S&P 500 Futures Swing Short TradeThe Biggest Bull Trap I have Ever Seen
Fed will crash the market on FOMC and NFP this week
buckle up
Es_f
#ES_F Tuesday 1.31.23 Prep Review: Sunday Globex opened right at key level of 4084-7, attempted to get back over but failed trapping the buyers and yesterdays end of day supply above. We sold got the move lower which broke 4061-56 and found buyers at lower support area of 4046-42 pre market. At RTH Open we corrected short inventory back to our Resistance area of 4084-77 where more sellers stepped in. Selling back down and holding under 4061-56 was showing us that this is now our resistance making possible target at 4046-42 which was already tested multiple times and T2 low below it at our 4031-25 Support. We did get our move lower but it happened towards the end of the day which makes us think there are still buyers below and we didn't have enough supply to break it just yet. Good trades today from resistance down, stayed with the trend.
Overview: We are currently in distribution mode and our range is 4077-4030, we got up against big resistance last week and trapped some more supply over 4084 which we saw today coming out under 4061. We had enough short covering today to keep us up over resistance and not test T2 Low which was at key support until end of day... does that tell us that the buying is so strong and keeping us up or are we just taking our time dropping the bid lower to not scare off willing buyers? Tonight our nearest Resistance is at 4046-42 and Support is at 4030-25 since we are in distribution mode we are not sure when they will be done and ready to move out of this range. We are currently below T2 range but inside Previous Day range, as long as we are holding under 4061-56 that is a sign of continued weakness from above but must see a break of 4030-25 for first sign of lower continuation and then get under 4012-08. For signs of reversals to the upside we must hold 4030-25 and start taking out higher resistance areas and especially holding over 4061-56. Can we stay in distribution range until data starts hitting this week to bring more volume or will we make a move outside the range again?
Levels to Watch:
Daily Resistance: 4123-4084 Intraday Resistance: 4084-77 // 4061-56 // 4046-42
Daily Support: 4012-3988 Intraday Support: 4030-25 // 4012-08 // 3994-89 If Broken then 3957-53 // 3944-40
#ES_F Monday 1.30.23 PrepThis week we find ourselves opening right against bigger resistance area of 4120-4080, its a big market moving data week which will bring in volume. Lots of traders are looking for this to either reverse hard or keep going to 4150-4200-4300 those two are great options and another is to use this to maybe shake things up on both sides. It feels like there is still more covering to do and at the same time we are at an area of bigger supply which warns us of uncertainty. We have been making some big moves and maybe we found a location to range a little bit? Do some cleaning and get ready for next step? We will have to see what action we get this week but if that turns out the case then will be looking at 4120-4000 as our bigger range for now until we fully break through either side.
Areas to watch tonight are 4084-77 // 4061-56, If we completed our business over 84 for now and trapped that supply then we will want to buy it back cheaper. If we cant get back over 84-77 that might give us a test of Fridays low and that 4061-56 level to see if we can shake things up and from there will have to watch it level to level with our potential support being at 4046-42 and lower with T2 Low being right at 4030-25 Support. Thinking that if we stay in this bigger range then we might get some good two way trading this week because of this indecision with buyers under 4000 and sellers over 4100 but also a chance to see quick reversals.
We are currently accepted in 4077-4030 area and Friday move was a stop run but we have to watch if we build structure around it then get back over it.
Levels to Watch:
Daily Resistance 4120-4084 Intraday 4143-37 // 4123-19 // 4103-4100 // 4084-77
Daily Support 4012-3990 Intraday 4061-56 // 4046-42 // 4030-25 // 4012-08
01/29 Weekly Plan. ES Futures March01/29 Weekly Plan. ES Futures March
Weekly Pivot is 4,035
Targets
1. 4,074
2. 4,110
3. 4,141 .
Targets
1. 4,001
2. 3,955
3. 3,906 .
