"Trade wars are easy to win" part 2Just a bunch of big caps are protected from the trade war environment .. which is not healthy in the long run, adding the fact that this is a growth cycle... we have a bull run made of only a few big cap growth stocks with a good international revenue exposure outperforming the market in the US and abroad...
Es_f
$ES_F rising wedge continues As long as this rising wedge holds, - staying long stocks into earnings this week. If the wedge breaks, there is a short term short but the wedge in this environment often widens and expands into a cup and handle or ascending triangle and would look for a dip buy UNLESS earnings season majority of stocks are missing and bad data this week. Must
Monitor it closely
B waveHere is the B wave that started from Dec of last year. A WXY structure looks to be forming. W is a zigzag followed by a X wave then a Y wave. In the diagram Y is a triangle but this could possibly be a flat. Look for a top early next week that will then test the 200 Day SMA or slightly above. Then it becomes tricky, either we test test the upper trendline one more time to form the e leg of the triangle in late November or if Y is a flat after topping early next week we will bounce from the 200 day and form a 2 and then a collapse down into the 3rd wave in December.
Either way, we are nearing the end of the wedge between the 200 day and the the upper trendline formed from all the recent ATHs. Look for an explosion of volatility EOY and beginning of next year.
SPX to push higher highs SPX bears have tried to break these levels for a very very long time. I expect the full support of the Federal Reserve Bank and its repos to be behind this one. Earnings for q3 2019 are going to be not as bad as feared for the most part. I'm looking to buy on a breakout retest of the old highs - no positions for me otherwise
Slashing through support levelsAfter failing to breakout, $ES_F SPX futures slashing through support areas, leaving gaps. The declining RSI in my previous post appears to have been a key sign that this move was not going to hold.
While the market is oversold near term, the veracity of the move shouldn't be ignored. Breakout failures in the past have not been kind to markets. While there may be some retracement back to these support levels, i'd consider that to be a offloading/shorting opportunity as the market outlook seems grim at the moment. Futures at the moment seem to signal further move to the downside, but we shall see if there's any positive development overnight.
"Don't tell me what to buy, tell me when to buy it."Tyler Jenk's idea of #Consensio taught me to be pay attention to the 2,7, and 30 week moving averages to identify short, intermediate, and long-term trends. These averages are used to approximate the standard daily averages of 20/50/200 onto a weekly chart. The weekly closes are more important than the noise with each candle.
#Consensio tells me to be cautious here and have some CASH available for a potential buying opportunity if price stays above the blue line on this dip.
Peter Brandt, Aksel Kibar, and Ian McMillan's charts have taught me to look for buying opportunities in a daily breakout launched from a large weekly horizontal pattern (often retested, but sometimes not).
I see this large area of "consolidation at the top" as a garbage pattern, but I believe the spirit of it to be an ascending triangle. It's just a very abused ascending triangle. The breakout was short and the retest has been steep but the blue line has recently turned back upward after some hesitation and price is still above it.
To me, finding a local bottom above the 200 would be a signal to buy anything with a pulse that isn't nailed down.
SPY: 292 broken into no man's land... 289.7 likely tomorrowAMEX:SPY
6/25 (update) - broke through 292 into no man's land... it could further go down to 289.7 area or if it open higher >291 i may go sideway. If I was a betting man, I'd say it would gap down b/c the close was below today's POC.
6/21 (original post) - Price closed below POC of the day on Friday. Thin order flow between 293 and 294. If 294 is held, target is 304. We are in uncharted territory from here now. If 294 is broken, next major support at 292.25
SPY: Gann Analysis on Daily ChartAMEX:SPY
Overlay of 4 different gann fan at recent peaks and lows since Q1 2019. The yellow triangle seems to be the area that it needs to break through in order to keep the bullish trend going.
Fall below the bottom of the triangle (~290) would indicate a reversal of recent bullish trend in the short term with a target of 50 MA around 287.
Updated countThis move off the May 31st lows is very powerful and I don't think it's still correction of our W wave but the start of the Y wave. The correction for the W wave, is the X that ended on May 31st. Given the length of this correction from last September, this is most likely a primary wave 4 we are in (or 4th wave correction since rally from 08' lows). We are in Y of B here and almost completed a. Upside target changed to ~3050, should get choppy up there though. We are going way too fast up for this to be a significant top.
The medium term picture has changed though and is no longer a regular flat but an expanded flat because we are making new ATHs, and we could drop to 2200 by the end of the year.
The alternative which is unlikely is that this is a wave 3 of some degree.
E-Mini 500 BullishA very interesting week last week for the ES! (E-Mini S&P 500)
What with the tweets, corporate earnings and the continued trade war!
Uncertainty still prevails. This should be another interesting week. A lot of opportunity and I am expecting a considerable amount of volatility.
There is much in the way of scheduled news events.
Sunday open could be either be a gap down or an inside or a bounce to the upside.
Price action and closed is signalling an upside. However, there is chance that price will want to test Friday low and naked POC at 2814.25 before a move up.
Also of note is that price touched 2827.00 a 0.786 Fib
A confirmation for a bullish day we should see:
1. Price take out Friday’s high
2. Price closing above VWAP
3. Value area must remain in upper area of Friday’s VA or more
4. POC must be equal or above Friday’s