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Es_f

ES AHs updateES broke the uptrend small channel off am lows, good sign there. Its also jumped out its upper bull trend channel, must watch for possible fake out. If it means business for the bulls, I will trade the re-test of the trendline in am. If you look at the chart, you can see that we hit 1.618 to the penny and the price is hovering right at the extension zone. I say it's a very important place to continue or reject, it seems we hit the wall here imo. Im swing short here and have no stops at the moment, will be watching for the breakout to hold or fail
CME_MINI:ES1!Short
by RealTima
1
Bear market over? The structure shift we will need to see.We can observe the weekly trend in MES which mirrors SPX and all SPX futures. Following consecutive lower lows and lower highs, we have broken the prior swing high to create a higher high. Equal highs and the weekly fair value gap above act as a draw on liquidity. Weekly fair value gap below also acts as a draw on liquidity. Retest and ‘double bottom’ in weekly demand would confirm a higher low following this higher high. Until proven otherwise, this is still a corrective move in a downtrend on higher timeframes.
CME_MINI:MES1!
by SpinTrades
#ES_F Major Inflection Point !Wow what a rally - from 3639 to now 4155!!! Question is : was this just a bear market rally and are we going to see another leg down.... Or is this a regime change and the start of another bull run to 6000 ?! Although I have completely no idea :) , I do know where we are at now is a major indicator and inflection point IMO of what's to come for the remainder of 2022 for 2 major reasons. 1) MAJOR trendline that stems from 2018 - present being tested (white line) which price has responded to throughout 2020 and 2021 AND 2) 30 WEEKLY MA at 4200 which is a very important Technical inflection point often used to identify stocks' phases by Stan Weinstein. A breakout above with continuation should trigger large inflows while any rejection or signs of weakness will have people running for the exits. Very exciting next couple weeks! Keep in mind JPM has a massive collar on 4340C/3905P/3290P for SEP as well... and they usually don't lose (although they surely can rollll ) ;0 Cheers
CME_MINI:ES1!
by FriscoTrades
$SPY Mr. Market update and possible inflection pointMr. Market has had a nice rally from sub 400 to now trading 410 zone and right at the daily 100MA Could be a major inflection point as we head into next week and a lot of supply overhead now on what is basically a pump from Apple AMZN and a few other earnings as well as the result of net short option positioning , and lack of sellers "in the hole" . If you believe another major leg down is imminent, August - Sept seems likely as we now have had a decent bear market rally to accompany the thesis. If you believe we go higher, look for some nice consolidation now and even retracement before starting the next leg up Either way, I'd be careful adding longs here as the next weeks most likely involve downside or consolidation as this recent move up is digested. IMO it's low probability of going straight up higher, but not out of the question if we get major news on - Ukraine war, etc. Personally I've closed most my longs for decent / good profit and starting building shorts with mostly cash position right now. My lean is short / no trend here. Cheers : )
AMEX:SPYShort
by FriscoTrades
2
QQQ Nice breakoutTook QQQ 311C for tomorrow as discussed in yesterdays post. With AAPL AMZN after hours reaction, these calls gonna open up 300% tomorrow. Also took AMZN 130C for ER. i will be done at the open. There is going to be a lot of FOMO tomorrow in the markets. Make sure u sell into strength tomorrow. Bears might throw in the towel after these ER reactions and probably bulls who ever sidelined are going to chase as well. So better to take profits and wait for a pullback.
NASDAQ:QQQLong
by savage_Trader
QQQ near swing highsRight at last swing highs. SPY and IWM are already above these highs. Closed above these highs. QQQ right on it. Double top for now but Watch it tomorrow for either a confirmation of double top and pullback or a breakout over 308.55. We have AAPL AMZN reporting after hours tomorrow. We are right in the middle of congestion zone shown in the highlighted area. Generally whenever we enter into the congestion zone, there is a 80% chance we go to the other end of congestion zone. In this case around 312 - 314.60.
