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#ES 06.22.22 Daily Plan with Levels Was expecting this retracement yesterday but we had too many people short from Thursday/Friday and structure yday showed early that we will not come down for now when we held the Gap area pre market, drove away from it at the open and got over the Globex inventory. Failure to extend over 3780.50-3776.75 and reach next stops around 3790 area was my MGI that this buying is not as strong and we are most likely selling our position from below here and once shorts are filled and we get under Key Level at 3764.75-3760.50 then we could find ourselves back at T+2 High area and the beginning of Sunday Globex move, I was hoping we will do that closer to RTH so I can trade it but missed the trade last night. Today we currently looked below our Key Level of 3714.75-3709.75 which is also Friday high/T+2 High area, we have more supply now trapped over 3747.50-3444.75 which might give us a push we need to take out the lows from Thursday/Friday. -- On The Downside: Holding under 3728.75-3725.25 will be a sign of weakness for us today as that is the GAP area we technically never filled in RTH, getting under our Key level of 3714.75-3709.75 and accepting will be our downside confirm which could give us tests of 3698.50-3695.50, 3686.75-3683.75, next Key Support at 3671.75-3665.75 and if that goes we can continue lower towards the lows from Last week and our next levels to watch will be 3655.25- 3650.75, 3638.25-3634.25 and next Key Support 3619.50-3613.25 if we do get that low then those areas can be a good location for a bounce. -- On The Upside: Holding above T+2/Friday high and our Key Level of 3714.75-3709.75 is a sign of stability, if we fail to get under and accept then that can give us a test of 3728.75-3725.25 area which would be our gap fill and from there we need to monitor continuation, could get to 3741.50-3744.75 and Key Resistance at 3764.75-3760.50 but we have supply trapped from yesterday there, will be cautious on the upside. *** Key Levels to Watch: 3728.75-3725.25 // 3714.75-3709.75 // 3671.75-3665.75 // 3638.25-3634.25
CME_MINI:ES1!
by HollowMn
#ES 06.21.22 Daily Plan with LevelsSunday/Monday Globex we keep marking up and selling our product, we got into the area I put on watch yesterday and this is what I want to see if we will hold and accept or did we sell our product from below and will come back down to look for buyers lower. So far Globex inventory 100% long from Friday Close, we now have people trapped between our 3728 and 3747 area and are back in the Gap location, Gap is not considered filled until we do it RTH so here are the two scenarios I will be looking at. -- On The Upside: Holding above our Key Support of 3714.75-3709.75 is a sign of strength in RTH and can give us a test of this Gap fill area at 3728.75-3725.25 ( if we get under it before RTH and hold support ) and if we take out that area and hold above then upper levels are 3447.50-3444.75 and next Key Resistance at 3764.75-3760.50, Gap area and Key Support will be key levels to hold for that to happen. If we do hold those and are going up on big volume then can see areas tested above Key Resistance as well. -- On the Downside: Getting under this Gap area and our level of 3728.75-2725.25 would be our first sign of weakness, we have Key Support at 3714.75-3709.75 which lines up with our Friday High and T+2 High if we are able to break that and accept back inside Friday range then we can see the lower levels tested at 3698.50-3695.50, 3686.75-3683.75, next Key Support at 3671.75-3665.75 and if that goes then we have lower levels and Friday low to test which would be 3655.25-3650.75, 3638.25-3634.25 and next Key Support at 3619.50-3613.25 IF we are going down on big volume then can expect that support to be broken and extended a bit lower as well. *** Key areas to watch 3728.75-3725.25 - 3714.75-3709.75
CME_MINI:ES1!
