Es_f
#ES_F Thursday 2.09.23 Prep Previous Day: Globex built out structure over 4168-62 but did not have enough buyers to get us to our Key Resistance area for the day and once the structure broke under 68-62 we got our move lower in RTH down to 4143-37 which broke easily and opened the door for lower targets and a bigger sell off but instead it took us half a day to pull back and take another attempt without any success at breaking into 4123-19 Key Support area for the day and we ended our day in b profile under 4143-37 becoming our potential resistance.
Today: Globex opened and pushed into 4143-37 taking it out later in the night and now we are back in the scene of the crime from Yesterday. We are currently inside Previous Day Range inside T2 Range and hanging out under Key Daily Resistance area, is today the day we make another attempt higher and try to push over 4191-85 up to 4220-14 and maybe look above? or are we running out of buyers and trapping longs up here and will drop the bid under 4143-37 again? If the market is really strong we wont see it come back under 4143-37 and eventually take out 4168-62 and make an attempt at 4191-85 which would be our Key Intraday Resistance for today and if that gets taken there is always a chance to see 4120-14 and maybe the level above if it really makes a push but don't get too crazy up there as its an area of Supply and bid can either be dropped from there or can see more slower sideways action. If we fail to get over 4168-62 and fail to find support at 4143-37 then we could possibly see a test of Previous Day low, T2 low and that 4084-77 area but those area all big areas to hit and will only happen if we see break under and hold continue/ Other wise we could spend the whole day in tighter range again and possibly do break out over 4191-85 later in the day after we consolidate.
Levels to Watch:
Resistance: Key Daily 4220-4191 Key Intraday 4191-85 Current 4168-62
Support: Key Daily 4103-4077 Key Intraday 4143-37 If breaks watch 4123-19 for any continuation
#ES_F Wednesday 2.08.23 Prep Overview for 2.07.23: Globex held between Key Intraday Resistance and 4123-19 Support, once structure broke it gave us pre market flush towards 4100 but failed to tag it and we again ran out of inventory. During Powell discussion volume came in took us over 4143-37 Resistance to our second Key Intraday Resistance from where we can see bigger seller stepped in and we got the move to our target at 4103-4099 where we selling stopped and gave us a move back over the resistance filled the short stops and closed the day weak trapping end of day chasers above 4175-80 after failure a tag and fail at next Key Resistance 4191-85 doesn't we cant still move above it but we have failed around it 3 times now and if we don't get much continuation then supply will build up and shorts will start dropping the bid.
Prep for 2.08.23: Previous session we have stayed within our Daily Balance tagging both side of it in the same day and closing under our Daily Resisting after failing there again. Are we ready to attempt a break out from this daily balance or will we stay in range and maybe tighten up some more? Currently we are in 4214-4191 // 4123-4100 range, inside Previous Day Range and Over T2 Range now we will be watching to see if this 4168-62 act as Support or not and if we will be able to make a push towards 4191-85 which will be our Key Resistance going into tonight as that is an area we need to build under and then stay over to see upside, for now its showing more weakness and sideways action while trapping more longs on every push higher. If 4168-62 fails our Key Intraday Support will be 4143-37 which is also T2 High entry and should have buyers under there, If we do fail at 43-37 watch if we can get going under for our lower Targets towards 4123 4103 4084 ONLY if we can break 4143-37 for now we have accepted over it.
Levels to Watch:
Resistance: Key Daily 4214-4191 Key Intraday 4191-85
Support: Key Daily 4103-4084 Key Intraday 4143-37 Current Temp Support 4168-62 Possible Resistance?
**** Watch of Key areas to show the way
#ES_F Tuesday 2.07.23 Prep Review for Monday 2.06.23: Sunday Globex opened up and held under our Key Support of 4143-37 giving us a break into our Daily Support area under 4123-19 but found short covering front running 4103-4099 area, we took 3 attempts at it and all failed to reach which was telling us no lower continuation yet. We stayed in a tighter range as we thought we might in this area since now we have Supply over 4143-37 and buyers are still under our 4123 - 4100 -4084 areas. After big moves we need to do some cleaning, this was a good range to do it at. Question is can we stay in this range and attempt another move higher or they will slowly be marking this down and trapping buyers on their way.
