$ES Area of interestCurrent areas of interest for $ES. Price may revisit these areas in future sessions.
Es_f
S&P 500 - Leading Diagonal May Be Among UsHey everyone, I wanted to give you all a technical update on the S&P 500 (SPX) as it's been moving sideways for a few weeks now, and it seems like it's not done yet. With a lot of options expiring today, we might see some volatility soon, but let's consider what the majority is currently thinking.
According to the American Association of Individual Investors (AAII), we have 27% bullish sentiment, 37% neutral, and the remaining percentage is bearish. This is a change from just a couple of weeks ago, when 33% were bullish. The spread shows some greed, but not too much. We're right in the middle, which could mean a bit more sideways movement or even a slight upside in the short term.
Now, let me give you a quick educational insight into a technical pattern called a leading diagonal. A leading diagonal is a type of impulsive wave structure that occurs in the first wave of a motive sequence. It consists of five subwaves, with the first, third, and fifth waves typically subdividing into three smaller waves.
Looking at the SPX chart, you'll see a classic leading diagonal with all the subwaves fitting within it. If the SPX remains below 4170, the bearish count will be valid. I believe it's highly possible we revisit the 4120-4124 range before bouncing back up to around 4150 early next week. If the corrective structure I've projected plays out, we should see a more aggressive move to the downside by mid-week next week.
Of course, many things still need to happen, but keep a close eye on the trendlines I've placed on the chart. Pay special attention to the leading diagonal in green, the support level in yellow, old support in red, and key resistance in orange. Don't forget the horizontal support and resistance that has been critical for more than just a few weeks, especially the 4130-4140 zone. We've been battling in this area for quite some time.
Trade carefully, friends, and remember to always do your own research and manage your risk. I'll keep you all updated as things progress.
SPX 500 Futures: Analyzing Price Movements and Predicting TrendsAs a trader, keeping an eye on market trends and understanding how to interpret them is crucial to making informed decisions. In this article, I'll explore the price movements of the S&P 500 (SPX) futures since the beginning of February 2023. Whether you're a beginner or an intermediate trader, this analysis will provide insights into the market's behavior and hopefully help you make better decisions for your portfolio.
The Roller Coaster Ride: February to March 2023
At the beginning of February 2023, the ES futures hit a high near 4200, marking the start of a steep decline. The descent was impulsive, and prices dropped to almost 3800, stopping short by about 30 points. There are two ways to interpret the downward movement: either as a 5-wave structure or a 3-wave structure. The choppiness and overlap of the moves make it difficult to determine the exact structure, but one thing is clear: a significant bottom was reached around March 13, 2023, the same date as the bottom in 2020 .
The Rebound and the Big Question
Since that bottom, the ES futures have rebounded, practically returning to their starting point at 4200. Now, we face a critical question: what happens next? From a trading standpoint, it appears that we're in a rising wedge , forming an ending diagonal with multiple 3-wave structures. If the lower trendline is breached, the market could be on its way to testing 4000, or even lower . However, if the upper trendline is broken and the market surpasses 4200, a slow grind up to 4300-4500 is possible, although I'd give it a 20% chance at this point.
Key Trendlines and Moving Averages
Beneath the current market level, two significant trendlines exist . The first, originating from the October lows, sits around 3925 , while the second, from the COVID-19 lows, hovers around 3775 . Interestingly, the latter trendline coincides with the 200-week simple moving average .
Making Bets: Bull or Bear?
Regardless of whether you're bullish or bearish, it's evident that the market is in a compressing wedge , which will eventually break in one direction or the other. The decision you need to make is whether to place your bets now or wait for a break to occur. It's worth noting that while the market has risen significantly, it could fall just as quickly. Conversely, after a challenging 2022 for investors, the market could continue to rise. The key to longer-term upside potential lies in the VIX, which needs to stay below 20 for the slow grind rise .
By examining the recent history of the SPX 500 futures and their current position within a compressing wedge, you can better prepare for potential shifts in the market. Whether you choose to place your bets now or wait for a break, staying informed and adaptable is crucial to successful trading.
