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S&P 500 Futures: Fibonacci Levels and Upcoming TrendsS&P 500 futures are currently experiencing a pause due to Fibonacci extension targets, with a possible further upside move towards the 4100 level. A short-term cool down period and pullback is expected before potentially heading higher into mid-week next week. Keep an eye on the VIX for potential moves. I noticed an interesting battle around Fibonacci levels at the close on Thursday. There are a couple of pivotal points to consider. The first set of pivots are 3937 > 4033 > 3981, which create Fibonacci extension targets of 4079 and 4102. This likely explains the current pause in the market. Another layer of important pivots are 3839 > 4073 > 3937, which place a 61.8% Fibonacci extension target at 4084. This further reinforces the reason for the price action pause today. Based on this analysis, I expect that we're going to see a further upside move tomorrow, as there is still a decent amount of momentum behind this market movement. It seems likely that the 4100 level will be tapped. Numerous indicators are overbought on most timeframes, including higher timeframes such as the 4-hour and daily charts. The key takeaway is that a portion of the current correction appears to be almost complete, suggesting a cool down period as I mentioned yesterday. I anticipate a pullback to somewhere near 4000-4025 before heading higher into mid-week next week. As I've been discussing April 6th for a while now, this should serve as reinforcement. My projected path is up tomorrow, down on Monday/Tuesday, up on Wednesday/Thursday, and then I will determine what happens next. I'm also keeping an eye on the VIX. There is a possibility that it is bottoming out around 19 for now, with a potential move up to 25 in the coming weeks. However, it's important not to make hasty trading decisions based on this observation alone.
CME_MINI:ES1!
by bitdoctor
18
S&P 500 Update: Monitoring Key Developments in Early AprilThe S&P 500 Index (SPX) futures have recently deviated from prior expectations, exhibiting a lot of overlapping and corrective price action. This irregularity has led to uncertainty about the market's near-term direction. As we approach the end of the week, let's take a closer look at the anticipated trends and key levels to watch. Today's upward movement may entice many bullish traders, but a cool-off period seems more likely in the short term. I expect tomorrow's price action to decline, allowing the market to take a breather. Should the S&P 500 continue to rise, however, it could signal a significant bullish shift. As the week comes to a close, the index may experience a downward move, possibly reaching as low as 4000 or cutting short around 4010. A key trendline on the chart should offer some support during this period. Next week, my focus shifts to the April 6th target. The apex of the converging upper and lower trendlines forms a wedge, which I believe will be broken in an upward direction. This coincidental alignment with my April 6th target demands attention. Once the market moves above the wedge, I anticipate a considerable decline either on April 6th or in the following days. While I won't disclose my downside target yet, I predict a potential spike in the CBOE Volatility Index (VIX) if the S&P 500 declines after April 6th. You should closely monitor the VIX and the ProShares Ultra VIX Short-Term Futures ETF (UVXY), which could exceed $6 within the next 3-4 weeks if my projections are accurate. I urge traders to exercise caution, avoid overleveraging, and remain adaptive to market changes. It's crucial to remember that the market controls your actions, not the other way around. Stay alert and prepared to adjust your strategy as necessary, and always trade carefully.
CME_MINI:ES1!
by bitdoctor
2
SPX Futures: Navigating the Current Market PhaseI'd like to examine the recent performance of the S&P 500 Index (SPX) futures and provide a simplified analysis. I initially targeted the 3990 level for SPX futures, but the market fell slightly short of this target. It's still possible (and likely) that we could see a move down to this level (or 3970-3980) in the near future. The current market movement appears to be corrective, and since March 13, we've been in a predominantly corrective phase. As long as SPX futures high of around 4075 holds, we can expect a downward move towards 3750. Identifying invalidation levels (points at which a specific analysis or trading strategy is no longer valid) is crucial for long-term success in this consolidating market. Trading options has been challenging for inexperienced traders, as theta decay (the decrease in an option's value as time passes) is working against them. My current expectation is for a move to the 3970-3980 range short-term, followed by a return to around 4050 in a few trading sessions. Take the market one day at a time, but keep in mind that reaching the 4050 level presents an excellent opportunity to establish a short position with a clear invalidation level and manageable risk. The risk-reward ratio is favorable here, as a drop to 3750 would represent a move of over 200 points. Keep in mind that this shift might not happen quickly, and for now, trading futures contracts may be a more suitable approach. Make sure you understand how futures trading works before diving in head first. Always monitor market developments closely and be prepared to adjust your strategy based on new information. It's essential to balance risk and reward while considering the current market phase and your own trading experience.