NASDAQ:QQQ
by savage_Trader
SPY and ESIndexes are still sideways on weekly timeframe between 3640 - 3950. Its been 5 weeks for now and i think we may have another week of this chop. Market will mostly break this range after the fed meeting on JUL 27th. If we look at candle stick chart on weekly time frame, we can see that we had alternate red and green weeks and mostly closed below the 50% of the range for the week if its a red week and above 50% of range if its a green week. This week broke that pattern, we had a red week but closed almost at the highs of the range. POC and also is at the highs of the week which is good. Coming to the Daily profile, Friday's profile is pretty peculiar with single prints above and below the close price. You can see that we have single prints from 3884 - 3900 on the upside and 3820 - 3811 on the downside which were created Friday on the back of strong retail report. Pretty rare that we see single prints both above and below so close to the closing price of the week. Coming to Friday’s profile, its a “P” shaped profile which generally indicates emotional short term trading especially when it occurs in a choppy range based market. UUP weekly candle looks like a topping candle but i would have been more confident if we got it on DXY too. DXY weekly has back to back top wicks after an extended rally. So, there could definitely be merit for UUP topping candle. As i have been saying for several weeks now, this USD strength is not good for global economies. Leave Asia or Africa, take Europe as an example, EU is a net importer of primary goods. They import most of food, beverages and oil whose prices have been soaring and due to USD strength, their Euro is down in the gutter already. USD/EUR is at parity last week. If this dollar strength persists, EU will have a lot of pressure on its forex reserves and combined with their central bank lagging miles behind the curve on inflation and rate hikes, its a recipe for disaster. US equities cannot stage a consistent rally unless USD comes under control imo. OIL is another market which needs to hold around this 90-100 range imo. Apart from severe demand destruction, i don't see any other reason why oil should come down drastically especially with Biden’s Saudi trip not yielding much results. If demand destruction occurs, it should only come with recession whether mild recession or strong recession is another debate altogether but we should have something which is again not good for markets. CPI came in pretty hot last week and everyone was calling for a crash on markets with some people calling 3400, 3500 on ES but i had a different view. I said it will be really difficult for markets to break 3700 and ES held that level like a champ and rallied almost 150points. The main reason for this is oil prices being down a lot from last month and that should help reduce next months CPI reading. Although oil prices are just down to may levels where we had high CPI number too, it is only one piece of the puzzle. Take a look at commodity prices, they are off 21% from highs and still down 10% from may readings too. Shipping prices well off their highs too and these two things combined with oil prices should give us a lower CPI reading imo. Market is always forward looking and i thought if CPI reading was going to come in lower for JUL month, there is no need for markets to panic on last reading. Thats why i was inclined towards that down move being a trap for bears. Being said that about CPI, now FED needs to calm down and not do 100bps hike on JUL 27th meeting. If indeed CPI is going to come down next month, there is no need for them to be too aggressive with 100bps hike and choke off money supply to the markets. I personally would like 50bps hike in JUL, AUG and SEP rather than than do 75bps now and 25bps in SEP just to give economy a little breathing room to regain its growth but more than likely they might go 75bps in JUL. In any way market is already anticipating 75bps and should be ok with it as long as Powell’s language doesn’t seem too hawkish. Levels for week: Bull Bear line - 3870 Below 3870, We can see 3826, 3812, 3776, 3756 Above 3870, we can see 3886, 3900, 3912, 3950.
