Daily analysis & day trading setups - SPX500 SPX S&P500 20220824Happy Midweek, Happy Wednesday,
Macro EU DE 10y Bond Auction, US Durable Goods Order, Nondefense Capital Goods Orders, Pending Home Sales
Buy
Break: 4 125, 145, 160, 175
Reversal: 4 115, 100, 085, 060, 045
Sell
Break: 4 118, 106, 086, 062
Reversal: 4 152, 170, 187, 211, 243
I regularly publish my daily analysis & trading plan for day trading setups. The links are here:
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Green Goblin levels are here >>>
Fibonacci Confluence levels are here >>>
Es_f
ES has the same very visual bear flagI want to point out this bear flag, both on the ES and the NQ, perfect fib alignment into 12703-20 zone.
Tomorrow is a panic cycle day, will it be a gap down and reversal or we just break down?
My timing for the low is still the 25th and possibly 29th
I like 4069-80 zone hit and hold, failure to hold it will get us down to 3930-50 zone before it's over.
ES gapped down as expected, must hold levels for tomorrowMust hold level for tomorrow is 4172-90.
We must penetrate 4200 or 11th low to mark the temp (if not maj) high on Aug 16th
Ideal target is at 4045-60ES on this move lower and the bottom timing is on 25-26th of Aug.
Rally after into the 2nd of Sep high!
I dont want to be long going into the Labour Day weekend; market, historically, tops around the Labour Weekend.
SPX next to update with detailed notes to those who are on my email list. Will update that chart tomorrow am here
SPX Choppy Friday :: Be PreparedBased on price action, it appears that SPX in a ABC (Zig-Zag) pattern. Ratios are shown. I am looking to take short positions around 4300-4308 and looking for 4225 tomorrow in 5 legs.
This idea is invalidated > 4310 and implies more of a continuation of the ending diagonal overall.
Daily analysis and day trading setups on SPX SPX500USD 20220816This is the first daily analysis and day trading plan for SPX. I am already publishing NASDAQ & DAX daily trading plans here >>
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Line in the sand for SPX is 4280 but 4300 is too close so it is more like a zone of 20 points which is quite evident. The hourly bull flag is still in tact as long as Demand Zone 1 holds.
Macro US Building Permits, Housing Starts, CAD CPI
Buy
Break: 4295, 4313, 4327, 4347
Reversal: 4279, 4262, 4253, 4240, 4216
Sell
Break: 4281, 4285, 4254, 4243
Reversal: 4316, 4330, 4350, 4374
Green Goblin levels are here >>>
Fibonacci Confluence levels are here >>>
$ES - What to do now?$ES - What to do now?
This weekend, I present you many ideas in various assets and here's one chart of $ES is last and its important chart I am keeping an eye on for LT positioning.
We've had great bullish momentum due to 'we are at neutral rates', CPI steady - For now and all data is excelling perfectly this week we do have FOMC minutes and as have US Retail sales. The key areas I am keeping in mind when it comes to fundamentals is the factoring in credit cards, has been escalating further and real estate is in trouble due to obviously high rates. There are many other bearish fundamental factors but then we have the bullish momentum side technically - ES is bullish and the fundamentals less rate hikes of hights 75 is less anticipated and further slow down leading DXY to pull back and ES, RYT, NQ & even looking at QQQ to excel further and this could be the bottom of 3700 areas for ES.
Technically - we are a trendline resistance which comes at the levels of: 4300-4200 areas. A key pull back towards areas of support of: 4180, 4000 & 3900. Are the areas I am keeping an eye on.
TJ
ES AHs updateES broke the uptrend small channel off am lows, good sign there. Its also jumped out its upper bull trend channel, must watch for possible fake out. If it means business for the bulls, I will trade the re-test of the trendline in am.
If you look at the chart, you can see that we hit 1.618 to the penny and the price is hovering right at the extension zone. I say it's a very important place to continue or reject, it seems we hit the wall here imo.