CME_MINI:ES1!Short
by bitdoctor
Deciphering: Analyzing Leading Diagonal Patterns and Key LevelsThe financial markets are a complex ecosystem where a multitude of factors influence the movement of securities. One of the key aspects of understanding market dynamics is recognizing patterns and monitoring key levels that can indicate possible future trends. In this article, I will discuss the leading diagonal pattern, its importance in technical analysis, and compare the ES futures to the SPX cash index. I will also delve into the significance of key levels and how they are essential for identifying support and resistance. Leading Diagonal: A Brief Overview A leading diagonal is a specific pattern in the Elliott Wave Theory, a form of technical analysis used to predict market trends by identifying recurring wave patterns. The leading diagonal pattern is typically found in the initial wave of a new trend and is characterized by a five-wave structure, with each wave subdividing into three smaller waves. This creates a 5-3-5-3-5 pattern, indicating that the market is likely to experience a significant trend reversal. In my analysis of the ES futures and the SPX cash index, it appears that we have observed a leading diagonal pattern, which may suggest a short-term bottom and a potential upside move in the coming weeks. Comparing ES Futures and SPX Cash Index When analyzing market trends, it is crucial to understand that different instruments may display different chart patterns. In our case, the ES futures and SPX cash index exhibit a disparity due to contango, a situation where the futures price is higher than the spot price. This results in the futures chart looking somewhat different when compared to the cash index. Nevertheless, it is essential to take both into consideration when making predictions about the market's direction. The Importance of Key Levels Key levels in technical analysis are price points that serve as significant support or resistance areas for a financial instrument. They are essential for identifying potential entry and exit points in trades and can help determine if a trend will continue or reverse. In my analysis of the ES futures, we are currently sitting at the 3967 level, which is an important support level. If the market breaks below this level, it could drop down to the next key level around 3925 before making a corrective move up to the 4000-4010 area. Observing these levels allows you to make informed decisions on when to enter or exit positions based on market behavior. In the current scenario, the leading diagonal pattern suggests that we may see a short-term bottom soon, followed by a corrective move up and potential further downside. Keeping an eye on key levels, such as 3967 and 3925, will help us determine potential support and resistance areas, which in turn can guide our trading decisions. Moving forward, it is important to continually monitor the market and adjust your analysis based on new information, always taking into account both the futures and cash indices to get a comprehensive understanding of market dynamics since futures trades ~23/5 and the cash indicies do not. By staying vigilant and utilizing the principles of technical analysis, such as leading diagonal patterns and key levels, you can better navigate the ever-changing landscape of the financial markets. This approach, combined with other fundamental and technical indicators, can provide a solid foundation for making informed decisions and managing risk in an often unpredictable environment.
