below 4213, only consider going short if there's a significant bounce and hours of acceptance at given levels. Wrap Up Following the recent rally, we are now in a period of choppy consolidation. Ideally, we can hold 4213, potentially backtest 4194-89, and continue the basing process by bouncing to 4243. If 4194-89 fails, we may start our journey back to triangle support, which would be a warning for bulls. Remember to stick to the three fundamental principles: do not overtrade, manage trades using a standard procedure, and pay attention to failed breakdowns and breakouts when looking for entry points. Disclosure: This is not financial advice and is for informational purposes only. Please consult a professional financial advisor before making any investment decisions.
CME_MINI:ES1!
by spytradingpro
5/27: Weekend Recap, Outlook, and Trading PlanRecap After shaving 100 points off the weekly low, we are currently monitoring several structures. A "triangles within triangles" pattern is emerging, with a larger triangle appearing (shown in purple). Although this technically broke out yesterday, factors like stretched-out RSI and the upcoming long weekend make us suspect ES still has work to do. After witnessing a significant and straightforward move, it is now time to react and monitor further price movement. The plan and lean will be detailed at the very end. Stock Market Performance The U.S. stock market saw modest gains in April. The S&P 500 rose 1.4% during this period, thanks in part to signs that inflation is cooling off, indicating that the current interest rate hike cycle might be ending​​. Investors are optimistic that the market can continue its bullish momentum into May, despite historically being one of the worst months for the S&P 500​​. Recession Risks There is a rising risk of a recession, due in part to slowing economic growth. The U.S. GDP grew by just 1.1% in the first quarter, well below the expected 2% growth. This has led some investors and experts to believe that a recession in 2023 is unavoidable​. Inflation and Federal Reserve Actions The inflation rate, as measured by the Consumer Price Index, was 5% year-over-year in March, down from peak levels of 9.1% in June 2022 but still above the Federal Reserve's 2% long-term target​. The Federal Reserve has been hiking interest rates to combat inflation. The market is currently pricing in an 85% chance that the Fed will raise rates in May, with a potential rate hike in June still on the​ table. The Fed's actions in the coming months will be crucial in determining whether the economy can avoid a recession​. Economic Indicators The U.S. housing market has softened, and manufacturing activity has dropped. The U.S. Treasury yield curve has been inverted since mid-2022, which is often a sign of an impending recession​. However, the labor market remains resilient, with the economy adding 253,000 jobs in April, and the unemployment rate remaining low at 3.4%​. Support Levels Support is currently in the mid-4140s. 4213, 4205 (major), 4187-94 (major zone), 4176, 4165 (major), 4155, 4143 (major), 4137, 4123 (major), 4109 (major), 4099, 4081 (major), and 4072 (major). Resistance Levels 4221 (major), 4228, 4235, 4242 (major), 4254, 4260 (major), 4267, 4274 (major), 4283, 4295, 4306, and 4312 (major). Trading Plan The presented levels are valid for both Tuesday and Monday's short futures trading day but may be slightly less accurate. We will be taking it easy on Monday and Tuesday while waiting for price discovery. The general consensus is that we can hold 4220 at this point, possibly backtest 4205 and 4193, then defend and establish a base before another rally. If 4193 fails, we will see a further dip. Wrap Up In this newsletter, we discussed the possibility of finally breaking through the 4200s area, our method for trailing stops, and our trade plan for the upcoming week. Our general sentiment is that we can now hold 4220, possibly backtest 4205 and 4193, then defend and create a base before another rally. A further dip is expected if 4193 fails.