CME_MINI:ES1!
by savage_Trader
#ES 07.14.22 Daily Overview and Levels to WatchYday before CPI we ran up to take stops and sell lower inventory into the stops until CPI hit and the bid dropped, we hit our lower Key Level at 3764.75-3760.50 where we found support and we able to put together a position to go and back fill the CPI move back towards our Globex inventory area where we found sellers who took us back under Key Level of 3809.50-3805.25. Last night we tested this Key Level and found Sellers at it making it resistance and we started rotation lower. Currently We broke out Key Level of 3764.75-3760.50 and finding accepted under it with 2747.50-4744.75 as last important support for today. We have Price Index at 8:30am and we are kind of in this area that needs resolution before next move. Question today is will we be able to get back inside the range over 3764.75-3760.50 and accept there or will we get continuation lower? Depending what we get on release but looks like we will open under T+2 Low which means possible margin call selling and should open below or close to the low of Previous Day which would be an area to watch and its also our Key Level of 3764.75-3760.50 If we continue lower we have single prints to fill down around next Key Level at 3714.75-3709.75 where we can find support or 3698.50-3695.50 is another spot to watch, if going down on big volume possible to see lower areas as we have been waiting to test the lows from 06.17 for few weeks now. --- On The Downside: Failing to accept back in Previous Days Range and over our Key Level of 3764.75-3760.50 can give us a test of 3747.50-3744.75 where we want to monitor for break and continuation or rejection if we can break it we have 3728.75-3725.25, Key Level of 3714.75-3709.75 this is area with single prints and trapped shorts where we can see response but if going down on volume we have 3698.50-3695.50 as additional support, if we break both of those then we have 3686.75-3683.75, Key Level 3671.75-3665.75, if we get there we could possibly test the lows today as well but down there have to watch for continuation level to level as we should have buyers. --- On The Upside: If we fail to take out 3747.50-3744.75 and get back over 3764.75-3760.50 and accept then we can balance between this area and T+2 Low area and upper levels we can test would be 3780.50-3776.75, 3791.75-3787.75 *** Levels To Watch: 3764.75-3760.50 // 3747.50-3744.75 // 3714.75-3709.75 // 3698.50-3695.50 // 3671.75-3665.75
CME_MINI:ES1!
by HollowMn
#ES 07.07.22 Daily Overview with Levels to WatchYday we were able to hold above our Key Support at 3809.50-3805.25 and after the FOMC release got a push over Previous Day High and over next Key Level of 3853.25-3847.25. Globex we failed to get back under 3853.25-3847.25 and accept and got a push back over it but so far we have been hanging out here between Key Level and next level up under Previous Day high which is usually a sign of distribution to me as we still have supply above keeping us down but on the other hand we can be absorbing it here before next move up since we are holding over T2 High area for today but I think Market is waiting for ADP and Claims to make the move. Question today is do we have enough people trapped that will help push us higher today and fill the sets of singles we have above us or will we back in under this 53-47 area making this supply that would help and push us back into T2 range. --- On The Upside: Holding above T2 High area of 3839-3835.50 and 3853.25-3847.25 is a continued sign of strength, if we fail to push lower and accept this can give us a push higher and possibly more buy ins today towards the single -prints and upper levels. We can see 3866.75-3863.25, 3878.75-3874.75 which would be our first area to watch for continuation since its Previous Days High then Key Level and first big area of single prints at 3892.25-3887.25 This is where we would see how strong the move is and if we can fill that/accept and continue towards 3901.25-3898 , 3914.75-3910.75 and 3931.75-3927.25 But we have supply above so have to monitor level to level. --- On The Downside: Staying under previous days high and 3866.75-3863.25 can give us a test of 3853.25-3847.25 getting under that would be our first sign of weakness and can give us a test of T2 High area at 3839-3835.50 this is where we would need to see for break and acceptance for any continuation lower, if we do accept back in T2 range and now we will have more inventory from above that can help and push us towards T2 half back areas and possibly the Low depending on how much selling we get IF we do accept back in we will be looing for 3825.50-3820.25 Key Level 3809.50-3805.25 if that goes then can see 3791.75-3787.75, 3780.50-3776.75, 3764.75-3760.50 *** Levels To Watch: 3892.25-3887.25 // 3878.75-3874.75 // 3853.25-3847.25 // 3839-3835.50 // 3809.50-3805.25
CME_MINI:ES1!