by HollowMn
#ES_F Levels of resistance going into Q2 closeAnother ugly quarter so far with US Equities officially going into a bear market, an abundance of bearish sentiment, and talks of recession. Price is king and with the nice downward channel it looks like we may get a relief rally this week (possibly into next as well) given : - Reversion to the mean with price now well beneath the 30 day moving average - RSI near oversold on the daily - Bottom MACD curl - Quarter end window dressing - Opex behind us Until the regime changes it's a STFR (short the .. rip) trading plan . I'm trading around a core Bear Risk Reversal position with DEC opex in solid names and some China (mostly green with some slightly underwater after last week). Hedged with JUL QQQ put debit spread in case we open this week with a nasty leg down although R/R favors near term upside IMO. Resistance levels charted but my eyes will focused on how price reacts at the 3925 zone (obviously assuming we get there) as I will take some long profit and start legging into shorts here. Stay Liquid Friends Cheers
CME_MINI:ES1!Long
by FriscoTrades
#ES1! Daily Trade Plan with Levels 06.17.22Yday we got our downside move to play out, we found buyers below our Key Level of 3671.75-3665.75 and got a push above it, in Globex so far we tested the level and were unable to break it which meant we are out of supply for time being and rotation back towards the upper levels. Currently Globex inventory is 100% long from our close, we are inside ydays range and just hanging out here at the High of yday and our current Key Resistance of 3714.75-3709.75. Today is Friday, we had eventful week and options expire today so it will be very tricky to trade, Fridays are for protecting capital made during the week and not get aggressive for me. Previous day high and T+2 Low will be important resistance areas for me today in order to get any continuation higher we would need to accept in T+2 that would tell us we have no margin calls or outside selling for now. If we fail to do that and start coming down then we can always test Previous day Low and lower levels if order flow permits. For now we have support over Key Resistance and shorts trapped below us from yday who will be the buyers, might see a balanced day as well. -- On the Upside continuing to hold over 3686.75-3683.75 and 3698.50-3695.50 is a sign of strength but we are right under Key Resistance for me I would like to see us take that out and show us that it will hold in order to get continuation higher and next Key area to watch for continuation is 3728.75-3725.25 which would be our T+2 low for today, if both of those get taken out then we could see a trip back up to 3747.50-3444.75 and possibly next Key Resistance at 3764.75-3760.50 and maybe even 3780.50-3776.75 area which would be our T+2 Half Back. -- On the Downside if we fail to get over Key Resistance and hold above then we have a lot of supply built up here in Globex, if we fail and start coming down we have 3698.50-3695.50 and 3686.75-3673.75 where we will want to monitor for breaks and continuation in order to get further downside, Key Support is at 3671.75-3665.75 if we do find ourselves back under it then lower levels and Prev day low is in reach at 3655.25-3650.75, 3638.25-3634.25 and next Key Support at 3619.50-3613.25 ** Manage expectations today and get ready for it to be choppy unless we get a clear move out.
CME_MINI:ES1!
by HollowMn
#ES Futures 06.15.22 Daily Plan with LevelsFED Day! What will the market give us today? Yday we were not able to hold our Key Support of 3764.75-3760.50 as we expected because we were under T+2 low and had people trapped from Globex session above, we were able to get below and accept in lower range and we got the test of lower levels down to our next Key Support at 3714.75-3709.75 and as mentioned we needed extra juice to get through that level and since it was almost towards the end of the day when we got there I did not expect much continuation, I did not expect that good of response from there right away either so I didnt trade it but we got what we got. I spent my day shorting from 65-60 area and had myself a great day. Today can be very tricky to trade as all FED days are because lots of eyes are watching and waiting, currently Globex inventory is 100% long from our close, we are inside T+2 range and seems like cleaning out sellers from above our 3764.75-3760.50 level. We have Retail Sales 8:30 and FOMC starting at 2, Key today is to manage expectations and not expect big moves until they prove themselves. - Supports Today: 3747.50-3744.75 is our PM Support and the area of Yday close which will be important and current Key Level at 3764.75-3760.50 as well as T+2 low - Resistance Today: 3780.50-3776.75 is our current PM Resistance then 3791.75-3787.75 and our Key Level of 3809.50-3805.25 also our T+2 high area for today (from RTH not including Globex) is right at our 3825.50-3820.25 level. > On The Upside continuing to hold above PM Support is a sign of strength, our position is currently under us below 3764.75-3760.50 level which if holds today can give us a test of higher levels at 3780.50-3776.75, 3791.75-3787.75 if we get through those I will be watching next Key Resistance at 3809.50-3805.25 which is Prev Day Globex high area, watching for us to take it and hold or take it and come back in or fail to take. We should still have sellers in the market and I do see us testing the lower Key levels again at some point, will it be today or not we will have to see but I am managing my expectations to the upside until those levels start getting taken out and we hold over. > On The Downside getting back under 3764.75-3760.50 will be our first signs of weakness and breaking our PM support will be a better downside confirm for me, if this happens im looking for a test of 3728.75-3725.25, Key Support at 3714.75-3709.75 and possibly a break of that to 3698.50-3695.50, 3686.75-3683.75 and possibly next Key Support at 3671.75-3665.75 to be tested. As Mentioned Fed days are tricky and we can even see both scenarios play out with them running it up to sell their position from below and then dropping the bid or going lower first trapping more people short to give them a push higher. Have to be patient and watch levels for breaks and continuation.