CME_MINI:ES1!Long
by spytradingpro
5/26: Market Recap, Outlook, and Trading PlanToday's Recap This week, we experienced a nice 130-point decline, creating a unique short opportunity. The market overreacted, but since October, dips have been consistently bought. We repeatedly held 4123-16, climbed back to 4165-75, and then experienced a tradeable dip to open today's session. In this newsletter, we will discuss the setup that got us long for today's rally, the reason for it, and provide the workable trade plan for today. Debt Ceiling Crisis With the debt ceiling as the main risk, Friday is coming up before a 3-day weekend. We'll trade sparingly or perhaps not at all tomorrow as a result (holding our runner). Our objective will be to preserve this week's profit rather than increase it. Bond Yield Rates No significant updates on bond yield rates today. Key Structures The blue triangle: Over the course of ten days, we constructed a classic triangle pattern that, on May 17, broke out, setting us up for a squeeze of more than 100 points. We roughly received the backtest yesterday and then rallied in response to it. Above that triangle, the breakout from last week is still in effect, while below it, the breakout failed. The upside is still present right now. That support is at 4118 right now. The yellow rising channel: Yesterday, we dissected it; today, we backtested it. Right now, there is 4175 resistance. Reclaiming it is extremely bullish and strong proof that a bottom has been formed (once inside it, the uptrend is reinstated). White downtrend channel: 4205 is currently the resistance, and this is a magnet. The Yellow Uptrend Channel Currently consolidating under this major zone and accepting it, we are not yet back in this range. Support Levels 4155-58, 4147 (major), 4134-38 (major), 4118-23, 4105 (major), 4099, 4085, 4074-76 (major), 4061, 4052 (major), 4040, 4020-25 (major), 4013, 4000-4005 (major), 3980 (major). Resistance Levels 4167, 4172-75 (major), 4181, 4191-93 (major), 4200-05 (major), 4215, 4222-25 (major), 4238, 4242 (major), 4250, 4256, 4270-75 (major). Trading Plan We view the range 4175–4135 as a new chop zone; trade with caution in it as the action will be chaotic and tactical. To add longs, we will be keeping an eye out for failed breakdowns. One could bid on 4147 or wait for a flush to 4134-38 before reclaiming it in an effort to try and scalp some points in this range. 4147 is the first strong support down. In the same manner as yesterday, 4134-38 will need to provide support for tomorrow; alternatively, one may choose to wait for a failed breakdown. Only the levels above marked as major are the places we'd try knife catches if that doesn't work Wrap Up Many traders choose to take the Friday before a three-day weekend off. We won't put this week's profits in danger; instead, we'll be concerned with protecting our profits. But now, the chop zone is 4135–4175. Our general inclination is to fill this out (ideally, bulls want to hold above that 4147 zone), then try the push higher to 4190+. The warning shot for the bear case is 4135 fail. Disclosure: This is not financial advice and is for informational purposes only. Please consult a professional financial advisor before making any investment decisions.
CME_MINI:ES1!
by spytradingpro
5/25: Market Recap, Outlook, and Trading PlanSPDR S&P 500 FUTURES ESM2023 & SPY ETF - Market Update - 5/25/23 Today's Recap This week has been a mirror image of last week, with the ES building a smaller triangle and breaking down, triggering a nearly 100-point sell. Although this seems dramatic, similar dips have occurred in the past month and have been bought. The question now is whether this dip will also be bought. Debt Ceiling Crisis The current market environment is complex and headline-driven, with the debt ceiling debate making the next few days of trading potentially difficult. Traders need to be flexible and prepared to react to price movements, rather than trying to predict or forecast the market. Bond Yield Rates Bond yields have been fluctuating due to the uncertainty surrounding the debt ceiling crisis. This has led to increased volatility in the market, making it more challenging for traders to navigate. Key Structures The latest rally of this bull leg started because we broke out a triangle structure shown in blue below. It is currently at 4123-4116 and represents an important back-test, which we managed to defend. The yellow rising channel connecting the May lows. This broke down yesterday. As always, when price breaks down any sort of significant level that level needs to be recovered in order to “end” the immediate move (down). Currently, this is 4165-75 and I would say a “bottom is in” when that is recovered. While this is very far away - note the lowest white trendline. This connects the October low with the March low and is currently 3980. I consider this the driving trendline controlling the multi-month bull market we are currently in. We remain in a clear uptrend by every definable measure. The Flat Bottom You can see the flat bottom pattern failed to hold and triggered the sell-off at 4190. The Yellow Uptrend Channel The yellow uptrend channel, which connects the May lows, broke down yesterday. In order to end the immediate move down, the level of 4165-75 needs to be recovered. Supports and resistances are listed, and I discuss potential bids and trade scenarios for both bull and bear cases. In summary, 4195-4220 is chop, and there is a heavy headline risk due to the debt ceiling. Bulls control above the structure Bears control below the structure The back-test level is now 4140-42. Support Levels The bull case would look something like yesterday lows continue holding, and from there we push up the levels to 4147, 4156, then 4166-75 where ES can try another sell. 4123, 4116 (major), 4100-05 (major), 4087, 4075 (major), 4061, 4053 (major), 4040, 4020-25 (major), 4013, 4000 (major), 3977-83 (major). Resistance Levels Starts on the failure of yesterday’s low. Ideally, one more bounce attempt at 4116-23 before trying a short. After this bounce though, consider a short 4115 or so for a move to 4100-05 where gains should be locked in. 4135 (major), 4147, 4157, 4166 (major), 4175 (major), 4191-95 (major), 4204 (major), 4212, 4221 (major), 4235, 4242-45 (major), 4253, 4259, 4270-75 (major). Trading Plan If buying big red candles, these are “knife catch trades”. Size them down. 4123-4116 is major support still, one could bid it direct again or wait for a decisive failed breakdown. In terms of spots to try knife catches, 4100-05 and 4075 would be possible regions. Wrap Up In conclusion, the market is currently in a complex and headline-driven environment due to the debt ceiling crisis. Traders need to be flexible and prepared to react to price movements, rather than trying to predict or forecast the market. Keep an eye on key structures, support and resistance levels, and have a solid trading plan in place to navigate the market successfully. Disclosure: This is not financial advice and is for informational purposes only. Please consult a professional financial advisor before making any investment decisions.
