#ES_F Overview for Monday 1.23.23 Review: Last week Thursday we got back to our possible support area under 3930 and we could see the short covering stabilize the price before RTH at 3915-10 area which was important going forward, during RTH we failed to continue lower and only did a look below Globex low and came back in without reaching next level and taking out the low from 1.10 signaling that sellers are running out. Friday Globex we consolidated more getting all the supply secured, RTH open gave us a flush under VWAP to get the last sellers out and once we got over 30 again shorts were trapped and we began mark up back to our Supply area which is over 3990.
Overview: That flush Wednesday took out a lot sellers from this area so now we might be able to get through it easier and head for our next Resistance area. As we know the goal is to sell product higher to willing buyers and we need to create some demand, ideally we can hold over this 76-71 area or at least over 60 as we now have support below those areas and see a move higher to take out last weeks high which will bring in more demand to the store. I will be looking to see if we get any pull back tonight towards 76-71 area and if it holds or not, the way we high closed Friday we might not get much of a pull back and instead take out 94-89 area first and head for 4000 pocket, if that happens then any pull back to and under 94-89 could be a good opportunity to buy and eventually if we hold over this area and get through that 4000 pocket we can see a push higher into next resistance area to 4046-61 maybe little over it depending how much buying we get.
Levels to Watch: 3976-71 // 3995-89 // 4012-08 // 4030-25 // 4046-42 // 4061-56
For better confirmation we can wait until 4012-08 gets taken/hold either in Globex or RTH tomorrow, if in Globex then we might see a re-test in RTH but either way if we get over this area we could see our move to 4030-25 // 4046-42 and if that is that 61-56. Trading it level to level is a safer bet since we would be in supply area and never know what can happen but ideally everything holds up nicely and we get the full move.
IF we don't hold 76-71 first red flag, breaking under 60 big red flag and will need to wait because if that happens then trip lower could happen but being up here I would think that they will try to run the highs to bring in more buyers to sell product into.
Es_f
SPY New High - likely headed higher.Are you following my research yet?
Check out my SPY Cycle Patterns and decide for yourself if my predictions are accurate:
SPY Cycle Patterns for this week:
1/15/2023 GAP Potential
1/16/2023 GAP-Reversal
1/17/2023 Breakdown201
1/18/2023 POP
1/19/2023
1/20/2023 BaseRally301
1/21/2023 Break-Away
1/22/2023 Rally-111
1/23/2023 Carryover
1/24/2023 Inside-Breakaway
1/25/2023 Harami-Inside
1/26/2023 CRUSH
1/27/2023 Rev-Rally
Now, using traditional Fibonacci price modeling, we can see the recent support level held and a New High was reached.
This indicates the SPY will likely attempt a bit of consolidation/rotation over the next 4+ days, but will likely rally even higher in early Feb.
Follow my research. It's simple and easy to follow.
Daily Bias for the week of 1/17/23 - 1/20/23This week preparing my daily bias has been a bit tougher than last week. Fundamentally I am bearish! There are too many signals in our economy that we have a deeper bear market in store for us, possibly deeper than we saw in 2022. However, putting that aside and putting to practice solely what I see on the chart, which is what this weekly exercise is for, this chart represents my bias for the upcoming week.
There are 4 points to the trend line which represent the general direction I anticipate price travels during the upcoming week. We may go higher and then pivot lower, however, the general direction for the week is what I am expecting more so than getting it correct each day.
Let's see how this week plays out! I am quite pleased with the results from my previous daily bias, however, this exercise is not about being right or wrong and ego is out of the equation. This is simply taking what I have become quite good at on lower time frames and implementing it on higher time frames.
Happy trading folks!
1/17 Daily Plan - ES Futures 4,002 is today's pivot. 1/17 Daily Plan - ES Futures 4,002 is today's pivot.
Please add " " to ensure this message is reaching people. Now 4,007 @everyone
Secondary pivot will be the Yellow Line and Opening Price Zone which will be market generated information. Secondary pivot will come into play today. Today's plan was designed to look for reversals at zone 1, 2 and 3.
ES is now OTFU in daily. We are OTFU in weekly since we traded above the 3 weeks balance zone.
Targets
1. 4,017
2. 4,026
3. 4,042
Targets
1. 3,990
2. 3,973
3. 3,961
01/16 Weekly Plan. ES Futures March01/16 Weekly Plan. ES Futures March
Weekly Pivot is 3,990
Targets
1. 4,021
2. 4,070
3. 4,110 .
Targets
1. 3,929
2. 3,890
3. 3,860 .
Now trading at 4,016 near Weekly TP1 - Upside
You will receive alerts in this channel every time ES hits (2M candle close):
1. Weekly opening 4,020
2. Weekly pivot at 3,990
3. Each weekly target.
Side notes:
1. Weekly chart is currently OTFU ends if we break below 3,897 in RTH. Old balance is H3929.75, HB3858, L3788.
2. One time framing up in daily chart ends if 3,865.75 breaks during RTH.
3. When trading of weekly levels, each level will act as support and resistance, “no trade zones” do not apply to weekly plan.
4. We have an open gap zone from 1/10. H3,948, L3,942
Have a great week and trade safe. @everyone
SPX Primed For A Powerful Wave 3 Decline - UpdateWith an impulse up formed at close from yesterday's 3877 low, the 3970 high marks the completion of W2 to set up for the bearish W3 breakdown out of this consolidation period.
W3 should begin by retracing the majority of the recent rally targeting 3843-3808, for w1 of W3.
Ultimately, there is a high probability target range for the W3 decline, which includes the 78.6% retracement from the October 13 low and 90-100% extensions of W1. Those are 3667-3635-3622.