Prep for Tuesday 2.07.23: Last night Globex Opened over our 4123-19 Support and since then been trading between that and Resistance. We have now accepted in this range under 4143-37 and unless we get back over it and hold there is a chance to visit lower areas. We are Under T2 range Today which signals weakness but for now inside Previous day range, we are looking to see if we will be able to hold within this range and just trade that or will we make a move out. We have our Key Resistance of continuation higher at 4143-37 as first step and 4168-62 as confirm for continuation but we now have Supply over that area so we will need to create some buying as shorts are slowing down unless we trap more here this week for another push. It could be a tricky day holding the range with a possible break lower later in the day once shorts see supply and longs are trapped so watch out for it being slow most of the day until later unless we get big volume at open and take our resistance. Getting under 4123-19 will be the first step which should have enough supply once it does to test 4103-4099 area where we see if we break it or not. Potential Targets today are 4103-4099 and 4084-77 those two will need to break to get anymore downside.
Levels to Watch:
Resistance: Key Daily 4214-4191 Key Intraday 4168-62 // 4143-37
Support: Key Daily 4100-4077 Key Intraday 4084-77 Current 4123-19 // 4103-4099
*** This Slow action and quick Reversals cleans out a lot of traders, its a clean up after a part from few weeks of run up and we are at an area where size will need to show us when we are ready to move. Expect Smaller trades unless we are breaking through levels and showing continuation.
#ES_F Monday 2.05.23 Prep Friday 2.03.23 Overview: Coming into the day we had our Globex inventory around 4168-62 Support which broke overnight, 8:30 am data gave us a flush taking out lower stops and finding support at our Key Intraday Support 4143-37, RTH Open didn't waste much time and corrected the inventory back inside the value and up to Intraday Resistance at 4191-85 this is an area we marked off to watch night before and if patient it gave a very good short trade all the way back to Intraday support, as much as it looked that we could break and keep going we also thought this day we could spend in Balance within this 4215-4140 range so the none break wasn't as surprising just frustrating. Even with the strong selling and supply building up over us we didn't break 4143-37 on that move lower which tells us that maybe we aren't done up here just yet.
Monday 2.06.23 Prep: Where are we? Currently in this bigger balance area of 4215-4100, we have supply over 4215 over 4190 and some over 4170. Friday Closed with inventory short right at Key Intraday Support, under T2 RTH range. As much as it looks like we are reversing we have to keep in mind if our business here is not done yet then we may stay around these areas some more building out structure for the next move. It is very possible to open Globex under Support and keep going or consolidate over it, break and keep going but we have to watch for this to happen first. For now looks like we have buyers under 4140 and 4120-4100, we are starting to see stronger selling from above 4190 but its not enough where they want to break it yet it seems so keep in mind until we see full breaks of Daily Support or Daily Resistance we can stay in this balance and possibly trade level to level especially if we start tightening up the range some. We could see more downside if we break 4143-37 but watch for buyers at lower support areas if we start holding and can't get under 4123-19 and especially tag or break 4103. For upside if we hold this 4143-37 can see a move back towards T2 low and maybe that 4168-62 Resistance but that would need to get taken out and get over 4191-85 to see more upside.
Levels to Watch:
Resistance: Key Daily 4215-4190 Key Intraday 4191-85 Current 4168-62 / T2 Low area
Support: Key Daily 4103-4084 Key Intraday 4123-19 // 4103-99 Current 4143-37 / Previous Day Low
**** Not a lot of market moving data this week except Fed doing discussions and Friday data release which makes it more possible to stay in some range and build structure. We keep that in mind until we see otherwise.