4240+ incomingPrice is basing and holding the 4100 level nicely and staying within this latest uptrend. We had a break of the larger uptrend (the red channel), so price typically wants to make a newer high (4240+). Price has also broken 4150 which was shown to be resistance, and is now holding. I'd like to see price continue to hold 4150. If it does, I believe we'll see a new high of 4240+ within the next two weeks.
If we can't hold 4100, 4072/4050 are next levels down.
$SPY: Risk onDaily trend turning bullish again in $SPY here...Let's see how it goes. FOMC tomorrow, hopefully things stay the course.
Best of luck!
Cheers,
Ivan Labrie.
S&P 500 Futures: Fibonacci Levels and Upcoming TrendsS&P 500 futures are currently experiencing a pause due to Fibonacci extension targets, with a possible further upside move towards the 4100 level. A short-term cool down period and pullback is expected before potentially heading higher into mid-week next week. Keep an eye on the VIX for potential moves.
I noticed an interesting battle around Fibonacci levels at the close on Thursday. There are a couple of pivotal points to consider. The first set of pivots are 3937 > 4033 > 3981, which create Fibonacci extension targets of 4079 and 4102. This likely explains the current pause in the market.
Another layer of important pivots are 3839 > 4073 > 3937, which place a 61.8% Fibonacci extension target at 4084. This further reinforces the reason for the price action pause today.
Based on this analysis, I expect that we're going to see a further upside move tomorrow, as there is still a decent amount of momentum behind this market movement. It seems likely that the 4100 level will be tapped. Numerous indicators are overbought on most timeframes, including higher timeframes such as the 4-hour and daily charts.
The key takeaway is that a portion of the current correction appears to be almost complete, suggesting a cool down period as I mentioned yesterday. I anticipate a pullback to somewhere near 4000-4025 before heading higher into mid-week next week. As I've been discussing April 6th for a while now, this should serve as reinforcement. My projected path is up tomorrow, down on Monday/Tuesday, up on Wednesday/Thursday, and then I will determine what happens next.
I'm also keeping an eye on the VIX. There is a possibility that it is bottoming out around 19 for now, with a potential move up to 25 in the coming weeks. However, it's important not to make hasty trading decisions based on this observation alone.
S&P 500 Update: Monitoring Key Developments in Early AprilThe S&P 500 Index (SPX) futures have recently deviated from prior expectations, exhibiting a lot of overlapping and corrective price action. This irregularity has led to uncertainty about the market's near-term direction. As we approach the end of the week, let's take a closer look at the anticipated trends and key levels to watch.
Today's upward movement may entice many bullish traders, but a cool-off period seems more likely in the short term. I expect tomorrow's price action to decline, allowing the market to take a breather. Should the S&P 500 continue to rise, however, it could signal a significant bullish shift.
As the week comes to a close, the index may experience a downward move, possibly reaching as low as 4000 or cutting short around 4010. A key trendline on the chart should offer some support during this period.
Next week, my focus shifts to the April 6th target. The apex of the converging upper and lower trendlines forms a wedge, which I believe will be broken in an upward direction. This coincidental alignment with my April 6th target demands attention. Once the market moves above the wedge, I anticipate a considerable decline either on April 6th or in the following days.
While I won't disclose my downside target yet, I predict a potential spike in the CBOE Volatility Index (VIX) if the S&P 500 declines after April 6th. You should closely monitor the VIX and the ProShares Ultra VIX Short-Term Futures ETF (UVXY), which could exceed $6 within the next 3-4 weeks if my projections are accurate.
I urge traders to exercise caution, avoid overleveraging, and remain adaptive to market changes. It's crucial to remember that the market controls your actions, not the other way around. Stay alert and prepared to adjust your strategy as necessary, and always trade carefully.
SPX Futures: Navigating the Current Market PhaseI'd like to examine the recent performance of the S&P 500 Index (SPX) futures and provide a simplified analysis.
I initially targeted the 3990 level for SPX futures, but the market fell slightly short of this target. It's still possible (and likely) that we could see a move down to this level (or 3970-3980) in the near future. The current market movement appears to be corrective, and since March 13, we've been in a predominantly corrective phase.