CME_MINI:ES1!
by HollowMn
#ES Futures Daily Overview with Levels to Watch 06.14.22Yday we saw Key Support area of 3764.75-3760.50 hold on the first test, we did make another attempt at it before close and were able to reach next level down so we found acceptance in that lower range. At the close wholesale took in the supply under 3764.75 and used Globex to drive it up and sell higher, Globex inventory was mostly long all night until we found sellers at our Key Resistance of 3809.50-3805.25 and now we corrected it back to the close. Currently we are holding this 3764.75-3760.50 Key Support area and waiting for PPI release at 8:30. Looks like we are again set to open today under T+2 Low which is all the way back at 3896 so I would be very surprised if we dont see more selling today and at least test the lower levels down to 3714.75-3709.75 and maybe lower if we have enough sell volume. We had two days of big moves so set ups might require patients today. - On The Upside continuing to hold this support at 3764.75-3760.50 can give us another push and test of 3780.50-3776.75 and maybe 3791.75-3787.75 those will be the areas to watch for continuation higher and of course to get any real move out towards that gap we would need to see us get through Key Resistance of 3809.50-3805.25. - On The Downside we now have globex inventory built up in this 3809.50-3760.50 range and if we do break below and accept in the lower range then our levels to the downside are 3741.50-3744.75, 3728.75-3725.25 and next Key Support at 3714.75-3709.75. If we have enough juice today we can see us take that and if we do then we will watch lower areas for response at 3698.50-3695.50, 3686.75-3683.75 are the areas we can see response and next Key Support at 3671.75-3665.75.
CME_MINI:ES1!
by HollowMn
1
#ES Futures Day Trading Overview and Levels to Watch 06.13.22Last night before the Globex open I posted weekly overview with important levels to watch and that most likely we will get more downside being we are under the Supply and buyers in the area where we closed Friday might not be as responsive this time around. 3880-72 was our area to watch to the downside, Globex opened on a gap down and right in that area which gave us a sell to the downside pretty much all night with few pull backs. Looks like so far this morning we found some support at 3811-3804.50 level, our inventory is currently 100% short from Friday close which means there is 60-70% chance we might get some correction to it at the open, how much we will have to see unless we correct before and at the open continue lower, holding that 3811-3804.50 level can give us a test of 3821.25, 3835.50 and possibly 3853.25-3847.25 which will be our Key area to watch if we are to get any more upside from there. On the downside if we fail to get through 3821.25 - 3835.50 or we correct to those levels and come back down to break 3811-3804.05 then we will be looking at lower levels at 3791.50-3776.75 and possibly 3764.75-3758.5 which will be lower Key Support we would need to break to see any continuation lower, if we are going down on big volume and breaking through levels then we can see even lower areas tested, I wanted to see the mid point of the daily range tested this week around 3731-3676.50 but I did not think we might get close to there in Globex so we might get continuation in RTH or we might spend the day cleaning the Globex move and get ready for bigger market moving events this week. If 3764.75-3758.25 breaks we have 3745, 3728 and 3714.75-3709.75 as next Key Support. Careful with longs, we will get pull backs and corrections but we have a lot of people upside down and most likely will see more margin call selling today.
CME_MINI:ES1!
by HollowMn
1
#ES Futures 06.09.22 Daily Overview and Levels to WatchYesterday played out pretty much as first expected, was able to actually call the high and the low within a few points as mentioned I thought we might stay in tighter range between 4157 and our 4103-4099.75 level and we did. Today Globex attempted to break out of our Key Resistance at 4143.75-4137.50 and failed which trapped a lot of people, with that fail I will be looking for us to test the opposite side of this range and our Key Support at 4084.50-4077.25 I believe we should have enough supply to take it out but then we have to monitor how much extension we get and if we accept or come back in. On the downside if we get under 4103.25-4099.75 we can see Key Support at 4084.50-4077.25 and lower levels that I would like to see hold are 4061.50-4056.50 and especially 4046-4042.25, ideally if we will have a fail and come back in we will not break both of those but if we do we have next Key Support at 4030.75-4025.25 to keep in mind. On the upside if we again cant take Key Support which is also our T+2 low for the day then we can see rotation back up or what I will be watching for is a flush of that area and see if we can find buyers at lower levels that will bring us back into this range and that would confirm for me that most likely we are out of supply and can see higher levels of 4103.25-4099.75, 4123.75-4119.25 and Key Resistance at 4143.75-4137.50 and if that does happen today or tomorrow then we can see a run from the Key Resistance up to the next one at 4220. Have to manage expectations as we are still in tight range but today we already seen the signs of it breaking.