*Now trading at 4,084 near Weekly wT1
You will receive alerts in this channel every time ES hits (2M candle close):
1. Weekly opening
2. Weekly pivot at 4,035
3. Each weekly target.
*Side notes: ***
1. OTFU in daily timeframe.
2. OTFU in weekly timeframe
3. Balance in monthly timeframe. 4 months zone. H4141 HB3,821, L3,502.
4. When trading off weekly levels, each level will act as support and resistance, “no trade zones” do not apply to weekly plan.
Have a great week and trade safe
ES_F Week Recap. Is there more upside? Review: This weeks agenda was short covering, market got too short under 3930 and we used the covering do drive us higher to our bigger supply areas where we can find more selling. We have successfully arrived at our next bigger time frame supply level. Wasn't an easy week to trade as they didn't make this move up as fun for everyone but levels held nicely and targets were reached. Last few data releases were different than what we are used to and trades take longer to set up so extra patience is required. End of day today we used the short stops that we built second half of the day to unload our inventory and run it up over 4103 where we found more sellers from where we dropped the bid end of day. The way we closed at first seemed bad for the longs in a way that we have trapped inventory over 4084 and that was that, after review it makes me think that possibly we just found supply and dropped our bid to cover lower but I think there is still some more covering to do up here. Doesn't seem like we are ready to reverse just yet..
Overview: Coming week has lots of data so it wont be an easy one, best to take it day by day and let the market show us what we are doing. Sunday Globex will have to show us the next set up... our potential support is under 4084-77, our position end of day was in that area as well. Monday is no news/data day which means less volume and after todays end of day drop we might have less bullish traders in globex so they can buy it back cheaper and try to make another run at it, depends where we open but we should be over T2 range which tells us more shorts are trapped under for potential support and if we run out of supply in 4100-4084 area then we will need to get more over Fridays high which if broken will create more buying to possibly get us to test next supply area. Our support is under 4084-77, red flag if we break and start holding under 4061-56, ideally we consolidate under or above support then start pushing away from 4084 again during RTH BUT since its a big supply area they might try to consolidate then get over 4100 during Globex since there is less volume and use that as support later in the day, if that happens we might will have to watch potential support under 4100 and resistance areas stay the same. Have to be careful up here because size is doing business here and they don't care what anyone thinks as they will get their fill or do what they need to do. We are towards an edge where things like reversals happen but that takes time to play out or can be very quick.
If we did happen to finish this move higher and longs are trapped, we have to start seeing price break and hold below our lower support areas and moving away from this supply, until then they might keep moving it higher.
Levels to Watch: Resistance: 4168-4162 //4143-37 // 4123-19 // 4100 Support: 4084-77 // 4061-56 // 4030-25 // 4012-08 // 3957-53
#ES_F Friday 1.27.23 Overview Review of 1.26.23: Last night Globex opened and found support on our TPOC location from Monday-Tuesday right above our 4030-25 level. We used the volume from morning data to run the stops over 4046 and get us up against our resistance before RTH Open. RTH opened with the stop run over ON High into Supply area where we found our sellers which took us down and broke morning support but inability to break 4030-25 gave us clues that we have buyers below and we can see that below us on the left that we might have trapped some shorts on yesterdays move back out. We took in all of the supply above and made another run, I assume they might have waited until the end of the day to run it because we had so much supply above, even the push over it was slow and grindy which doesn't mean its weak but to me says lots of sellers and the buyers are just the unwilling shorts getting bought in. Besides the slow and grindy action levels held very nice and targets were hit, in the morning started thinking they might have the juice to get over 84 but with them having to first flush out supply was not enough gas but we hit 77.25 almost to the tick.