02/05 Weekly Plan. ES Futures March02/05 Weekly Plan. ES Futures March
Weekly Pivot is **4,140**
Upside Targets:
1. 4,172
2. 4,205
3. 4,250
Downside Targets:
1. 4,092
2. 4,065
3. 4,029
Now trading at 4,136 near weekly pivot
Alerts
You will receive alerts in this channel every time ES hits (2M candle close):
1. Weekly opening 4134.25
2. Weekly pivot at 4,140
3. Each weekly target
Side notes:
1. 2 days balance in daily timeframe H4208, HB4172, L4135.
2. OTFU in weekly timeframe
3. OTFU in monthly timeframe
4. When trading off weekly levels, each level will act as support and resistance, “no trade zones” do not apply to weekly plan
Have a great week and trade safe. @everyone
#ES_F Friday 2.03.23 Prep Review: Today we saw that our suspicions about possibly finding a place to tighten up a bit to get ready for next move might have been correct, still have to see what we do in Globex but so far the information we have is we have accepted in this 4220 - 4137 intraday range, we have supply over 4220 - 15, we have built a support last night Globex under 4061 - 62 and still have short holding us up under 4143 - 37. As long as we don't break down and fall apart or break out tonight this might be our range until we are ready for next move out or to drop the bid for lower distribution.
Prep: As Mentioned above we are currently in 4020 - 4137 Intraday Range with 4191 - 62 being our Value. Until we set up for a move outside of this range we can probably expect to spend some time in or around it and should be able to trade level to level once it sets up for a move away from value or back to value. Our T2 Range is under us which should give us support but we might dip inside it, if we do start taking out taking out Key Support or Resistance areas that is where we need to watch for reversal or continuation for a bigger move out of range or back to the other side, as mentioned it might take time now until we are ready for the move and right now is the time of patience to let things properly set up and show the way... long to set up, moves quick and reverses quick which means need to be patient and ready. I think once we are ready we have that nice space blow us to drop our bid to, we have 4100 - 4080 as potential lower support when we do but until then we might take our time.
Levels to Watch:
Resistance : Key Daily 4214 - 4191 // Key Intraday 4220 - 4215 // Intraday 4191-85
Support : Key Daily 4123 - 4084 // Key Intraday 4143 - 37 // Intraday 4168-62
#ES_F Thursday 2.02.23 Prep Review For 2.01.23: Fun day with the Fed today, not sure I how missed so many signals today for a long trade and why I was so short biased coming into today after mentioning Friday that we had more in the tank the way we closed and from our pre Fed price action. If long at the break over 4084-77 was caught, it made a nice little run over our Daily Resistance area. Our signs today were that we flushed trapped supply Monday leaving short stops above 4103 then yesterday the dip was bought and we made a lower high getting in more shorts at the area, Globex opened below and we consolidated around 4084-77 all night. When RTH failed to continue higher we built up inventory and flushed it twice but each time we failed to tag our lower Support at 4061-56 that was a big red flag because to continue lower we needed to take out 4060 area and build structure under it to be within striking distance of T2 low but we didn't do that and when Fed data came out at 2pm and 2:30pm Periods we both dipped under breaking the support but quickly coming back out signaling no supply, once 84-77 was taken again strong we had shorts trapped under us and once we took the stops over 4090 and 4110 that covering provided the buying to get us higher. Question going forward is will we accept here for now and attempt to distribute lower or will we come back in and how long will this move hold before continuing or reversing?
Overview For 2.02.23: We are currently over our Daily Resistance area of 4123-4084 over this intra day range top of 4143-37, over T2 range with position below us at 4084-77 area. Question going forward is are we ready to keep moving, reverse or is this a good area to tighten up the range a bit while we still have Support below us and Supply above us too keep us from running away too much? If they wanted to keep this in some balance to clean out more traders before we decide on direction then this would be a good spot to do it but at these areas anything can happen really so its best to watch level to level. Going into Globex for me this 4143-37 area is like out middle for tonight with our Resistance being 4168-62 and possible Support down at 4123-19. Until things are clear we watch for set ups around resistance and support and trade towards the middle unless there is a break and continuation or break/hold over to either side, if we are to keep ranges small that might be the case going into RTH tomorrow but all will depend on what we do tonight if we drop the bid at night and start taking out our lower Support areas then we need to watch out.