by HollowMn
#ES 07.06.22 Daily Overview with Levels to WatchYday we tested the T2 Low/Previous day Low and found support there and were actually able to drive back towards previous day high, in Globex we attempted few times to get over Previous Day High with failures but we are not getting much selling because we still have shorts trapped below who buy this up every time we come down towards the singles. Question today is will we have enough buying to get use over Previous Day High and T2 High area to maybe see a short squeeze higher or will we fail to get over and will have enough supply to come down and test lower Key Areas along with T2 Low/Previous Day low again and maybe this time break it. We have Jolt and FOMC Minutes tomorrow so also possible market will stay in Balance inside Previous Days range while waiting for those releases. --- On The Upside: Holding above our Key Level of 3809.50-3808.25 is continued sign of strength and from there we can see tests of 3825.50-3820.25, 3839-3835.50 which will be our area to watch for continuation high as that will be T2 and Previous Day High location, above that Key Level of 3853.25-3847.25 to really confirm the upside and for us to continue. --- On The Downside: Holding Below Previous Day High area of 3839-3835.50 can give us a test of 3825.50-3820.50, Key Area of 3809.50-3805.25 this and level below which would be Previous day Half Back at 3791.75-3787.75 would be to watch for any continuation lower, as we might find balance between this areas until Jolts/FOMC tomorrow but if we do break it and continue we have 3780.50-3776.75 Key Level 3764.75-3760.50 and from there we would watch T2 and Previous Days Lows around 3747.50-3744.75 for any continuation lower. *** Level To Watch: 3853.25-3847.25 // 3839-3835.50 // 3809.50-3805.25 // 3791.75-3787.75 // 3764.75-3760.50 // 3747.50-3744.75
CME_MINI:ES1!
by HollowMn
Double Excess Phase Peak In Bitcoin - Seeking A BottomBack in 2021, I warned of an Excess Phase Peak pattern that may setup in Bitcoin. What I didn't see happening was a DOUBLE Excess Phase Peak pattern setting up. This DOUBLE Excess Phase Peak pattern suggests the $30k to $34k price level in Bitcoin became extended critical support as price continued to navigate through the 5 Excess Phase Peak triggers. Because price has recently broken below the $30k to $34k critical support, the current price phase is a downward slide while price attempt to find an ultimate bottom (a true bottom). My expectations are that the $9500 level is where Bitcoin will ultimately find a bottom. Time will tell. Ultimately, the US/Global markets may follow a similar pattern as we are seeing a global revaluation take place. Follow my research.
BITSTAMP:BTCUSDShort
by BradMatheny
#ES 07.05.22 Daily Overview with Levels to WatchFriday with held inside previous days range as we thought we might since it was a lower volume day before the three day weekend. In Globex we continued our Friday strength and last night were able to drive above Previous Day (Friday) High and hit next Key Level of 3853.25-3847.25 where we found sellers, we spent time over the high selling inventory and once we did that we had more supply above and failed back inside previous range. After look above the high and fail we can see the Lows as targets for today and depending if we hold down there or not maybe a continuation lower. --- On The Downside: Holding below 3809.50-3805.25 is continued sign of weakness and can give a test of Previous day Low and T+2 Low, we are currently already coming down so levels to watch are 3780.50-3776.75 Key Level of 3764.75-3760.50 where we can see some support but if that breaks we have Previous Day Low and T+2 Low area around our 3747.50-3744.75 level to watch for continuation but below that is 3728.75-3725.25 and next Key Level of 3714.75-3709.75 Where we can also see support unless going down on good volume and get right through it then can watch for further continuation. --- On The Upside: Testing and Holding Previous Day Low/ T+2 Low area can give us a move back over 3764.75-3760.50, 3780.50-3776.75, 3791.75-3787.75. *** Levels to Watch: 3809.50-3805.25 // 3767.75-3760.50 // 3747.50-3744.75 // 3714.75-3709.75
CME_MINI:ES1!
by HollowMn