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Es_f

On Target. Megaphone to Santa Rally. 4800 Before 2022? 📣This a follow-up to my last post. Strong seasonality along with heavy put buying has helped this market drift higher. JPM Hedge Collar drawdown seems less likely. As long as no shock factors happen, I see 4800 by year end. After this strong week, I see some consolidation happening before the next pushes up. First resistance is the ATH, I can see it blowing right past it on its way to 4800. Levels are previous resistance which now serve as support. Some stronger than others. When the market is moving like it is and traders keep thinking "this can't keep going higher". Put buying ends up increasing which causes market makers to buy more to hedge, in essence it adds fuel to the rocket fire. I can see this continuing after a brief cooldown period on Monday. Happy Holidays!
OANDA:SPX500USDLong
by tohsined
This weeks ES Update: THE RIPPER CAME TO RIP As we were on point last week if you followed, you made roughtly 212 points with 2 MAE. Nice job. For this week look for a short term top to form. Simple going into todays open and tomorrows RTH open: Beak above ATH and it runs more. Most likely we will see a pullback of at least 100 points by the end of this week to set up the November rally. I'm expecting an overshoot of the highs either on Monday or Tuesday (4570 area) to then hang around until Tuesday/Mid-Wednesday then we go down down down to reset all you people who use RSI, arts and crafts lines, etc. Drop below Fridays lows is where you see a drop to the 8-Day. Once we lose the 8D we start our descent to the 4450 area where we should see an overshoot to 4437 (remember that old POC we blew threw?)
CME_MINI:ES1!
by AlphaTradersInc
SPX500: Daily trend refuses to turn upThe daily timeframe has yet another short signal here, I've hedged my equities positions with a 1:1 $ESZ2021 short position near the NY closing time. Implications are we get yet another down swing, and a vicious one towards 4161.8 by Oct 25 or sooner, as long as price doesn't cross the 4368.89 level with ease, erasing the decline from the high two days ago. There's palpable fear in the market, and earnings season around the corner might keep investors up at night...The recent upswing in commodities, as shortages and supply chains woe pop left and right is making people nervous, add to these inflationary woes, the rising yields and rising dollar, and we get a perfect storm. I was expecting sell offs to slow down, since we had a strong buying wave, retracing the last liquidity shock by 75% in the $VIX chart, but the latest daily T@M signal here puts that notion in question. The currency market is making shock waves here, which is an unusual and new development, $USDJPY breaking out and rallying very strongly, could be followed up by deleveraging. I'm being cautious and hedging until things are clear again. My individual stock positions have solid charts and a fundamental back drop, so, it isn't worth it to sell them in this case. Let's see if bears get follow through here and the signal target is reached in time. Best of luck, Ivan.
FX:SPX500Short
by IvanLabrie
Stocks - SPX 1M Outlook - Trouble AheadBrief for SPX: - Weakness in price due to Quad Witching ahead of FOMC. Controversy in taper announcement as ECB has done. - Technical weakness in price, as it has fallen out of a rising wedge and as of yet, failed to make a quick recovery to ATHs as usual. Price closed in a DCF, indicating weakness in the dominant cycle. - Fears of real estate market collapse in China, with global implications (there are US counterparties involved). However, it has yet proven to be anything more than an isolated event. Cyclicality: - SPX facing headwinds of seasonal decline. - Expecting DCL in early October, a bit of a rally to a DCH and choppy markets in mid-late October, then a greater selloff into the end of October in the seasonal trough, where an ICL may be made into an end of year rally. Macro Layer: - Inflation expectations continue to decline globally: fred.stlouisfed.org - Yield curve continues to flatten, despite real rates getting a slight reprieve. - Dollar and gold showing risk-off. Debt Ceiling: (Opinion) - Interestingly, October Treasury Note Futures trading at a slight discount to September, or December. This indicates that there is some risk-off on the notes regarding the debt ceiling, but nobody expects the debt ceiling to not be raised. The US government had shut down for 35 days at the end of 2018 due to debt ceiling disagreements, so I think this is a legitimate concern and could be (a largely perception-based) catalyst for a sizable pullback. - If we take a look at 2018's correction, it began with the Sept Quad witching as well. A very similar setup to now, which is of concern: - 3700 is an area of Demand which would correspond to such a pullback, while 4290-4400 is the mid-year Pivot Range which should be watched closely. Treasury Note Futures: Key Points: - Seasonality. - Debt ceiling decision approaching, media is still buzzing about Evergrande but the narrative to form around our trade should be Evergrande > FOMC > Debt ceiling > Then perhaps the US-China Trade Deal for the EOM October ICL. Strategies: - Unilateral: Bearish/short until proven otherwise. - Intraday: Volatility expected, look for bullish reversal signs. GLHF - DPT
SP:SPXShort
by UnknownUnicorn1043646
4
Time to take advantage of the ES_F correction?Greetings traders. Upon viewing the Mini S&P, it seems a few factors have lined up to provide a shorting opportunity! First we have a great test and rejection of structural resistance around the 4475 area which lined up with the retracement zone of the move from 4550 down to 4293. Since then, we have put in an nicely formed impulse that diverges well between wavs 3 and 5. On top of that, price has formed a bat pattern that lends weight to a reversal that seems to be already under way! I am going to try a short with a target zone between 4383 and 4362 with stops above 4440! Good luck!