CME_MINI:ES1!
by bitdoctor
SPX - Mastering the Market's Mood SwingsI previously discussed the likelihood of the S&P 500 Index (SPX) experiencing a rebound towards the 4000-4050 range, with particular attention given to the 4020-4040 level. The index indeed reached approximately 4039 before encountering a substantial pullback. Trading on such days can be complex, and if you're not positioned correctly and overleveraged, you may face considerable losses. Notably, the SPX nearly reached the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement level, which stands at 4043. As we move forward, we can anticipate increased volatility with alternating bullish and bearish movements over the next two weeks. This presents lucrative opportunities for traders, which I intend to exploit. In the past, I've examined the intersection of downtrend and uptrend lines, and when these lines crossed without any release of pressure, I accurately predicted the market's continued sideways movement. This situation remains valid, with the market exhibiting wild price fluctuations. For the short term, I project that the SPX will decline to roughly 3900 by Friday (and possibly lower into next week) before rebounding in the first week of April. Monitor April 6th closely, as it may serve as a pivotal point in the market's trajectory. If the market is in a downward trend approaching the full moon, anticipate a significant upward shift, but if it's in an upward trend, expect a substantial downward movement. Lastly, I'd like to mention the Wave Master Indicator, a tool I developed and have been utilizing in my trading endeavors for years. On the 1-hour SPX chart, the Wave Master Indicator suggests a short-term bearish outlook. In a previous analysis, I highlighted the 4-hour chart, which indicated a potential upward move heading into the FOMC meeting. However, the longer-term indicators were pointing towards a downward trend. This is precisely what happened. Remember that the stock market can be unpredictable, much like the weather. So here's a little joke to lighten the mood: Why did the stock market investor go broke? He tried to catch a falling knife and got cut! Stay sharp and happy trading!
SP:SPXShort
by bitdoctor
#ES_F 3.22.23 Day Trading PrepFED Day! Market might be gearing up for a big move today, on a bigger timeframe we found our top, found or low and now back to the middle of the range. Yesterday showed us that we still have buyers but most of the buyers right now are large short covering and momentum longs from Daily Support which puts us in interesting spot. Currently over 4012-3990 Daily Support inside Previous Days Range and looks like accepted in a bigger 4100-4000 range which to me says possibility that we push higher before or on the Fed BUT I also think that is a spot where we can find size sellers as well and if we will have Supply this thing is not held up by much Support IF 4012-3890 breaks and take out 3976-71 thing could get ugly to the downside with lower Daily Support to watch at 3915-3890 and if things get ugly to 3800-3790 but that only happens I think IF we do make a push towards 4084-4100 and cant hold/reverse. Currently we are in this 4046-4000 range if we can hold 4030-25 possibly move towards that 4061-46 area and then we can watching if we can continue out of it before the fed or not and if we fail to hold 4030-25 could head for our lower support. Levels to Watch Resistance : Key Daily 4123-4100 Key Intraday 4123-19 // 4103-4099 // 4084-77 Current 4046-42 For Continuation Higher 4061-56 Support : Key Daily 4012-3980 // 3915-3890 // 3810-3790 Key Intraday 4030-25 // 3994-90 // 3976-71 Current 4030-25 ?
CME_MINI:ES1!
by HollowMn
Rally in $SPX Expected to Fail According to Elliott WaveS&P 500 (SPX) rally from 10.13.2022 low was in 3 swing and ended wave (2) at 4194.16 as the 1 hour chart below shows. Wave (3) lower is now in progress as a 5 waves impulse Elliott Wave structure. Down from wave (2), wave ((i)) ended at 3943.08 and rally in wave ((ii)) ended at 4078.49. The Index extended lower again in wave ((iii)) towards 3842.91 and rally in wave ((iv)) ended at 3937.27. Final leg lower wave ((v)) ended at 3838.24 which completed wave 1. Wave 2 rally is now in progress to correct cycle from 2.3.2023 high. Internal of wave 2 is in progress as a zigzag Elliott Wave structure. Up from wave 1, wave ((a)) ended at 3964.46 and pullback in wave ((b)) ended at 3901.27. Final leg higher wave ((c)) is in progress to correct cycle from 2.3.2023 high before the decline resumes. Potential target higher is 100% – 161.8% Fibonacci extension of wave ((a)). The area comes at 4030.8 – 4110.1. From this area, sellers can appear and the Index can resume lower again. As far as pivot at 4194.16 high stays intact, expect rally to fail in 3, 7, or 11 swing for further downside.