CME_MINI:ES1!
by spytradingpro
SP500 Makes "Failure" Break Higher; Now Short-term Weakness SP500 is making a sharp reversal, so it appears it was failure break higher after that overcrowded trade when everyone expected 4200 to be a major breakout point for the bull run. We also see USD still in bullish mode which can extend gains much higher now if stocks will be in risk-off mode. Looking at the SP500 price action, we see price falling below the trendline support so it seems that five wave rise from the March low is finished and that minimum three wave drop is in play. Big important level can be 4060/4070 which has been retested a few times in the last two months. Below that we have 4k, near 61.8% Fib.
CME_MINI:ESM2023
by ew-forecast
5/23: Market Recap, Outlook, and Trading PlanToday's Recap The failed breakdown, my primary setup, and how it leads to profitable trades are all covered in this newsletter. Along with providing the day's workable trade plan, I also discuss how I've been managing my long since last week. Market cycles between Trend and Chop are common. Our 105-point rally last week was an extreme Trend, and it was followed by an untidy Chop as a base was being built. It's crucial to keep in mind that nobody can forecast intraday price movement, especially in Chop. When a setup triggers, a trader's responsibility is to respond and manage the trade using a predetermined procedure. Debt Ceiling Crisis The United States government is facing a debt ceiling crisis. The debt ceiling is a limit on the amount of money the government can borrow to pay its bills. The government is currently about $28 trillion in debt, and the debt ceiling is set to be reached on June 1. If the government does not raise the debt ceiling, it will be unable to pay its bills and will default on its debt. This would have a devastating impact on the economy, leading to a recession and a loss of jobs. Congress is currently negotiating a deal to raise the debt ceiling, but there is no agreement yet. The Republicans are demanding spending cuts in exchange for raising the debt ceiling, while the Democrats are refusing to make any cuts. The debt ceiling crisis is a major threat to the economy. It is important for Congress to reach a deal to raise the debt ceiling as soon as possible. Bond Yield Rates The yield on the 10-year Treasury note opened at 3.717% today. The rise in bond yields is due to concerns about the debt ceiling crisis and the prospect of higher inflation. Higher bond yields make it more expensive for businesses to borrow money, which can slow down economic growth. They can also make it more expensive for consumers to borrow money, which can lead to a decline in spending. The rise in bond yields is a sign that investors are worried about the future of the economy. It is important to watch bond yields closely, as they can provide early warning signs of a recession. Key Structures Key market structures I'm tracking include: The pink triangle that contained all of last week's action pre-breakout A 2-day triangle since Friday The 4166-71 area The large broadening formation pattern in blue Due to ongoing debt ceiling negotiations, there is increased headline risk and risk of large, bi-directional moves out of nowhere. The Week-Long Triangle Structure This structure triggered the recent breakout. The market dynamics can be summarized as follows: Bulls control above the structure Bears control below the structure The back-test level is now 4140-42. The Yellow Uptrend Channel This structure, connecting the May 4th low and this week's low, is a crucial support area at around 4140-42. Bulls will want to hold this structure. Supports and resistances are listed, and I discuss potential bids and trade scenarios for both bull and bear cases. In summary, 4195-4220 is chop, and there is a heavy headline risk due to the debt ceiling. Support Levels As long as 4147 holds, we continue our upward trajectory. The 4140-42 area, derived from the triangle structure and the yellow uptrend channel, is an obvious structure bulls want to hold. 4205, 4195-97 (major), 4191, 4180, 4167-71 (major), 4155 (major), 4144, 4130-35 (major), 4123, 4112, 4097-4100 (major), 4092, 4077-80 (major), 4069, 4061, 4053 (major), 4041 (major), 4015-20 (major), 3995 (major) Resistance Levels Initial resistance was at 4192, acting as a magnet, as previously identified. According to the blue broadening formation, the next major resistance level is now at 4242. 4217-20 (major), 4231, 4240-42, 4248 (major), 4261 (major), 4268, 4280 (major), 4288, 4306 (major), 4319, 4325-30 (major), 4342. Trading Plan As long as 4195 holds, we keep filling out the triangle, targeting 4231, 4242+. If 4195 fails, we start the sell and I'd be looking to go short. Wrap Up Never fight the trend. Stay patient and adhere to your trading plan. Follow the key structures, resistance, and support levels closely. Disclosure: This is not financial advice and is for informational purposes only. Please consult a professional financial advisor before making any investment decisions.