CME_MINI:ES1!
by HollowMn
#ES Futures 06.08.22 Daily Overview with Levels to WatchYday I was short biased and thought we will have enough supply to flush Key Support at 4084.50-4077.25 but I did mention that if we do no break support and reach next level down then we can see a rotation back to 4103.25-4099.75 and 4123.75-4119.25, because of the short bias I did not think we will get back to Key Resistance at 4143.75-4137.50 and extend to next level up but I have been telling myself that we are in this 4170-4070 range since last week and will be that way until we see clear moves out with continuation. So far we are tightening up the range/coiling up looks like for next move out, we are getting lower highs and higher lows with tighter ranges since 27th which tells me we are just spending time cleaning up still and filling orders. Today we have our inventory long above our Key Resistance of 4143.75-4137.50 but also short from yesterdays close. Tricky spot here, we can see another day of tighter range if we do it should be between 4157 area below our 4168-4162.25 level and around our 4103.75-4099.75 area maybe 4090ish. Of course we watch level by level for order flow at those levels to see if we have enough to break and keep going or not so have to keep all possibilities open. On the upside holding above 4143.75-4137.50 can give us 4168-4162.25 that is our T+2 high and if we break it and extend then can see more buy ins and upper levels are 4191-4185.50 and next Key Resistance at 4020-4214.75 but T+2 high is important reference that must break in order to see continuation up. On the downside if we get under 4143.75-4137.50 then we can see 4123.75-4119.25 and 4103.25-4099.75 which is also our T+2 Low area that we will need to see break in order to get a chance at Key Support of 4084.50-4077.25 and lower levels, with T+2 High and T+2 Low being at the very spots we think that we might stall and tighten is another reason I think we might have a smaller range day again and tighten up more. Of any of those references break with volume then its a good sign for continuation because we have a week worth of inventory built up already, but might not happen until Thursday/Friday as we said we don't have any market moving events till then. Days like last few weeks its very important to not over trade and manage expectations in the trade.
CME_MINI:ES1!
by HollowMn
#ES Futures 06.07.22 Overview and Levels to WatchYday we tried to extend out of our Key Resistance at 4143.75-4137.50 and as mentioned pre market holding above that level should give us a test of 4168-4162.25 BUT reaching T+2 high at 4179 was the what we were looking at for continuation higher which we failed to do and came back in under our Key Resistance which was the first sign of weakness, we did sell off from Key Resistance but we only had enough supply to reach and break 4123.75-4119.25 level and inability to get to 4103.25-4099.75 told me that we will not test the lows at that time. For Globex I was looking to see if we can down in this area and get under T+2 low at 4096 and we did which tells me we have supply and we are under T+2 low so we can expect some more selling, how much is the question. Today if we get under Key Support at 4084.50-4077.25 then that can give us a test of lower levels, a lot of people will be looking for a big break down from here but I will be cautious because the position is still below us and we are still inside the range from the 27th that is sign of strength to me so I will be monitoring lower levels for response if we do break support and head lower, on the downside we have 4061.50-4056.50 and 4046-4042.25 where I do want to see us hold ideally, if going down big volume then can also reach next Key Support at 4030.75-4025.25. So far market is still in balance in our 4170-4160 range but we should have enough supply built up to flush the Key Support and see how much comes out. On the upside if we do not break Key Support and reach next level down at 4061.50-4056.50 then we can see a rotation back to 4103.25-4099.75 and 4123.75-4119.25 where we should see sell response or if we break support and come back in with volume. As stated in Sunday weekly overview I would like us to flush this 4084.50-4077.25 level and then come back into this range for better confirm, will it all happen today or happen at all we will have to see in RTH. 4143.75-4137.50 has been my Key Resistance and 4084.50-4077.25 Key Support for a week now and it will stay so until we break and reach next Key Levels.
