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S&P 500 - How Deep Will This Correction Go?Since the Covid crash, the Stock Market has been on an unstoppable steep upwards trajectory. This carried out through 2020 and the whole 2021. I've never seen the Stock Market climb this high and this short amount of time. With the current state of the economy with rising inflation, food & supply shortages, spending cuts and coming interest rate hikes... I do not believe that we can continue at this pace in 2022 without a deeper correction. We drank the juice and got caught up in the overly bullish mentality. We have to remember the laws of Supply and Demand. Markets never go up at this steep without a steep correction at some point. I'm seeing the 3,500 - 3,800 range (38-50%) as a likely area that this correction may fall to. I could see it falling as low as 3,200 - 3,500 (50-68%) as well. It may fall straight down into these areas or it make take place over the next couple of months but these are the areas I'm watching. I'd be weary of being overly aggressive with continuing to buy at this time. It is possible that many retail investors/traders will get bull trapped. They may take this market up just a little more and then drive it down further. When there's a lot of uncertainty, it's not a terrible idea to just hold your money and until the market has bottoms out before getting aggressive with buying again. And as of now, it is not clear if this is the bottom yet.
SP:SPX
by TraderFromTheNorth
4
ES_F Range Bound for nowWe look range bound on ES_F between 4606 and 4707. They moved the local POC to 4663 and am looking for that number going into RTH tomorrow. Above 4663 in RTH we could go test 4681 and then off to 4700 area. I will be looking to fade 4700 area. If that fails, will look to 4740 again to hold the line for bears. 4740 is the breakout area that would take the market back to ATH and beyond. We most likely stay range bound, but may get lucky for a 50 point move down if 4663 holds and they break this weekends lows of 4638.
CME_MINI:ES1!
by AlphaTradersInc
ES_F ES1! Where do we go into J-Pow and CPI?ES_F ES1! sitting on major support around the 4750 area and has bounced off twice in the past two days. Expecting a balance day tomorrow and Tuesday into J-Pow testimony and then CPI on Wednesday. Careful traders can waiting until CPI to put a play on as the direction and trend of the next quarter into earnings may be obvious. 4650, 4667, 4680, 4689 above are s/r flips. Orderflow shows a good amount of volume and bids around the 4650 are showing that it may hold into J-Pow and CPI. A push up to 4712 would signal a bull trap for me. Local trend is down until further notice going into CPI numbers Wednesday. Fed who once was supporting the mega rich by keeping market afloat, are now backed into a corner with the very same party of people. The first half of the year could see a 42xx print if things keep going this way.
CME_MINI:ES1!
by AlphaTradersInc
ES_F 4800?ES_F looking for a breakout of 4742 this week. The amount of buyers that will come in on a confirmed s/r flip there will blow your mind. Plan for Monday: Chop to pullback at 4680 and max pain at 4667 into Tuesday. Looking to buy and hold as long as we don't close under 4650. 3 historic levels that have been a huge area of interest for both buyers and sellers. Blue is the top of the huge channel we are starting to create (accumulation or distribution?) red is the bottom of the channel. Green is local daily areas of historical s/r. Personally believe we run it up, but any day close under 4667 turns me bear. 4650 confirms that thesis.
CME_MINI:ES1!
by AlphaTradersInc
On Target. Megaphone to Santa Rally. 4800 Before 2022? 📣This a follow-up to my last post. Strong seasonality along with heavy put buying has helped this market drift higher. JPM Hedge Collar drawdown seems less likely. As long as no shock factors happen, I see 4800 by year end. After this strong week, I see some consolidation happening before the next pushes up. First resistance is the ATH, I can see it blowing right past it on its way to 4800. Levels are previous resistance which now serve as support. Some stronger than others. When the market is moving like it is and traders keep thinking "this can't keep going higher". Put buying ends up increasing which causes market makers to buy more to hedge, in essence it adds fuel to the rocket fire. I can see this continuing after a brief cooldown period on Monday. Happy Holidays!
OANDA:SPX500USDLong
by tohsined
This weeks ES Update: THE RIPPER CAME TO RIP As we were on point last week if you followed, you made roughtly 212 points with 2 MAE. Nice job. For this week look for a short term top to form. Simple going into todays open and tomorrows RTH open: Beak above ATH and it runs more. Most likely we will see a pullback of at least 100 points by the end of this week to set up the November rally. I'm expecting an overshoot of the highs either on Monday or Tuesday (4570 area) to then hang around until Tuesday/Mid-Wednesday then we go down down down to reset all you people who use RSI, arts and crafts lines, etc. Drop below Fridays lows is where you see a drop to the 8-Day. Once we lose the 8D we start our descent to the 4450 area where we should see an overshoot to 4437 (remember that old POC we blew threw?)