CME_MINI:ES1!
by spytradingpro
5/22: Market Recap and OutlookCharting 101, Trailing Stops, Bond Yields, and the Debt Ceiling Introduction In this newsletter, we'll recap the recent market action, discuss the power of holding runners, talk about strategies for trailing stops, and provide an update on bond yields and the debt ceiling. We'll also provide an actionable plan for the upcoming trading day. Market Recap Last week saw a tight trading range, with the market eventually breaking out and reaching 4228. Friday was OPEX day, which led to choppy trading conditions and the market mostly pinned around 4200. This week's market action demonstrated many foundational charting concepts, such as the transition between Chop and Trend. Trailing Stops Trailing stops are an essential part of a trading system, helping to lock in profits and minimize losses. The strategy involves dragging the stop up behind the most significant swing low on the 30-minute chart, usually once or twice a day. The goal is to eventually get stopped out, with the stop tightened as the trade progresses. Actionable Plan For the upcoming trading day, keep an eye on the following structures: Blue broadening formation: Resistance is at 4245, while support is at 4040. A breakout has a bullish bias, with the next major magnet at 4305. White broadening formation: We broke out on Thursday, with a backtest at 4200. Purple rising channel: Support is at 4148, controlling the short-term uptrend. Triangle structure: The measured move target is in the high 4260s. Support and resistance levels, as well as potential entry points for long and short positions, are detailed below: Support Levels 4200-4197 (major), 4192, 4176, 4166-70 (major), 4155, 4145-48 (major), 4135(major - triangle backtest), 4128 (broadening formation support), 4114, 4105, 4092 (major), 4078 (major), 4067, 4061, 4055 (major), 4040-43 (major), 4033, 4015-20 (major). Resistance Levels 4216-4221, 4228, 4239, 4246 (major - broadening formation), 4255-60 (major), 4275-80 (major), 4289, 4300 (major), 4305-08 (major), 4320-23 (major), 4342-45 (major), 4360, 4368 (major). Summary After a clean, easy rally leg, expect some complex, messy trading as the market transitions back into Chop. React to the market action using the provided plan, with a loose lean towards a bullish bias as long as 4200 holds. If 4200-4197 fails, a pullback is likely, and short positions may be taken. Bond Yields The yield on the 10-year Treasury note rose to 2.95% on Friday, the highest level since May 2019. The rise in bond yields was driven by concerns about inflation and the Federal Reserve's plans to raise interest rates. Debt Ceiling The US debt ceiling is currently set at $28.9 trillion. The Treasury Department has said that it will run out of money to pay its bills on October 18, 2023. If Congress does not raise the debt ceiling by then, the US government will be unable to pay its bills and could default on its debt. Conclusion The market is facing a number of headwinds, including rising inflation, rising interest rates, and the looming debt ceiling deadline. You should be prepared for a volatile market in the coming days and weeks ahead. Disclosure: This is not financial advice and is for informational purposes only. Please consult a professional financial advisor before making any investment decisions.
CME_MINI:ES1!
by spytradingpro
Riding the Bull: Are We Set to Rally Higher?SPDR S&P 500 FUTURES CME_MINI:ESM2023 & AMEX:SPY ETF - Evening Market Update - 10/18/23 Today's Recap We saw a remarkable movement in ES over the past week. It was technical analysis at its finest: a 10-day tight range was followed by a breakout, just as the underlying trend suggested. As per historical trends, these range breakouts can lead to sustained rallies. Key Structures Several key structures have emerged that are worth watching: The Week-Long Triangle Structure: This structure triggered the recent breakout. The market dynamics can be summarized as follows: bulls control above it, and bears control below it. The back-test level is now 4140-42. The Purple Uptrend Channel: This structure, connecting the May 4th low and this week's low, is a crucial support area at around 4140-42. Bulls will want to hold this structure. The Blue and White Broadening Formation: This structure has been a focus in our discussions. The white broadening formation resistance, at around 4197, was the target for weeks, and it broke out late today. Support Levels As long as 4147 holds, we continue our upward trajectory. The 4140-42 area, derived from the triangle structure and the purple uptrend channel, is an obvious structure bulls want to hold. 4197, the previous resistance, has now turned into a support level. 4197-95 (major), 4182-85 (major), 4175, 4168, 4156 (major), 4140-42 (major - backtests the triangle breakout), 4135, 4126 (major - triangle support), 4114, 4106, 4092-95 (major - broadening formation support). Resistance Levels Initial resistance was at 4192, acting as a magnet, as previously identified. According to the blue broadening formation, the next major resistance level is now at 4242. 4212, 4221 (major), 4235, 4243 (major), 4249, 4263 (major), 4270-72, 4277 (major), 4296, 4306 (major). Trading Plan for Tomorrow The plan for tomorrow is straightforward: If the market remains above the key structures (4140-42), we should anticipate a continued upward trend toward the resistance at 4242. However, if the market dips below these structures, it could signal a shift in control to bears. Wrap Up Stay patient and adhere to your trading plan. Follow the key structures, resistance, and support levels closely. Disclosure: This is not financial advice and is for informational purposes only. Please consult a professional financial advisor before making any investment decisions.