As long as SPX futures high of around 4075 holds, we can expect a downward move towards 3750. Identifying invalidation levels (points at which a specific analysis or trading strategy is no longer valid) is crucial for long-term success in this consolidating market. Trading options has been challenging for inexperienced traders, as theta decay (the decrease in an option's value as time passes) is working against them.
My current expectation is for a move to the 3970-3980 range short-term, followed by a return to around 4050 in a few trading sessions. Take the market one day at a time, but keep in mind that reaching the 4050 level presents an excellent opportunity to establish a short position with a clear invalidation level and manageable risk. The risk-reward ratio is favorable here, as a drop to 3750 would represent a move of over 200 points. Keep in mind that this shift might not happen quickly, and for now, trading futures contracts may be a more suitable approach. Make sure you understand how futures trading works before diving in head first.
Always monitor market developments closely and be prepared to adjust your strategy based on new information. It's essential to balance risk and reward while considering the current market phase and your own trading experience.
Deciphering: Analyzing Leading Diagonal Patterns and Key LevelsThe financial markets are a complex ecosystem where a multitude of factors influence the movement of securities. One of the key aspects of understanding market dynamics is recognizing patterns and monitoring key levels that can indicate possible future trends. In this article, I will discuss the leading diagonal pattern, its importance in technical analysis, and compare the ES futures to the SPX cash index. I will also delve into the significance of key levels and how they are essential for identifying support and resistance.
Leading Diagonal: A Brief Overview
A leading diagonal is a specific pattern in the Elliott Wave Theory, a form of technical analysis used to predict market trends by identifying recurring wave patterns. The leading diagonal pattern is typically found in the initial wave of a new trend and is characterized by a five-wave structure, with each wave subdividing into three smaller waves. This creates a 5-3-5-3-5 pattern, indicating that the market is likely to experience a significant trend reversal.
In my analysis of the ES futures and the SPX cash index, it appears that we have observed a leading diagonal pattern, which may suggest a short-term bottom and a potential upside move in the coming weeks.
Comparing ES Futures and SPX Cash Index
When analyzing market trends, it is crucial to understand that different instruments may display different chart patterns. In our case, the ES futures and SPX cash index exhibit a disparity due to contango, a situation where the futures price is higher than the spot price. This results in the futures chart looking somewhat different when compared to the cash index. Nevertheless, it is essential to take both into consideration when making predictions about the market's direction.
The Importance of Key Levels
Key levels in technical analysis are price points that serve as significant support or resistance areas for a financial instrument. They are essential for identifying potential entry and exit points in trades and can help determine if a trend will continue or reverse.
In my analysis of the ES futures, we are currently sitting at the 3967 level, which is an important support level. If the market breaks below this level, it could drop down to the next key level around 3925 before making a corrective move up to the 4000-4010 area. Observing these levels allows you to make informed decisions on when to enter or exit positions based on market behavior.
In the current scenario, the leading diagonal pattern suggests that we may see a short-term bottom soon, followed by a corrective move up and potential further downside. Keeping an eye on key levels, such as 3967 and 3925, will help us determine potential support and resistance areas, which in turn can guide our trading decisions. Moving forward, it is important to continually monitor the market and adjust your analysis based on new information, always taking into account both the futures and cash indices to get a comprehensive understanding of market dynamics since futures trades ~23/5 and the cash indicies do not.
By staying vigilant and utilizing the principles of technical analysis, such as leading diagonal patterns and key levels, you can better navigate the ever-changing landscape of the financial markets. This approach, combined with other fundamental and technical indicators, can provide a solid foundation for making informed decisions and managing risk in an often unpredictable environment.
3/24 Daily Plan and Weekly Plan Update03/20 Weekly Plan. ES Futures June
Weekly Pivot is 3,950 .
Targets
1. 3,988
2. 4,038
3. 4,090
4. 4,140
Targets
1. 3,898
2. 3,840
3. 3,794
4. 3,696
SPX - Mastering the Market's Mood SwingsI previously discussed the likelihood of the S&P 500 Index (SPX) experiencing a rebound towards the 4000-4050 range, with particular attention given to the 4020-4040 level. The index indeed reached approximately 4039 before encountering a substantial pullback. Trading on such days can be complex, and if you're not positioned correctly and overleveraged, you may face considerable losses. Notably, the SPX nearly reached the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement level, which stands at 4043.
