Es_f
#ES_F 2.18 Overview and Levels to WatchYesterday our downside scenario played out perfectly, what can we expect today? In the Globex session inventory got too short and we got a nice squeeze up to our 4405 level but could not break and and reach our Key level at 4424.50-4418.75 and that was our sign of weakness and that we have more inventory above us. This morning we finally broke PM support and got under our Key Support at 4378.50-4374.75. On the downside if we stay below our Key Support then that leaves us open for a test of 4362.75-4359.50, 4349.50-4345.25 and next Key Support at 4327.25-4321.50, If that gets taken out and we take out 4310-4307.25 we can see more downside to 4291.50-4286.75 and 4272-4265. To get upside we need to get back over 4378.50-4374.75 and then we can test higher levels of 4392.25-4389.75, 4405.25-4403 and 4424.50-4418.75 but right now we have inventory above and more likely be looking for the downside scenario to play out again. Trade safe!
#ES Futures Thesis Trade RewievOne example of how my thesis played out today. In the morning I posted for the downside scenario for today we had - all this inventory between 4440-4480 that if gets no upside then we can see it start selling out and level we are watching are 4445-4437.75 as our PM Support and 4424.50-4418.75 as our Key Intraday Support, breaking PM support is first sign of weakness and getting under the Key support leaves the doors open for 4405.25-4403, 4392.25-4389.75 and 4378.50-4374.75 as our next level where we should see good support unless we break that and 4362.75-4345.25 level then we can see more downside. Trade entry was when we failed to get back in previous value with a stop right above and take profits at each level lower until we found buyers at our next big support.
#ES_F 2.17.22 Overview and Levels to watchWe spent two days in this value area with two failed break outs and one failed breakdown. We are bound to make a move out so lets see where can we head if we do. Today we have 4465.25-4460.25 as PM Resistance and 4479.75-4475 as our Key Intraday Resistance that we need to see break and hold to get upside into 4490-4487.25, 4497.25-4494.75, 4508.75-4505.50 and 4524.25-4519 as our next big area of resistance. On the downside we do have all this inventory between 4440-4480 that if gets no upside then we can see it start selling out and level we are watching are 4445-4437.75 as our PM Support and 4424.50-4418.75 as our Key Intraday Support, breaking PM support is first sign of weakness and getting under the Key support leaves the doors open for 4405.25-4403, 4392.25-4389.75 and 4378.50-4374.75 as our next level where we should see good support unless we break that and 4362.75-4345.25 level then we can see more downside into 4349.50-4345.25 and our bigger support and gap fill at 4327.25-4321.50 area.
#ES_F 2.16.22 Overview and Levels to watchDid we even move since Yesterday morning?? Market is awaiting direction, we have Retail Sales 8:30am and FOMC Minutes at 2PM. So far Globex failed at our 4479.75-4475 level and we came back in yesterdays range and we wait and see where will it take us. Failing to extend is our first sign of weakness today, on the upside we have 4479.75-4475 as our Key Intraday Resistance, we need to get through that and hold in order to see range extension to 4490-4487.25, 4497.25-4494.75, 4508.75-4505.50 and our next bigger area of resistance at 4524.25-4519. On the downside if we fail to extend higher, then we have 4447.25-4445 as our PM support, if we get under that leaves door open for 4437.75-4432.50 and our Key Intraday Support at 4424.50-4418.75. If our Key support gets taken out we can see a nice move down to 4405-25-4403, 4392.25-4389.75 and 4378.50-4374.75 which is our next bigger area of support but if going down on big volume can get taken out and if we do our levels lower are 4362.75-4359.50, 4349.50-4345.25 and 4327.25-4321.50. Lets see what they have in store for us today and where will the market head.