CME_MINI:ES1!
by spytradingpro
Bulls Maintain Control as Market Holds Near Breakout LevelsThe market closed higher today. The move higher was driven by a number of factors, including stronger economic data and expectations that the Federal Reserve will not raise interest rates in June. However, the looking debt deadline is not in the review mirror yet. Key Points The market broke out from the tightest range seen since April 2017. The next level of resistance for ES_F is at 4175. If ES_F can break above this level, it could open the door to further gains towards 4200. The next major economic event for ES_F is the Federal Reserve's meeting on June 13-14. The Fed is not expected to raise interest rates. Bull Case As long as the 4155-47 breakout back-test area holds, bulls are in control. If it fails, bulls will want to recover quickly from 4135 support. Generally though, as long as that backtest holds, bulls are in control and we likely chop, bull flag, then continue to push to 4195 megaphone resistance. Possible pullback there then on to break the May highs. In terms of spots to add on strength, I will be watching for bull flag formation. We have the flag pole with todays rally, and the flagging would occur under 4178-80 and above 4166. If this flag can develop overnight, I may consider buying it in the morning. Bear Case Several levels need to fail for there to be any short-able bear case. The first warning, though is the 4147 breakout back-test. 4125 support needs to crack. However, a breakout short, perhaps 4122, to work down the levels to 4100 and lower. Final Thoughts The market is in a bullish trend, but it is important to be aware of the risks. The market could pull back in the coming days, especially if the debt ceiling isn’t raised, and it is important to be prepared for this possibility. Disclosure: This is not financial advice and is for informational purposes only. Please consult a professional financial advisor before making any investment decisions.
CME_MINI:ES1!
by spytradingpro
After-Market Analysis: Patience in Play Amid ES_F's Narrow RangeWe witnessed a choppy session today, mainly pinned at 4135. The market fluctuated between 4155-4130, indicating the possibility of a breakout pushing up the levels to megaphone resistance. The bearish case will start with the failure of 4131. Today's session was marked by a continued consolidation within a narrow range for ES_F. The market has been in a tight range for the past week, with closing prices consistently falling within 1% of the 4130 zone. This is one of the tightest consolidations we've seen in years, and it's a consequence of the May 4th/5th rally and the options expiry week. We saw the ES_F put in a notable 6 daily candles stacked tightly side-by-side in approximately a 60-point range, likely the tightest range since the March or January lows. This could potentially be a trap for newer traders who are always seeking the rare "big home run move". Instead, the market seems to be tactically playing between levels, resulting in failed breakdowns to trap chasers. Resistance Levels: 4127, 4135 (major), 4142, 4148, 4152 (major), 4166, 4173-75 (major), 4188-90 (megaphone resistance, major), 4197, 4205 (major), 4220 (major), 4232, 4240-42 (major - large broadening formation resistance), 4256, 4266, 4273-76 (major), 4282, 4290-92 (major), 4305 (major). Support Levels: 4118 (major), 4111, 4100-4105 (major - broadening formation support), 4079-83 (major), 4070, 4057, 4040-44 (major - broadening formation support), 4025, 4020 (major), 3999, 3990 (major), 3967-72, 3956 (major). Key Structures: The small white broadening formation with support at 4105 and resistance at 4187-90. The larger blue broadening formation pattern with support at 4040 and resistance around 4235. The purple rising channel structure with support around 4136-31. Bonds: On the bond front, the yield on the 2-year, 10-year, and 30-year Treasuries showed a marginal increase today. This could be a significant factor to watch for in the coming days. Trading Plan: In the evening hours, I opened a short trade here at 4133 resistance. For any long positions, a sustained break above 4133-35 will be needed to trigger the upside once again. A false break will trigger back to downside support. Final Thoughts: In summary, while the market's current state might be frustrating for those seeking the "big move," it's crucial to remain patient and tactical. The market's gyrations test our resilience and adaptability as traders. Disclosure: This is not financial advice and is for informational purposes only. Please consult a professional financial advisor before making any investment decisions.