As we move forward, we can anticipate increased volatility with alternating bullish and bearish movements over the next two weeks. This presents lucrative opportunities for traders, which I intend to exploit. In the past, I've examined the intersection of downtrend and uptrend lines, and when these lines crossed without any release of pressure, I accurately predicted the market's continued sideways movement. This situation remains valid, with the market exhibiting wild price fluctuations.
For the short term, I project that the SPX will decline to roughly 3900 by Friday (and possibly lower into next week) before rebounding in the first week of April. Monitor April 6th closely, as it may serve as a pivotal point in the market's trajectory. If the market is in a downward trend approaching the full moon, anticipate a significant upward shift, but if it's in an upward trend, expect a substantial downward movement.
Lastly, I'd like to mention the Wave Master Indicator, a tool I developed and have been utilizing in my trading endeavors for years. On the 1-hour SPX chart, the Wave Master Indicator suggests a short-term bearish outlook. In a previous analysis, I highlighted the 4-hour chart, which indicated a potential upward move heading into the FOMC meeting. However, the longer-term indicators were pointing towards a downward trend. This is precisely what happened.
Remember that the stock market can be unpredictable, much like the weather. So here's a little joke to lighten the mood: Why did the stock market investor go broke? He tried to catch a falling knife and got cut! Stay sharp and happy trading!
#ES_F 3.22.23 Day Trading PrepFED Day!
Market might be gearing up for a big move today, on a bigger timeframe we found our top, found or low and now back to the middle of the range. Yesterday showed us that we still have buyers but most of the buyers right now are large short covering and momentum longs from Daily Support which puts us in interesting spot. Currently over 4012-3990 Daily Support inside Previous Days Range and looks like accepted in a bigger 4100-4000 range which to me says possibility that we push higher before or on the Fed BUT I also think that is a spot where we can find size sellers as well and if we will have Supply this thing is not held up by much Support IF 4012-3890 breaks and take out 3976-71 thing could get ugly to the downside with lower Daily Support to watch at 3915-3890 and if things get ugly to 3800-3790 but that only happens I think IF we do make a push towards 4084-4100 and cant hold/reverse. Currently we are in this 4046-4000 range if we can hold 4030-25 possibly move towards that 4061-46 area and then we can watching if we can continue out of it before the fed or not and if we fail to hold 4030-25 could head for our lower support.
Levels to Watch
Resistance : Key Daily 4123-4100 Key Intraday 4123-19 // 4103-4099 // 4084-77 Current 4046-42 For Continuation Higher 4061-56
Support : Key Daily 4012-3980 // 3915-3890 // 3810-3790 Key Intraday 4030-25 // 3994-90 // 3976-71 Current 4030-25 ?
Rally in $SPX Expected to Fail According to Elliott WaveS&P 500 (SPX) rally from 10.13.2022 low was in 3 swing and ended wave (2) at 4194.16 as the 1 hour chart below shows. Wave (3) lower is now in progress as a 5 waves impulse Elliott Wave structure. Down from wave (2), wave ((i)) ended at 3943.08 and rally in wave ((ii)) ended at 4078.49. The Index extended lower again in wave ((iii)) towards 3842.91 and rally in wave ((iv)) ended at 3937.27. Final leg lower wave ((v)) ended at 3838.24 which completed wave 1. Wave 2 rally is now in progress to correct cycle from 2.3.2023 high.
Internal of wave 2 is in progress as a zigzag Elliott Wave structure. Up from wave 1, wave ((a)) ended at 3964.46 and pullback in wave ((b)) ended at 3901.27. Final leg higher wave ((c)) is in progress to correct cycle from 2.3.2023 high before the decline resumes. Potential target higher is 100% – 161.8% Fibonacci extension of wave ((a)). The area comes at 4030.8 – 4110.1. From this area, sellers can appear and the Index can resume lower again. As far as pivot at 4194.16 high stays intact, expect rally to fail in 3, 7, or 11 swing for further downside.
