Es_f
02/03 ES_F LevelsJust sharing my areas that I'm willing to do business at.
What you do with them, that's up to you.
Orderflow | Market Profile
Futures went into megaphone strategy — how to playAt the beginning of the week, $ES_F established few trendlines creating a big probability for the start of the megaphone pattern, and we rocked it in the previous idea:
We will be looking at the bottom of the BB channel and allow it to extend a little bit to the downside whereas we know MMs like to kill stop-loss positions before bumping futures back into the game.
Watch the levels around 3690 for the long position until mid-bb or a little bit above it to the previous Fib column which yet still in play.
Also, be aware of rising VIX which can incur some down-pressure to the equities, however yet Fed promised to buy as long as investors are at risk.
Invalidation probably at 3670, however practical bottom 3640
SPY perspectives - two scenariosWe are moving into a more and more tight price action as we are in the end of the wedge now and with the rise of volumes we see some heighten activity in trading.
RSI and MACD divergence are still showing divergence with the price and RSI is almost below 50. MACD has a bearish crossing and the histogram is going negative.
Two possible scenarios are forming now. We have a bullish one that is currently forming as we've jumped from the internal support around 373 price zone.
Failing to continue the movement back inside the uptrend we may see a fall below 373 and move towards the first support zone at 360.
S&P E-mini Futures - Expecting sideways or upside for this week I don't believe the S&P composite index will continue dropping without more upside first. This is a short-term prediction and is also a reason why I believe bitcoin will bounce short term, as well.
Projected target path (blue line) probably won't happen, it's there for spectacle.
Buying Weakness In An Underlying UptrendUsing this weakness and the major indices trying to dig in here to look for a move back towards the top of their range. Using this failed breakdown on the 5-minute chart to define my risk and as a catalyst to get some upside going.
$ES_F/$SPY (UPDATE) - Some Adjustments to Weekly ChartCouple of adjustments to weekly chart:
The low established today requires me to update my fibonacci low and this establishes new up/down targets. 👇
🎯1 - recap old hi 3860
🎯2 - 3879
🎯3 - 3904
🔑: 3836
⚠️: Further downside comes below 3806.
Leave some feedback below if you have any!
And don't forget to like and follow if you'd like more 👍
$ES_F/$SPY - Thoughts for this Week & BeyondSome thoughts on $SPY/$ES_F:
The right-hand chart consists of 1month candles. I took the range of the 08 crash and extended it a few times - each box represents a full 100% extension.
November 2020 gave us what may considered to be a "blow-off top" - I saw this as an opportunity to extrapolate the uptrend established in 09. Whether or not this continues to be fruitful is yet to be seen.
📈 I remain bullish with a de-facto upside trigger of $ES_F 3860
This targets: 3872 , 3879 , 3889 , and 3906 .
Extended target 3998
📉 Downside trigger is $ES_F 3806
This targets: 3784.50 , 3766.75 , 3743.50 , 3738
🔑 Takeaways here:
We are nearing a pretty significant resistance region of $ES_F 3889-3998. It would be wise to de-leverage and see how we handle it before proceeding.
That being said, outlook for the immediate term is positive.
Leave some feedback below if you have any!
And don't forget to like and follow if you'd like more 👍
Disparity Between Indices ContinuesIn this video, I discuss the different performance between leaders like the Russell 2000 + Nikkei 225 and laggards like the S&P 500 and German DAX, as well as what's driving it. I also update my thesis on the upside breakout on the S&P 500 and how I'm looking to trade it if/when we get a move above 3815-3817.
Nikkei 225 To Lead Global Equities Higher?The Nikkei 225 continues to show relative strength and has one of the cleanest absolute trends of the global indices I track. It's already breaking out ahead of the US and European indices, which suggests to me we could see them follow it higher in the next day or two. If you're trading the equity indices --- keep your eye on the Nikkei 225 for clues.
Breakout Or Fakeout?The S&P 500 futures are trying to get above the top of their range at 3804. The last hourly candle closed above it and we're seeing relative strength from the Russell 2000, Nikkei 225, and other indices here in the US and around the globe. Testing the waters here if I can get an entry at 3805 and look for upside towards 3855 over the coming hours/days. My stop is below that hourly candle's low, which also corresponds with the VWAP for the session at 3795. Reward/risk is 5:1 and sizing this risk at roughly .30% of the portfolio...so relatively small given two straight days of trading losses.
$SPY - Thoughts for week of 1/11-1/15Still leaning bullish:
TG1 🎯: 3848
TG2 🎯: 3894
Activity below friday's close of 3823 ⏱️ could open up a retracement to:
📉1: 3806
📉2: 3774
📊3: 3727 (I would expect strong buying activity here)
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Can S&P Futures Break 3804?Looking for some continuation of the rally since the cash open. Need to see a breakout above 3804 to confirm that, so I've got a buy stop in above that level with a stop just below the recent low and a target of 3820. If it doesn't trigger, all good. Will wait for a cleaner setup to develop. Max position size based on the current reward/risk is 6 contracts, but still trading small on my first day and waiting until my confidence is up a bit before moving to full-sized positions.
07/01/2021 $SPX Up up and awayBuying continues with TSLA going to ATH, making Elon the richest man. At this rate, this wealth will be double that of Bezos very soon. And today is #NFP, so anything is possible but for now, difficult to call the top.
Bias is up above 3809-12.
Watch 3828.2 for a touch just before European open. If rejected, look for shorts to bias zone for possible bounce to 3828.2, 3851..9.
Break of bias zone, 3781.4-3790.2 is next support, followed by 3766.7 and 3751.4. IMO 3766.7 is good level to touch today. But yes, who am I to call a top?
21/12/2020 $SPX Everyone is expecting a Santa rallyHave fun. We have a gap up and a strong sell down. This is bearish.
My bias zone is at 3718.5-27.25. Above R are 3740.5 and 3747.75. Strong R zone at 3747.75, expecting it to cap high of WEEK.
Price now at 3700, my 1st support level. Break this and we will see 3688.5 (strong S zone) and 3680.75. Below this are 3654-55.75 and 3635.25 should cap low of day.
ES_F is about to crashThere are no more higher targets for me. Here are possible lower targets.
Disclaimer: This is not financial and investment advice
Stay safe, trade safe.
Atilla Yurtseven
07/12/2020 #SPX500 Bullish bullish bullishWhat's new? Nothing matters as long as liquidity is there
But price is over-extended (nothing new too) and market structure is weak.
Thus my blue bias zone is not low but high.
Bullish above 3706. Targeting 3720, 3729 and 3740.1 should cap high of day. 3761 is a super strong higher level R.
Below 3697 be cautiously bullish, targeting 3687-89. If zone breaks, 3677, 3662.7, 3652.3-54, 3637.5 are the levels below. 3630 should cap low of day and below 3624 is another support.
If you don't want to short, just go long as any of the support zones. 3677 should be the stronger one.