Levels to Watch:
Next Daily Resistance 4214-4191 Intraday Resistance 4168-62 // 4191-85 // 4220-14
Possible Daily Support? 4123-4103 ( Previous Resistance not really tested)
Intraday Support 4123-19 // 4103-99 // 4084-77 If we happen to do reverse at night or some point and break those levels next daily Support is 4012-3990
****** There are a lot of split views right now with people thinking we should reverse fall apart or keep going to 4300-4500 which might give us some indecision and smaller ranges with moves taking longer to clean people out unless our business is concluded today and shorts are covered to drop the bid lower or we get over 4168-62 and hold to continue higher AND IF we do get under 4143-37 tonight and just continue to drip lower don't look to buy at support but instead this might be a reversal back towards 4084-77 and under don't stand in the way if we can hold lower areas
#ES_F Wednesday 02.01.23 Prep Review: Tuesday Globex opened and held under 4046-42 and after we built up enough supply we broke 4030-25 Range low and hit the top of our daily support at 4012. After we got over and held over 4030-25 pre market the shorts from the morning were trapped under 4030 giving us support. As long as 4030-25 wasn't taken out our trade was to the upside back to resistance areas with final target being 4084-77 area but for some reason I formed a very short bias for a reversal today even though we found a bid at support area and did look below and fail away from key level but couldn't help but try to catch reversals from 61-56 and over until finally lost that thinking to see what was happening and figured an end of day probe over into resistance would be in order for todays close and caught a nice pull back reversal from above 61-56 level from 67.50 to 88.50 to end a day.
Overview: We are back in the same place we opened Sunday Globex.... Did anyone get washed out??? Hope not! We are on a mission right now and size is getting their fill. Opened today right at 4084-77 lower end of key Daily resistance with some supply above, currently right on top of T2 High and inside Previous Days Range with two data releases and the fed.... Fun fun, not the best day to try to predict what will happen and think you can catch those moves safely or predict where we will go but for now we know this... we are possibly in distribution mode, we are currently at the top of at our bigger resistance level but doesn't mean we are ready to go down, data tomorrow will bring volume. Depending or not if we are ready to move out of this range we will have to see if key locations get taken out and watch for continuation.
Levels to Watch:
Daily Resistance: 4123-4084 Intraday Resistance: 4084-77 // 4104 // 4124-19 // 4143-37
Daily Support: 4012-3990 Intraday Support: 4061-56 // 4061-42 // 4030-25 // 4012-08 // 3994-89 IF Broken lower cost basis is in 3957-3940 area
We are currently in distribution balance covering the shorts and cleaning up the supply, we have to be careful at these areas as supply can be cut quick and introduced the same way, we see that we are still holding up and prices are bringing in buyers so business up here is not over just yet but in the mean time we can trade level to level and watch for continuations outside.
#ES_F Tuesday 1.31.23 Prep Review: Sunday Globex opened right at key level of 4084-7, attempted to get back over but failed trapping the buyers and yesterdays end of day supply above. We sold got the move lower which broke 4061-56 and found buyers at lower support area of 4046-42 pre market. At RTH Open we corrected short inventory back to our Resistance area of 4084-77 where more sellers stepped in. Selling back down and holding under 4061-56 was showing us that this is now our resistance making possible target at 4046-42 which was already tested multiple times and T2 low below it at our 4031-25 Support. We did get our move lower but it happened towards the end of the day which makes us think there are still buyers below and we didn't have enough supply to break it just yet. Good trades today from resistance down, stayed with the trend.