SP:SPX
by Elliottwave-Forecast
1
#ES_F 3.15.23 Day Trading Prep Tuesday 3.14.23 Review : We were looking for possible lower continuation but market had other plans, as we noted IF 3892-87 holds and we can get over 3932-27 we can see a push into upper Supply area, I didnt see it pushing that much in but what we did is we took it, held over it and then rejected from next Key area which was even better. If long to supply was missed there was a nice trade from 3976-71 -57-53 back towards the value at 3932-27 which we broke into but got short covering end of day back into Resistance. Wednesday 3.15.23 Prep : Globex opened in the 3957-44 Supply area, we pushed above sold into the stop run and dropped the bid. Once we broke 3944-40 and broke inside 3931-3892 we went straight to the bottom which is telling us not that much support there, all of our buyers are under 3870. We now have short covering here at the bottom of Daily Support, things are looking like we could at least continue towards our 3866-47 target and possibly a break below? We are under Previous Day Range but inside T2 range, IF we fail to get back inside Previous Days range and hold under 3892-87 that might give us the move lower and if we can break 3853-47 T2 low and 3839-35 would be our targets, if selling is strong we can continue lower our next Daily Support is 3809-3787 we can see buyers around there or before. IF we end up holding 3878-74 // 3866-63 we could see a move back over 3892-87 where we can target Previous Day low and then watch if we accept back in it to continue higher towards Supply but for now Supply is above us and buyers are under 3870-50-30 Levels to Watch Resistance : Key Daily 3957-53 Key Intraday 3915-10 // 3932-27 // 3944-40 Current 3901-3898 3892-87? Support : Key Daily 3866-3847 Next Daily 3809-3787 Key Intraday 3878-74 // 3853-47 // 3839-35 // 3809-05
CME_MINI:ES1!
by HollowMn
#ES_F 3.13.23 Day Trading Prep Friday 3.10.23 Review : Friday played out exactly within plan except for hitting 3866-47 target but we knew that was a stretch, we found sellers at 3976-71 which was Key Intraday Resistance which gave us nice short trades towards Daily Support at 3915-3890, was a very nice ending to the week. Monday 3.13.23 Prep : As we can see Globex started the party early, first we opened and got a big move away from Daily Support which is expected any first tests of big areas more often than now will give a good reaction, we hit 3976-71 area sold our position on the way there and introduced more supply. Currently we are under T2 Range and under quite a bit of Supply still, there is no data or events today but we are at possible Daily Support area so if we get continuation how much of it will we get? We have 3915-3890 as our Key Daily Resistance and holding under could bring continued weakness, if we do hol dunder and take out 3878-74 that opens the door for our lower Support and 3853-47 test, if that breaks we watch for continuation towards our next Daily Support at 3809-3787 but could see buying come in before that around 35-25 area unless we are going down on strong volume and will just take those areas out. For us to see stability today we need to hold this 3866-53 area and push back inside previous days range but for now signs are pointing towards the downside unless the RTH order flow tells us otherwise. Levels to Watch Resistance : Key Daily 3915-3890 Key Intraday 3915-10 // 3931-27 3944-40 Current 3892-87? 3901-98 Support : Next Daily 3809-3787 Key Intraday 3866-63 // 3853-47 // 3839-35 // 3809-05 Current 3878-74? 3866-63 *** Careful trading today market has been acting weird since globex, we are at an area of bigger support so we have buyers BUT we also have size coming out and possible continuation to margin calls or size getting out unless we can hold this support area.