A fourth wave rally will follow after W3 is complete to be followed by a fifth to complete (W1).
ES quick updateI will leave an SPX update for the other site. But here is a sneak-peak of what I expect going into the CPI release on Thursday and next week
Enjoy, and don't get trapped in case we really spike up on CPI numbers on Thursday and crap from there.
And don't blame anyone if you are short and get stopped on CPI release or try to chase the market and go long on Thursday am; you have been warned here.
$SPY $SPX $ES1! Analysis, Key levels, and Targets $SPY $SPX $ES1! Analysis, Key levels, and Targets
What a FUN DAY, y’all… if you still don’t follow my intraday ideas there is a link in my bio…. I have a ton of trades on and I put a lot (not all but a lot) of them on there in real time... I go through my thinking process too and also am available most of the time for questions during trading hours... Though I also just learned that TradingView started the livestream thing and that’s something I’m thinking about looking into if I can get it into my workflow…
Today we closed flat like a pancake just above the 200MA on the 4hr. after a super low volume rally. And below the 200MA on the 1 hr… and under the 50MA on the 4hr…
There were two gaps -a bear gap opened Dec. 16th, and a bull gap opened up this morning - and both of those filled and we closed below them, which makes me believe that the 389-90 level will be resistance… unless we get some really great news from JPow tomorrow morning at 9am…. Usually he speaks around 2ish, but tomorrow he’s speaking from Sweden so it’s pre-market….
Did anyone else notice today, on the 5 year inflation expectations report was 2.4… IN 5 YEARS…. Does that mean that interest rates can be expected to be elevated for the next 5 years, since that is the goal? Not to mention that the report came in hot.
Vix also created a gap today at open and it did not fill, which turns it into a potential support…
Happy Trading tomorrow…. I hope you’re having a great start to the year… 💃🏻
SPX Primed For A Powerful Wave 3 Decline - UpdateSPX extended the double zigzag correction originating from the December 22 low terminating at today's 3950 high.
That 3950 high marks the completion of W2 to set up for the bearish W3 breakdown out of this consolidation period.
Below 3875 will confirm the W2 termination point, which should lead to retracing the majority of the recent rally targeting 3835-3805, for w1 of W3.
Ultimately, there is a high probability target range for the W3 decline, which includes the 78.6% retracement from the October 13 low and 90-100% extensions of W1. Those are 3648-3622-3615.
A fourth wave rally will follow after W3 is complete to be followed by a fifth to complete (W1).
01/08 Weekly Plan. ES Futures March01/08 Weekly Plan. ES Futures March
Weekly Pivot is 3,875
Targets
1. 3,929
2. 3,985
3. 4,026
Targets
1. 3,840
2. 3,792
3. 3,758 .
Now trading at 3,924 near Weekly TP1 - Upside
You will receive alerts in this channel every time ES hits (2M candle close):
1. Weekly opening 3,918.5
2. Weekly pivot at 3,875
3. Each weekly target.
Side notes:
1. Weekly chart is currently balancing H3929.75, HB3858, L3788.
2. One time framing up in daily chart ends if 3,829 breaks during RTH.
3. When trading of weekly levels, each level will act as support and resistance, “no trade zones” do not apply to weekly plan.
Have a great week and trade safe. @everyone
SP500 headed higherSP500 appears to be headed higher. The most widely used indicators MACD, RSI and 5/20 EMA are showing bullish. Most important is the RSI, a bullish signal formed when the RSI stayed within a tight range below the 50 than retraced above the 50 level.
Same time the MACD signal went positive
Breakout of range
Above anchored VWAP from the low
RSI above 50
Anyone's guess how much higher it can go, but with current analysis, I see the previous highly range being tested.
Complex H&S or Inflationary candles?Back from a long pause,
These are called multiple, or complex, head and shoulder formations but my levels say the final word, let me ask you:
Acceleration of inflation or are we going to see a change in the mood?
What would set the tone for the next phase of market movement?
Why more inflation and not deflation?
Can you answer these questions?
ES needs to get above 3881.50 to continue goingI can say that the lows are in for now, but the only issue is the timing, its not going to bottom till the 22nd.
So to me it seems its going to test lows 3750ES zone by the 22nd and then go up into early high next week on the 26-27th.
Thursday should mark the bottom and then go up on Fri hard on the data is my thinking. That high should be limited to 3950-60SPX imo
ES quick update with support boxesHavent updated my ES progress chart, here is one
If first box is taken (which I think has high chances of holding tonight), then the second box in 3750ES zone should hold and bounce into the open.
If second box gets hit early am before the open, it will be a perfect buying opportunity for me for a 100 points move up plus
ES stopped at its bull trendlineLook where it stopped, loosing 3985 will be very bearish going into tomorrow.
Im looking for a long trade, ideally we make a higher low tonight.
The pathway for tomorrow can be a gap up and then sell into Wednesday or Thursday
Very important to watch that trendline holing and if broken, there will be a perfect short setup when it retests that trendline from the bottom.
If it wont re-test the thredline from the bottom (again if broken down), then it will be very bearish!
Im thinking we will see The whole Powell speech erased, support is at 3940-50ES for the whole move down.
Lets see if the price can get there tomorrow, it will be a good long entry for a 40-50 points move up
Also I have a great confidence that the whole CPI move will be erased at some point, will it be end of this year or Jan, I dont know at this moment.
15th is the Panic Cycle Day, also 1 day before OPEX.
Best scenario is we bottom after CPI and rally into Last week of Dec
As of now, I see a trading cycle turn bearish, so short the rips will be the game for me.