CME_MINI:ES1!
by HollowMn
#ES Futures 06.06.22 Overview and Levels to Watch for the DayFriday we got a close in the middle of our 4143-4077 range, Globex failed to continue lower and break 4103.25-4099.75 level and reach Key Support at 4084.50-4077.25 instead we got a push over our Key Resistance at 4143.75-4137.50. Question today is do we hold above our Key Resistance and get continuation higher or do we come back in? We are currently inside our T+2 Range and inventory is long from Fridays Close, do we see a correction to the inventory or will this move hold and keep going. I am more on the cautious side today but failure to reach lower levels is a sign of strength and if we did clean out all the sellers above then could see a continuation today. On the upside holding above Key Resistance of 4143.75-4137.50 could give us a test of 4168-4162.25 then will be watching if we can reach T+2 high at 4179 if that goes and we get through 4191-4185.50 then we can see our next Key Resistance tested at 4220-4214.75 and maybe levels above but T+2 High area will be the tell if we get there. On the Downside getting back under 4143.75-4137.50 is our first sign of weakness and can give us a test of 4123.75-4119.25, 4103.25-4099.75 and always possible to see a run at T+2 low and key Support area of 4084.50-4077.25. Overall still seeing indecision and market doesn't feel clean for a move out yet but keeping it open and just monitoring for continuation at the levels to see if we accept or not.
CME_MINI:ES1!
by HollowMn
#ES Futures Review for the week 06.05.22Last Tuesday I was doing a review and saw that Friday the 27th we broke into a balance where we still had plenty of supply over 4143.75 and our position is below 4084.50 which told me that we will most likely spend some time around here to consolidate before we can confirm direction for the next move, Tuesdays close confirmed that more and I gave myself a range we could possibly stay within which was 4170-4060 so we can clean things up and get ready for the next move, especially with it being the beginning of a new month I was looking for the range to tighten up which we started to do, we made an attempt to get out of 4170 Thursday but that move was sold and we went back towards the smaller position that was between 4100-4077, failure to reach 4077 for now and filling orders below it is a sign of strength for my MGI, it tells me that so far its just inventory moving and not LTF sellers. It takes time after large moves to clean things up, take care of business and confirm next move. We don't really have any market moving events until Thursday/Friday so I will be cautious in the beginning of the week because we are still closing within range and this is where it can tighten more or attempt stop runs before it chooses direction. This week I want to see if we attempt a break down under 4084-77 and come back in without reaching the next Key Support around 4030-25 to trade it from 4084 back up to 4137-43 and possible move higher to 4220-4214+ area or failure to take out 4084-77 and get back over 4143 to make a run at 4220-4214+. This week the only shorting locations I am interested in is if we get back to 4143-37 area without extending from it or if we lose 4046-42 and clear break and continuation on 4030-25.
CME_MINI:ES1!
by HollowMn
#ES Futures 06.03.22 Overview and Levels to WatchYday we opened up right under T+2 and got some selling pressure right into the Key Support at 4084.50-4077.25, support held and we saw a rotation back towards the Key Resistance at 4143.75-4137.50 and we were able to break out and hold above it for continuation move to higher levels. In Globex so far we failed at our 4191-4185.50 level and failed to extend and reach the next Key Resistance at 4220-4214.75 and now came back to the previous range resistance and back into T+2 range for today. Question today is do we accept in this range and get another attempt at next Key Resistance or did we sell all the inventory from below in that run up and will come back into previous range to find buyers. On the upside holding above 4143.75-4137.50 is a sign of strength and can give us another test of 4168-4162.25, 4191-4185.50 and next Key Resistance area of 4220-4214.75 and if enough buying comes in the higher levels up to 4234.75-4229.25, 4252.50-4247.50 But have to show signs of strength and get back over T+2 high which is 4165 area. On the downside holding below T+2 high and if we get back under 4143.75-4137.50 then we have some single prints to fill and can test T+2 half back, if enough selling pressure can even bring us down all the way back to Key Support, levels to watch for buyers on the downside are 4123.75-4119.25, 4103.25-4099.75 and Key Support that we had for few days now is 4084.50-4077.25, ideally for us to see a move higher today we dont want it getting under 4123.75-4119.25 but have to give it time and show which way it wants to go.
CME_MINI:ES1!
by HollowMn