CME_MINI:ES1!
by AlphaTradersInc
SPX500: Daily trend refuses to turn upThe daily timeframe has yet another short signal here, I've hedged my equities positions with a 1:1 $ESZ2021 short position near the NY closing time. Implications are we get yet another down swing, and a vicious one towards 4161.8 by Oct 25 or sooner, as long as price doesn't cross the 4368.89 level with ease, erasing the decline from the high two days ago. There's palpable fear in the market, and earnings season around the corner might keep investors up at night...The recent upswing in commodities, as shortages and supply chains woe pop left and right is making people nervous, add to these inflationary woes, the rising yields and rising dollar, and we get a perfect storm. I was expecting sell offs to slow down, since we had a strong buying wave, retracing the last liquidity shock by 75% in the $VIX chart, but the latest daily T@M signal here puts that notion in question. The currency market is making shock waves here, which is an unusual and new development, $USDJPY breaking out and rallying very strongly, could be followed up by deleveraging. I'm being cautious and hedging until things are clear again. My individual stock positions have solid charts and a fundamental back drop, so, it isn't worth it to sell them in this case. Let's see if bears get follow through here and the signal target is reached in time. Best of luck, Ivan.
FX:SPX500Short
by IvanLabrie
Stocks - SPX 1M Outlook - Trouble AheadBrief for SPX: - Weakness in price due to Quad Witching ahead of FOMC. Controversy in taper announcement as ECB has done. - Technical weakness in price, as it has fallen out of a rising wedge and as of yet, failed to make a quick recovery to ATHs as usual. Price closed in a DCF, indicating weakness in the dominant cycle. - Fears of real estate market collapse in China, with global implications (there are US counterparties involved). However, it has yet proven to be anything more than an isolated event. Cyclicality: - SPX facing headwinds of seasonal decline. - Expecting DCL in early October, a bit of a rally to a DCH and choppy markets in mid-late October, then a greater selloff into the end of October in the seasonal trough, where an ICL may be made into an end of year rally. Macro Layer: - Inflation expectations continue to decline globally: fred.stlouisfed.org - Yield curve continues to flatten, despite real rates getting a slight reprieve. - Dollar and gold showing risk-off. Debt Ceiling: (Opinion) - Interestingly, October Treasury Note Futures trading at a slight discount to September, or December. This indicates that there is some risk-off on the notes regarding the debt ceiling, but nobody expects the debt ceiling to not be raised. The US government had shut down for 35 days at the end of 2018 due to debt ceiling disagreements, so I think this is a legitimate concern and could be (a largely perception-based) catalyst for a sizable pullback. - If we take a look at 2018's correction, it began with the Sept Quad witching as well. A very similar setup to now, which is of concern: - 3700 is an area of Demand which would correspond to such a pullback, while 4290-4400 is the mid-year Pivot Range which should be watched closely. Treasury Note Futures: Key Points: - Seasonality. - Debt ceiling decision approaching, media is still buzzing about Evergrande but the narrative to form around our trade should be Evergrande > FOMC > Debt ceiling > Then perhaps the US-China Trade Deal for the EOM October ICL. Strategies: - Unilateral: Bearish/short until proven otherwise. - Intraday: Volatility expected, look for bullish reversal signs. GLHF - DPT
SP:SPXShort
by UnknownUnicorn1043646
4
Time to take advantage of the ES_F correction?Greetings traders. Upon viewing the Mini S&P, it seems a few factors have lined up to provide a shorting opportunity! First we have a great test and rejection of structural resistance around the 4475 area which lined up with the retracement zone of the move from 4550 down to 4293. Since then, we have put in an nicely formed impulse that diverges well between wavs 3 and 5. On top of that, price has formed a bat pattern that lends weight to a reversal that seems to be already under way! I am going to try a short with a target zone between 4383 and 4362 with stops above 4440! Good luck!
CME_MINI:ES1!Short
by east-west_trading
2
ES_F 4H Death Cross & Head and ShouldersWe're not talking a real death cross here, but you did just get a 4H death cross on ES_F. Not to be taken lightly if it happens on the 1D chart, but i think a 4H death cross should be considered serious as well. Death Cross: www.investopedia.com I could see the picture of getting back to $4450 area to form head and shoulders and then sliding down from there. Just an objective lens. i trade level to level so doesnt matter to much to me personally.
CME_MINI:ESZ2021
by TradeSniper_com