#ES_F 2.15.22 Overview and Levels to watchIn Globex we had a break out from Mondays Value and we are currently in our T+2 Range which is Friday. Today during RTH we will want to monitor and see if we will get a continuation and test the high of settlement, fail and come back in or if we found our next temporary balance that we need to fill in before next move. Globex is in double distribution and here are the levels I will be watching today. On the Upside we have 4465.25-4460.25 as our PM resistance and 4479.75-4475 as our KEY Intraday Resistance, if broken and we can build value over we can see 4490-4487.25, 4497.25-4494.75, 4508.75-4505.50 and bigger area of resistance and Friday High at 4524.25-4519. On the downside we have 4437.75-4432.50 as our upper distribution support and our Key Intraday Support at 4424.50-4418.75. Holding under the distribution support will be our first sign of weakness and if we break and hold under the Key Support then we can see a test of 4405.25-4403, 4392.25-4389.75 and bigger area of support at 4378.50-4374.75. Another option I will be looking at is after this big move in globex we need to digest and can stay between 4424-4480 before it makes next move.
ES_F: More Pain before the Spring ReliefES_F making a case for 4380 and 4320 this upcoming week. Watch our video for levels!
#ES_F 2.11.22 Overview and Levels to watchYesterday we got another rejection from our Key area and with no further upside inventory sold off. Today we have Globex inventory short and set to open under T+2. We have 4497.25-4494.75 as our PM Resistance and 4479.75-4475 as our PM Support. On the downside holding below PM Support leaves the doors open for moves lower to 4465.25-4460.25, 4447.25-4445, We have single prints to fill around the 4437.75-4432.50 level and our bigger area of support at 4424.50-4418.75 and of course if we have a lot of inventory can see even lower. On the upside if we get over and build over PM Resistance we can then test the upper levels of 4508.75-4505.50, 4524.25-4519 and 4536.75-4532.50 as our upper key levels. It might take some time to clean things up after yesterday but lets see what they have for us.
#ES_F 2.10.22 Overview and Levels to watchMarket is waiting to make a move, could we see it today after the morning releases? We have been knocking on key resistance area since yesterday, the questions is will we break through and keep going or run out of buyers and go back down. Today we have 4570-4562.50 as our PM Support being under there would give us first sign of weakness and below we have 4551.25-4548.75 as minor support and 4536.75-4532.50 as our KEY Intraday Support which needs to be broken to see more downside levels which are 4524.25-4519, 4508.75-4505.50 and if going down on big volume can see 4497.25-4487.25, 4479.75-4475, 4465.25-4460.25. On the upside we have 4589.50-4584.75 as our PM Resistance that we need to break and hold over to see upside to 4603.25-4598.75 and our KEY Intraday Resistance at 4623.25-4614.50 that if broken can give us 4636.50-4632.25, 4650.50-4646.25 and 4675.25-4666.25 which is our next big area of resistance. Lets see if we make our move today or keep snoozing.
#ES_F 2.09 Overview and Levels to watchGlobex Inventory is long and we are on the move out of Value. Where are we taking this today? On the downside we have 4536.75-4532.50 as PM support which of broken that's our first sign of weakness and below is KEY Intraday support at 4524.25-4519 which needs to be broken in order to see lower levels which are 4508.75-4505.50, 4497.25-4487.25 and 4479.75-4475. On the Upside holding above PM support is continuation of strength and can see 4570-4562.50 and 4589.50-4584.75 which would be our Key Resistance areas for today for more upside. If we build Value over 4570 and take out 4589.50 can see 4603.25-4598.75, 4623.25-4614.50 and maybe 4636.50-4632.25.
#ES_F 2.08.22 Overview and levels to watchSnooze fest in Globex but that was expected. Are we getting a move today or are we staying in value again. Today we have 4490.25-4487.25 as our PM resistance and 4479.75-4475 as our PM support. Holding below the support is our first sign of weakness and we have 4465.25-4460.25 as our KEY intraday support and if broken we can see 4447.25-4445, 4437.75-4432.50 and maybe 4424.50-4418.75 But we should see buyers along the way at those levels unless we are going down on big volume. On the upside if we get over and hold above PM support then we can see a test of PM resistance and 4494.75-4490, 4508.75-4505.50, 4524.25-4519 and maybe 4536.75-4532.50. I am keeping my expectations low and slow today so lets see what the order flow will bring.