CME_MINI:ES1!
by HollowMn
SPX has many options to choose fromJack is back! Jack has been trading the S&P 500 for years and knows that there are always many options to choose from when it came to making a trade. He watches the market closely, paying attention to the resistance and support levels that he knew could make or break his decisions. One day, Jack noticed that there was significant resistance near the 4050-4080 range , which is near the 61.8% golden zone rejection area. He knew that if the market couldn't break through that range, it would continue to look bearish. However, Jack also knew that if they could break through that range, there was a high degree of possibility that the market would climb to 4300 in the next few weeks. Jack also knows that there is significant support at 3800 , and he knows that if the market dropped to that level, it would be a good opportunity to buy more stocks at a lower price to hold for a few weeks. Jack is keeping an open mind when it comes to the wedge formation, but he knows that it is only a projection and not the primary count. He understands that projections are based on assumptions and could be unreliable, and that it is too early to make any predictions on a wedge trade. Instead, Jack is monitoring the market closely, keeping an eye on any changes in the resistance and support levels. He knows that it is important to stay informed and make informed decisions based on the current state of the market, rather than relying on projections or assumptions. While the wedge formation is an interesting development, Jack is careful not to let it cloud his judgment or influence his trading decisions until more concrete evidence is available.
CME_MINI:ES1!
by bitdoctor
2
#ES_F 3.10.23 Day Trading Prep Thursday 3.09.23 Review : Yday RTH gave a perfect trade, we pushed over 3995-90 on pre market data, hit the upper part of our potential Daily Resistance and Key Intraday Resistance 4012-08, pushed above it and failed giving us a nice trade down to Key Intraday Support, once we broke we got a nice move down to 2 of the lower Support targets and hit our Daily Support that we were looking for. Friday 3.10.23 Prep : Contract rolled over, we are at Daily Support and its Friday with data coming here which tells us could be a wild day and maybe hard to trade. This week felt like a lot of work but a good trading week over all so will look to not get involved much today and maybe try to wait for that 1-2 good set ups once I see what we are working with. Very possible to see continuation under 3915 today as we cleaned out a lot of buyers from below if we have Supply to come out we could see this 3915-3890 Support break and get some continuation under it, IF we take out Prev Day Low we have 3901-3890 as an area to watch for hold or continuation from that we watch 3878-74 and 3866-53 areas for continuation IF things get crazy next Daily Support is 3809-3787. If we do run out of Supply today and more sellers dont come in we could see a push back towards T2 low and see if we can push back inside to accept but if not then we might need to go look for the bid again. Levels to Watch Resistance : Daily 4012-3990 Key Intraday 3976-71 // 3957-53 Key For Continuation Higher 3995-90 Support : Daily 3915-3890 Next Daily 3809-3790 Key Intraday 3937-27 // 3914-10 Current 3944-40 ***** This Prep is done on new contract price
CME_MINI:ES1!
by HollowMn
SPY Setting up for a bounce soonOnce there was a guy who talked about an outcome that nobody believed in. He was laughed at and ridiculed for his ideas. He tried to explain his point of view, but people dismissed him and thought he was foolish. However, he remained persistent in his beliefs and continued to speak about his theory. Then one day, something happened that proved him right, and suddenly, nobody was laughing anymore. They realized that they had been wrong and that the guy had been right all along. The guy's persistence and belief in his ideas had paid off, and he was now recognized for his unique and innovative thinking. Oh wait. That guy is me. We're likely going to bounce soon, though. Look at the fib measurements I'm providing in this chart. We tapped the 100% extension perfectly. This does look wave 3-ish so be cautiously optimistic. I discussed 3900 in a recent video as well. Well, here we are. Almost 150 points lower from my previous idea that I shared here that was laughed at. But seriously - look at that perfect bounce off the 100. Probably just a bounce, but a bounce will come overnight, then tomorrow when NFP is released... we'll see if this is a wave 3 or not.
