16/02/2021 #SPX #ES_F $SPY 300pts Up, Then?US was closed yesterday, so was Asian session. Price opened and rallied and then ranged the whole time yesterday. We are at strong resistance and we are over-extended. Price hit my 3961.9 level and is coming down. On break of 3951, look for re-test of 3935 level. Since we went higher and get rejected for a move lower, might signal near term top. Break of 3951 can bring 3909.
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SPX Topping?S&P futures hit the line that crosses highs since November and made a large outside day today (engulfed the prior 2 days). The day ended with a doji (not perfect but close enough). The trendline and candlestick combination suggest that this could be a top of sorts. View scandinavianmarkets.com for more commentary.
Futures went into megaphone strategy — how to playAt the beginning of the week, $ES_F established few trendlines creating a big probability for the start of the megaphone pattern, and we rocked it in the previous idea:
We will be looking at the bottom of the BB channel and allow it to extend a little bit to the downside whereas we know MMs like to kill stop-loss positions before bumping futures back into the game.
Watch the levels around 3690 for the long position until mid-bb or a little bit above it to the previous Fib column which yet still in play.
Also, be aware of rising VIX which can incur some down-pressure to the equities, however yet Fed promised to buy as long as investors are at risk.
Invalidation probably at 3670, however practical bottom 3640
SPY perspectives - two scenariosWe are moving into a more and more tight price action as we are in the end of the wedge now and with the rise of volumes we see some heighten activity in trading.
RSI and MACD divergence are still showing divergence with the price and RSI is almost below 50. MACD has a bearish crossing and the histogram is going negative.
Two possible scenarios are forming now. We have a bullish one that is currently forming as we've jumped from the internal support around 373 price zone.
Failing to continue the movement back inside the uptrend we may see a fall below 373 and move towards the first support zone at 360.
S&P E-mini Futures - Expecting sideways or upside for this week I don't believe the S&P composite index will continue dropping without more upside first. This is a short-term prediction and is also a reason why I believe bitcoin will bounce short term, as well.
Projected target path (blue line) probably won't happen, it's there for spectacle.
$ES_F/$SPY (UPDATE) - Some Adjustments to Weekly ChartCouple of adjustments to weekly chart:
The low established today requires me to update my fibonacci low and this establishes new up/down targets. 👇
🎯1 - recap old hi 3860
🎯2 - 3879
🎯3 - 3904
🔑: 3836
⚠️: Further downside comes below 3806.
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$ES_F/$SPY - Thoughts for this Week & BeyondSome thoughts on $SPY/$ES_F:
The right-hand chart consists of 1month candles. I took the range of the 08 crash and extended it a few times - each box represents a full 100% extension.
November 2020 gave us what may considered to be a "blow-off top" - I saw this as an opportunity to extrapolate the uptrend established in 09. Whether or not this continues to be fruitful is yet to be seen.
📈 I remain bullish with a de-facto upside trigger of $ES_F 3860
This targets: 3872 , 3879 , 3889 , and 3906 .
Extended target 3998
📉 Downside trigger is $ES_F 3806
This targets: 3784.50 , 3766.75 , 3743.50 , 3738
🔑 Takeaways here:
We are nearing a pretty significant resistance region of $ES_F 3889-3998. It would be wise to de-leverage and see how we handle it before proceeding.
That being said, outlook for the immediate term is positive.
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Disparity Between Indices ContinuesIn this video, I discuss the different performance between leaders like the Russell 2000 + Nikkei 225 and laggards like the S&P 500 and German DAX, as well as what's driving it. I also update my thesis on the upside breakout on the S&P 500 and how I'm looking to trade it if/when we get a move above 3815-3817.
Nikkei 225 To Lead Global Equities Higher?The Nikkei 225 continues to show relative strength and has one of the cleanest absolute trends of the global indices I track. It's already breaking out ahead of the US and European indices, which suggests to me we could see them follow it higher in the next day or two. If you're trading the equity indices --- keep your eye on the Nikkei 225 for clues.
Breakout Or Fakeout?The S&P 500 futures are trying to get above the top of their range at 3804. The last hourly candle closed above it and we're seeing relative strength from the Russell 2000, Nikkei 225, and other indices here in the US and around the globe. Testing the waters here if I can get an entry at 3805 and look for upside towards 3855 over the coming hours/days. My stop is below that hourly candle's low, which also corresponds with the VWAP for the session at 3795. Reward/risk is 5:1 and sizing this risk at roughly .30% of the portfolio...so relatively small given two straight days of trading losses.