Overview: We are currently in distribution mode and our range is 4077-4030, we got up against big resistance last week and trapped some more supply over 4084 which we saw today coming out under 4061. We had enough short covering today to keep us up over resistance and not test T2 Low which was at key support until end of day... does that tell us that the buying is so strong and keeping us up or are we just taking our time dropping the bid lower to not scare off willing buyers? Tonight our nearest Resistance is at 4046-42 and Support is at 4030-25 since we are in distribution mode we are not sure when they will be done and ready to move out of this range. We are currently below T2 range but inside Previous Day range, as long as we are holding under 4061-56 that is a sign of continued weakness from above but must see a break of 4030-25 for first sign of lower continuation and then get under 4012-08. For signs of reversals to the upside we must hold 4030-25 and start taking out higher resistance areas and especially holding over 4061-56. Can we stay in distribution range until data starts hitting this week to bring more volume or will we make a move outside the range again?
Levels to Watch:
Daily Resistance: 4123-4084 Intraday Resistance: 4084-77 // 4061-56 // 4046-42
Daily Support: 4012-3988 Intraday Support: 4030-25 // 4012-08 // 3994-89 If Broken then 3957-53 // 3944-40
#ES_F Monday 1.30.23 PrepThis week we find ourselves opening right against bigger resistance area of 4120-4080, its a big market moving data week which will bring in volume. Lots of traders are looking for this to either reverse hard or keep going to 4150-4200-4300 those two are great options and another is to use this to maybe shake things up on both sides. It feels like there is still more covering to do and at the same time we are at an area of bigger supply which warns us of uncertainty. We have been making some big moves and maybe we found a location to range a little bit? Do some cleaning and get ready for next step? We will have to see what action we get this week but if that turns out the case then will be looking at 4120-4000 as our bigger range for now until we fully break through either side.
Areas to watch tonight are 4084-77 // 4061-56, If we completed our business over 84 for now and trapped that supply then we will want to buy it back cheaper. If we cant get back over 84-77 that might give us a test of Fridays low and that 4061-56 level to see if we can shake things up and from there will have to watch it level to level with our potential support being at 4046-42 and lower with T2 Low being right at 4030-25 Support. Thinking that if we stay in this bigger range then we might get some good two way trading this week because of this indecision with buyers under 4000 and sellers over 4100 but also a chance to see quick reversals.
We are currently accepted in 4077-4030 area and Friday move was a stop run but we have to watch if we build structure around it then get back over it.
Levels to Watch:
Daily Resistance 4120-4084 Intraday 4143-37 // 4123-19 // 4103-4100 // 4084-77
Daily Support 4012-3990 Intraday 4061-56 // 4046-42 // 4030-25 // 4012-08
01/29 Weekly Plan. ES Futures March01/29 Weekly Plan. ES Futures March
Weekly Pivot is 4,035
Targets
1. 4,074
2. 4,110
3. 4,141 .
Targets
1. 4,001
2. 3,955
3. 3,906 .
*Now trading at 4,084 near Weekly wT1
You will receive alerts in this channel every time ES hits (2M candle close):
1. Weekly opening
2. Weekly pivot at 4,035
3. Each weekly target.
*Side notes: ***
1. OTFU in daily timeframe.
2. OTFU in weekly timeframe
3. Balance in monthly timeframe. 4 months zone. H4141 HB3,821, L3,502.
4. When trading off weekly levels, each level will act as support and resistance, “no trade zones” do not apply to weekly plan.
Have a great week and trade safe
ES_F Week Recap. Is there more upside? Review: This weeks agenda was short covering, market got too short under 3930 and we used the covering do drive us higher to our bigger supply areas where we can find more selling. We have successfully arrived at our next bigger time frame supply level. Wasn't an easy week to trade as they didn't make this move up as fun for everyone but levels held nicely and targets were reached. Last few data releases were different than what we are used to and trades take longer to set up so extra patience is required. End of day today we used the short stops that we built second half of the day to unload our inventory and run it up over 4103 where we found more sellers from where we dropped the bid end of day. The way we closed at first seemed bad for the longs in a way that we have trapped inventory over 4084 and that was that, after review it makes me think that possibly we just found supply and dropped our bid to cover lower but I think there is still some more covering to do up here. Doesn't seem like we are ready to reverse just yet..
