S&P500 Futures ES_F - Flipped the breakerES_F defying all odds even in the face of enormous p/e and peg valuations. I find it a bit concerning that the market is pricing in pretty much zero expectations of growth loss for the major S&P 500 companies and I fully am watching for a rug pull if fundamentals ever catch-up with reality. Headwinds of decreased productivity from social distancing, decreased globalization, decreased GDP and consumer spending, increased cost, potential increase corporate taxes to fund deficit, will cause ripple effects not seen in the market.
Regardless, as a price action trader all i see is bullishness. Shorts are being squeezed and FOMO is happening. From a price action stand point, we bounced strong from the bullish OB after tapping the .618 range. I previously shorted the bearish breaker and we’ve broken past it and turned it into support. Expect an easy test of recent highs and likely a push past to squeeze out liquidity. I’ll be watching above $3k for any reversal signs and if we start to get to a cycle market top. Keep an eye out on the daily 200MA.
Long for now. Matches the thesis I’ve published regarding NQ also pushing to fill the gap.
Es_f
ES: Cycles argue for a downturn next weekLooking at the cycle from the high to the primary low in February, we can see that if we extend the cycle turns they do a pretty good job at picking inflection points. Furthermore if we take the timespan from the high in January to the low on 23rd March (depicted in orange cycles on top) we can see that the length of time for the impulse lower is almost exactly equal to the length of time of this correction higher from the March 23rd lows. Very good symmetry arguing that we have seen the interim high and that ES should be heading lower into the next cycle turn in Mid May.
ES: It's time to wake up (short)The S&P has gone on a face ripping rally since the lows in late March. This has led a lot of investors to become complacent with the mistaken belief that the Fed will save them. They are gravely mistaken and next week should kick off some vicious selling. My target is 2300.
Starting to form the turnThought today we were breaking the turn around pattern by moving up early in the day. Well that got changed around when the announcement of the failed GILD treatment came out. We are still holding the pattern as of now. It looks like we could see 2714-15 first, then 2640 to hit that 38% fib retracement. Wondering if we will bounce around that area for a while until something comes out to redirect us. 🤔
SPY This Duck is looking less and less like a DuckFollow up to my post over the weekend.
Further support that the ABC corrective wave has become a 5 Wave Impulse. Approx target 3110-3130
(I'm just looking the Elliott rules up online as I go, so if I'm misinterpreting them feel free to call me a jackass)
Short ESThe S&P has gone on a monster rally since the March 23rd lows. It has done a great job of convincing everyone that life is going back to normal. This is not the case. It has retraced 50% of the decline and this is a great spot to short it as I believe we will turn down next week to retest (and possibly break the lows) sometime in May.
SPX Analog Pivot High This is an analog with a stretched out 1987. The analog is anchored with the final leg up from 1/31 to 2/19. Today is a major pivot high day according to the analog. This obviously lines up with the indices trading into their respective resistance levels. Whether it’s a higher low, re-test, or lower low, the next major low pivot is 5/14. TVC:SPX AMEX:SPY
2100 S&P is too obvious to holdAnyone watching current price action for a sensible potential long entry is looking at 2100 and will likely bid the entire zone if we reach there, meaning it will certainly breakdown. I'll be watching for a swing to the clean lows ~1800 at least, nobody knows when this will end.
With the current situation with the virus, I think this move will definitely be sustained until more significant positive developments.
DM for access to private strategy, price is 0.005 BTC
Elliott Wave View: S&P Futures ($ES_F) Downside TargetShort term Elliott Wave view in E-mini S&P 500 (ES_F) suggests the Index ended the cycle up from June 3, 2019 low in wave ((3)) at 3397.50 high. The index is correcting that cycle in wave ((4)) as a double correction. Wave A of (W) ended at 3339.50 low. The bounce in wave B ended at 3375 high. It then resumed lower in wave C, which ended at 3213.75 low. The index then bounced higher in wave (X) and ended at 3261.50 high.
Down from wave (X) high, the index resumed lower in wave A of (Y) and ended at 3091 low. The internal subdivision of wave A unfolded as a 5 waves impulse Elliott Wave structure. Wave ((i)) ended at 3220.25 low. It then bounced in wave ((ii)) and ended at 3247.25 high. From there, wave ((iii)) extended lower and ended at 3117.25 low and wave ((iv)) bounce ended at 3158.50 high. The index then resumed lower and ended wave ((v)) at 3091 low. Up from wave A low, wave B bounced higher and ended at 3182 high. Currently, the index is continuing lower in wave C of (Y). Wave ((i)) remains in progress followed by a bounce in wave ((ii)) later. While below 3261.50 high, the bounce in 3,7, or 11 swings is expected to fail. The index can see more downside to complete wave ((4)) correction before upside resumes.