CME_MINI:ES1!Short
by east-west_trading
2
ES_F 4H Death Cross & Head and ShouldersWe're not talking a real death cross here, but you did just get a 4H death cross on ES_F. Not to be taken lightly if it happens on the 1D chart, but i think a 4H death cross should be considered serious as well. Death Cross: www.investopedia.com I could see the picture of getting back to $4450 area to form head and shoulders and then sliding down from there. Just an objective lens. i trade level to level so doesnt matter to much to me personally.
CME_MINI:ESZ2021
by TradeSniper_com
Elliott Wave View: S&P 500 Futures (ES_F) in Larger Degree CorreShort-term Elliott wave view in S&P 500 Futures (ES_F) suggests cycle from September 24, 2020 low has ended with wave ((3)) at 4549.74. The Index has turned lower in larger degree 7 swing in wave ((4)) to correct cycle from September 24, 2020 low. The first 3 swing WXY is currently in progress within wave (W) as a double three Elliott Wave structure. Down from wave ((3)), wave ((a)) ended at 4485.50 as an impulse. Wave (i) of ((a)) ended at 4519.25 and rally in wave (ii) of ((a)) ended at 4548. Index then resumed lower in wave (iii) of ((a)) towards 4492. Wave (iv) of ((a)) ended at 4514.75, and wave (v) of ((a)) ended at 4485.50. Correction in wave ((b)) ended at 4529.50 and Index has resumed lower in wave ((c)) towards 4434.50. This completed wave W of (W). Wave X rally is proposed complete at 4479.50. Index has resumed lower in wave Y. While rally fails below 4479.50, and more importantly below 4549.72, expect the Index to extend lower. Potential target lower is 100% – 123.6% Fibonacci extension from wave ((3)) peak towards 4337.1 – 4364.21. Near term, as far as pivot at 4549.2 high remains intact, expect rally to fail in 3, 7, or 11 swing for further downside.
CME_MINI:ES1!
by Elliottwave-Forecast
2
A correction unfolding in the S&P 500Greetings traders! Looks like the ES_F is unfolding into an ABC correction! Off the highs we can see 5 waves forming that would give us an A wave. Once this has terminated, I would be on the look out for a 3 wave correction to give us our B wave, then another 5 waves down to finish the C wave. This would give as wave 2 of a higher degree! The most likely targets would be between 50% and 61.8% of the entire swing, so be on the lookout for 5 waves moving down to between 4450 and 4425 in the mini S&P futures! Good luck!
CME_MINI:ES1!
by east-west_trading
NQ1!, Market is at an Inflection PointThe market finished the last week at an inflection level. The rising bottom, higher lows, is suggesting a potential breakout and a retest of the monthly R1 (15250 ish) level. That level may attract profit takers . Many are puzzled by a relentless upside move. Even smaller advances but still the more important part is no selling. My personal view is only technical. As a day trader with 1000s hours of screen time who watches the moves days in and days out on a tick level. Market is very technical and driven by machines(Algos) in auto-pilot mode most of the time. Their masters don't see a reason to override that behavior at the moment. Potential scenarios for the upcoming week: - A breakout and a retest of the monthly R1 and above - A breakout and return back into the consolidation - a fake out. That may lead to a retest of monthly pivot and even monthly S1. - Horizontal development - continued consolidation within the narrow range. This type of action would build even more energy for a strong move up or down. 08/15/2021 50 year anniversary of US dollar/gold divorce.
CME_MINI:NQ1!
by SviCapital
2
DXY LongChart with notes attached. Please note from a macro perspective, my thoughts to support the chart read, includes: 1. that the recent relative strength in the dollar and the drop in yields tells me that the financial markets might be pressed for liquidity. #dollars trapped in the system as a result of QE? Disinflation over secular inflation? Two messages the market might be sending in subtle ways, whilst everyone remains seduced by #EQ_F $SPX $DJI pushing all time highs. 2. To support this, $gold has been sensitive to moves in the #dollar and not the drop in yields, another sign of liquidity troubles perhaps. Other signals of a potential dash for cash include steep declines in bellwethers such as #lumber and #transport sector, eg, $DTX $XTN
TVC:DXYLong
by ElephantCapital
SPX approaching resistance. Will there be a pullback?Just like other index futures, S&P E-mini has been overextended on monthly chart for sometime. Key resistance level as marked on the chart is approaching. Don't know if it's top. Any resistance can become support. So observe price action and manage risk. Potential retracement/pullback/correction from current high and how much #ES_F will be back in price and time, a perspective: 3% - 4233 - June 24 - 15 days 5% - 4146 - June 21st - 18 days 10% - 3928 - Mar 29 - 102 days 15% - 3709 - Feb 1st - 158 days 20% - 3491 - Nov 6 - 245 days Know your support levels and have exit plan in place. Trade with right position sizing. Lately, flash crashes are being bought quickly. I think this time correction may start with market turning over slowly. Small red days initially. I might be wrong. Support and resistance levels as marked on the chart.
CME_MINI:ES1!Long
by trdnvestor