Elliott Wave View: S&P 500 Futures (ES_F) in Larger Degree CorreShort-term Elliott wave view in S&P 500 Futures (ES_F) suggests cycle from September 24, 2020 low has ended with wave ((3)) at 4549.74. The Index has turned lower in larger degree 7 swing in wave ((4)) to correct cycle from September 24, 2020 low. The first 3 swing WXY is currently in progress within wave (W) as a double three Elliott Wave structure. Down from wave ((3)), wave ((a)) ended at 4485.50 as an impulse. Wave (i) of ((a)) ended at 4519.25 and rally in wave (ii) of ((a)) ended at 4548. Index then resumed lower in wave (iii) of ((a)) towards 4492. Wave (iv) of ((a)) ended at 4514.75, and wave (v) of ((a)) ended at 4485.50.
Correction in wave ((b)) ended at 4529.50 and Index has resumed lower in wave ((c)) towards 4434.50. This completed wave W of (W). Wave X rally is proposed complete at 4479.50. Index has resumed lower in wave Y. While rally fails below 4479.50, and more importantly below 4549.72, expect the Index to extend lower. Potential target lower is 100% – 123.6% Fibonacci extension from wave ((3)) peak towards 4337.1 – 4364.21. Near term, as far as pivot at 4549.2 high remains intact, expect rally to fail in 3, 7, or 11 swing for further downside.
Es_f
A correction unfolding in the S&P 500Greetings traders! Looks like the ES_F is unfolding into an ABC correction! Off the highs we can see 5 waves forming that would give us an A wave. Once this has terminated, I would be on the look out for a 3 wave correction to give us our B wave, then another 5 waves down to finish the C wave. This would give as wave 2 of a higher degree! The most likely targets would be between 50% and 61.8% of the entire swing, so be on the lookout for 5 waves moving down to between 4450 and 4425 in the mini S&P futures! Good luck!
NQ1!, Market is at an Inflection PointThe market finished the last week at an inflection level. The rising bottom, higher lows, is suggesting a potential breakout and a retest of the monthly R1 (15250 ish) level. That level may attract profit takers .
Many are puzzled by a relentless upside move. Even smaller advances but still the more important part is no selling.
My personal view is only technical. As a day trader with 1000s hours of screen time who watches the moves days in and days out on a tick level. Market is very technical and driven by machines(Algos) in auto-pilot mode most of the time. Their masters don't see a reason to override that behavior at the moment.
Potential scenarios for the upcoming week:
- A breakout and a retest of the monthly R1 and above
- A breakout and return back into the consolidation - a fake out. That may lead to a retest of monthly pivot and even monthly S1.
- Horizontal development - continued consolidation within the narrow range. This type of action would build even more energy for a strong move up or down.
08/15/2021
50 year anniversary of US dollar/gold divorce.
What's next for SPX ? S&P E-mini futures pointing down. There could be bounce from 4305 level and then if there's rejection at 4345 or lower levels, can test support levels at 4290, 4280 and then finally 4264. 4230 is the last level for bulls to defend. If it reclaims 4348 and stays above, first green flag. Goes above, stays above 4370 confirmation. Until then bias on downside. Until then every bounce may be faded. Close below 4230, highly likely to test 4142
DXY LongChart with notes attached.
Please note from a macro perspective, my thoughts to support the chart read, includes:
1. that the recent relative strength in the dollar and the drop in yields tells me that the financial markets might be pressed for liquidity. #dollars trapped in the system as a result of QE? Disinflation over secular inflation? Two messages the market might be sending in subtle ways, whilst everyone remains seduced by #EQ_F $SPX $DJI pushing all time highs.
2. To support this, $gold has been sensitive to moves in the #dollar and not the drop in yields, another sign of liquidity troubles perhaps. Other signals of a potential dash for cash include steep declines in bellwethers such as #lumber and #transport sector, eg, $DTX $XTN
SPX approaching resistance. Will there be a pullback?Just like other index futures, S&P E-mini has been overextended on monthly chart for sometime. Key resistance level as marked on the chart is approaching. Don't know if it's top. Any resistance can become support. So observe price action and manage risk.
Potential retracement/pullback/correction from current high and how much #ES_F will be back in price and time, a perspective:
3% - 4233 - June 24 - 15 days
5% - 4146 - June 21st - 18 days
10% - 3928 - Mar 29 - 102 days
15% - 3709 - Feb 1st - 158 days
20% - 3491 - Nov 6 - 245 days
Know your support levels and have exit plan in place. Trade with right position sizing. Lately, flash crashes are being bought quickly. I think this time correction may start with market turning over slowly. Small red days initially. I might be wrong. Support and resistance levels as marked on the chart.
S&P 500 bulls under pressure Just like Nasdaq, bulls of S&P 500 are also under pressure. It rejected 4185 first and then unable to close above 4169 level. Now must hold 4129 level. Close below 4113 red flag. Trend line last line for bulls to defend. Then upside target still 4221. This week may decide direction for S&P 500. A cautious bullish bias.
S&P futures getting closer to upside resistance level. Upside target is still 4235 as long as 4113 holds. If 4163 fails, next bullish bounce can be seen from 4146 or 4135. Close below 4113 may indicate short term trend change unless we see a quick crash and bounce around 4050. On upside, 4188 is immediate resistance, once overcome can move towards 4235-4240.
Weekly Analysis for #SPX for 12-16 April 2021Trend: Daily/Weekly/Monthly: Up/Up/Up
#SPX at ATH; nobody can call a top, but YET, my most probable scenario is a drop - just for fun. What will be the trigger? I don't know. I need a sell from Globex open for it to happen.
3 scenarios:
1) Globex open, Powell's speech cause the rally to 4171-77 before a sell off in US session to end the day and we move down lower rest of week, to 3987-97.
2) Globex open and sell, we find support at 4077-99, before ending the week higher at 4171-77.
3) Globex open, gap up to some new highs 4135, but sold off, Powell's speech, cause further selling, we range mid of week, before ending at 3987-97.
3) is my most probable scenario to kill everyone.