Im swing short here and have no stops at the moment, will be watching for the breakout to hold or fail
Bear market over? The structure shift we will need to see.We can observe the weekly trend in MES which mirrors SPX and all SPX futures. Following consecutive lower lows and lower highs, we have broken the prior swing high to create a higher high. Equal highs and the weekly fair value gap above act as a draw on liquidity. Weekly fair value gap below also acts as a draw on liquidity.
Retest and ‘double bottom’ in weekly demand would confirm a higher low following this higher high. Until proven otherwise, this is still a corrective move in a downtrend on higher timeframes.
#ES_F Major Inflection Point !Wow what a rally - from 3639 to now 4155!!!
Question is :
was this just a bear market rally and are we going to see another leg down....
Or is this a regime change and the start of another bull run to 6000 ?!
Although I have completely no idea :) , I do know where we are at now is a major indicator and inflection point IMO of what's to come for the remainder of 2022 for 2 major reasons.
1) MAJOR trendline that stems from 2018 - present being tested (white line) which price has responded to throughout 2020 and 2021 AND
2) 30 WEEKLY MA at 4200 which is a very important Technical inflection point often used to identify stocks' phases by Stan Weinstein.
A breakout above with continuation should trigger large inflows while any rejection or signs of weakness will have people running for the exits.
Very exciting next couple weeks! Keep in mind JPM has a massive collar on 4340C/3905P/3290P for SEP as well... and they usually don't lose (although they surely can rollll ) ;0
Cheers
$SPY Mr. Market update and possible inflection pointMr. Market has had a nice rally from sub 400 to now trading 410 zone and right at the daily 100MA
Could be a major inflection point as we head into next week and a lot of supply overhead now on what is basically a pump from Apple AMZN and a few other earnings as well as the result of net short option positioning , and lack of sellers "in the hole" .
If you believe another major leg down is imminent, August - Sept seems likely as we now have had a decent bear market rally to accompany the thesis.
If you believe we go higher, look for some nice consolidation now and even retracement before starting the next leg up
Either way, I'd be careful adding longs here as the next weeks most likely involve downside or consolidation as this recent move up is digested.
IMO it's low probability of going straight up higher, but not out of the question if we get major news on - Ukraine war, etc.
Personally I've closed most my longs for decent / good profit and starting building shorts with mostly cash position right now. My lean is short / no trend here.
Cheers : )
QQQ Nice breakoutTook QQQ 311C for tomorrow as discussed in yesterdays post. With AAPL AMZN after hours reaction, these calls gonna open up 300% tomorrow. Also took AMZN 130C for ER. i will be done at the open.
There is going to be a lot of FOMO tomorrow in the markets. Make sure u sell into strength tomorrow. Bears might throw in the towel after these ER reactions and probably bulls who ever sidelined are going to chase as well. So better to take profits and wait for a pullback.
QQQ near swing highsRight at last swing highs. SPY and IWM are already above these highs. Closed above these highs. QQQ right on it. Double top for now but Watch it tomorrow for either a confirmation of double top and pullback or a breakout over 308.55. We have AAPL AMZN reporting after hours tomorrow.
We are right in the middle of congestion zone shown in the highlighted area. Generally whenever we enter into the congestion zone, there is a 80% chance we go to the other end of congestion zone. In this case around 312 - 314.60.
ES into the Maj Resistance end 61.8 retracementHaving a connection in Toronto, have time to update.
Im short ES here from 82 and 87.5
We are right into the 61.8 retracement as well as the Maj trednline off 2009 lows (red line)
Min target is 3914 but should test lower into the 3900 zone next imo.
Ideally we test my 3875 zone and move back up for lower high or the ideal high to 4033-34 and even 4075-90
RBLX AccumulationGood accumulation volume on RBLX. Going sideways after the initial break but looks good for next leg if ES can break 3950 and hold above it.
these bas formations after a good 70% drawdown from ATH’s looks really interesting. This is how stage 1 base breakouts happen for next bull run. Can easily see 47-50 if market holds.