Overview for 1.27.23: We will have to see how Globex will set up before PCE Tomorrow but we are now in area of supply, our bigger time frame level above is 4084-4123 which is our pocket of resistance and supply. Since we are up here and covering they might need more liquidity to get covered and with tomorrows data they might try to use that to make a run at it. Depending on how they will play it out I think we can have a very tricky day because we are currently over T2 high, over Monday high but we are within range and willing buyers might be running out, do we flush everyone lower, trap shorts and use that to head over 4084 into supply, do we build a base here get over it and head for that then flush it back down? lots of questions for tomorrow and might be a difficult day. We have our potential support under 4061-56 and 4046-42 levels if we make a run for higher supply area and fail there and start taking out those supports the flush can can be big to the downside. Letting things open and show the way might be a smart thing to do tomorrow;
Levels to Watch: Resistance : 4143-37 // 4123-4119 // 4103-4099 // 4084-77 Potential Support 4046-42 // 4030-25 // 4013-08 // 3994-89
Area to watch is 4061-56 and 4084-77 Tonight and RTH Tomorrow
IF we do happen to get a big move down, better support areas below are 3957-53 // 3944-40 Which is our T2 Low area
#ES_F Thursday 1.26.23 Overview Review: Last night Globex opened and drove under 4030-25 trapping supply over which started our move overnight move. Yesterday we had signs that inventory is still low and someone is buying, Globex was used to drop the bid under Previous day low which helped get us under 94-89 and our T2 Low Support which made more people sell out into the buying under 3976-71. Once selling has stopped the inventory was short and our supply was back over 4030-25, today showed us that there is still size covering and wanting that supply. 4076-71 was look below and fail, once we got back over T2 Low and 3994-89 position was below us.
Overview: Interested to see what we will do in Globex tonight, we still have supply that is coming out from above this 4042 area and now our buyers are under 4025 and under 4012-08. If we break under 4030-25 there might be a chance to visit 4012-08 or close to it, if we wont see a full test or break under it that will show strength going into RTH but it might be a tricky day as we might be trying to get as many sellers shaken out before making another run at bigger Supply area. as long as we are holding over 4000-4012 area there is a good chance to make another attempt higher to 4046-42 // 4061-56 which would be our T2 High and maybe get close to 4084-77. Ideally we don't go there tonight first but instead come down lower and consolidate. If we do get over 4061 at whatever point that is not the best area to add because that is an area of bigger supply and things can come to an end quick. Area to be careful at.
If we do break under 4012-08 - 4000 those will be first red flags and break and hold under 95-89 would be a big warning might change things to the downside pretty quick.
Levels to Watch: 3994-89 // 4012-08 // 4035-25 // 4046-42 // 4061-56 // 408477
#ES_F Wednesday 01.25.23 Overview Review: Didn't have enough gas today to get to our supply area, Globex spent most of the night between 4042-430 building up supply, break of that trapped supply from yesterday and overnight above it, that was our first red flag to be cautious today as if we were to continue strong we would have held that area in Globex. Area mentioned for possible support was 4012-08 which we could see pre market that we were holding above, when opened we did failure to break the first sign that level is holding then look below and come back in was the main trade for the day which got us back to overnight supply where we found more sellers and went sideways again over VWAP selling over 4030. Great day, support provided great trades, second half of the day was the hardest today.
Overview: We had an interesting open today, we closed RTH with a stop run over 4046-42 and over 5 hours of selling over Vwap. Opened and drove under that consolidation area trapping the longs making it our supply area going forward. This can be a good chance to see if we have enough supply to break todays low and get more people to sell some, under Previous Low we have our next Potential Support at 3995-89 with has T2 low and position below it, if we have enough selling we can see that area tested but overall we are inside T2 range, judging from todays action we still have shorts trying to cover so I wont be surprised if we still do a test of Monday high and area above it. We have to see what Globex does, for the upside to happen we will have to look strong below 4012-08 and 3094 if we get under them and get back over 4030-25 for final confirmation.
If we get below 3994-89 and hold under it that changes things, until then we can still get good amount of short covering and a run into a supply zone, longer we hold over this area and over the trendline more customers we can have.