#ES_F 2.07.22 Overview and Levels to WatchQuite Globex after some big moves last few weeks. Today we might have a balanced day on our hands but lets breakdown our possible scenarios. On the upside we have 4508.75-4505.50 as our PM resistance and 4524.25-4519 as our Key Resistance, if we manage to break over and hold then we can see 4536.75-4532.50, 4551.25-4548.75 We expect to see sellers at those areas unless we are going up on big volume and break through them clean and 4570-4562.50 as the next bigger resistance area where sellers should also be active. On the downside we have 4479.75-4475 as our PM support and holding below it are first signs of weakness and can take us to test lower areas at 4465.25-4460.25, 4447.25-4445 and maybe 4437.75-4432.50 which is our Key Intraday support, if broken and we can get under 4424.50-4418.75 then could see more downside. Manage expectations and trading level to level will win the day.
ES_F: Daily Range Set - Tune in for This Weeks Levels!Defined range between 4450 - 4537 until proven otherwise. Try to stay away from buying 4480-4484 as that will be tough to find the direction. STAY VIGILANT TAKE PROFITS!
#ES_F 2.04.22 Overview and levels to watch.Globex inventory is short, we have NFP coming up at 830am and where can we go today? Well all the buying that we had from Jan 28th low was short coverings and bigger players selling their position. We failed to extend into previous daily range for now and now have a few options where we can head. On the downside we have 4465.25-4460.25 as our PM support which is broken will be our first sign of weakness, below we have 4447.25-4445, 4437.75-4432.50 and our KEY Intraday support at 4424.50-4418.75, we should see buyers on the first tests of those areas unless we are going down on big volume and if we are then we have 4405.25-4403, 4392.25-4389.75 and 4378.50-4374.75 as our lower levels. On the upside we have 4490-4487.25 as PM resistance we would need to break and hold above to see tests of 4508.75-4505.50 and our Key Intraday resistance at 4524.25-4519 which we need to break above and hold if we want to see the upside to 4536.75-4532.50, 4551.25-4548.75 and 4570 area. Its Friday on a low volume beginning of the month week with big ranges so anything can happen but manage expectations and don't expect huge moves just trade level to level until we see signs of change.
$ES_F 2.03.22 Overview and Levels to watchOur globex inventory is 100% short, yesterday end of day move wiped out all the buying we had in RTH and trapped supply over 4550 so what can we expect from it today? Its a lower volume week with sellers above 4590 and buyers below 4520 which is why we are getting this chop order from that takes everyone's money, have to be patient to trade this. On the down side we have 4524.25-4519 as our PM support and holding below it would be our first signs of weakness, we have 4508.75-4505.50 as KEY intraday support if broken can see 4497.25-4494.75, 4490-4487.25 and if enough supply can test 4479.75-4475, all those areas might have responsive buyers when we hit them as we have people short who cover when we come down. On the upside if we continue to hold over PM support we have 4536.75-4532.50 as PM resistance and 4551.25-4548.75 as our KEY resistance that need to be broken if we want to see 4570-4562.50, 4589.50-4584.75 and 4603-4598.75. It might be a small range low volume day so have to manage your expectations.
