ES stopped at its first good support trendline, SPX broke itCheck the orange line and see a link for the SPX chart below.
ES stopped at the support trendline (we broke out from on Jul 27th and now re-tested from the top)
Expect this to be a good support for at least this week.
SPX already broke it but stopped at smaller trendline from Sep 1 and 6th lows.
Apparently I can post 10 charts per day on this website and not more, so I will try to include links to my charts in my updates.
But this is very annoying, especially on days like today, I need an interactive trading platform so we all can share our charts and chat during the day.
I will do a separate SPX update with levels for tomorrow in an hour or so
But want to mention one thing:
- Usually the price reverses fully into Fri after the FOMC day.
Tomorrow is a directional change till Fri, expect a good size bounce and then lower into the 27th low.
After that low we should rally into early Oct high and make a final low Oct 28-31st (I will mention my main target in the SPX update)
Es_f
ES must hold todays lows or at least 3900 levelYou can see how close it is for a breakdown, this in idea should bounce into Monday and then continue lower.
But tomorrow is quarterly OPEX and most of the hedges are going offline, so much wider swings should unleash.
This has air all the way till 3800 on the ES, so be careful if long, get ready to flip if it starts going
Main resistance and supports were outlined in my latest SPX update
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One clear possibility on Jackson Hole WeekAdding the developing Head & Shoulders pattern to the clear accumulation and distribution seen on the 4h chart from June's lows until now. Note that the VPOC has already moved up from 3771 to 4137 (where we've been essentially stuck for days).
If the pattern triggers and reaches target, $ES would be right back to the accumulation cost basis, with big momo traders having pocketed a hefty 350+ point profit.
ES 1h cloud held the bottomLets see if we get to test the bottom of the Bollinger or 4060-80ES
It should hold and continue lower to re-test Thursday's lows as well as close the gap
The pressure is down and if we close on the lows today, this will continue selling into the 15th low!
If we satisfy 3955SPX today or even test lower and close above 3955SPX, then it could be a good sign of a local bottom
Needs below 4005-4000SPX for more waterfall
ES close to its main resiatance at 4115Im going to short 4115 level tomorrow am or if we get there in pre-market am
Ideally we test my 4125-35SPX (4115-25ES) tomorrow and retrace hard into the 13th low
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ES TONIGHT PATHWAYIm looking for3965 test and blast to 4015-20 tomorrow am.
4020ES and 4025SPX is a very heavy resistance, expect a rejection with some pullback and then another push to go over it.
Im lightly short for the 4065ES target, will flip long from 4062-64 level
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ES is in triangle, not looking bullish to my eyesI don't like ES and the NQ being in triangle, I think it will be broken soon.
Will be entering with short on the break, target is the same 3840-50 might even stretch to 3830ES.
Again IF we break to the downside.
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ES very tricky both H&S and IHSI wont rule out a gap down tomorrow into the support cluster zone of 3910-50SPX.
ES has a small H&S pattern, visible on 5 min and bigger ISH, visible here.
Im not going to fight it when it breaks in either direction.
The cycle window for the low is today, it can stretch into tomorrow with lower lows being bought in am and rally all day.
This is my best guess for tomorrow, unless we gap up and rally all day as well.
Monthly closing resistance was provided in previous update
Must hold 3980 here again
Daily analysis & day trading setups - SPX500 SPX S&P500 20220829Happy New Week, Happy Monday,
4023 is the line in the sand. SPX is stuck between 100DMA @ 4056 & 50DMA @ 4000
Break of either will clear the direction
Macro ECB Lane Speech, US Fed's Brainard Speech
Buy
Break: 4 041, 056, 065, 095
Reversal: 4 000, 3 982, 955, 935
Sell
Break: 4 000, 3 985, 956, 936
Reversal: 4 042, 055, 076, 095, 110, 125
I regularly publish my daily analysis & trading plan for day trading setups. The links are here:
NASDAQ
DAX
SPX
Green Goblin levels are here >>>
Fibonacci Confluence levels are here >>>
ES to follow through the Fri moveI really want to see a low made pre-market and reverse into the open, that would be very bullish!
4160-75 is the main resistance one and one more to follow at 4200, that should cap any move up.
Going to buy longs tonight and exit ES short around 4k, if we get there.
I will be shorting that move up from 4160-70 and then 4200 for a move down to 3920-50.
Im thinking there is a good chance of this up move to be extened into the Sep OPEX after the upcoming low. Can get above 4300 again or make a lower low, all depends on how low we go on this move down.
Support is at 3990-4005ES for tonight.
ES AHs updatePerfect 4200 hit, I had few running from 4148, some was exited at 4172 and 80, one at 4196.5. Have only 2 left, will exit at BE or if we extend to 4210-20.
Im short NQ after the close.
Nothing broken, Im looking at it as another bear rally. EOM will be quite surprising.
Its def frustrating for many who short every top, have stops!!! Always hedge! If resistance broken, flip to the long side, its that simple.
My internet problems cost me 3k in un-managed stops, was able to cover half before the close, but still not fun
Tomorrow is a weekly closing, as well as PCE numbers, last 2 times we sold off hard on those, will the history repeat?
Im betting on down, bought some Aug 31 puts as lotto trade as well as I have NQ shorts running.
Its a directional change tomorrow, only 2 scenario, it will just continue the same pathway and we go up to close the gap or just open down and make a reversal.
Make your bets, I made mine. Its a game we all play, never 100% but must win more then loose.
Again, always have stops!
Will do SPX later tonight, when I see updated numbers and cycles.