CME_MINI:ES1!
by spytradingpro
Chop or Pop? Tackle This Week's Tricky Market On $ES_F & $SPYIntraday Update Coming into this week, ES tested support at 4112 Friday with a double bottom. So far it’s been a choppy start to the OPEX week, with key support at 4132-29. There have been six round trips between ~4150s and 4120s, and we observed good follow-through in the market. 4155 just rejected down to 4136. Last Week We saw the market consolidating with 4165 resistance and 4115 support, as well as range expansion and complex trading patterns. The big picture context is a 1.5-month-long "megaphone" pattern, while the shorter term shows a smaller megaphone pattern with a 60% upside breakout bias. We also discussed the importance of level acceptance and not trading constantly in our trade recap. Plan for the Week Our focus this week is on navigating a tactical chop range between 4112 and 4181. The bull case for Monday is to defend 4129 and aim for 4145, 4158, and high 4170s. The bear case for Monday involves a loss of 4129 as the first warning, with a crack of 4112 for a real selloff. Expect tactical, trappy trading overall. Economic Events April Retail Sales: A potential downside surprise may affect rate pause and rate cut expectations. April Industrial Production: Expected to be flat; a higher-than-expected reading may support the Fed's hawkish stance. May Philadelphia Fed Manufacturing Survey: An above-expectations reading is seen as inflationary. Bonds Update 2-year Treasury yield at 4%, little changed 10-year Treasury yield advanced to 3.494% 30-year Treasury yield climbed 5.5 basis points to 3.831% Support Levels 4129-32, 4118 (major), 4112 (major - broadening formation support), 4106, 4099 (major), 4089, 4078-81 (major), 4061, 4040-4045 (major), 4031, 4017-20 (major), 4005, 3980-85 (major), 3967 (major), 3950-54, 3937 (major). Resistance Levels 4147, 4158 (major), 4172-75 (major), 4180, 4191 (major), 4205, 4212, 4217, 4227 (major), 4236 (major - broadening formation resistance), 4243, 4252, 4270-75 (major), 4286. 4158 as well as 4172-75 are decent zones to look for reactions as is 4191. Summary In summary, the market experienced consolidation and complex trading patterns last week. This week, our focus is on navigating the tactical chop range between 4112 and 4181, with both bull and bear case scenarios in play. Economic events, such as April Retail Sales and Industrial Production, may impact decisions on rate pauses and cuts. Disclosure: This is not financial advice and is for informational purposes only. Please consult a professional financial advisor before making any investment decisions.
CME_MINI:ES1!
by spytradingpro
April's CPI Surprise: Can Bulls Charge Forward For Now?SPDR S&P 500 FUTURES ( CME_MINI:ESM2023 ) & ETF ( AMEX:SPY ) - Market Update - 10/10/23 The April Consumer Price Index (CPI) report showed a 0.4% increase last month, driven by rising shelter, used vehicle, and gas prices. This increase met Wall Street expectations, and the annual inflation rate of 4.9% came in slightly below estimates, providing hope for a lower trend. For workers, real average hourly earnings, adjusted for inflation, rose 0.1% for the month but were still down 0.5% from a year ago. These CPI figures provided a stick save for ES_F. A massive 60-point range started with a failed breakout at 4176, and ES_F tested the overnight low, flushing to the 4114 support level. An intraday bull flag formed at the 4118-4123 support zone, with bulls getting long at the 4129-4134 range. A broadening formation (megaphone) pattern emerged at 4114, with resistance at 4176-4180. The rising uptrend channel from the March 2023 low is highlighted in yellow, establishing new support at 4134. Bull Case: On any pullback, look for re-entry to go long at the 4145-4146 level. If we move above 4145, the new magnet zone is 4176-4181. The 4166 support level is also a good magnet. Bear Case: On any pullback, look for re-entry to go short below 4134. Economic Factors: Keep an eye on the PPI-Final Demand and Jobless Claims data released at 8:30AM (EST) today. Bonds: The US10Y supports the bull case on the 4-hour chart with a new lower low. A symmetrical triangle pattern with a 5-day rising support range is visible, extending from 3.0308% to 3.311%. Support Levels: 4134-32 (major), 4122, 4114-16 (major), 4111, 4105, 4092, 4082-78 (major), 4061, 4048 (major - broadening formation support), 4037, 4020-22 (major), 4011 (major), 3997, 3984 (major), 3978, 3952 (major), 3942, 3935 (major), 3904 (major), 3892 (major) Resistance Levels: 4146 (major), 4154, 4166, 4176-81 (major, broadening formation support), 4188-92 (major), 4200, 4210, 4218-20 (major), 4230 (major - broadening formation support), 4243-46 (major), 4256 Final Thoughts: As the market continues to digest April's CPI surprise, traders should remain vigilant and watch key support and resistance levels. The bull case still has potential, but it is crucial to monitor economic factors, such as PPI-Final Demand and Jobless Claims data, as well as bond market developments. Not Investment Advice: Please note that the information and strategies shared in this newsletter are for informational and educational purposes only. They should not be considered investment advice, nor should they be used as a basis for making any investment decisions. Always consult a financial professional before making any investment decisions, and ensure you understand the risks involved in trading and investing.