Overview: Coming week has lots of data so it wont be an easy one, best to take it day by day and let the market show us what we are doing. Sunday Globex will have to show us the next set up... our potential support is under 4084-77, our position end of day was in that area as well. Monday is no news/data day which means less volume and after todays end of day drop we might have less bullish traders in globex so they can buy it back cheaper and try to make another run at it, depends where we open but we should be over T2 range which tells us more shorts are trapped under for potential support and if we run out of supply in 4100-4084 area then we will need to get more over Fridays high which if broken will create more buying to possibly get us to test next supply area. Our support is under 4084-77, red flag if we break and start holding under 4061-56, ideally we consolidate under or above support then start pushing away from 4084 again during RTH BUT since its a big supply area they might try to consolidate then get over 4100 during Globex since there is less volume and use that as support later in the day, if that happens we might will have to watch potential support under 4100 and resistance areas stay the same. Have to be careful up here because size is doing business here and they don't care what anyone thinks as they will get their fill or do what they need to do. We are towards an edge where things like reversals happen but that takes time to play out or can be very quick.
If we did happen to finish this move higher and longs are trapped, we have to start seeing price break and hold below our lower support areas and moving away from this supply, until then they might keep moving it higher.
Levels to Watch: Resistance: 4168-4162 //4143-37 // 4123-19 // 4100 Support: 4084-77 // 4061-56 // 4030-25 // 4012-08 // 3957-53
#ES_F Friday 1.27.23 Overview Review of 1.26.23: Last night Globex opened and found support on our TPOC location from Monday-Tuesday right above our 4030-25 level. We used the volume from morning data to run the stops over 4046 and get us up against our resistance before RTH Open. RTH opened with the stop run over ON High into Supply area where we found our sellers which took us down and broke morning support but inability to break 4030-25 gave us clues that we have buyers below and we can see that below us on the left that we might have trapped some shorts on yesterdays move back out. We took in all of the supply above and made another run, I assume they might have waited until the end of the day to run it because we had so much supply above, even the push over it was slow and grindy which doesn't mean its weak but to me says lots of sellers and the buyers are just the unwilling shorts getting bought in. Besides the slow and grindy action levels held very nice and targets were hit, in the morning started thinking they might have the juice to get over 84 but with them having to first flush out supply was not enough gas but we hit 77.25 almost to the tick.
Overview for 1.27.23: We will have to see how Globex will set up before PCE Tomorrow but we are now in area of supply, our bigger time frame level above is 4084-4123 which is our pocket of resistance and supply. Since we are up here and covering they might need more liquidity to get covered and with tomorrows data they might try to use that to make a run at it. Depending on how they will play it out I think we can have a very tricky day because we are currently over T2 high, over Monday high but we are within range and willing buyers might be running out, do we flush everyone lower, trap shorts and use that to head over 4084 into supply, do we build a base here get over it and head for that then flush it back down? lots of questions for tomorrow and might be a difficult day. We have our potential support under 4061-56 and 4046-42 levels if we make a run for higher supply area and fail there and start taking out those supports the flush can can be big to the downside. Letting things open and show the way might be a smart thing to do tomorrow;
Levels to Watch: Resistance : 4143-37 // 4123-4119 // 4103-4099 // 4084-77 Potential Support 4046-42 // 4030-25 // 4013-08 // 3994-89
Area to watch is 4061-56 and 4084-77 Tonight and RTH Tomorrow
IF we do happen to get a big move down, better support areas below are 3957-53 // 3944-40 Which is our T2 Low area
#ES_F Thursday 1.26.23 Overview Review: Last night Globex opened and drove under 4030-25 trapping supply over which started our move overnight move. Yesterday we had signs that inventory is still low and someone is buying, Globex was used to drop the bid under Previous day low which helped get us under 94-89 and our T2 Low Support which made more people sell out into the buying under 3976-71. Once selling has stopped the inventory was short and our supply was back over 4030-25, today showed us that there is still size covering and wanting that supply. 4076-71 was look below and fail, once we got back over T2 Low and 3994-89 position was below us.