CME_MINI:ES1!
by bitdoctor
#ES_F 3.09.23 Day Trading Prep Wednesday 3.08.23 Review : Consolidated under previous Daily Support with a few attempts to break 3976-71 Key Intraday Support but we held within this 4015-3975 balance. Best trade was when we hit double top in E 11:30 Period, gave a nice trade down to Intraday Support, was thinking we fill finally have more supply to break and continue but so far that has not been the case which tells us its controlled mark down selling with stops at good support areas. Thursday 3.09.23 Prep : Will see continuation lower today or do we have enough to again hold and maybe even push higher? We have been holding under Previous Daily Support of 4012-3990 for two days now with Supply trapped above. We are looking like we could see more selling today as we are at the T2 and Previous Day Lows, under Previous Daily Support, have Supply above and have this nice sideways action to built up, 3976-71 is again our Key Intraday Support to watch as that is the area we need to take out and accept under to see a move towards next potential Support to see what we do there. If we do hold Intraday Support or bounce from 3957-53 area and get back over 3976-71 then we could see more balancing action in this 4025-3976 range, 3995-90 is our Current Resistance and 4012-08 will be our Key Resistance today. Levels to Watch Resistance : Daily 4012-3990 Key Intraday 4012-08 // 4030-25 Current 3995-90 Support : Daily 3915-3890 Key Intraday 3976-71 // 3957-53
CME_MINI:ES1!
by HollowMn
#ES_F 3.08.23 Day Trading Prep Tuesday 3.07.23 Review : Tuesday Globex went sideways all night building up supply under resistance until it finally broke before RTH giving us a break under 4030-25 and acceptance into 4025-3976 range and a move into Potential Daily Support for the Day. We did hold 3994-90 level yesterday but we did a full break of this Daily 4012-3890 area which told us buyers here are not that strong and we now have more Supply above us from this move up. Wednesday 3.08.23 Prep : Globex again went sideways all night in a tighter range and it also went sideways building up Supply around the lower apart of our Potential Daily Support from yesterday making it our potential Resistance going forward? Depending what we do today but this could have been a retest and fail of Previous Daily Support 4012-3890 and we know short covering front ran our Daily target of 3915-3890 last week, will we get continuation towards it today? Will we hold around this Daily balance or will Powell and 10am Data come in and bring in some buyers? So far things are pointing to continuation lower, we are Under T2 range we are right at Previous Days Low which will be area to watch with 3976-71. If we can get under Previous Days range and accept under 3976-71 we can see a move towards our next Daily Support at 3915-3890. If we do manage to hold we could stay in this 3970-4025 range trading inside it unless 10am data comes and brings in buyers to get us back over 4012-08 and 4030-25 so far we do have plenty of Supply above it seems. Levels to Watch Resistance : Key Daily 4012-3890 Key Intraday 4012-08 // 4030-25 Key For Continuation Higher 4046-42 Support : Next Daily 3915-3890 Key Intraday 3976-71 Key For Continuation Lower 3957-53 *** We Have Data at 815 and 10am Need to be cautious around those times as moves could be violent and it could go either way fast or wont pick direction until after
CME_MINI:ES1!
by HollowMn
Stock Market Pivot IncomingThe market sways and shifts its course, Pivoting with great force, A dance of bulls and bears, With twists and turns that no one dares. Investors and traders are closely watching SPY SPX QQQ and NDX as they approach an important supply level, anticipating a potential pivot to the downside. This key level is viewed as a point of resistance where selling pressure may increase and buyers may become less willing to continue buying at higher prices. If the market fails to break through this fibonacci level and instead begins to retreat, it could signal a shift in sentiment and a potential reversal in trend. As a result, many market participants are preparing for a potential downside move by adjusting their portfolios and risk management strategies, while also keeping a close eye on other key indicators and technical levels to confirm any potential shifts in market direction. I plan to watch for a reversal incoming at the coveted 61.8% fibonacci level as the primary area of supply and watching for a move down to 3900. That's a significant move from here if I'm being honest with you. Watch key indicators and note that the 4h wave master has significant hidden bearish divergence forming. The green wave is the highest it has been since January 9th. The momentum indicator is also red as well. Be careful friends.