CME_MINI:ES1!
by spytradingpro
Spot the Shift: Is Market Compression Leading to Big Move?SPDR S&P 500 FUTURES ( CME_MINI:ESM2023 ) & ETF ( AMEX:SPY ) - Market Update - 10/12/23 The trading session was a showcase of failed breakdowns. This reaffirmed that most local lows and highs are set with these failures. A key takeaway is that more trading doesn’t necessarily lead to more profits. The strategy that has proved most profitable is consistently stacking level-to-level gains and then getting out. As we've observed nearly every day since March, we're in a “buy dips regime” technically. This perspective has simplified trading for the past two months, as every 1-2 day dip has been bought. This past week, after a robust 100+ point vertical rally, the market has entered a consolidation phase, building a range with resistance at 4165 and support at around 4115. This range consolidation led to one of the tightest range weeks of 2023, with four daily candles stacking side by side. Market observers and traders are anticipating a big trend move due to the current compression in the market, which is likely to lead to expansion. In recent weeks, it has been crucial to trade from level to level, making terms like “bullish” or “bearish” less relevant for short-term traders. We've been in a 1.5 month consolidation within a strong bull trend, rallying 350 points from March 13th to mid-April and consolidating ever since. Current support and resistance levels lie at 4045 and 4230, respectively. Bull Case Holding key support levels is required for the bull case, with the potential for a breakout if these are maintained. Bear Case The bear case requires a fail of 4123-21, indicating potential for shorts. We are currently in a very tight, tactical range with low predictability. Economic Factors 

Turning our attention to economic factors, the producer price index, a measure of prices for final demand goods and services, increased 0.2%, which was less than the Dow Jones estimate for 0.3%. The headline PPI rose just 2.3%, down from 2.7% in March, marking the lowest reading since January 2021. Bonds In bond markets, U.S. Treasury yields were mixed on Thursday, as a report on wholesale prices confirmed inflation was slowing. The yield on the 10-year Treasury decreased 4.7 basis points at 3.392%, while the 2-year Treasury traded less than 1 basis point higher at 3.908%. Support Levels: 4134, 4121-4123, 4114 (broadening formation), 4106, 4090, 4078-82 (major), 4061 (major), 4040-45 (major), 4034, 4015-20 (major), 4010, 3980-83 (major) Resistance Levels: 4145 (major), 4153 (major), 4166, 4174, 4179-81 (major), 4190-93, 4200, 4209, 4218, 4225 (major), 4233 (broadening formation), 4243, 4250, 4262, 4275 (major) Final Thoughts Remember, more trading does not necessarily equate to more profits. Instead, a strategic approach—methodically stacking gains from level to level and knowing when to exit—will prove to be more profitable. We must always stay vigilant, adaptable, and patient in this dynamic market. We'll continue to provide regular updates and strategies to help you navigate these waters. Not Investment Advice: Please note that the information and strategies shared in this newsletter are for informational and educational purposes only. They should not be considered investment advice, nor should they be used as a basis for making any investment decisions. Always consult a financial professional before making any investment decisions, and ensure you understand the risks involved in trading and investing.
CME_MINI:ES1!Long
by spytradingpro
Elliott Wave Outlook: S&P-500 E-Mini (ES) Looking to Extend HighShort Term Elliott Wave View on S&P 500 E-Mini (ES) below shows that the Index ended wave 3 at 4206.25 and pullback in wave 4 is proposed complete at 4062.25. This view will get validation if the Index manages to break above wave 3. Internal subdivision of wave 4 unfolded as a double three Elliott Wave structure. Down from wave 3, wave (a) ended at 4176.25 and rally in wave (b) ended at 4191.50. Index resumed lower in wave (c) towards 4105.50 and this completed wave ((w)). Index then corrected in wave ((x)) towards 4167 with internal subdivision as a zigzag. Up from wave ((w)), wave (a) ended at 4154.5 and pullback in wave (b) ended at 4130.75. Wave (c) higher ended at 4167 which completed wave ((x)). Index resumed lower again in wave ((y)) with internal subdivision as a zigzag. Down from wave ((x)), wave (a) ended at 4075.5 and wave (b) rally ended at 4118. Index then resumes lower in wave (c) towards 4062.25 which completed wave ((y)) of 4. Index has since turned higher in wave 5 with internal subdivision as a 5 waves impulse. Up from wave 4, wave ((i)) ended at 4163.25. Pullback in wave ((ii)) ended at 4112.25 with internal structure of an expanded flat Near term, as far as pivot at 4062.25 low stays intact, expect the Index to extend higher.