Overview: Interested to see what we will do in Globex tonight, we still have supply that is coming out from above this 4042 area and now our buyers are under 4025 and under 4012-08. If we break under 4030-25 there might be a chance to visit 4012-08 or close to it, if we wont see a full test or break under it that will show strength going into RTH but it might be a tricky day as we might be trying to get as many sellers shaken out before making another run at bigger Supply area. as long as we are holding over 4000-4012 area there is a good chance to make another attempt higher to 4046-42 // 4061-56 which would be our T2 High and maybe get close to 4084-77. Ideally we don't go there tonight first but instead come down lower and consolidate. If we do get over 4061 at whatever point that is not the best area to add because that is an area of bigger supply and things can come to an end quick. Area to be careful at.
If we do break under 4012-08 - 4000 those will be first red flags and break and hold under 95-89 would be a big warning might change things to the downside pretty quick.
Levels to Watch: 3994-89 // 4012-08 // 4035-25 // 4046-42 // 4061-56 // 408477
#ES_F Wednesday 01.25.23 Overview Review: Didn't have enough gas today to get to our supply area, Globex spent most of the night between 4042-430 building up supply, break of that trapped supply from yesterday and overnight above it, that was our first red flag to be cautious today as if we were to continue strong we would have held that area in Globex. Area mentioned for possible support was 4012-08 which we could see pre market that we were holding above, when opened we did failure to break the first sign that level is holding then look below and come back in was the main trade for the day which got us back to overnight supply where we found more sellers and went sideways again over VWAP selling over 4030. Great day, support provided great trades, second half of the day was the hardest today.
Overview: We had an interesting open today, we closed RTH with a stop run over 4046-42 and over 5 hours of selling over Vwap. Opened and drove under that consolidation area trapping the longs making it our supply area going forward. This can be a good chance to see if we have enough supply to break todays low and get more people to sell some, under Previous Low we have our next Potential Support at 3995-89 with has T2 low and position below it, if we have enough selling we can see that area tested but overall we are inside T2 range, judging from todays action we still have shorts trying to cover so I wont be surprised if we still do a test of Monday high and area above it. We have to see what Globex does, for the upside to happen we will have to look strong below 4012-08 and 3094 if we get under them and get back over 4030-25 for final confirmation.
If we get below 3994-89 and hold under it that changes things, until then we can still get good amount of short covering and a run into a supply zone, longer we hold over this area and over the trendline more customers we can have.
Levels to Watch: 3995-89 // 4012-08 // 4030-25 // 4046-42 // 4061-56 Not looking to hold too much above last night unless showing good strength because its bigger supply area.
If selling is strong but not strong enough to get under T2 Low and not enough buying to get over and hold 4030 Then potential for inside day between 4030-4000
#ES_F Overview for 1.24.23 Review: Short covering continued today, during Globex we held above 3976-71 Support, consolidated under VWAP before then open and once we took the open out off we went, we flushed most of the supply out of this area last Wednesday so this move over 4030 was much easier without much consolidation needed on the way up. We saw our first decent correction and need to consolidate to go higher at 4046-42 which was first resistance target. We were able to take it out and hit next level at 4061-56 where we found more supply which gave a nice correction to VWAP, the higher it gets the more supply there will be so have to be careful at these areas as we might have found our range for distribution.
Overview: We have possibly found our distribution range between 4077-4030, have to see how we hold Globex but there is a good possibility to see a test of today's high at some point, will it hold or not is for us to find out. Ideally we hold 4030-25 support but very likely we could see some sort of flush under it before, as long as we hold over 4012-08 the upside has a chance of playing out. If we take a dip under 4030-25 and can consolidate under without breaking it will be a good information, unless we make some move over it tonight.
Levels to Watch: 4012-08 // 4030-25 // 4046-42 // 4061-56 // 84-77
#ES_F Overview for Monday 1.23.23 Review: Last week Thursday we got back to our possible support area under 3930 and we could see the short covering stabilize the price before RTH at 3915-10 area which was important going forward, during RTH we failed to continue lower and only did a look below Globex low and came back in without reaching next level and taking out the low from 1.10 signaling that sellers are running out. Friday Globex we consolidated more getting all the supply secured, RTH open gave us a flush under VWAP to get the last sellers out and once we got over 30 again shorts were trapped and we began mark up back to our Supply area which is over 3990.