CME_MINI:ES1!Short
by bitdoctor
3
#ES_F 3.07.23 Day Trading Prep Monday 3.06.23 Review : Globex pushed us into the resistance area at 4061-56, RTH Opened on Gap up and buyers came in for continuation, we hit our upper early in the day and then consolidated below it. 4084-77 was our key area for continuation higher and we failed to take it out and showed weakness at it instead, until we built up enough Supply which gave us a nice short trade towards Previous Days range. Tuesday 3.07.23 Prep : Are we getting any move out today or staying in balance? We have Powell doing something at 10 and we are at an important location, we have few weeks of Supply above us over 4084 - 4100 and we possibly trapped enough shorts under 4030 - 4015 to give us Support. These are the areas to watch for a move out of this current 4077-4030 range. We have been going sideways in smaller range all night around this 4061-56 Resistance area and we have to see what we do from here. We are right in the middle of the range inside yesterdays value which tells us it could be choppy and also the range has been tight so far which is not ideal for trading until that changes. 4084-77 is still our Key Resistance for continuation higher and any break down would need to break and accept under 4030-25 for continuation, until then can stay in balance. Levels to Watch Resistance : Key Daily 4103-4084 Key Intraday 4084-77 // 4103-4099 Current 4061-56 Support : Key Daily 4012-3990 Key Intraday 4030-25 // 4012-08 Current 4046-42
CME_MINI:ES1!
by HollowMn
#ES_F 3.06.23 Day Trading Prep Friday 3.03.23 Review : Friday Globex consolidated at Previous Day High, took the stops at night and we opened on a gap up over Previous Day High in RTH. Failed to closed the gap and gave a push towards the upper resistance target and a move above it into the next Supply area. Monday 3.06.23 Prep : What are our options today, Will this move higher hold and we can continue today? Was this short covering move front running bigger support and we will continue lower today to find more buyers or do we need to balance again before deciding next bigger direction? Globex is building stops above Previous day high inside our Supply possible Resistance area, we are under Daily Resistance with few weeks of Supply above that we have already flushed but not everyone sells at once. We are inside Previous Days Range, above T2 range with not much Support below us which means size will break the lower levels if we find sellers up here today. If we dont have size sellers come in today at these higher areas and we can hold above 4030-25 and 4046-42 then we could see another attempt at 4061-56 and next resistance area above. If we fail to get over and Previous Day high and hold/continue higher we could see a move down towards Previous Day Half Back under 4030-25 level, that would be key area for continuation lower today, we do have some support under but if size sellers come in we can see us head for the Daily area we just broke out of around 4012-3990 which is also our T2 High area, if we do get there that would be the area to watch for acceptance in T2 range and continuation lower. Currently we are in 4077-4030 range and if we arent going to make a move out then we could also trade within this area from the edges. Levels to Watch Resistance : Key Daily 4100-4084 // 4084-61 Key Intraday 4061-56 Key For Continuation Higher 4084-77 Support : Key Daily 4012-3990 Next Daily 3915-3890 Key Intraday 4030-25 // 4012-08 Key For Continuation Lower 3994-88 // 3976-71
CME_MINI:ES1!
by HollowMn
#ES_F 3.03.23 Day Trading Prep 3.02.23 Review : Globex broke 57-44 Support area and was holding under before RTH signaling weakness but that and 32-27 were important areas to stay under and break, RTH Open failed to break 32-27 then we got over 3944-40 and per our morning prep IF we hold 32-27 and managed to get over 44-40 and hold that opens the door for higher resistance target and we got a move back towards our Daily Resistance area around 3990. We failed to tag next Daily Support which tells us we got front ran by short covering. 3.03.23 Prep: Did we run out of supply and now ready to either hold or continue higher? Or was this move inventory correction from Wednesday close and short covering before Daily Support and we will head for that area again? Right now we are holding in our Daily Resistance area of 4012-3990, this and 3976-71 will be important areas to hold today for either balance or continuation over 4012 towards 4030. If we fail to accept in 4012-3990 area and get under it that will signal weakness and a possible move wards 3976-71 where we don't have as much Support under, if that breaks we can see a move lower again to test our T2 and Previous Days lows and possibly look below them. If we do hold 76-71 and are able to stay over 94-90 we can see a move higher towards the top of Daily Resistance at 4012-08 where we would watch for continuation above or not, that will be our Key Resistance area for today. Levels to Watch Resistance : Key Daily 4012-3990 Key Intraday 4012-08 Key For Continuation Higher 4030-25 Support : Key Daily 3915-3890 Key Intraday 3976-71 Current 3994-90 ? Key For Continuation 3957-53
CME_MINI:ES1!