!ES_F 2.02.22 Overview and levels to watchSlow grinding globex action leaves us with inventory 100% long today. What can we see today in RTH? On a bigger time frame we flushed down our inventory over 4620 and now we are almost back to the location of the break down on Jan 18. Question is did we really clean up all that trapped supply in such a short time, have no more supply for sale and clear to go up or will we find a seller today at the levels we did before since not everyone sells at the same time. Our levels to watch for the day are 4570-4562.50 as PM support if we break and hold below that is our first signs of weakness under there we have 4551.25-4548.75, 4536.75-4532.50 and our Key intraday support at 4524.25-4519 which if broken then this whole move was just short covering and we can see more downside. On the upside we have 4589.50-4584.75, 4603.25-4598.75 and our Key resistance at 4623.25-4614.50 we do expect sellers there. We have made some big moves last few weeks and the action has slowed down to a grind so it will be tricky to trade and have to manage expectations. If we do break and hold over our key resistance that would be a bullish confirm and we can see higher levels of 4636.50-4632.25 and 4650.50-4646.25 where we do expect to see sellers.
#ES_F 2.01.22 Overview and levels to watchAfter exciting month end yesterday, what can we see today? Overnight inventory is currently long over the close and over out 4480 level. Today we want to see if we will continue our strength, retest and hold lower levels or find temporary balance? On the down side we have PM support at 4490-4487.25 if we get under and hold, that will be our first sign of weakness. Under we have 4479.75-4475 as our Key support and if broken we can see 4465.25-4460.25, 4447.25-4445, 4437.75-4432.50 and if selling is strong can test 4424.50 area. On the upside, holding above PM support shows strength and can test 4524.25-4519.50 and we can break and hold over that can see 4536.75-4532.50, 4551.25-4548.75 and maybe 4571.75-4563.75 those are the bigger areas to hit on the upside and should see sellers up there. We made some big moves and now waiting to see what this month will bring. Was the buying real or just short covering and we will head lower this month? Lets see what they have for us.
!ES_F 1.31 Overview and levelsOvernight inventory was long and balanced between 4400-4437. Took us all night to be able to get under 4400 which means we have a lot of buyers down there. Today what we want to see if we will continue our strength from Friday and keep going up. Will we test the breakout area at 4480 or will we balance after choppy and volatile week last week. We have 4432-4437 as our Key intraday resistance which if broken can lead us to 4465.25-4460.25, 4475-4479.75 on the upside. On the down side we have PM support around 4405-4400 and if we break and hold under we can see a test of 4392.25-4389.75 and if enough inventory can test 4378.50-4374.75 which is our Key support on the downside, if we break it then the move on Friday was just short covering and we can come back down areas to watch for if we do are 4362-4359, 4350-4345 and 4327-4321. It might be a back and forth day between the Key support and resistance without any big moves. Wait for order flow and inventory to show the way.
E-mini Defined Range Until Proven OtherwiseAs we spoke about last week, ES_F between 4273 and 4330 is our defined range until it isn't. There will be noise in-between, but until we get a daily close below or above those two areas it should be a very healthy area to long/short and make a lot of money with an elevated VIX.
We think we go revisit last weeks lows early in the week, only to bounce again. Once we breakout of 4330 and hold above on a daily close we should head back to 4700.
SPY - Scenario 2 If bulls are able to push above 447.08, I do see upside into 456-458 where we should see bears come back in and take control as price will meet upper channel resistance as well as previous support that broke down which is now new resistance.
SPY - Scenario 1 still Favors the BearsUnless bulls can push above 447.08, bears still in control imo. We have a W4 ascending triangle awaiting confirmation of a break up or down. A break down should take us into 409-416 area where I would be more inclined to BTD for a move into 450's.
A break above would set up our Scenario 2 which has also been posted.
ES_F Mid-Day and Next Week YOU NEED TO SEE THE LEVELS!Looking at 4273 to get tested again on ES_F next week and break to create a macro higher low from the 4200 print earlier this week. Looking at 4220-4250 as a dip buy. Expect February/early March to be a run-up into another swaying normal Spring downtrend. AT members were printing this week!
ES/SPY - Bull and Bear Scenario Today Let price guide you
Can play the upside as long as price remains elevated above 4260. Below 4260 and we likely see a choppy move into lower red box.
GL Today!