Overview: That flush Wednesday took out a lot sellers from this area so now we might be able to get through it easier and head for our next Resistance area. As we know the goal is to sell product higher to willing buyers and we need to create some demand, ideally we can hold over this 76-71 area or at least over 60 as we now have support below those areas and see a move higher to take out last weeks high which will bring in more demand to the store. I will be looking to see if we get any pull back tonight towards 76-71 area and if it holds or not, the way we high closed Friday we might not get much of a pull back and instead take out 94-89 area first and head for 4000 pocket, if that happens then any pull back to and under 94-89 could be a good opportunity to buy and eventually if we hold over this area and get through that 4000 pocket we can see a push higher into next resistance area to 4046-61 maybe little over it depending how much buying we get.
Levels to Watch: 3976-71 // 3995-89 // 4012-08 // 4030-25 // 4046-42 // 4061-56
For better confirmation we can wait until 4012-08 gets taken/hold either in Globex or RTH tomorrow, if in Globex then we might see a re-test in RTH but either way if we get over this area we could see our move to 4030-25 // 4046-42 and if that is that 61-56. Trading it level to level is a safer bet since we would be in supply area and never know what can happen but ideally everything holds up nicely and we get the full move.
IF we don't hold 76-71 first red flag, breaking under 60 big red flag and will need to wait because if that happens then trip lower could happen but being up here I would think that they will try to run the highs to bring in more buyers to sell product into.
SPY New High - likely headed higher.Are you following my research yet?
Check out my SPY Cycle Patterns and decide for yourself if my predictions are accurate:
SPY Cycle Patterns for this week:
1/15/2023 GAP Potential
1/16/2023 GAP-Reversal
1/17/2023 Breakdown201
1/18/2023 POP
1/19/2023
1/20/2023 BaseRally301
1/21/2023 Break-Away
1/22/2023 Rally-111
1/23/2023 Carryover
1/24/2023 Inside-Breakaway
1/25/2023 Harami-Inside
1/26/2023 CRUSH
1/27/2023 Rev-Rally
Now, using traditional Fibonacci price modeling, we can see the recent support level held and a New High was reached.
This indicates the SPY will likely attempt a bit of consolidation/rotation over the next 4+ days, but will likely rally even higher in early Feb.
Follow my research. It's simple and easy to follow.
Daily Bias for the week of 1/17/23 - 1/20/23This week preparing my daily bias has been a bit tougher than last week. Fundamentally I am bearish! There are too many signals in our economy that we have a deeper bear market in store for us, possibly deeper than we saw in 2022. However, putting that aside and putting to practice solely what I see on the chart, which is what this weekly exercise is for, this chart represents my bias for the upcoming week.
There are 4 points to the trend line which represent the general direction I anticipate price travels during the upcoming week. We may go higher and then pivot lower, however, the general direction for the week is what I am expecting more so than getting it correct each day.
Let's see how this week plays out! I am quite pleased with the results from my previous daily bias, however, this exercise is not about being right or wrong and ego is out of the equation. This is simply taking what I have become quite good at on lower time frames and implementing it on higher time frames.
Happy trading folks!
1/17 Daily Plan - ES Futures 4,002 is today's pivot. 1/17 Daily Plan - ES Futures 4,002 is today's pivot.
Please add " " to ensure this message is reaching people. Now 4,007 @everyone
Secondary pivot will be the Yellow Line and Opening Price Zone which will be market generated information. Secondary pivot will come into play today. Today's plan was designed to look for reversals at zone 1, 2 and 3.
ES is now OTFU in daily. We are OTFU in weekly since we traded above the 3 weeks balance zone.
Targets
1. 4,017
2. 4,026
3. 4,042
Targets
1. 3,990
2. 3,973
3. 3,961