Levels to Watch: 3995-89 // 4012-08 // 4030-25 // 4046-42 // 4061-56 Not looking to hold too much above last night unless showing good strength because its bigger supply area.
If selling is strong but not strong enough to get under T2 Low and not enough buying to get over and hold 4030 Then potential for inside day between 4030-4000
#ES_F Overview for 1.24.23 Review: Short covering continued today, during Globex we held above 3976-71 Support, consolidated under VWAP before then open and once we took the open out off we went, we flushed most of the supply out of this area last Wednesday so this move over 4030 was much easier without much consolidation needed on the way up. We saw our first decent correction and need to consolidate to go higher at 4046-42 which was first resistance target. We were able to take it out and hit next level at 4061-56 where we found more supply which gave a nice correction to VWAP, the higher it gets the more supply there will be so have to be careful at these areas as we might have found our range for distribution.
Overview: We have possibly found our distribution range between 4077-4030, have to see how we hold Globex but there is a good possibility to see a test of today's high at some point, will it hold or not is for us to find out. Ideally we hold 4030-25 support but very likely we could see some sort of flush under it before, as long as we hold over 4012-08 the upside has a chance of playing out. If we take a dip under 4030-25 and can consolidate under without breaking it will be a good information, unless we make some move over it tonight.
Levels to Watch: 4012-08 // 4030-25 // 4046-42 // 4061-56 // 84-77
#ES_F Overview for Monday 1.23.23 Review: Last week Thursday we got back to our possible support area under 3930 and we could see the short covering stabilize the price before RTH at 3915-10 area which was important going forward, during RTH we failed to continue lower and only did a look below Globex low and came back in without reaching next level and taking out the low from 1.10 signaling that sellers are running out. Friday Globex we consolidated more getting all the supply secured, RTH open gave us a flush under VWAP to get the last sellers out and once we got over 30 again shorts were trapped and we began mark up back to our Supply area which is over 3990.
Overview: That flush Wednesday took out a lot sellers from this area so now we might be able to get through it easier and head for our next Resistance area. As we know the goal is to sell product higher to willing buyers and we need to create some demand, ideally we can hold over this 76-71 area or at least over 60 as we now have support below those areas and see a move higher to take out last weeks high which will bring in more demand to the store. I will be looking to see if we get any pull back tonight towards 76-71 area and if it holds or not, the way we high closed Friday we might not get much of a pull back and instead take out 94-89 area first and head for 4000 pocket, if that happens then any pull back to and under 94-89 could be a good opportunity to buy and eventually if we hold over this area and get through that 4000 pocket we can see a push higher into next resistance area to 4046-61 maybe little over it depending how much buying we get.
Levels to Watch: 3976-71 // 3995-89 // 4012-08 // 4030-25 // 4046-42 // 4061-56
For better confirmation we can wait until 4012-08 gets taken/hold either in Globex or RTH tomorrow, if in Globex then we might see a re-test in RTH but either way if we get over this area we could see our move to 4030-25 // 4046-42 and if that is that 61-56. Trading it level to level is a safer bet since we would be in supply area and never know what can happen but ideally everything holds up nicely and we get the full move.
IF we don't hold 76-71 first red flag, breaking under 60 big red flag and will need to wait because if that happens then trip lower could happen but being up here I would think that they will try to run the highs to bring in more buyers to sell product into.
SPY New High - likely headed higher.Are you following my research yet?
Check out my SPY Cycle Patterns and decide for yourself if my predictions are accurate:
SPY Cycle Patterns for this week:
1/15/2023 GAP Potential
1/16/2023 GAP-Reversal
1/17/2023 Breakdown201
1/18/2023 POP
1/19/2023
1/20/2023 BaseRally301
1/21/2023 Break-Away
1/22/2023 Rally-111
1/23/2023 Carryover
1/24/2023 Inside-Breakaway
1/25/2023 Harami-Inside
1/26/2023 CRUSH
1/27/2023 Rev-Rally
Now, using traditional Fibonacci price modeling, we can see the recent support level held and a New High was reached.