#ES_F 3.15.23 Day Trading Prep Tuesday 3.14.23 Review : We were looking for possible lower continuation but market had other plans, as we noted IF 3892-87 holds and we can get over 3932-27 we can see a push into upper Supply area, I didnt see it pushing that much in but what we did is we took it, held over it and then rejected from next Key area which was even better. If long to supply was missed there was a nice trade from 3976-71 -57-53 back towards the value at 3932-27 which we broke into but got short covering end of day back into Resistance.
Wednesday 3.15.23 Prep : Globex opened in the 3957-44 Supply area, we pushed above sold into the stop run and dropped the bid. Once we broke 3944-40 and broke inside 3931-3892 we went straight to the bottom which is telling us not that much support there, all of our buyers are under 3870. We now have short covering here at the bottom of Daily Support, things are looking like we could at least continue towards our 3866-47 target and possibly a break below? We are under Previous Day Range but inside T2 range, IF we fail to get back inside Previous Days range and hold under 3892-87 that might give us the move lower and if we can break 3853-47 T2 low and 3839-35 would be our targets, if selling is strong we can continue lower our next Daily Support is 3809-3787 we can see buyers around there or before. IF we end up holding 3878-74 // 3866-63 we could see a move back over 3892-87 where we can target Previous Day low and then watch if we accept back in it to continue higher towards Supply but for now Supply is above us and buyers are under 3870-50-30
Levels to Watch
Resistance : Key Daily 3957-53 Key Intraday 3915-10 // 3932-27 // 3944-40 Current 3901-3898 3892-87?
Support : Key Daily 3866-3847 Next Daily 3809-3787 Key Intraday 3878-74 // 3853-47 // 3839-35 // 3809-05
#ES_F 3.13.23 Day Trading Prep Friday 3.10.23 Review : Friday played out exactly within plan except for hitting 3866-47 target but we knew that was a stretch, we found sellers at 3976-71 which was Key Intraday Resistance which gave us nice short trades towards Daily Support at 3915-3890, was a very nice ending to the week.
Monday 3.13.23 Prep : As we can see Globex started the party early, first we opened and got a big move away from Daily Support which is expected any first tests of big areas more often than now will give a good reaction, we hit 3976-71 area sold our position on the way there and introduced more supply. Currently we are under T2 Range and under quite a bit of Supply still, there is no data or events today but we are at possible Daily Support area so if we get continuation how much of it will we get? We have 3915-3890 as our Key Daily Resistance and holding under could bring continued weakness, if we do hol dunder and take out 3878-74 that opens the door for our lower Support and 3853-47 test, if that breaks we watch for continuation towards our next Daily Support at 3809-3787 but could see buying come in before that around 35-25 area unless we are going down on strong volume and will just take those areas out. For us to see stability today we need to hold this 3866-53 area and push back inside previous days range but for now signs are pointing towards the downside unless the RTH order flow tells us otherwise.
Levels to Watch
Resistance : Key Daily 3915-3890 Key Intraday 3915-10 // 3931-27 3944-40 Current 3892-87? 3901-98
Support : Next Daily 3809-3787 Key Intraday 3866-63 // 3853-47 // 3839-35 // 3809-05 Current 3878-74? 3866-63
*** Careful trading today market has been acting weird since globex, we are at an area of bigger support so we have buyers BUT we also have size coming out and possible continuation to margin calls or size getting out unless we can hold this support area.
SPX has many options to choose fromJack is back! Jack has been trading the S&P 500 for years and knows that there are always many options to choose from when it came to making a trade. He watches the market closely, paying attention to the resistance and support levels that he knew could make or break his decisions.
One day, Jack noticed that there was significant resistance near the 4050-4080 range , which is near the 61.8% golden zone rejection area. He knew that if the market couldn't break through that range, it would continue to look bearish. However, Jack also knew that if they could break through that range, there was a high degree of possibility that the market would climb to 4300 in the next few weeks.
Jack also knows that there is significant support at 3800 , and he knows that if the market dropped to that level, it would be a good opportunity to buy more stocks at a lower price to hold for a few weeks.