CME_MINI:ES1!
by Elliottwave-Forecast
S&P 500 - Leading Diagonal May Be Among UsHey everyone, I wanted to give you all a technical update on the S&P 500 (SPX) as it's been moving sideways for a few weeks now, and it seems like it's not done yet. With a lot of options expiring today, we might see some volatility soon, but let's consider what the majority is currently thinking. According to the American Association of Individual Investors (AAII), we have 27% bullish sentiment, 37% neutral, and the remaining percentage is bearish. This is a change from just a couple of weeks ago, when 33% were bullish. The spread shows some greed, but not too much. We're right in the middle, which could mean a bit more sideways movement or even a slight upside in the short term. Now, let me give you a quick educational insight into a technical pattern called a leading diagonal. A leading diagonal is a type of impulsive wave structure that occurs in the first wave of a motive sequence. It consists of five subwaves, with the first, third, and fifth waves typically subdividing into three smaller waves. Looking at the SPX chart, you'll see a classic leading diagonal with all the subwaves fitting within it. If the SPX remains below 4170, the bearish count will be valid. I believe it's highly possible we revisit the 4120-4124 range before bouncing back up to around 4150 early next week. If the corrective structure I've projected plays out, we should see a more aggressive move to the downside by mid-week next week. Of course, many things still need to happen, but keep a close eye on the trendlines I've placed on the chart. Pay special attention to the leading diagonal in green, the support level in yellow, old support in red, and key resistance in orange. Don't forget the horizontal support and resistance that has been critical for more than just a few weeks, especially the 4130-4140 zone. We've been battling in this area for quite some time. Trade carefully, friends, and remember to always do your own research and manage your risk. I'll keep you all updated as things progress.
SP:SPXShort
by bitdoctor
2
SPX 500 Futures: Analyzing Price Movements and Predicting TrendsAs a trader, keeping an eye on market trends and understanding how to interpret them is crucial to making informed decisions. In this article, I'll explore the price movements of the S&P 500 (SPX) futures since the beginning of February 2023. Whether you're a beginner or an intermediate trader, this analysis will provide insights into the market's behavior and hopefully help you make better decisions for your portfolio. The Roller Coaster Ride: February to March 2023 At the beginning of February 2023, the ES futures hit a high near 4200, marking the start of a steep decline. The descent was impulsive, and prices dropped to almost 3800, stopping short by about 30 points. There are two ways to interpret the downward movement: either as a 5-wave structure or a 3-wave structure. The choppiness and overlap of the moves make it difficult to determine the exact structure, but one thing is clear: a significant bottom was reached around March 13, 2023, the same date as the bottom in 2020 . The Rebound and the Big Question Since that bottom, the ES futures have rebounded, practically returning to their starting point at 4200. Now, we face a critical question: what happens next? From a trading standpoint, it appears that we're in a rising wedge , forming an ending diagonal with multiple 3-wave structures. If the lower trendline is breached, the market could be on its way to testing 4000, or even lower . However, if the upper trendline is broken and the market surpasses 4200, a slow grind up to 4300-4500 is possible, although I'd give it a 20% chance at this point. Key Trendlines and Moving Averages Beneath the current market level, two significant trendlines exist . The first, originating from the October lows, sits around 3925 , while the second, from the COVID-19 lows, hovers around 3775 . Interestingly, the latter trendline coincides with the 200-week simple moving average . Making Bets: Bull or Bear? Regardless of whether you're bullish or bearish, it's evident that the market is in a compressing wedge , which will eventually break in one direction or the other. The decision you need to make is whether to place your bets now or wait for a break to occur. It's worth noting that while the market has risen significantly, it could fall just as quickly. Conversely, after a challenging 2022 for investors, the market could continue to rise. The key to longer-term upside potential lies in the VIX, which needs to stay below 20 for the slow grind rise . By examining the recent history of the SPX 500 futures and their current position within a compressing wedge, you can better prepare for potential shifts in the market. Whether you choose to place your bets now or wait for a break, staying informed and adaptable is crucial to successful trading.
CME_MINI:ES1!Short
by bitdoctor
6