by HollowMn
#ES_F 3.02.23 Day Trading Prep 3.01.23 Review : Wednesday RTH Opened under 3976-71 which signaled possible move to our lower targets, we did do a full break of our 3957-44 Support area and tagged our target but did not see the full move down towards 3931-27. This is area of cost basis for size traders so we expect to see balancing action and buying around our Support areas, especially on first tests and so far selling is mechanical so we aren't breaking multiple areas at once. 3.02.23 Prep : Globex broke 3957-53 and sold off down to our 3932-31 target where we found Support. Currently we are in this 3955-25 balance under the supply from previous days, inventory is short from yesterdays close, we are under T2 range and trying to hold inside Previous Days Range. We are getting into next Daily Support area here so very possible to see stronger buyers and at the same time we have plenty of supply above still coming out it looks like, will we get continuation through our next Daily Support area today? or will we hold this current balance and maybe try to make a push back over 3957-53? So far looks like we are looking good for possible continuation but as we saw for past weeks it hasn't been easy and things have been taking a long time to set up and show direction unless we switch it up today. This 3957-44 area will be our Key Resistance today, holding under means continued weakness and can bring on a test of 3932-27, If we managed to break that we have juicy stops lined up below ready to be filled down to 3892 as that is the next Daily cost basis low. If we do accept back in Previous days range and can hold over 3944-40 that can give us a push back over this resistance area and we could look for higher targets but until then we should be expecting some balance at the lows or continuation. Levels to Watch Resistance : Key Daily 3957-44 Key Intraday 3957-53 // 3944-40 Key For Continuation Higher 3976-71 Support : Key Daily 3915-3890 Key Intraday 3937-27 Key For Continuation Lower 3915-10 *** We are Under a lot of supply and only buyers are shorts who are covering, if shorts see more supply they will drop the bid. IF we do happen to get down to 3900 area today with time left, IF 3890 breaks not much support there until 3870 and under.
CME_MINI:ES1!
by HollowMn
ES_F 3.01.23 Day Trading Prep 2.28.23 Review : Tuesday Globex made a push back inside Previous Daily Support area of 4012-3990 before RTH where we found Supply and got our move towards 3976-71 where we found buyers first time around but managed to break it towards end of day. 3.01.23 Prep : Was end of day flush yesterday a move to take in more supply at lower prices and we can hold in balance today with possible move back inside Previous Daily Support and over? or will we see some continuation to Yesterday? Price has been holding under Daily Support which is signaling weakness but we can see we still have buying every push lower. Globex did give us open continue to yesterdays shorts, tagging our lower Support where we again found buyers to get us back over 3976-71. Today holding above 3976-71 which be somewhat of stability for us and if we can see a move over 3994-90 and accept back in Daily Support we could see a move back towards Previous Day high and possibly over towards our bigger supply area above. IF We fail to get back over 3994-90 and make a move under 3975-71 We are watching to see if we can make a move under Previous Day low towards lower Support and if we can hold under 76-71 a possible move towards the other side of that range towards 3944-40 // 3937-27 where we would watch for next reaction. Levels to Watch : Resistance - Key Daily 4012-3990 Key Intraday 4012-08 // 3994-90 Key For Continuation Higher 4030-27 Support - Key Daily 3930-3890 Key Intraday 3976-71 Key For Continuation Lower 3957-53 // 3944-40
CME_MINI:ES1!
by HollowMn