Jack is keeping an open mind when it comes to the wedge formation, but he knows that it is only a projection and not the primary count. He understands that projections are based on assumptions and could be unreliable, and that it is too early to make any predictions on a wedge trade. Instead, Jack is monitoring the market closely, keeping an eye on any changes in the resistance and support levels. He knows that it is important to stay informed and make informed decisions based on the current state of the market, rather than relying on projections or assumptions. While the wedge formation is an interesting development, Jack is careful not to let it cloud his judgment or influence his trading decisions until more concrete evidence is available.
#ES_F 3.10.23 Day Trading Prep Thursday 3.09.23 Review : Yday RTH gave a perfect trade, we pushed over 3995-90 on pre market data, hit the upper part of our potential Daily Resistance and Key Intraday Resistance 4012-08, pushed above it and failed giving us a nice trade down to Key Intraday Support, once we broke we got a nice move down to 2 of the lower Support targets and hit our Daily Support that we were looking for.
Friday 3.10.23 Prep : Contract rolled over, we are at Daily Support and its Friday with data coming here which tells us could be a wild day and maybe hard to trade. This week felt like a lot of work but a good trading week over all so will look to not get involved much today and maybe try to wait for that 1-2 good set ups once I see what we are working with. Very possible to see continuation under 3915 today as we cleaned out a lot of buyers from below if we have Supply to come out we could see this 3915-3890 Support break and get some continuation under it, IF we take out Prev Day Low we have 3901-3890 as an area to watch for hold or continuation from that we watch 3878-74 and 3866-53 areas for continuation IF things get crazy next Daily Support is 3809-3787. If we do run out of Supply today and more sellers dont come in we could see a push back towards T2 low and see if we can push back inside to accept but if not then we might need to go look for the bid again.
Levels to Watch
Resistance : Daily 4012-3990 Key Intraday 3976-71 // 3957-53 Key For Continuation Higher 3995-90
Support : Daily 3915-3890 Next Daily 3809-3790 Key Intraday 3937-27 // 3914-10 Current 3944-40
***** This Prep is done on new contract price
SPY Setting up for a bounce soonOnce there was a guy who talked about an outcome that nobody believed in. He was laughed at and ridiculed for his ideas. He tried to explain his point of view, but people dismissed him and thought he was foolish. However, he remained persistent in his beliefs and continued to speak about his theory. Then one day, something happened that proved him right, and suddenly, nobody was laughing anymore. They realized that they had been wrong and that the guy had been right all along. The guy's persistence and belief in his ideas had paid off, and he was now recognized for his unique and innovative thinking.
Oh wait. That guy is me.
We're likely going to bounce soon, though. Look at the fib measurements I'm providing in this chart. We tapped the 100% extension perfectly. This does look wave 3-ish so be cautiously optimistic. I discussed 3900 in a recent video as well. Well, here we are. Almost 150 points lower from my previous idea that I shared here that was laughed at.
But seriously - look at that perfect bounce off the 100. Probably just a bounce, but a bounce will come overnight, then tomorrow when NFP is released... we'll see if this is a wave 3 or not.
#ES_F 3.09.23 Day Trading Prep Wednesday 3.08.23 Review : Consolidated under previous Daily Support with a few attempts to break 3976-71 Key Intraday Support but we held within this 4015-3975 balance. Best trade was when we hit double top in E 11:30 Period, gave a nice trade down to Intraday Support, was thinking we fill finally have more supply to break and continue but so far that has not been the case which tells us its controlled mark down selling with stops at good support areas.
Thursday 3.09.23 Prep : Will see continuation lower today or do we have enough to again hold and maybe even push higher? We have been holding under Previous Daily Support of 4012-3990 for two days now with Supply trapped above. We are looking like we could see more selling today as we are at the T2 and Previous Day Lows, under Previous Daily Support, have Supply above and have this nice sideways action to built up, 3976-71 is again our Key Intraday Support to watch as that is the area we need to take out and accept under to see a move towards next potential Support to see what we do there. If we do hold Intraday Support or bounce from 3957-53 area and get back over 3976-71 then we could see more balancing action in this 4025-3976 range, 3995-90 is our Current Resistance and 4012-08 will be our Key Resistance today.