This indicates the SPY will likely attempt a bit of consolidation/rotation over the next 4+ days, but will likely rally even higher in early Feb.
Follow my research. It's simple and easy to follow.
ES levels going into MondayFailure to breach 4036 daily supply will most likely result in one more leg down
breach and hold of 4036 we look for 4070-4085 for our next area of sellside liquidity
Daily Bias for the week of 1/17/23 - 1/20/23This week preparing my daily bias has been a bit tougher than last week. Fundamentally I am bearish! There are too many signals in our economy that we have a deeper bear market in store for us, possibly deeper than we saw in 2022. However, putting that aside and putting to practice solely what I see on the chart, which is what this weekly exercise is for, this chart represents my bias for the upcoming week.
There are 4 points to the trend line which represent the general direction I anticipate price travels during the upcoming week. We may go higher and then pivot lower, however, the general direction for the week is what I am expecting more so than getting it correct each day.
Let's see how this week plays out! I am quite pleased with the results from my previous daily bias, however, this exercise is not about being right or wrong and ego is out of the equation. This is simply taking what I have become quite good at on lower time frames and implementing it on higher time frames.
Happy trading folks!
1/17 Daily Plan - ES Futures 4,002 is today's pivot. 1/17 Daily Plan - ES Futures 4,002 is today's pivot.
Please add " " to ensure this message is reaching people. Now 4,007 @everyone
Secondary pivot will be the Yellow Line and Opening Price Zone which will be market generated information. Secondary pivot will come into play today. Today's plan was designed to look for reversals at zone 1, 2 and 3.
ES is now OTFU in daily. We are OTFU in weekly since we traded above the 3 weeks balance zone.
Targets
1. 4,017
2. 4,026
3. 4,042
Targets
1. 3,990
2. 3,973
3. 3,961
01/16 Weekly Plan. ES Futures March01/16 Weekly Plan. ES Futures March
Weekly Pivot is 3,990
Targets
1. 4,021
2. 4,070
3. 4,110 .
Targets
1. 3,929
2. 3,890
3. 3,860 .
Now trading at 4,016 near Weekly TP1 - Upside
You will receive alerts in this channel every time ES hits (2M candle close):
1. Weekly opening 4,020
2. Weekly pivot at 3,990
3. Each weekly target.
Side notes:
1. Weekly chart is currently OTFU ends if we break below 3,897 in RTH. Old balance is H3929.75, HB3858, L3788.
2. One time framing up in daily chart ends if 3,865.75 breaks during RTH.
3. When trading of weekly levels, each level will act as support and resistance, “no trade zones” do not apply to weekly plan.
4. We have an open gap zone from 1/10. H3,948, L3,942
Have a great week and trade safe. @everyone
SPX Primed For A Powerful Wave 3 Decline - UpdateWith an impulse up formed at close from yesterday's 3877 low, the 3970 high marks the completion of W2 to set up for the bearish W3 breakdown out of this consolidation period.
W3 should begin by retracing the majority of the recent rally targeting 3843-3808, for w1 of W3.
Ultimately, there is a high probability target range for the W3 decline, which includes the 78.6% retracement from the October 13 low and 90-100% extensions of W1. Those are 3667-3635-3622.
A fourth wave rally will follow after W3 is complete to be followed by a fifth to complete (W1).
ES quick updateI will leave an SPX update for the other site. But here is a sneak-peak of what I expect going into the CPI release on Thursday and next week
Enjoy, and don't get trapped in case we really spike up on CPI numbers on Thursday and crap from there.
And don't blame anyone if you are short and get stopped on CPI release or try to chase the market and go long on Thursday am; you have been warned here.