Levels to Watch
Resistance : Daily 4012-3990 Key Intraday 4012-08 // 4030-25 Current 3995-90
Support : Daily 3915-3890 Key Intraday 3976-71 // 3957-53
#ES_F 3.08.23 Day Trading Prep Tuesday 3.07.23 Review : Tuesday Globex went sideways all night building up supply under resistance until it finally broke before RTH giving us a break under 4030-25 and acceptance into 4025-3976 range and a move into Potential Daily Support for the Day. We did hold 3994-90 level yesterday but we did a full break of this Daily 4012-3890 area which told us buyers here are not that strong and we now have more Supply above us from this move up.
Wednesday 3.08.23 Prep : Globex again went sideways all night in a tighter range and it also went sideways building up Supply around the lower apart of our Potential Daily Support from yesterday making it our potential Resistance going forward? Depending what we do today but this could have been a retest and fail of Previous Daily Support 4012-3890 and we know short covering front ran our Daily target of 3915-3890 last week, will we get continuation towards it today? Will we hold around this Daily balance or will Powell and 10am Data come in and bring in some buyers? So far things are pointing to continuation lower, we are Under T2 range we are right at Previous Days Low which will be area to watch with 3976-71. If we can get under Previous Days range and accept under 3976-71 we can see a move towards our next Daily Support at 3915-3890. If we do manage to hold we could stay in this 3970-4025 range trading inside it unless 10am data comes and brings in buyers to get us back over 4012-08 and 4030-25 so far we do have plenty of Supply above it seems.
Levels to Watch
Resistance : Key Daily 4012-3890 Key Intraday 4012-08 // 4030-25 Key For Continuation Higher 4046-42
Support : Next Daily 3915-3890 Key Intraday 3976-71 Key For Continuation Lower 3957-53
*** We Have Data at 815 and 10am Need to be cautious around those times as moves could be violent and it could go either way fast or wont pick direction until after
Stock Market Pivot IncomingThe market sways and shifts its course,
Pivoting with great force,
A dance of bulls and bears,
With twists and turns that no one dares.
Investors and traders are closely watching SPY SPX QQQ and NDX as they approach an important supply level, anticipating a potential pivot to the downside. This key level is viewed as a point of resistance where selling pressure may increase and buyers may become less willing to continue buying at higher prices.
If the market fails to break through this fibonacci level and instead begins to retreat, it could signal a shift in sentiment and a potential reversal in trend. As a result, many market participants are preparing for a potential downside move by adjusting their portfolios and risk management strategies, while also keeping a close eye on other key indicators and technical levels to confirm any potential shifts in market direction.
I plan to watch for a reversal incoming at the coveted 61.8% fibonacci level as the primary area of supply and watching for a move down to 3900. That's a significant move from here if I'm being honest with you. Watch key indicators and note that the 4h wave master has significant hidden bearish divergence forming. The green wave is the highest it has been since January 9th. The momentum indicator is also red as well. Be careful friends.
#ES_F 3.07.23 Day Trading Prep Monday 3.06.23 Review : Globex pushed us into the resistance area at 4061-56, RTH Opened on Gap up and buyers came in for continuation, we hit our upper early in the day and then consolidated below it. 4084-77 was our key area for continuation higher and we failed to take it out and showed weakness at it instead, until we built up enough Supply which gave us a nice short trade towards Previous Days range.
Tuesday 3.07.23 Prep : Are we getting any move out today or staying in balance? We have Powell doing something at 10 and we are at an important location, we have few weeks of Supply above us over 4084 - 4100 and we possibly trapped enough shorts under 4030 - 4015 to give us Support. These are the areas to watch for a move out of this current 4077-4030 range. We have been going sideways in smaller range all night around this 4061-56 Resistance area and we have to see what we do from here. We are right in the middle of the range inside yesterdays value which tells us it could be choppy and also the range has been tight so far which is not ideal for trading until that changes. 4084-77 is still our Key Resistance for continuation higher and any break down would need to break and accept under 4030-25 for continuation, until then can stay in balance.
Levels to Watch
Resistance : Key Daily 4103-4084 Key Intraday 4084-77 // 4103-4099 Current 4061-56
Support : Key Daily 4012-3990 Key Intraday 4030-25 // 4012-08 Current 4046-42