$SPY $SPX $ES1! Analysis, Key levels, and Targets $SPY $SPX $ES1! Analysis, Key levels, and Targets
What a FUN DAY, y’all… if you still don’t follow my intraday ideas there is a link in my bio…. I have a ton of trades on and I put a lot (not all but a lot) of them on there in real time... I go through my thinking process too and also am available most of the time for questions during trading hours... Though I also just learned that TradingView started the livestream thing and that’s something I’m thinking about looking into if I can get it into my workflow…
Today we closed flat like a pancake just above the 200MA on the 4hr. after a super low volume rally. And below the 200MA on the 1 hr… and under the 50MA on the 4hr…
There were two gaps -a bear gap opened Dec. 16th, and a bull gap opened up this morning - and both of those filled and we closed below them, which makes me believe that the 389-90 level will be resistance… unless we get some really great news from JPow tomorrow morning at 9am…. Usually he speaks around 2ish, but tomorrow he’s speaking from Sweden so it’s pre-market….
Did anyone else notice today, on the 5 year inflation expectations report was 2.4… IN 5 YEARS…. Does that mean that interest rates can be expected to be elevated for the next 5 years, since that is the goal? Not to mention that the report came in hot.
Vix also created a gap today at open and it did not fill, which turns it into a potential support…
Happy Trading tomorrow…. I hope you’re having a great start to the year… 💃🏻
SPX Primed For A Powerful Wave 3 Decline - UpdateSPX extended the double zigzag correction originating from the December 22 low terminating at today's 3950 high.
That 3950 high marks the completion of W2 to set up for the bearish W3 breakdown out of this consolidation period.
Below 3875 will confirm the W2 termination point, which should lead to retracing the majority of the recent rally targeting 3835-3805, for w1 of W3.
Ultimately, there is a high probability target range for the W3 decline, which includes the 78.6% retracement from the October 13 low and 90-100% extensions of W1. Those are 3648-3622-3615.
A fourth wave rally will follow after W3 is complete to be followed by a fifth to complete (W1).
01/08 Weekly Plan. ES Futures March01/08 Weekly Plan. ES Futures March
Weekly Pivot is 3,875
Targets
1. 3,929
2. 3,985
3. 4,026
Targets
1. 3,840
2. 3,792
3. 3,758 .
Now trading at 3,924 near Weekly TP1 - Upside
You will receive alerts in this channel every time ES hits (2M candle close):
1. Weekly opening 3,918.5
2. Weekly pivot at 3,875
3. Each weekly target.
Side notes:
1. Weekly chart is currently balancing H3929.75, HB3858, L3788.
2. One time framing up in daily chart ends if 3,829 breaks during RTH.
3. When trading of weekly levels, each level will act as support and resistance, “no trade zones” do not apply to weekly plan.
Have a great week and trade safe. @everyone
SP500 headed higherSP500 appears to be headed higher. The most widely used indicators MACD, RSI and 5/20 EMA are showing bullish. Most important is the RSI, a bullish signal formed when the RSI stayed within a tight range below the 50 than retraced above the 50 level.
Same time the MACD signal went positive
Breakout of range
Above anchored VWAP from the low
RSI above 50
Anyone's guess how much higher it can go, but with current analysis, I see the previous highly range being tested.
Complex H&S or Inflationary candles?Back from a long pause,
These are called multiple, or complex, head and shoulder formations but my levels say the final word, let me ask you:
Acceleration of inflation or are we going to see a change in the mood?
What would set the tone for the next phase of market movement?
Why more inflation and not deflation?
Can you answer these questions?
ES needs to get above 3881.50 to continue goingI can say that the lows are in for now, but the only issue is the timing, its not going to bottom till the 22nd.
So to me it seems its going to test lows 3750ES zone by the 22nd and then go up into early high next week on the 26-27th.
Thursday should mark the bottom and then go up on Fri hard on the data is my thinking. That high should be limited to 3950-60SPX imo
